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Pete Silvester - Re-configuring economic development approaches
1. Reconfiguring Economic
Development Approaches:
How Myanmar can/will reshape
development futures
Development Futures Conference
Sydney, 21 & 22 November
Pete Silvester
MPA, BCom, BA (Hons.)
Partner, Morris & Silvester
2. Who we are
• Myanmar-based strategy
consultants, since August 2012
• Pride ourselves on:
– Evidence-based problem solving
– Knowledge of development, and of Myanmar
– Integrity (GHD Integrity Management System)
• Only take on projects which:
– Have sustained positive theory of change
– We know we can deliver
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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3. Pete Silvester
Allison Morris
Nilar Wynn
Zar Chi
Development Consultant
and Policy Expert
Development Consultant
and Policy Expert
Researcher and consultant
Office Manager
Formerly with:
OECD, Aidha (Director);
CERI; Womens Refugee
Network; Berry, Appleman
& Lieden LLP.
Has worked with Morris &
Silvester for
CARE-Myanmar, Emerging
Markets Consulting (for
Volkswagen and
Oxfam), and HelpAge
International.
Myanmar national
Formerly with: Booz &
Company; The World
Bank; OECD; Australian
Government.
Master of Public Policy
from the Lee Kuan Yew
School of Public Policy.
Master of Public Affairs
from Sciences Po, Paris.
First Class Honours in
Development
Studies, University of
Melbourne
Sunday, 22 December 2013
Master of Public Affairs
(Magna Cum Laude) from
Sciences Po, Paris.
Bachelor’s of International
Studies from Emory
University.
Holds a Bachelor of
Science in Mathematics
Professionally trained in
computers and tourism
management
Myanmar national
Holds a Bachelor of Arts
from Yangon University
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4. Who we work with
Development
•
•
•
•
OECD
CARE
World Bank
HelpAge International
Private Sector
•
•
•
•
University of Indiana, Kelly School of Business
Emerging Market Consulting
Ringier AG
West Indochina
CSR Partners
•
•
•
•
Kaufmann Foundation (GEW)
European Union
British Council
Ooredoo, MBE, and others
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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5. We’re also Myanmar’s first
incubator
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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6. Romp through Myanmar history
1947
Colonial period ends
1947
Bogyoke Aung San assassinated
1948
Independence
1958
First (temporary) coup d’état by the military
1962
Military coup: Burmese way of socialism
1988
Following unrest, the State Law and Order Restoration Council
(SLORC)
takes power through an internal coup. Myanmar is declared a market
economy.
1990
National League for Democracy (NLD) wins election, but results are
1990annulled by SLORC. Sanctions imposed.
1997
Myanmar joins ASEAN.
2005
Capital moved from Yangon (formerly Rangoon) to Nay Pyi Taw
2008
Cyclone Nargis devastates the Irrawaddy delta, killing up to 150 000
2010
Elections boycotted by NLD
2011
General Than Shwe steps aside. U Thein Sein becomes president.
2012
NLD wins 43 seats in by-elections. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is
elected.
2014
Myanmar to chair ASEAN for the first time
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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2015
General elections to be held in December
7. At a glance
• Population: 50-60 million (?)
• Population growth rate: 0.7%
p.a.
• GDP per capita: $580 p.a.
• HDI: 0.483 (150th)
• Connectivity: Very low
• Infrastructure: Shocking
• Opportunities: Amazing!
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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8. Current dominant narratives
• Davos bullishness
– Geostrategic advantages
– Natural resources
– Very reform-minded (business friendly)
government
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9. Current dominant narratives
• Meanwhile, a familiar story…
– Inflation (development bubble)
– Growing inequality
– Environmental degradation
– Corruption
– Violence
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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10. Current dominant narratives
• Asian economic growth model
– Increase production factors – capital and
labour
– Attract foreign investment
– Start with low wage industry, and earn your
way up the value chain
Is that all we’ve got?
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11. Our objective for today
To develop plausible futures that challenge
the pre-existing narrative of Asian economic
development, particularly for Myanmar.
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12. Roles – Facilitator (me):
- Provide minimal background info
- Encourage you to open your mind and
shed your preconceptions
- Guide brainstorming through some basic
stages
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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13. Roles – Participants (you):
- Bring your knowledge, leave your preconceptions
- Think macro, long term
- 10 years to 50 years
- No so much about current status quo and current
drivers, but possible future drivers and future status
quos
- Also think micro when describing a future
- Be a story-teller
- Get creative
- Have fun
- Silly ideas are more fun, and are usually the best
ones
- If your professional persona isn’t fun, leave it outside
Sunday,- December 2013
22 Own the space
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14. Identifying assumptions of the
Asian Model of development
What are the “assumptions” of the Asian
model?
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15. Drivers of change
Which of these identified “assumptions” are
going to persist, which will change?
What current and future forces are going to
change or negate the Asian Model
narrative?
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16. Link up a framework
Which drivers could plausibly effect another?
Link them.
Which drivers don’t seem to link very well?
