1.
Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
State of Search 2019
The death of the click. The rise of untrackable web marketing.
And the shifts search marketers must make.

2.
Today, I’m Going to Tell You
Six Stories…

3.
A Story About How
We Use the Web…

4.
2012… Mobile is Cannibalizing Desktop
1981… Video Killed the Radio Star
2001… Computers Will Be the Death of TV
2019… Voice Search Will Destroy Web Search
2010… Apps Will Make Websites Redundant

5.
Edison Research, 2018

6.
eMarketer, 2019

7.
Bond Internet Trends, 2019

8.
StatCounter Mobile vs. Desktop, 2012-2019

9.
Hours Spent on Digital Devices / Day (USA)
Bond Internet Trends, 2019

10.
TheWebMaster, 2019

11.
Does Voice Search Change Anything?
Not
Really.

12.
Do Voice Answers Change Anything?
Yes!
“That is called the
Achilles Tendon.”

13.
Google Search in Browsers is Plateauing…
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
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U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only)
Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile

14.
• Desktop devices average ~800
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Mobile devices averaged ~300
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Slight decrease in mobile
browser pageviews over time
(probably cannibalized by apps)
• In March 2019, users viewed
2,350 unique pages on desktop
and 680 unique pages on
mobile (monthly counts in the
graph count multiple visits to
the same URL per month as 1)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Jan-16
M
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M
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Jul-16
Sep-16
N
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Jan-17
M
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Avg.#ofPageViews
Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month
Mobile Desktop
Browser-Based Web Use Is Still At All-Time Highs

15.
But with Mobile App Use
Factored In, Web Search &
Web Traffic Continues to Grow

16.
Google Controls the
Overwhelming
Majority of Web
Traffic ReferralsGoogle, 66.0%Facebook,
5.1%
YouTube, 3.9%
Bing, 3.9%
Yahoo, 3.5%
Twitter, 2.1%
Amazon, 2.0%
Reddit, 1.9%
Wikipedia, 1.6%
Gmail, 1.0%
DuckDuckGo, 1.0%
Rest of Top
250, 7.9%
%ofReferralVisitsSentByTop250Referrers,June2019
(250M+browserreferrals,10M+mobile&desktopdevices)

17.
12 Years… Desktop Barely Shrank While Mobile Grew
40 Years… Video Grew, But Didn’t Kill Radio
20 Years… TV’s Getting Watched More, in More Places
5 Years… Despite Voice, Web Search Keeps Growing
Over the Last...
9 Years… Websites Dominate Apps (for anyone outside the top 25 apps)

18.
How Does This Impact Me?

19.
What Evolving Web Use Means for Marketers:
2: Considering a big investment in voice answer SEO? It’s
probably too early; other tactics will likely have better ROI.
1: Both mobile and desktop are still big; don’t ignore either.
3: Web-based video, podcasts, and websites all continue to
be excellent investments… Mobile apps not so much.

20.
A Story About
Congress…

21.
Congressional Hearing Notes, 12/11/2018

22.
Organic Clicks: 41.45%
Paid Clicks: 3.58%
Alphabet’s Clicks: 6.01%
Zero-Clicks: 48.96%
Q1 2019 Google
Searches that result in:

23.
In 2019 Google’s sending ~20% fewer organic
clicks via browser searches than 2016.

24.
Did Google’s Mobile Search
App Make Up for That?
Probably Yes…

25.
43.9% 44.3% 45.8% 46.0% 46.0% 47.5% 48.0% 47.8% 47.5% 47.7% 48.2% 48.8% 49.0% 49.7%
54.0% 53.6% 51.7% 51.3% 51.5% 49.8% 49.0% 48.6% 49.0% 48.4% 48.1% 47.3% 47.4% 46.1%
2.10% 2.18% 2.46% 2.67% 2.47% 2.73% 3.03% 3.59% 3.58% 3.92% 3.65% 3.95% 3.69% 4.14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19
Google Search CTRs & Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019, USA)
Zero-Click Searches Searches w/ Organic Clicks Searches w/ Ad Clicks
Google in 2016: 26 organic clicks to every 1 paid clickGoogle in 2019: 11 organic clicks to every 1 paid click

