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August 7 2015
ABC Company, Inc.
Estimated Statement of Operations
For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue:
Installation Revenue 450$ 3,825$ 21,038$ 73,633$ 77.1% 84.3% 82.3% 80.6%
Non-Installation Revenue
Service Fees 89$ 623$ 4,361$ 17,444$ 15.2% 13.7% 17.1% 19.1%
Other Non-Installation Revenue 45$ 90$ 158$ 237$ 7.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3%
Total Revenue: 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Direct Costs:
Installation Costs 338$ 2,678$ 12,623$ 36,817$ 57.9% 59.0% 49.4% 40.3%
Non-Installation Costs 38$ 193$ 1,175$ 4,420$ 6.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8%
Direct Costs: 376$ 2,871$ 13,798$ 41,237$ 64.4% 63.3% 54.0% 45.2%
Other Cost of Services 88$ 567$ 2,556$ 6,849$ 15.1% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5%
Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$ 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%
Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%
Operating Expenses:
Sales 292$ 1,588$ 6,389$ 18,263$ 50.0% 35.0% 25.0% 20.0%
Marketing 263$ 1,361$ 5,111$ 13,697$ 45.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0%
Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$ 30.0% 22.0% 11.0% 9.0%
General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$ 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0%
Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$ 132.5% 93.5% 62.0% 49.0%
EBITDA (654)$ (3,142)$ (6,641)$ (1,516)$ -112.0% -69.2% -26.0% -1.7%
Other (Revenue) & Expenses:
Interest 80$ 156$ 32$ 80$ 13.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1%
Taxes 8$ 9$ 11$ 15$ 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Depreciation & Amortization 13$ 67$ 268$ 874$ 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0%
Total Other (Revenue) & Expenses 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$ 17.3% 5.1% 1.2% 1.1%
Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$ -129.3% -74.3% -27.2% -2.7%
Statement Notes:
Revenue
Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$ 7.4% 51.1% 47.8% 50.6%
Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$ 39.4% 26.5% 29.9% 29.0%
Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$ 43.8% 20.5% 12.7% 13.9%
Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$ 9.4% 1.9% 9.6% 6.5%
Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$
Headcount
Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$
New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$
Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$
Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$
Dollars (000's omitted) Percent (%) of Revenue
COPYRIGHT © 2010
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #1:
If you cannot read the
financial statement from two
feet away the font is
too small
(too many details)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
ABC Company, Inc.
Projected Statement of Operations
For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue:
Market 1 43.00$ 2,320.00$ 12,205.00$ 46,232.00$
Market 2 230.00$ 1,201.00$ 7,652.00$ 26,450.00$
Market 3 256.00$ 932.00$ 3,250.00$ 12,658.00$
Market 4 55.00$ 85.00$ 2,450.00$ 5,974.00$
Total Revenue 584.00$ 4,538.00$ 25,557.00$ 91,314.00$
Gross Margin ($) 120.00$ 1,100.00$ 9,203.00$ 43,228.00$
Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%
Operating Expenses:
Sales & Marketing 555.00$ 2,949.00$ 11,500.00$ 31,960.00$
Research & Development 175.00$ 998.00$ 2,811.00$ 8,218.00$
General & Administration 44.00$ 295.00$ 1,533.00$ 4,566.00$
Total Operating Expenses: 774.00$ 4,242.00$ 15,844.00$ 44,744.00$
Other Expense/(Income) 101.00$ 232.00$ 311.00$ 969.00$
Net Income (Loss) (755.00)$ (3,374.00)$ (6,952.00)$ (2,485.00)$
Statement Notes:
Headcount
Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$
New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$
Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$
Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$
Dollars (000's omitted)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #2:
Pennies are only for
accounting auditors
COPYRIGHT © 2014
ABC Company, Inc.
Estimated Statement of Operations
For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013
Revenue:
Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$
Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$
Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$
Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$
Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$
Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$
Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%
Operating Expenses:
Sales & Marketing 555$ 2,949$ 11,500$ 31,960$
Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$
General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$
Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$
Other Expense/(Income) 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$
Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$
Statement Notes:
Headcount
Existing 13$ 18$ 61$ 298$
New Hires 5$ 43$ 237$ 830$
Total Headcount 18$ 61$ 298$ 1,128$
Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$
Dollars (000's omitted)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #3:
Use $ (dollar signs) on the
first and last row only.