Kill them.
Are there common themes and stories
emerging?
Cluster them
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17. Write narrative
Pick your favourite cluster.
Make up a story about the links and write it
down.
Richly describe the world in your story:
Characters. How the world works.
Events. Development outcomes.
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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19. Thank you
Pete Silvester
Partner, Morris & Silvester | Co-founder, Project Hub Yangon
#203 United Condo, 39 Alan Pya Pagoda Road, Yangon
psilvester@gmail.com
+95 (0) 9 3121 6412 | +61 413 350 007
Twitter: @petesilvo | @HubYangon
Sunday, 22 December 2013
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Notas do Editor
In 1962, Myanmar – then Burma – underwent a military coup, and the military junta severed the country’s political and economic ties to the outside world. For over two decades Burma took on a centralized, controlled economy, headed by an autocratic and corrupt dictatorship. Separatist territories and nationalities in Myanmar’s ethnically distinct states at the fringes of the country have since struggled against the central government through decades of civil war and armed conflict. In the following 30 years, as per capita GDP in the rest of Asia grew in multiples, Myanmar stagnated, barely growing at all. (In 1988, the Burmese authorities showed signs of relaxing control as the government declared it now a market-based economy and General Ne Win, the socialist who had been in power since 1962, stepped down and were followed by mass protests by civil society and students demanding democratic reform. However, hopes political transition ended abruptly in a brutal crackdown of student protests on August 1988, shortly after which democracy leader DawAung San SuuKyi was put under house arrest and many more dissident Burmese were imprisoned. For the next decades, until 2011, Myanmar would be ruled by the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), led by General U Than Shwe. The 1988 transition to a market economy only went as far as to protect the entrenched elites – the military and their supporters – in the main national industries, despite taking on the basic principles of a market-based economy. Throughout the next two decades, Myanmar grappled with increasingly severe sanctions in major markets, such as the United States and the European Union. International sanctions both undermined the economy and the political legitimacy of the GoM, and necessitated a deepening of Myanmar’s economic and political relations with China. In the 1990s Myanmar’s countryside grew rife with poverty and oppression, while the other economies in the region underwent the ‘Asian Miracle’. In the twenty years following 1990, Myanmar’s per capita GDP grew by 2.7% annually while the rest of Asia averaged at 4.2%. In 2011, the SLORC, by now referred to as the State Peace and Development Council, transferred power to a new government led by President U TheinSein. By-elections which were held in April 2012, in which the National League for Democracy won 43 of 45 vacant seats, including an elected seat for DawAungSuuKyi. Since 2011, the GoM has undergone significant steps in the democratic reform process that have been welcomed by the international community. Slowly, international sanctions have been lifted as it becomes clear that the GoM has decided to open its economy, and reform its polity.In the political sphere, economic sphere, and in relation to its internal conflicts, the pace of change is staggering. Politically, the country has moved from military rule to multi-party democracy; economic reforms aim to transform a largely centrally planned economy to a more open market-based one; and finally, negotiated ceasefires in the on-going peace process have halted several of the prolonged conflicts in the country’s border areas.
While the Davos crowd speaks bullishly in such terms referencing Myanmar’s geostrategic advantages, ample natural resources, and positive governance trends,
all the while dependency, inflation, inequality, and environmental degradation are becoming all too predictable problems.
the dominant narrative for Myanmar’s development future is a copy-paste of the Asian economic model: increasing capital investment and labour participation by attracting foreign capital, and creating low-wage jobs. Setting aside its well-known pros and cons, it is self-evident that the Asian Model was developed for a different global/regional economic time. Meanwhile, Asian Tigers are falling into Middle-income traps at the end of this same economic pathway. So if all we can offer Myanmar’s development future is this 60-year old blueprint, we will have failed to innovate.
The learning objectives of this workshop is to: i) Brainstorm specifics of how the Asian Model is (or is not) outdated in relation to Myanmar; ii) Outline the ways that the economic development environment has changed compared with other Asian development cases (e.g., late-80’s South Korea; early-90’s Vietnam); iii) Develop specific new programs that could be emphasized in development policy, practice, and research to challenge the pre-existing narrative of Asian economic development, particularly for Myanmar.
The learning objectives of this workshop is to: i) Brainstorm specifics of how the Asian Model is (or is not) outdated in relation to Myanmar; ii) Outline the ways that the economic development environment has changed compared with other Asian development cases (e.g., late-80’s South Korea; early-90’s Vietnam); iii) Develop specific new programs that could be emphasized in development policy, practice, and research to challenge the pre-existing narrative of Asian economic development, particularly for Myanmar.
The learning objectives of this workshop is to: i) Brainstorm specifics of how the Asian Model is (or is not) outdated in relation to Myanmar; ii) Outline the ways that the economic development environment has changed compared with other Asian development cases (e.g., late-80’s South Korea; early-90’s Vietnam); iii) Develop specific new programs that could be emphasized in development policy, practice, and research to challenge the pre-existing narrative of Asian economic development, particularly for Myanmar.