26.
April 2019
June 2019

27.
48.73% 48.89% 49.25% 49.39% 49.56% 50.33%
47.57% 47.55% 46.95% 46.81% 46.23% 45.25%
3.70% 3.56% 3.80% 3.80% 4.21% 4.42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan 2019 Feb 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019
Google Search CTRs & Zero-Click Searches (2019, USA)
Zero-Click Searches Searches w/ Organic Clicks Searches w/ Ad Clicks
+16% Ad CTR
April-June

28.
Via SparkToro, 2019

29.
Via NYTimes, 2013 and The American Prospect, July 2019

30.
Via Forbes, July 2019 and The Verge, Sept. 2019

31.
How Does This Impact Me?

32.
What Google’s Behavior Means for Marketers
2: Organic CTR is still high, but those who can benefit from
answering zero-click searches will be a step ahead.
1: Paid CTR has risen but (if history’s a guide) will slowly
decline until Google’s next visual SERP change.
3: The 2020 Democratic Primary and US General Election
will likely have a major impact on Google’s future.

33.
A Story About
On-SERP SEO…

34.
Via SocialMediaExaminer

35.
“I rank #3 for social media; why don’t I get more traffic!?”

36.
SocialMediaExaminer.com’s Search Console

37.
They’re Not Alone…
Via Lily Ray on Twitter, June 2019

38.
Zero-Click Searches

39.
48.73% 48.89% 49.25% 49.39% 49.56% 50.33%
47.57% 47.55% 46.95% 46.81% 46.23% 45.25%
3.70% 3.56% 3.80% 3.80% 4.21% 4.42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan 2019 Feb 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019
Google Search CTRs & Zero-Click Searches (2019, USA)
Zero-Click Searches Searches w/ Organic Clicks Searches w/ Ad Clicks
Crossed 50% for the
first time in June

40.
Ten blue links,
but hard to
earn ROI

41.
Featured snippet,
but clear path to ROI

42.
How Does This Impact Me?

43.
The Zero-Click Decision Tree
Can I benefit from
ranking for this
query even
without traffic?
Optimize for
KWs that send
traffic instead
YesNo
Will my team or client
give credit for rankings
that don’t send traffic?
Yes
No
Invest in On-
SERP SEO!

44.
The Structured Data Decision Tree
Will I gain or lose value
from adding structured
data that Google may
use in an answer box?
Add the
structured data
and optimize
for rankings!
LoseGain
Would I rather have
the answer box, or
cede it to a competitor
to focus on other KWs?
Cede
Have
Find other KW
opportunities

45.
A Story About
Tragedy…

46.
Via The Guardian, July 2019

47.
Via Washington Post

48.
Via Sistrix US data

49.
Has the right links?
Best satisfies searchers?
Has the best on-page SEO?
Has the most accurate info?
Does this rank because it:
Structures information best?
These ranking factors
appear to be on the rise
Comes from a trusted source?

50.
From Links, Clicks, & Keywords to
Accuracy & Comprehensiveness

51.
“There’s no right
(or particularly
dangerous)
answer”
“The wrong answer
could cause serious
harm”
Weighting of correctness, authority, & comprehensiveness
in Google’s ranking algorithm
Low High
“are vaccines safe”
“homeopathic
cancer cures”
“best star
wars movie”
“capybara
memes”

52.
How Does This Impact Me?

53.
What if authority, accuracy,
and comprehensiveness
come to your SERPs?

54.
What Google’s Evolving Algo Means for Marketers
2: Improving content accuracy (up-to-date, comprehensive,
correct) may boost rankings and earn featured snippets.
1: Establishing your site as an authority and earning links from
existing authorities could have immense ranking benefits.
3: Being at the cutting edge of your topic could adversely affect
rankings if your info doesn’t match authoritative consensus.

