Finding Gold in "Leprechaun Economics": An analysis of Ireland's recent macroeconomic growth and subsequent market responses

Finding Gold in
“Leprechaun Economics”
An analysis of Ireland’s recent macroeconomic growth and
subsequent market responses
Daniel Tierney, M.B.A Candidate
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
daniel.tierney@alum.mit.edu
Independent Study Project
Faculty Advisor: Professor Christopher Noe
Spring 2017

“Finding Gold in ‘Leprechaun Economics’”
Daniel Tierney, 2017 M.B.A. Candidate
Agenda
• Executive Summary 2
• Project Summary
– Design 3
– Findings 4
– Prologue 5
• Background
– Ireland: 1845 to 2015 6
– The Mechanics of National Accounting 12
• Analysis
– 2015 Gross Domestic Product 16
– Factors Analysis 23
– Market Response
▪ Variable Selection & Hypotheses 30
▪ Results 35
• Sources 39
• Appendices 59
• Acknowledgements 103
1

Executive Summary
2
• On July 12, 2016, the Irish Central Statistics Office
(“CSO”) announced that Ireland’s GDP grew by
26.3% in 2015
• That same day, Nobel Laureate and MIT alumnus Paul
Krugman bemoaned the report as “leprechaun
economics”
• This project concludes that:
• 2015 GDP growth was likely caused by the
transfer of €300bn of capital assets to Ireland,
• those assets seemingly responsible included
intellectual property and patents owned by the
pharmaceutical company, Allergan, and the
computer manufacturer, Apple, and
• investors appeared to ignore the GDP news in
2015–just as they had in prior years
Photo Credit: Irishcentral.com
Source: Twitter.com

Project Design
3
Research Questions
• What caused Ireland’s GDP to
grow 26.3% in 2015?
• Is this figure accurate?
• Could the CSO have issued a
‘pro forma’ GDP?
• What particular industries or
entities (if known) were
responsible for this growth?
• Was this growth due to one-time
or recurring events?
• How should market response be
measured?
• Historically and in 2015, how
did markets react to expected
and announced GDP figures?
Primary Data Sources
• CSO, Eurostat, Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and
Development (“OECD”), The
World Bank
• CSO, corporate filings (10-Ks,
annual returns, etc.), Eurostat
• Bloomberg (specifically Irish,
English, and German
government bonds; the Irish
Stock Exchange; the London
Stock Exchange; and MSCI Inc.),
research papers
GDP Deconstruction
Factors Analysis
Market Response

Project Findings
4
Research Answers
• The one-time on-shoring of intellectual patent product (“IPP”) by technology
and pharmaceutical firms, such as Apple and Allergan, likely caused Ireland’s
2015 GDP growth
• While corporate inversions and airline leasing firms were credited for
increasing Irish GDP, their impact may have been exaggerated
• 2015 GDP growth will be assessed via the paradigm that bond yields
respond to ‘surprises’ and quarterly data stimulates equity return volatility
• Not only did investors disregard the 2015 GDP growth, but they seemed to
ignore national accounts news from the CSO over the past 15 years
• Ireland must produce data according to European System Accounts (“ESA”)
2010, creating opportunities for GDP to be influenced by foreign firms
• Irish 2015 GDP growth was due to asset transfers by multinational entities
(“MNEs”), increasing profits, depreciation, investment, exports, and imports
• An in-depth analysis is impaired, as much of the data is redacted
GDP Deconstruction
Factors Analysis
Market Response

Project Prologue: GNI*
5
• In February 2017, an expert panel
convened by the CSO, the Economic
Statistics Review Group (“ESRG”),
suggested the use of Gross National
Income* (“GNI*”) to “provide a better
understanding of the domestic components
of highly globalised Irish economy”
• Using the markets’ seemingly entrenched
disregard of GDP ‘surprise’ as a baseline, it
would be useful for policy makers to
examine investors’ reactions to the
upcoming release of GNI*
• If investors believe this new metric is
meaningful, they will respond accordingly
Source: Ireland CSO ESRG response presentation

Ireland: 1840 to 2015
6

Ireland’s Great Famine led to crippling population
loss and a century of rural poverty
7
• Pictured top left: The Rock County, Wisconsin
farm home of Nicholas and Mamie Tierney in the
early 20th century (Source: D. Tierney)
• Pictured right: Irish girls gathering turf in 1963
(Source: National Library of Ireland)
• Pictured bottom left: Famine walls still trace the
landscape of modern Ireland (Source: D. Tierney)
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
1845-1852:
Great Famine
1922: Irish
Free State
1937: Republic
of Ireland
1969-1998:
The Troubles
1995-2005:
Celtic Tiger
2008-2013:
Great Recession