Unless, of course, you are
mixing rows of $ and %, etc.
COPYRIGHT © 2014
FORMAT CREDIBILITY
The presentation format does
not interfere with (or create
noise for) the reader
COPYRIGHT © 2014
ABC Company, Inc.
Projected Statement of Operations
For The Years Ended December 31, 2010 through 2013
Revenue:
Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$
Market 2 230 1201 7652 26450
Market 3 256 932 3250 12658
Market 4 55 85 2450 5974
Total Revenue 584 4538 25557 91314
Gross Margin ($) 120 1100 9203 43228
Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3%
Operating Expenses:
Sales & Marketing 555 2949 11500 31960
Research & Development 175 998 2811 8218
General & Administration 44 295 1533 4566
Total Operating Expenses: 774 4242 15844 44744
Other Expense/(Income) 101 232 311 969
Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$
Statement Notes:
Headcount
Existing 13 18 61 298
New Hires 5 43 237 830
Total Headcount 18 61 298 1,128
Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$
Dollars
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #4:
Use column headings that
make sense
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #5:
Numbers with thousands or
millions must have commas
This: 54,556
Not this: 54556
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #6:
Don’t mix fonts
Or font size……
And do not use a silly font
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #7
Spelle Check
COPYRIGHT © 2014
And do not tell me you relied
on Microsoft…….
Rule #8:
Text is left justified
Numbers are right justified
Violators confuse the reader
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Rule #9:
Do not overdo color
and
Do not highlight in
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Use Spot color!
Rule #11:
Round your numbers to the
nearest thousand for
presentations
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Financials in your Slide deck
are a Marketing Effort!
Really?
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Income
Statement
Cash Flow
Statement
COPYRIGHT © 2014
ABC Co.
($ 000's omitted)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pro Forma Financial Statement
Revenue -$ 1,875$ 44,953$ 108,238$ 180,161$
Cost of Service - 1,162 12,739 5,369 -
Gross Margin - 712 32,214 102,868 180,161
38% 72% 95% 100%
Operating Expenses
Research & Development 1,303 2,972 3,587 4,198 4,379
Sales & Marketing 662 1,456 2,041 2,195 2,868
General & Administrative 316 1,380 3,778 1,947 2,729
Total Expenses 2,282 5,807 9,407 8,340 9,976
Depreciation & Amortization 42 98 301 590 791
EBIT (2,324) (5,193) 22,507 93,939 169,394
Net Income (2,639) (5,411) 16,893 55,530 100,603
0% -289% 38% 51% 56%
Pro Forma Cash Flow
Depr & Amort 42 98 301 590 791
Cash from Operations (2,597) (5,313) 17,193 56,120 101,393
Change in Working Capital
Decrease in Accounts Receivable - (1,125) (4,894) (5,573) (6,324)
Increase in Accounts Payable (31) 189 2,015 2,819 2,887
Cash from Working Capital (31) (936) (2,879) (2,754) (3,437)
Change in Investments
Capital Equipment Purchases (57) (297) (1,052) (607) (600)
Cash from Financing
Series A Preferred 7,000 - - - -
Series B Preferred - - 42,000 - -
Cash from Financing 7,000 - 42,000 - -
Net Cash Flow 4,315 (6,545) 55,262 52,759 97,357
Ending Cash 6,644$ 99$ 55,360$ 108,119$ 205,476$
ABC Company – Financials by Year
($000’s omitted)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
($25,000)
$25,000
$75,000
$125,000
$175,000
$225,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue
Income
Cash
Milestone #1
Prototype
Milestone #2
Pilots
Milestone #3
Commercialization
Seeking $250k Investment
David A. Fogel, CPA
 Serial entrepreneurial CFO
 Managing Director of Swifton CFOs LLC (since 2009)
 Experience with high tech companies ranging from biotech to
telecom to healthcare IT to social media to…
 Adjunct Instructor of Master’s Program:
 Presenter & Mentor:
 Member:
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Provide cost-effective outsourced CFO support
Clients range from pre-revenue startups to later stage
privately held companies
Goals
(1) educate entrepreneurs to understand and
consider financial opportunities and implications
(2) handle all accounting/ financial matters so the
entrepreneurs can focus on driving the business
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Can we just forecast revenue
annually?
Why do we have to forecast
revenue monthly?
