1. Thoughts on
Legal
Prediction
and Legal
Metrics
Metrics that Matter
Law Department Operations Meeting
@ computationalcomputationallegalstudies.comprofessor daniel martin katz
Sponsored By:
Association of Corporate Counsel
Huron Legal Consulting

2. Arc from

3. ~

4. Quantitative
Legal
Prediction

5. The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction
2011

6. 2011
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction

7. 2012
The Age of
Quantitative Legal Prediction

8. 2012

9. Quantitative Legal Prediction
- or -
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Start
Preparing for the Data Driven Future of the
Legal Services Industry
Daniel Martin Katz
Assistant Professor of Law
Michigan State University
2013

10. The Science of Prediction

11. Prediction is
much harder
than backward
looking
measures

12. Implicit
Prediction is
taking place all
of the time

16. Humans
+
Machines
Humans
or
Machines
>

20. Two Key Ideas
About
Prediction

21. (1) Inverse Problem
(2) System Dynamics

22. Hypothesis Testing
is the Core of
Mainstream Science

23. Deduction

24. Popperian
Falsification

25. Partial or
Complete Induction

26. Is the Alternative

28. In Case You
Did not Know

29. This is an
Inductive
Age

30. This is the Age of Aspirational Spelling
(Is Spelling 1.0 Thinking?)

32. (a) Induce a Plausible
Model from Existing Data

33. (b) Validate Model

34. Either:
Out of Sample
Forward Prediction
Or Both

36. (2) System Dynamics

37. Imagine Two Different
Complex Systems

38. Weather

39. Tides

40. vs.
Complex/ Predictable Complex / Chaotic
TIDES ALMANAC

41. Some Formal Treatment of
the Science of Prediction

42. Big Data in Legal?

43. Road Map to the Future

44. Five
Concrete
Applications
in Legal

45. Prediction of
Case Outcomes

46. Better Pricing Forensics

47. Second Generation
“Predictive Coding”

48. Mapping of Deal Drafting
to Substantive Outcomes

49. How Do We Truly Measure
Attorney Quality
+
Performance?

50. Daniel Martin Katz
Illinois Tech – Chicago Kent Law
Associate Professor of Law
@ computational
computationallegalstudies.com
danielmartinkatz.com
lexpredict.com