IDATE DigiWorld -FTTx markets public - Roland MONTAGNE

World FTTx markets
Focus on FTTH in Europe and place of the UK
NICC Open Forum 2017 – London, November 8th 2017
 Contact
Roland MONTAGNE
Principle Analyst
Director DigiWorld Institute UK
r.montagne@idate.org

www.idate.org © IDATE DigiWorld 2017 – p. 2
1. FTTx Worldwide Key Trends
2. Major Players Worldwide
3. FTTH in Europe
4. FTTH: zones of growth for the future?
5. Drivers for Fibre: The Gigabit Race, Short Latency and 4K / 8K !
6. Conclusion: Place of the UK?
Agenda

www.idate.org
1. FTTx Worldwide Key Trends
World FTTx markets

FTTx Worldwide key trends
> Superfast technologies(1) represented nearly 48% of
broadband access subscriptions at end 2016, 9 points more
than one year before.
> FTTH/B is still the leading superfast broadband solution, far
ahead of FTTx/D3.0, followed by VDSL
FTTH/B represented 68% of FTTx subscriptions at end 2016. Growth of
FTTH/B subscriptions will continue until 2021.
FTTx/D3.0 represented at end 2016, 20% of FTTx subscriptions. After two
years of significant growth, proportion of FTTx/D3.0 on Superfast
Broadband is levelling off.
VDSL, for its part, lagged behind, representing 12% of subscriptions at
June 2016 . This proportion is quite stable.
> The regional breakdown is very heterogeneous
No huge changes in the geographical predominance of APAC on the
FTTH/B market.
FTTH/B is also the main deployed technology in MENA. It was the case
also in LATAM, but now it is meeting stronger competition from VDSL
technologies in the region (especially in Brazil).
FTTx/D3.0 is still dominant in North America and is by and large growing
more rapidly than other technologies.
There is considerable space for VDSL and other copper based
technologies such as G.Fast in Europe, where incumbents still wish to
optimise their copper networks.
(1) For the definition of superfast platforms we have considered here three main architectures: FTTH/B,
FTTN and FTTx/D3.0 deployed by cable operators
Breakdown of superfast broadband technologies, as of December 2016
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, World FTTx market, August 2017

Leading countries, by FTTx solutions at December 2016
> China , leader on worldwide FTTH/B market
Until end-2012, Japan was the most advanced FTTH/B market in the world.
Chinese players are increasingly focused on FTTH/B and, as the largest country in
the world, it will remain the leading market for the near future. The number of
FTTH/B subscribers has already significantly risen since 2014.
China and Japan are followed by Russia, which is ahead of South Korea, while the
USA is ranked 5th worldwide.
Elsewhere in the world it is worth noting that FTTH/B is the only architecture
deployed, such as in Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) or the MENA region.
> Strong competition from VDSL technologies in North America,
Europe and also in LATAM
The promise of VDSL-based technologies has convinced several European
incumbents to bet on the potential of their copper networks.
However, as these deployments will concern limited areas, VDSL will not overtake
the two other major FTTx architectures at a worldwide scale.
It can be noted that VDSL is the main architecture deployed in Brazil
(17.2 million homes passed and 3.87 million subscribers) and in Israel (2.3 million
homes passed and 1.5 million subscribers) the only two countries in their own region
to deploy this solution on a large scale.
> FTTx/Docsis 3.0 is the technology implemented by MSOs
The US market is clearly ahead of any other in the world concerning Docsis 3.0.
Cablecos are implementing Docsis 3.0, expanding also fibre closer to homes, in
order to provide higher speed rates. In general, cablecos do not plan to expand their
geographical footprint (with a few exceptions for those who decide to deploy FTTH).
In the coming months they will focus on updating their existing networks with Doscis
3.1. with a few exceptions betting on FTTH.
European MSOs have completed also the upgrade of their networks, thus entering
the Top 5, like Germany and the UK.
"Top 5" FTTH/B countries at December 2016
(‘000 subscribers)
"Top 5" VDSL countries at December 2016
"Top 5" FTTx/D3.0 countries at December 2016

www.idate.org
2. Major players Worldwide
World FTTx markets

World leading providers, all FTTx architectures
> There are 5 Asian and 3 US players in the global Top 10. Then one player from Russia and one from Western Europe
> Indeed, only one player from Western Europe enters the ranking thanks to its large-scale FTTN+VDSL rollouts (BT)
> Two US cablecos have now completed their infrastructures migration to FTTx/D3.0: Comcast and Charter (Spectrum)
> The Mega merger in USA has taken European cableco Virgin Media out of the TOP 10 chart
> China’s three telcos (China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile) top this FTTxranking
106 M subscribers
FTTH/B
4.7 M subscribers
FTTN+VDSL
#9
5.7 M subscribers
FTTH
#10
70 M subscribers
FTTH/B
#2
#1
7.4 M subscribers
FTTB
#8
19.9 M subscribers
FTTH/B
#424.7 M subscribers
FTTx/D3.0
#3
#77.8 M subscribers
FTTH/B
31 M subscribers
FTTH/B
#6
#521.4 M subscribers
FTTx/D3.0

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3. FTTH in Europe
World FTTx markets

FTTH/B figures at September 2016
There were more than 44.3 million FTTH/B subscribers
and nearly 148 million FTTH/B Homes Passed in EU39 at September 2016
Subscribers = 49%
Home passed = 52%
EU 28
Subscribers = 43%
Home passed =36%
CIS