Customers
Year # new
clients
# total
clients
Year 0 - -
Year 1 3 3
Year 2 9 12
Year 3 25 37
Customers
Year # new
clients
# total
clients J F M A M J J A S O N D
Year 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Year 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Year 2 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Year 3 25 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
Customers
Year # new
clients
# total
clients J F M A M J J A S O N D
Year 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Year 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Year 2 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Year 3 25 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
• Are you really going to jump from 12 to 37 customers from Year 2
December to Year 3 January? Then why would you forecast it?
Other reasons:
• Timing and seasonality
• Basis for cash forecasting
Introducing the Financial Statements
• Balance Sheet
• Profit and Loss Statement
• Cash Flow Statement
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Balance Sheet
 What you own/owe – point in time
 Assets = Liabilities + Equity
 Assets are good?
 Capital expenditures (Fixed Asset) rule
 Amount => $5,000 AND useful life > one year
 Liabilities – Disclose, disclose, disclose
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Profit and Loss Statement
(Statement of Operations)
• What you earned
• Could represent cash activities but usually much
more……
• Management accounting can be more
informative, but need to have GAAP
• Earnings can be managed, but cash is a reality…
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Cash Flow Statement
• Where your cash came and went:
• Operations, Investing, or Financing
• Cash in the bank is a fact
• Investors are most interested in your use of $$
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
1. Defined
2. What about the assumptions?
3. Creating the sales forecast
4. Spreading the numbers
5. Creating the statements
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Ty Danco
(Famous Investor)
"I'll never believe your revenue numbers
anyway, but I sure want to scrutinize your
assumptions and expenses!"
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
1.What are financial projections?
Collection of statements that present
your business in numbers (IS, BS, CF, Cap)
“Does the story make sense?”
“Does the story add up?”
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Set your goals from top down
but…..
Prepare the model from the bottom up
then….start over
with your top down goals
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
2. What about the assumptions?
Document the source of each number you produce - Why?
- Knowledge of the assumptions proves that the
entrepreneur understands the business
- Prove it to yourself
Sources of assumptions
- Desired goal to be obtained
- Primary market research – surveys, vendor quotes
- Second market research – purchased or gov’t information
- Estimated or best guess (really try not to SWAG)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
2. What about the assumptions? (part 2)
Start-up costs (uses of $)
Financing (sources of $)
Capital expenditures (costs with >1 yr life)
Fixed expense (cost of being in business)
Variable expense (cost of doing business)
Projected sales (anticipated revenue earned)
Cash flow (anticipated $ received and spent)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Expenses up to the point when you are open
for business…….which is when?
• List uses of money – describe how spent
• Like: Fixed assets & Working Capital
• Examples?
 Fixed Assets = Equipment, Furniture
 Working Capital = Rental deposits, Insurance
Start-up cost assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Sources where $ will come from
• Where?
 Entrepreneur and team
 F&F
 Bank loan (though not likely for start-ups)
 Debt from owner or outside creditor
 Non-dilutive financing (maybe )
 Equity capital
• For loan – know amount, terms of repayment
(mos), and rate of interest or return
Financing assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Costs that have a “lifetime” greater than one year
AND an individual or collective cost greater than $5k
• Predict some fixed assets by headcount, some by
significant changes in sales volume, some by
changes in product lines, etc.
• Examples: Leasehold improvements, Furniture &
fixtures, Machinery
• Note: Expense the PCs & Macs & iPads & iPhones
(but keep track of them anyway)
Capital Expenditures
(Fixed Assets)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Costs of being in business
• Do not vary by sales volume (i.e. day-to-day)
• But DO increase as the business scales
• Create fixed cost projections on monthly basis
• Research through correspondence with outside
vendors
• Record the source & amount from each
vendor……..
• Examples: Rent, Utilities, Salaries, Benefits,
Marketing expenses, Administrative expenses
Fixed cost assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Costs of doing business
• May vary directly with sales volume
• DO increase as the business scales
• Expenses incurred with the next “unit” of
product or service
• Research through correspondence with outside
vendors
• Examples: Materials, direct/indirect labor, and
shipping costs
Variable cost assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
 What product(s) and/or service(s)
 Quantities
 Price
 When (seasonality/cyclicality)?