The ‘Celtic Tiger’ years coincided with increased
FDI and a departure from an agrarian economy
8
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Agriculture (% of GDP) vs. High tech exports ($bn)
Data Sources: United Nations, World Bank
Agriculture (GDP %) High tech exports ($bn, in 2015 dollars)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Foreign Direct Investment (% of GDP)
Data Sources: OECD, World Bank
UK Ireland Ireland Corporate Tax Rate

The global financial crisis led to over three-fold
increases in Ireland’s debt and unemployment
9
Debt & Surplus
or Deficit
Unemployment
2009 to 20152005 to 2008
• Ireland’s gross
national debt
averaged
~€45bn from
2005 to 2007,
before nearly
doubling to
€80bn in 2007
• By 2015, Irish
household debt
had returned
to 2006 levels;
still, as of
2015, it was
among the EU’s
highest
• Jobs were
plentiful, with
foreign firms
seeking to
employ Ireland’s
educated,
English-speaking
workforce
• Unemployment
among Irish
youth rose even
higher than that
among older
citizens,
growing to
33% in 2012
3.6% 3.7% 3.8%
5.2%
10.1%
12.0%
12.9% 12.9%
11.6%
10.0%
8.3%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unemployment
Data Source: Ireland CSO
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Debt & Surplus or Deficit % of GDP at Q4
Surplus (Deficit) Debt

Furthermore, collapsing residential property values
preceded bank bailouts and austerity measures
10
Residential
Property Price
Values
2009 to 20152005 to 2008
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
55
75
95
115
135
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Residential Property Price Index
YoY % Change Properties outside Dublin Dublin properties
January 2005 = 100
• By 2007, the
housing bubble
had begun to
burst, as Dublin
real estate lost
value before
other, more rural
properties
• Though prices
were rebounding
by 2014, new
investment in
Dublin’s south
side reignited
pre-recession
concerns
• To meet home
loan demand,
banks’ foreign
borrowing hit
€110bn in
2008, a ~633%
increase over the
prior four years
• The Irish
government’s
guarantee of the
six largest banks’
debts ultimately
prompted a
Troika-backed
bailout
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Number of Approved New House Loans
Data Source: Ireland Dept. of the Env., Community & Local Gov’t
YoY % Change New House Loans
Home Loans

Outrage was directed at public officials; ousted
Fianna Fáil had dominated Irish politics since 1932
11
46%
12%
28%
31%
46%
31%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1989
1992
1997
2002
2007
2011
2016
Dáil Éireann election results by political party
Data Source: ElectionsIreland.org, author calculations
Sinn Féin Labour Party Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Others Independent
Controlling Party
Coalitions
Fianna Fáil-PD
Fianna Fáil-Labour
Fianna Fáil-PD
Fianna Fáil-PD
Fianna Fáil-PD-Green
Fine Gael-Labour
Fine Gael-Independent
With recession effects lingering, Ireland had achieved moderate
political stability and economic growth by 2015

The Mechanics of National
Accounting
12

The Eurostat publication, ESA 2010, provides the
framework used for EU members’ national accounts
13
Definition
Income
Approach
Production
(Output)
Approach
Section 8.89(c): “GDP is the sum of uses in the total
economy generation of income account
(compensation of employees, taxes on production
and imports less subsidies, gross operating surplus
and mixed income of the total economy).”
Section 8.89(a): “GDP is the sum of gross value
added of the various institutional sectors or the
various industries plus taxes and less subsidies on
products (which are not allocated to sectors and
industries).”
Expenditure
Approach
Section 8.89(b): “GDP is the sum of final uses of
goods and services by resident institutional units
(final consumption and gross capital formation),
plus exports and minus imports of goods and
services.”