Historical data and growing trends
•Interesting dynamism of the European Union since 2013
•CIS countries : higher growth rates for subs than for HP in 2016
•Globally: an increase of the growth rate in 2016 ! Especially for EU28
Source: IDATE DigiWorld for FTTH Council Europe
Growth of FTTH/B subscribers
(million)
Growth of FTTH/B Homes Passed
(million)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
EU39
EU28
CIS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
EU39
EU28
CIS

Major projects / categories of players
•400 analyzed FTTH/B projects in EU39 at September 2016:
- There are less and less new projects from one year to another
- All major operators are involved in each country, among which 35 incumbents at least
- There will probably be more and more small players involved in local deployment in the coming years (Rural and
Suburban)
• Incumbents now represent 43% of the total number of Homes Passed
- This ratio was only 21% at end 2011
- Alternative players, which promoted FTTH/B in most countries since 2008-2009, now represent 53% of the total
number of HP; this ratio is increasing
•The market is clearly dominated by those two categories of players.
•But municipalities/Local Authorities, along with utilities when appropriate, will remain those ones that will help ensure
an exhaustive coverage at term
% of Homes Passed per category of player

General ranking: FTTH/B Homes Passed
•17 countries with 2 M HP or more in EU39 (10 countries in EU28, in blue on the map)
•Most significant growth rates do not necessarily concern the largest market but this confirms that, even in
countries where FTTH/B is not the leading NGA solution, the interest is growing (e.g. Bulgaria: +40%)
Countries with 2 M HP or more at Sept 2016 [Top 5 Growth rates for 9 first months 2016]
(million)

General ranking : FTTH/B coverage
Average FTTH/B coverage*: EU39  45%
EU28  33%
(*) Number of HP/total number of Households
Top 10 countries in coverage at September 2016

General ranking: FTTH/B Subscribers
•9 countries with 1 M subscribers or more in EU39 (5 countries in EU28, in red on the map))
•Strong growth in Spain, Belarus, Finland and Portugal
•Dynamism to highlight in France and Italy
Countries with 2 M HP or more at Sept 2016 [Top 5 Growth rates for 9 first months 2016]
(million)

General ranking : FTTH/B take-up rate
Average FTTH/B take up rate (*): EU39  30%
EU28  28%
(*) Take up rate = number of subscribers / number of Homes Passed
Top 10 countries of more than 200 K subs in take-up rate at
September 2016

European ranking
•The European Ranking includes countries of more than 200 K HH where the part of FTTH/B subs in the total
number of HH is at least 1%
•Only 12/31 European countries with a penetration rate > 20%

www.idate.org
4. FTTH: zones of growth for the future?
World FTTx markets

0,00%
100,00%
200,00%
300,00%
400,00%
500,00%
600,00%
700,00%
Philippines Thailand Australia New Zealand Indonesia India China Taiwan Malaysia Kazakhstan
Source: IDATE DigiWorld for FTTH Council APAC
% variation from Dec-2015 to Dec-16 in the number of FTTH/B Homes Passed by country
An aggressive deployment plan performed by PLDT
Significant deployment efforts has been executed during 2016 for example in
Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand…

Africa in the global ranking
FTTH/B subscribers in Africa (SSA)
Source : IDATE
953 000 FTTH/B subscribers at June 2016
• Close to 1,3 million FTTH/B subscribers at June 2017
• A good growth of 33% in one year
• Two countries are now well installed in global ranking
(Number of residential subscribers / number of
households) at June 2017:
- Mauritius : 53,8% in the
Top league close to Japan
- South Africa : 4,2%
• New Entry: ANGOLA with 2,3% !!
• La Reunion as a territory: 16,7%
1,27 M FTTH/B subscribers at June 2017

www.idate.org
5. Drivers for Fibre :
The Gigabit Race, Short Latency and 4K TV !!
World FTTx markets

Status of 1 Gbps plans around the world
Where are 1 Gbps plans available?
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, The Gigabit Race

China Telecom Sichuan: FTTH first then successful 4KTV !!!
• China Telecom Sichuan (CTS) covers a Territory 90 M inhabitants
• End 2015, CTS announced having rolled out FTTH infrastructure to all of the 21 province’s cities, and its main
villages and towns
• First Province in China to be 100% FTTH covered in 3 years only!
• 10 M FTTH subscribers and more than 9 M IPTV 4K subscribers !!
• Next step is 4K HDR …. Up to 25/30 Mbps necessary
Source: IDATE DigiWorld, April 2016, Chengdu

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6. Conclusion: Place of the UK?
World FTTx markets

The UK is very well placed for Superfast BB (>30 Mbps) …..
% of Superfast subscribers over the total BB subscribers, 2011-2016
Source : IDATE, in « Telecom market dynamcis: Europe vs the USA »
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
EU-5
USA

…. But absent in the Rankings regarding FTTH rollouts
•The European Ranking includes countries of more than 200 K HH where the part of FTTH/B subs in the total
number of HH is at least 1%
• UK Figures for September 2016: 0.5 %

IDATE Research: Stream FTTx & Gigabit
26
MERCI !!!
 Roland MONTAGNE
Principle Analyst
Director DigiWorld Institute UK
mob: +33 680 850 480
r.montagne@idate.org

IDATE DigiWorld -FTTx markets public - Roland MONTAGNE

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