 T&C’s
Projected sales assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
• Convert your business activity to cash activity
• When will cash be collected from customers?
 May vary by product line and by customer
 Generally assume 45 days---though currently
customers are extending to 60 days
• When do you pay your vendor’s invoices?
 May vary by product line and by vendor
 Generally assume 30-45 days
 Need to create “referenceable” vendors
Cash flow assumptions
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Ben Littauer
Member, Boston Harbor Angels
Member, LaunchPad
"I like to see a business model spreadsheet with
the assumptions clearly called out as variables.
Then I can twiddle the knobs and see how
sensitive profits are to the assumptions."
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
3. Creating the sales forecast
BEST - Predict by customer as detailed as
possible
….but include customer turnover
BETTER – Predict by market
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
3. Creating the sales forecast (part 2)
How do I start? Market research!
• Trade associations
• Primary & secondary research
• Gov’t resources
US Census Bureau
IRS Statistical Data
Select your geography
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Developing The Financial Forecast
3. Creating the sales forecast (part 3)
Small
Client
Medium
Client
Large
Client
Average Hours Per
Week
4 Hours 8 Hours 16 Hours
Average Contract $
Per Week
$500 $1,250 $2,500
Predict by client (customer) types
• By market
• By size
Then ID certain characteristics
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Forecast Trap:
Why they call them “Gross Sales”
• Returns
• Discounts
• Coupons
• Rebates
• Chargebacks
• Markdowns
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Forecast Trap:
Do not over-estimate
first year revenue
wait, we can’t sell $ millions in month one ?
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Tip:
Integration
Must use an integrated model
Headcount added
Payroll and benefits calculation
Summarized employee costs
Income Statement
Cash Flow
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Question?
Is the methodology
Accrual or Cash?
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Tip:
Project payroll & benefits in detail
• Payroll & benefits are often the most costly
expense yet they are often neglected
• Project monthly to handle start dates
correctly (everyone cannot start in January)
• Match people adds with milestones
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Tip:
Projection Numbers are not separate from
the Company Plans
Company Plans
Milestone Projects Responsible Revenue/
Cost
Dates
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Multiple Model Trap:
One investor model,
Multiple options (triggers)
Fundamental changes made in base model
must be duplicated in the clones---and you
will forget.
If multiple scenarios are mandated do create
at only a high level
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Tip:
Don’t forget the…..
Sales commissions – Direct connect them to your
sales staff’s (or sales rep) sales
Bonuses – Include with payroll
Recruiting expenses – Peg them to change in new
employees
Debt - Many forget to include Interest Expense on
the income statement even though the Company
has incurred Debt
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Tip:
Reasonableness
1. Once you think you are done take the
smell test --- Do the numbers really make
sense (i.e. can you really increase revenue
w/o an increase in costs)?
2. Do the Like-Kind test. Compare your
“metrics” versus your competition
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Creating the Statements
1. Consider it a Marketing Effort
2. Present the Pro-Forma Financial
Statement
3. Graph the Revenues, Income, and Cash
4. Present the Headcount
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Don’t let GustTM blow you away………