Ireland computes GDP by Income and Expenditure,
with a Production estimate available for 2011
14
Chain Linking
• The real growth rate of each component’s output
and expenditure volume is calculated separately
• The component is then weighted by its current year
volume share, creating an average growth rate
• Finally, this average growth rate is applied to the
prior year’s real GDP to determine real GDP in the
current year
Value Added
• In presenting the Income Approach, the CSO
groups the agricultural/non-agricultural factor
payments by value added (i.e., the value created
above product costs)
• The Production Approach, in turn, is the difference
of output and intermediate consumption
• Ireland has begun the process of retroactively
calculating GDP via the Production Approach; an
estimate for 2015 will likely be available at the end
of the present decade
+ Company and self- employed
profits
+ Employee remuneration
+ Rent of dwellings
+ Stock appreciation
+ (-) Statistical discrepancy
Net value added at factor cost
+ Depreciation
Gross value added at factor cost
+ (-) Non product taxes
(subsidies)
Gross value added at basic prices
+ (-) Product taxes
(subsidies)
Gross domestic product at current
market prices
+ Personal expenditure on
consumers’ goods and
services
+ Expenditure by central and
local government on current
goods and services
+ Gross Domestic Fixed Capital
Formation (“GDFCF”)
+ Value of physical changes in
stocks
+ (-) Statistical discrepancy
+ (-) Exports
(Imports)
Gross domestic product at current
market prices
The statistical discrepancy is the difference between the Income and
Expenditure estimates; GDP is therefore an average of each Approach
in the National Income and Expenditure (“NIE”) Annual Results
Income Approach Expenditure ApproachKey Concepts

The adoption of ESA 2010 modified the accounting
treatment of intangibles and global supply chains
15
Category*
Research &
development
Goods sent
abroad for
processing
Merchanting
*The Manual on the changes between ESA 95 and ESA 2010 reports 25 significant differences
between the methodologies; of these,12 were said to have a potentially positive effect on GDP
• Taking effect in 2014 in place of ESA 95, ESA
2010 introduced two major changes to GDP
calculations: (i) the capitalization of R&D
(growing investments, e.g., GDFCF) and (ii) the
principle of economic ownership of goods
(increasing both exports and imports)
• While the CSO states that “the impact of ESA
2010 implementation on Ireland’s GDP level is
almost fully accounted for by the treatment of . .
. [R&D] expenditures,” a recent publication by
the OECD did not similarly fault the transition in
methodology for creating irregularities in
national account reporting
The changes in ESA, though necessary and well-informed, created
opportunities for Ireland’s GDP to be influenced by foreign firms
ESA 2010 treatment
“R&D expenditure is recognized as
capital investment,” increasing
GFDFC and depreciation
Such activities “do not impute a
change of ownership, but rather
show only one entry – an import of
the processing service”
Because there is a transfer in
economic ownership, these
transactions are recorded as
imports and exports of goods for the
temporary resident and non-resident
owners
ESA 95 treatment
“R&D expenditure . . . [was t]reated as
an ancillary cost to the main production
of an enterprise”
Goods sent abroad without a change in
ownership “were shown as exports on
being sent abroad, and then recorded as
imports on return from abroad”
If goods are sold by a non-resident owner
to a resident owner, who then resells to
another non-resident, and the goods do
not physically move, the difference
between the sale and acquisition price
was recorded as a service transaction

2015 Gross Domestic Product
16

The CSO acknowledged the 2015 GDP growth
was unprecedented in both Irish and EU history
• 2015 NIE: GDP was announced at 11am on July 12, 2016
▪ The 26.3% real increase revised the 7.8% March estimate
▪ Real GNP also rose by 18.7%
• Redactions: The CSO suppressed certain industry details that may have
identified specific firms, given the “overall scale of [the] additions” and
its legal obligations
• CSO followed regulations: While acknowledging that GDP did not
provide “sufficient understanding of the domestic economy,” the CSO
initially declared it could not deviate from the ESA 2010’s rubric
• ‘Step shift’: By September 2016, the CSO began referring to the 2015
increase as a ‘step shift’ to emphasize a belief that growth would not
retreat from this level and that future shifts may reoccur
• ESRG: In early 2017, the expert group convened by the CSO presented
GNI* to account for retained earnings of re-domiciled firms and
depreciation on foreign-owned, domestic assets
17
94%
80%
Original and Revised Debt/Deficit Ratios
Data Sources: The Irish Times, Ireland CSO
2.3%
1.8%
Flowchart Explaining GDP Increase
Graphic Source: 2015 NIE Explanatory Note
July 2016March 2016
Debt to GDP
Deficit to GDP