55.
A Story About
Who Gets Credit…

56.
Via The Outline, 2017

57.
Via WSJ, 2019

58.
R E D H A N D E D

59.
A week after the story,
Google changed how they
cited lyrics sources

60.
18 months ago, they
made a similar change
to image search links

61.
They added links to Knowledge Panels
and images in featured snippets

62.
How Does This Impact Me?

63.
What Citation/Credit Loss Means for Marketers:
2: The Justice Dept. battle means investigators will seek
examples of Google’s actions harming businesses; there’s
never been a better time to be vocal.
1: If Google is using your work without crediting your site,
the press can be a powerful ally.
3: When Google returns link credit to SERPs, traffic
opportunity rises (e.g. Images are high potential again)

64.
A Story About
Engagement…

65.
Goodbye Organic Reach…
Via RivalIQ 2019

66.
Via RivalIQ 2019

67.
Hello Viral Content
Via Brookings Institute

68.
If SEO or Content is My Focus…
Why Should I Care About Social Reach?
What
journalists
write about.
Content that earns traction
on Twitter, Instagram,
YouTube, Reddit, and (to a
lesser extent) Facebook &
LinkedIn
What the
press cites.
What tends
to rank in
Google.
What gets
searched-for.
What
earns
links.
What
bloggers
write about.
What high
influence
accounts
amplify.

69.
Via Twitter

70.
Tweet the algo thinks is
most likely to engage me
What the algo thinks is next
most likely to engage me
3rd most likely, etc.

71.
Instagram Works
the Same Way
IG’s algo thinks this video
will keep me watching
It thinks these images will
keep me in the app

72.
It’s How YouTube Decides What’s Up Next

73.
It’s How Facebook Decides The Feed
Via Arieh Kovler, June 2019

74.
Engagement, Not Amplification,
Powers Social Reach Now

75.
Social platforms’ ML algorithms are
trained to create addiction based on
engagement.
That can have some nasty side effects.

76.
Delightful, fun,
and entertaining…
But wonderful comments like
these don’t create addiction…

77.
High controversy
content, however…
Creates the engagement
and addiction that fuels the
learning systems’ targets

78.
Social Reach in 2014:
Retweets by highly followed accounts
Shares by accounts with many friends/fans
Large number of likes
Shares by well-connected accounts
Views, embeds, links, keywords

79.
Social Reach in 2019:
Whatever signals the
machine learning
system has found to
correlate strongly
with engagement,
return visits, and
future usage.

80.
Social Reach in 2019:
Comments & clicks > RTs & Likes
Comments & messages > Shares
Comments > Likes
Comments & messages > Shares & Likes
Time watched > Views

81.
How Does This Impact Me?

82.
Branded search demand for your content
Links from high-authority sources without outreach
Amplification and traffic from link likely audiences
Diversity of traffic (social, referral, direct, etc)
If you want to earn…
Subscribers who want to receive your content

83.
You Need to Win on Social Platforms:
1: Play to the algorithms’ bias
for on-site engagement
2: Use high-engagement streaks
to earn algorithmic reputation
3: Spend engagement streaks to
earn visits & email subscribers

84.
The Future of
Search Marketing

85.
A Return to Less-Trackable Marketing
Via Simo Ahava and Reuters
On-SERP SEO

86.
A Vastly Bigger Industry
634,075 LinkedIn Profiles with “SEO” in their
job title or description
2.976M LinkedIn Profiles with “SEO” in their job
title or description (470% increase)
2015:
2019:

87.
More Competition and Sophistication
Via Backlinko

88.
More Activity, But Fewer Organic Clicks
50.33%
45.25%
4.42%
Google Search Click-Through Rates
(browser-based queries, June 2019, USA)
Zero-Click Searches
Searches w/ Organic Clicks
Searches w/ Ad Clicks

89.
A Shift in Ranking Signals
Link Quantity
Brand Authority
Keyword Matching
Intent Matching
Comprehensiveness
Content Accuracy
User/Usage Signals
Inbound Anchor Text
Content Structure
2014 2019
Link Quantity
Brand Authority
Keyword Matching
Intent Matching
Comprehensiveness
Content Accuracy
User/Usage Signals
Inbound Anchor Text
Content Structure

90.
Ever-Changing Tactical Effectiveness

91.
You Can Do It.

92.
Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Thank You!