1. Set forecast in stone
2. Complete the boxes
3. Consistent with other docs and
financials
4. Be able to back it up (details?)
COPYRIGHT © 2014
Contact Information:
Email:
Website:
Twitter:
Phone:
Cell:
COPYRIGHT © 2015
Even More Universal Truths:
• Be consistent – Don’t portray cost
categories (or individuals)
differently by year
• Have “Checks”
• Do not need to be hung up with
GAAP, but….don’t go rogue
COPYRIGHT © 2015

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Swifton - TechStars - Aug 7 2015

  • 2. ABC Company, Inc. Estimated Statement of Operations For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue: Installation Revenue 450$ 3,825$ 21,038$ 73,633$ 77.1% 84.3% 82.3% 80.6% Non-Installation Revenue Service Fees 89$ 623$ 4,361$ 17,444$ 15.2% 13.7% 17.1% 19.1% Other Non-Installation Revenue 45$ 90$ 158$ 237$ 7.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% Total Revenue: 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$ 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Direct Costs: Installation Costs 338$ 2,678$ 12,623$ 36,817$ 57.9% 59.0% 49.4% 40.3% Non-Installation Costs 38$ 193$ 1,175$ 4,420$ 6.5% 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% Direct Costs: 376$ 2,871$ 13,798$ 41,237$ 64.4% 63.3% 54.0% 45.2% Other Cost of Services 88$ 567$ 2,556$ 6,849$ 15.1% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$ 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3% Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3% Operating Expenses: Sales 292$ 1,588$ 6,389$ 18,263$ 50.0% 35.0% 25.0% 20.0% Marketing 263$ 1,361$ 5,111$ 13,697$ 45.0% 30.0% 20.0% 15.0% Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$ 30.0% 22.0% 11.0% 9.0% General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$ 7.5% 6.5% 6.0% 5.0% Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$ 132.5% 93.5% 62.0% 49.0% EBITDA (654)$ (3,142)$ (6,641)$ (1,516)$ -112.0% -69.2% -26.0% -1.7% Other (Revenue) & Expenses: Interest 80$ 156$ 32$ 80$ 13.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% Taxes 8$ 9$ 11$ 15$ 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Depreciation & Amortization 13$ 67$ 268$ 874$ 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% Total Other (Revenue) & Expenses 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$ 17.3% 5.1% 1.2% 1.1% Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$ -129.3% -74.3% -27.2% -2.7% Statement Notes: Revenue Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$ 7.4% 51.1% 47.8% 50.6% Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$ 39.4% 26.5% 29.9% 29.0% Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$ 43.8% 20.5% 12.7% 13.9% Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$ 9.4% 1.9% 9.6% 6.5% Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$ Headcount Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$ Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$ Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$ Dollars (000's omitted) Percent (%) of Revenue COPYRIGHT © 2010 COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 3. Rule #1: If you cannot read the financial statement from two feet away the font is too small (too many details) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 4. ABC Company, Inc. Projected Statement of Operations For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue: Market 1 43.00$ 2,320.00$ 12,205.00$ 46,232.00$ Market 2 230.00$ 1,201.00$ 7,652.00$ 26,450.00$ Market 3 256.00$ 932.00$ 3,250.00$ 12,658.00$ Market 4 55.00$ 85.00$ 2,450.00$ 5,974.00$ Total Revenue 584.00$ 4,538.00$ 25,557.00$ 91,314.00$ Gross Margin ($) 120.00$ 1,100.00$ 9,203.00$ 43,228.00$ Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3% Operating Expenses: Sales & Marketing 555.00$ 2,949.00$ 11,500.00$ 31,960.00$ Research & Development 175.00$ 998.00$ 2,811.00$ 8,218.00$ General & Administration 44.00$ 295.00$ 1,533.00$ 4,566.00$ Total Operating Expenses: 774.00$ 4,242.00$ 15,844.00$ 44,744.00$ Other Expense/(Income) 101.00$ 232.00$ 311.00$ 969.00$ Net Income (Loss) (755.00)$ (3,374.00)$ (6,952.00)$ (2,485.00)$ Statement Notes: Headcount Existing 13.00$ 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ New Hires 5.00$ 43.00$ 237.00$ 830.00$ Total Headcount 18.00$ 61.00$ 298.00$ 1,128.00$ Capital Expenditures 126.00$ 424.00$ 1,584.00$ 4,474.00$ Dollars (000's omitted) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 5. Rule #2: Pennies are only for accounting auditors COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 6. ABC Company, Inc. Estimated Statement of Operations For The Years Ended December 31, 2010. 