DSD-INT 2022 Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA - Nederhoff
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Presentation by Kees Nederhoff (Deltares USA, USA), at the Delft3D User Days, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2022. Wednesday, 16 November 2022.
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DSD-INT 2022 Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA - Nederhoff
- 1. Kees Nederhoff, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Li Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Camila Gaido, Curt Storlazzi, Kai Parker, Jennifer Thomas, Andy O’Neill, Kathryn Roscoe, Frederique Groen, Keren Bolter, Nick Cohn, Claire Jeuken, Jay Veeramony, Allison Penko and many more! Delft3D User Days 2022 (Day 3: afternoon) Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA A high-level overview of 4 projects
- 2. Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 2 Puget Sound Bodega Bay Unalakleet Houston Oahu Jacksonville Miami Southeast Atlantic Coast FHICS Charleston
- 3. Contents Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 3 Case studies 1. Southeast Atlantic Coast 2. Community Flood Resilience Support System pilot at Charleston, SC 3. Extreme weather forecasting within FHICS 4. Wave-driven flooding at Miami, FL and Oahu, HI General considerations 1 2 3 4
- 4. 1. Southeast Atlantic Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 4 • Objective: quantify coastal compound hazards for frequency and infrequent events + SLR • 200-meter resolution with 1m subgrid lookup tables for topo-bathymetry • Newly implemented Curve Number method to compute on-the-fly infiltration rates • Work jointly with USGS. Soon to be published in Coastal Engineering – Nederhoff et al.
- 5. Model framework in-depth validated Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 5 • Tidal validation across 80 stations: median MAE of 8.3 cm • Storm validation for 24 NOAA stations for 198 events: MAE of 11.9 cm • Detailed validation of Hurricane Florence (2018) − Time-series coastal stations look good − Larger mismatch with inland observations
- 6. Estimates of extremes have scatter and bias which increases with water level: riverine versus coastal Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 6
- 7. Information on coastal hazards at 10x10m resolution 7 Model output Savannah, GA 200x200m Post-processed flood depth (10x10 m) level, velocity & duration All data will be released via USGS Sciencebase Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff
- 8. Quantification coastal compound flooding across entire regions shows they increase with increasing SLR Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 8
- 9. Flood risk increases strongly with SLR and Miami metropolitan area account for the largest share Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 9 Delft-FIAT
- 10. 2. New desktop tool to support adaptation planning Voettekst van de presentatie 10 • Objective: new tool to remove modeling bottlenecks and to empowers local communities to understand risk & evaluate • Computational core: − Hazard model: SFINCS − Damage model Delft-FIAT • Commissioned Department of Homeland Security. The City of Charleston pilot application • Tool available online www.deltares-usa.us under ‘Free Software’
- 12. 12-FOOT WATER LEVEL (+NAVD88) Damages
- 13. Before measure After measure 12-FOOT WATER LEVEL (+NAVD88) Damages Elevated homes means flooding is not causing damage
- 14. 3. Uncertainty days before landfall Ian (2022) landfall Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 14 • Objective: forecast the wave, surge, currents, sediment transport, morphological change, breaches, flooding and structure response • Deterministic approach: see presentation Maarten van Ormondt − Large-scale surge and wave models − Local-scale: 2D-XBeach models • Probabilistic approach: need for 100s of ensemble members • Work jointly with NRL & USGS
- 15. Ensemble members days before landfall (n=1000) created with DeMaria method to account uncertainty Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 15
- 16. Time series Fort Myers show large spread & necessity of probabilistic forecasting days before landfall Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 16
- 17. Probabilistic estimate water level 3 days prior landfall Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 17 Fort Myers
- 18. 4. Compute wave-driven flooding at reef-lined coasts Voettekst van de presentatie 18 • Eventual objective is quantifying coastal flooding across 1000s km reef- lined coasts • Work jointly with USGS to assess accuracy in reproducing wave-driven flooding • Soon to be published in Coastal Engineering by Camila Gaido (UCSC) Miami, FL Oahu, HI
- 19. 4) SFINCS and XBeach comparison for wave-driven flooding for Miami, FL and Oahu, HI Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 19 • Incoming waves and wave setup by XBeach Propagating by SFINCS • Overestimate water level locally, but underestimations possible too • Speed >10,000x faster − XBeach: 8 days − SFINCS: 60 seconds
- 20. General considerations Projects with SFINCS overseas at Deltares USA – Kees Nederhoff 20 1. Modeling needs to be faster: need for speed! − Large-scale brute force computations − Rapid assessments for desktop studies − Forecasting 100s of ensemble member for extreme weather impacts 2. Compound flooding requires taking into account more-and-more processs − SFINCS (with subgrid) works very well for coastal compound flooding − Hydrology can be considered in SFINCS, however, model skill should be improved − Wave-driven flooding via XBeach-1D can be cumbersome + high model resolution can be prohibitive 3. Easy coupling with Delft-FIAT damage tool makes numbers relatable − The new Delft-FIAT release will be out soon