2011, 2012, and 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Revenue: Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$ Market 2 230$ 1,201$ 7,652$ 26,450$ Market 3 256$ 932$ 3,250$ 12,658$ Market 4 55$ 85$ 2,450$ 5,974$ Total Revenue 584$ 4,538$ 25,557$ 91,314$ Gross Margin ($) 120$ 1,100$ 9,203$ 43,228$ Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3% Operating Expenses: Sales & Marketing 555$ 2,949$ 11,500$ 31,960$ Research & Development 175$ 998$ 2,811$ 8,218$ General & Administration 44$ 295$ 1,533$ 4,566$ Total Operating Expenses: 774$ 4,242$ 15,844$ 44,744$ Other Expense/(Income) 101$ 232$ 311$ 969$ Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$ Statement Notes: Headcount Existing 13$ 18$ 61$ 298$ New Hires 5$ 43$ 237$ 830$ Total Headcount 18$ 61$ 298$ 1,128$ Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$ Dollars (000's omitted) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 7. Rule #3: Use $ (dollar signs) on the first and last row only. Unless, of course, you are mixing rows of $ and %, etc. COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 8. FORMAT CREDIBILITY The presentation format does not interfere with (or create noise for) the reader COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 9. ABC Company, Inc. Projected Statement of Operations For The Years Ended December 31, 2010 through 2013 Revenue: Market 1 43$ 2,320$ 12,205$ 46,232$ Market 2 230 1201 7652 26450 Market 3 256 932 3250 12658 Market 4 55 85 2450 5974 Total Revenue 584 4538 25557 91314 Gross Margin ($) 120 1100 9203 43228 Gross Margin (%) 20.5% 24.2% 36.0% 47.3% Operating Expenses: Sales & Marketing 555 2949 11500 31960 Research & Development 175 998 2811 8218 General & Administration 44 295 1533 4566 Total Operating Expenses: 774 4242 15844 44744 Other Expense/(Income) 101 232 311 969 Net Income (Loss) (755)$ (3,374)$ (6,952)$ (2,485)$ Statement Notes: Headcount Existing 13 18 61 298 New Hires 5 43 237 830 Total Headcount 18 61 298 1,128 Capital Expenditures 126$ 424$ 1,584$ 4,474$ Dollars COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 10. Rule #4: Use column headings that make sense COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 11. Rule #5: Numbers with thousands or millions must have commas This: 54,556 Not this: 54556 COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 12. Rule #6: Don’t mix fonts Or font size…… And do not use a silly font COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 13. Rule #7 Spelle Check COPYRIGHT © 2014 And do not tell me you relied on Microsoft…….
  • 14. Rule #8: Text is left justified Numbers are right justified Violators confuse the reader COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 15. Rule #9: Do not overdo color and Do not highlight in COPYRIGHT © 2014 Use Spot color!
  • 16. Rule #11: Round your numbers to the nearest thousand for presentations COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 17. Financials in your Slide deck are a Marketing Effort! Really? COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 18. Income Statement Cash Flow Statement COPYRIGHT © 2014 ABC Co. ($ 000's omitted) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Pro Forma Financial Statement Revenue -$ 1,875$ 44,953$ 108,238$ 180,161$ Cost of Service - 1,162 12,739 5,369 - Gross Margin - 712 32,214 102,868 180,161 38% 72% 95% 100% Operating Expenses Research & Development 1,303 2,972 3,587 4,198 4,379 Sales & Marketing 662 1,456 2,041 2,195 2,868 General & Administrative 316 1,380 3,778 1,947 2,729 Total Expenses 2,282 5,807 9,407 8,340 9,976 Depreciation & Amortization 42 98 301 590 791 EBIT (2,324) (5,193) 22,507 93,939 169,394 Net Income (2,639) (5,411) 16,893 55,530 100,603 0% -289% 38% 51% 56% Pro Forma Cash Flow Depr & Amort 42 98 301 590 791 Cash from Operations (2,597) (5,313) 17,193 56,120 101,393 Change in Working Capital Decrease in Accounts Receivable - (1,125) (4,894) (5,573) (6,324) Increase in Accounts Payable (31) 189 2,015 2,819 2,887 Cash from Working Capital (31) (936) (2,879) (2,754) (3,437) Change in Investments Capital Equipment Purchases (57) (297) (1,052) (607) (600) Cash from Financing Series A Preferred 7,000 - - - - Series B Preferred - - 42,000 - - Cash from Financing 7,000 - 42,000 - - Net Cash Flow 4,315 (6,545) 55,262 52,759 97,357 Ending Cash 6,644$ 99$ 55,360$ 108,119$ 205,476$
  • 19. ABC Company – Financials by Year ($000’s omitted) COPYRIGHT © 2014 ($25,000) $25,000 $75,000 $125,000 $175,000 $225,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenue Income Cash Milestone #1 Prototype Milestone #2 Pilots Milestone #3 Commercialization Seeking $250k Investment
  • 20. David A. Fogel, CPA  Serial entrepreneurial CFO  Managing Director of Swifton CFOs LLC (since 2009)  Experience with high tech companies ranging from biotech to telecom to healthcare IT to social media to…  Adjunct Instructor of Master’s Program:  Presenter & Mentor:  Member: COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 21. Provide cost-effective outsourced CFO support Clients range from pre-revenue startups to later stage privately held companies Goals (1) educate entrepreneurs to understand and consider financial opportunities and implications (2) handle all accounting/ financial matters so the entrepreneurs can focus on driving the business COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 22. Can we just forecast revenue annually? Why do we have to forecast revenue monthly?
  • 23. Customers Year # new clients # total clients Year 0 - - Year 1 3 3 Year 2 9 12 Year 3 25 37
  • 24. Customers Year # new clients # total clients J F M A M J J A S O N D Year 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Year 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Year 2 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Year 3 25 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
  • 25. Customers Year # new clients # total clients J F M A M J J A S O N D Year 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Year 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Year 2 9 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Year 3 25 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 • Are you really going to jump from 12 to 37 customers from Year 2 December to Year 3 January? Then why would you forecast it? Other reasons: • Timing and seasonality • Basis for cash forecasting
  • 26. Introducing the Financial Statements • Balance Sheet • Profit and Loss Statement • Cash Flow Statement COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 27. Balance Sheet  What you own/owe – point in time  Assets = Liabilities + Equity  Assets are good?  Capital expenditures (Fixed Asset) rule  Amount => $5,000 AND useful life > one year  Liabilities – Disclose, disclose, disclose COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 28. Profit and Loss Statement (Statement of Operations) • What you earned • Could represent cash activities but usually much more…… • Management accounting can be more informative, but need to have GAAP • Earnings can be managed, but cash is a reality… COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 29. Cash Flow Statement • Where your cash came and went: • Operations, Investing, or Financing • Cash in the bank is a fact • Investors are most interested in your use of $$ COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 30. Developing The Financial Forecast 1. Defined 2. What about the assumptions? 3. Creating the sales forecast 4. Spreading the numbers 5. Creating the statements COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 31. Ty Danco (Famous Investor) "I'll never believe your revenue numbers anyway, but I sure want to scrutinize your assumptions and expenses!" COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 32. Developing The Financial Forecast 1.What are financial projections? Collection of statements that present your business in numbers (IS, BS, CF, Cap) “Does the story make sense?” “Does the story add up?” COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 33. Set your goals from top down but….. Prepare the model from the bottom up then….start over with your top down goals COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 34. Developing The Financial Forecast 2. What about the assumptions? Document the source of each number you produce - Why? - Knowledge of the assumptions proves that the entrepreneur understands the business - Prove it to yourself Sources of assumptions - Desired goal to be obtained - Primary market research – surveys, vendor quotes - Second market research – purchased or gov’t information - Estimated or best guess (really try not to SWAG) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 35. Developing The Financial Forecast 2. What about the assumptions? (part 2) Start-up costs (uses of $) Financing (sources of $) Capital expenditures (costs with >1 yr life) Fixed expense (cost of being in business) Variable expense (cost of doing business) Projected sales (anticipated revenue earned) Cash flow (anticipated $ received and spent) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 36. • Expenses up to the point when you are open for business…….which is when? • List uses of money – describe how spent • Like: Fixed assets & Working Capital • Examples?  Fixed Assets = Equipment, Furniture  Working Capital = Rental deposits, Insurance Start-up cost assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 37. • Sources where $ will come from • Where?  Entrepreneur and team  F&F  Bank loan (though not likely for start-ups)  Debt from owner or outside creditor  Non-dilutive financing (maybe )  Equity capital • For loan – know amount, terms of repayment (mos), and rate of interest or return Financing assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 38. • Costs that have a “lifetime” greater than one year AND an individual or collective cost greater than $5k • Predict some fixed assets by headcount, some by significant changes in sales volume, some by changes in product lines, etc. • Examples: Leasehold improvements, Furniture & fixtures, Machinery • Note: Expense the PCs & Macs & iPads & iPhones (but keep track of them anyway) Capital Expenditures (Fixed Assets) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 39. • Costs of being in business • Do not vary by sales volume (i.e. day-to-day) • But DO increase as the business scales • Create fixed cost projections on monthly basis • Research through correspondence with outside vendors • Record the source & amount from each vendor…….. • Examples: Rent, Utilities, Salaries, Benefits, Marketing expenses, Administrative expenses Fixed cost assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 40. • Costs of doing business • May vary directly with sales volume • DO increase as the business scales • Expenses incurred with the next “unit” of product or service • Research through correspondence with outside vendors • Examples: Materials, direct/indirect labor, and shipping costs Variable cost assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 41.  What product(s) and/or service(s)  Quantities  Price  When (seasonality/cyclicality)?  T&C’s Projected sales assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 42. • Convert your business activity to cash activity • When will cash be collected from customers?  May vary by product line and by customer  Generally assume 45 days---though currently customers are extending to 60 days • When do you pay your vendor’s invoices?  May vary by product line and by vendor  Generally assume 30-45 days  Need to create “referenceable” vendors Cash flow assumptions COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 43. Ben Littauer Member, Boston Harbor Angels Member, LaunchPad "I like to see a business model spreadsheet with the assumptions clearly called out as variables. Then I can twiddle the knobs and see how sensitive profits are to the assumptions." COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 44. Developing The Financial Forecast 3. Creating the sales forecast BEST - Predict by customer as detailed as possible ….but include customer turnover BETTER – Predict by market COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 45. Developing The Financial Forecast 3. Creating the sales forecast (part 2) How do I start? Market research! • Trade associations • Primary & secondary research • Gov’t resources US Census Bureau IRS Statistical Data Select your geography COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 46. Developing The Financial Forecast 3. Creating the sales forecast (part 3) Small Client Medium Client Large Client Average Hours Per Week 4 Hours 8 Hours 16 Hours Average Contract $ Per Week $500 $1,250 $2,500 Predict by client (customer) types • By market • By size Then ID certain characteristics COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 47. Forecast Trap: Why they call them “Gross Sales” • Returns • Discounts • Coupons • Rebates • Chargebacks • Markdowns COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 48. Forecast Trap: Do not over-estimate first year revenue wait, we can’t sell $ millions in month one ? COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 49. Tip: Integration Must use an integrated model Headcount added Payroll and benefits calculation Summarized employee costs Income Statement Cash Flow COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 50. Question? Is the methodology Accrual or Cash? COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 51. Tip: Project payroll & benefits in detail • Payroll & benefits are often the most costly expense yet they are often neglected • Project monthly to handle start dates correctly (everyone cannot start in January) • Match people adds with milestones COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 52. Tip: Projection Numbers are not separate from the Company Plans Company Plans Milestone Projects Responsible Revenue/ Cost Dates COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 53. Multiple Model Trap: One investor model, Multiple options (triggers) Fundamental changes made in base model must be duplicated in the clones---and you will forget. If multiple scenarios are mandated do create at only a high level COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 54. Tip: Don’t forget the….. Sales commissions – Direct connect them to your sales staff’s (or sales rep) sales Bonuses – Include with payroll Recruiting expenses – Peg them to change in new employees Debt - Many forget to include Interest Expense on the income statement even though the Company has incurred Debt COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 55. Tip: Reasonableness 1. Once you think you are done take the smell test --- Do the numbers really make sense (i.e. can you really increase revenue w/o an increase in costs)? 2. Do the Like-Kind test. Compare your “metrics” versus your competition COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 56. Creating the Statements 1. Consider it a Marketing Effort 2. Present the Pro-Forma Financial Statement 3. Graph the Revenues, Income, and Cash 4. Present the Headcount COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 57. Don’t let GustTM blow you away……… 1. Set forecast in stone 2. Complete the boxes 3. Consistent with other docs and financials 4. Be able to back it up (details?) COPYRIGHT © 2014
  • 58.
  • 60.
  • 61. Even More Universal Truths: • Be consistent – Don’t portray cost categories (or individuals) differently by year • Have “Checks” • Do not need to be hung up with GAAP, but….don’t go rogue COPYRIGHT © 2015

Notas do Editor

  1. Accounting Timelineness Accrual vs. Cash GAAP vs. Non-GAAP? e.g. where do you book health insurance deduction from payroll? Salaries? Health insurance?
  2. Could represent cash or just a myth How creative is the accounting? Management accounting Standard Cost Accounting Activity Based Accounting Separating cost of sales/service from operating expenses
  3. See new employees, etc. Don’t fall into the yr-to-yr trap.
  4. See new employees, etc. Don’t fall into the yr-to-yr trap.