The movement of ~€300bn in capital assets to
Ireland was responsible for the surge in GDP
18
82%
19%
22%
9%
7%
2014
(8.0% growth)
51%
2015
(28.3% growth)
Real Gross Value Added Growth, at
Factor Cost, by Sector of Origin (%)
Data Sources: Ireland CSO (2015 NIE Tables 4,
4.1), author calculations
Other services (including rent)
Distribution, transport, software and communication
Industry (exluding Building and construction)
603
2014
(€756bn)
2015
(€1,052bn)
172
584
+296
449
Total Real Gross Capital
Stock by Industry (€bn)
Data Sources: Ireland CSO,
author calculations
Others (includes 17 groups)
Administrative & Support
Service Activities;
Manufacturing
• According to the ESRG report, “the
level shift in GDP of 26[%] in
2015 was largely a consequence
of the relocations of entire balance
sheets to Ireland from outside of
the EU and the activity related to
these relocations,” with these
balance sheets “dominated by
intellectual property”
• Industry and asset specific details
regarding the accumulation of that
capital stock were suppressed
• However, because only 12% of the
2015 GDP’s 28.3% total Gross
Value Added (“GVA”) growth was
domestic, growth in the Industry
sector was dominated by the
activities of foreign-owned MNEs
Foreign-owned (88%)
195
559
479
+298
2015
(€1,052bn)
573
2014
(€756bn)
Transportation Equipment;
Intangible Fixed Assets
(Research & Development)
Others (includes 5 groups)
Total Real Gross Capital
Stock by Asset Type (€bn)
Data Sources: Ireland CSO,
author calculations

Exports
Imports*
Net Operating Surplus
and Mixed Income
(includes Domestic
Trading Profits)
GDFCF
Consumption of Fixed
Capital (i.e., Provision
for Depreciation)
1x
6x
11x
16x
21x
26x
31x
36x
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
EU avg. growth
rate = 1x
2015 Nominal Growth
Key drivers of 2015 GDP growth via Income and Expenditure Approaches,
relative to EU average rates
Data sources: Eurostat, Ireland CSO, author calculations
Circles = €bn
Those assets, in turn, grew five elements across the
Expenditure and Income approaches to Irish GDP
19
• The primary categories that
caused the increase in Ireland’s
2015 GDP were:
(1) domestic profits,
(2) depreciation,
(3) GDFCF,
(4) exports, and
(5) imports.
• The jump in the consumption of
fixed capital was an outlier
domestically and abroad; its
growth was 27 times larger than
the average rate of increase for
depreciation expense across the
European Union’s member states
Income ApproachExpenditure Approach
*Absolute value
shown, as effect on
GDP is negative

Via the Income Approach, the assets caused more
profits and depreciation to be recognized in Ireland
20
193,160
30,891
52,302
Product taxes
(minus
subsidies)
255,815
+42%
GDP at
current
market prices
61,558
75,398
+99%
Wages and
salaries
Employers’
contribution
to social
insurance
Rent element
in land
annuities
Rent of
dwellings
(actual and
imputed)
Adjustment
for stock
appreciation
Domestic
trading
profits of
companies
Wages and
salaries
Employers’
contribution
to social
insurance
Income
from self-
employment
and other
trading
income
Self
employed
earnings
Non product
taxes
(minus
subsidies)
DepreciationStatistical
discrepancy
2014 (nominal €m)
2015 growth (nominal €m)
Agricultural value added Non-agricultural value added
The CSO historically provided Net Value Added at Factor Cost by Sector
of Origin (e.g., sector-specific remuneration of employees, adjustments for
stock appreciation, and ‘other’). The July 2016 release, however,
“suppressed [these results] for confidentiality.” Other data show gross
Industry sector income (i.e., including depreciation) increased nominally
from 41 billion euros in 2014 to 92 billion euros in 2015. Therefore, the
redaction notwithstanding, most of this growth–the depreciation expense of
relocated capital assets–was ‘other’ within Industry.
GVA at
Factor Cost
GDP
Data Sources:
Ireland CSO (2015
NIE Tables 1-3,11),
author calculations

The Expenditure Approach showed increasing
imports were offset by greater exports and GDFCF
21
193,160
-185,182
219,790
39,572
255,815
-235,985
317,197
54,103
Net expenditure by
central and local
government on current
goods and services
Final consumption
expenditure of
Households and
NPISHs
Imports of goods
and services
Exports of goods
and services
Final consumption
expenditure of
government
Value of physical
changes in stocks
Statistical discrepancyGross domestic
fixed capital
formation (GDFCF)
+27%
+44%
+37%
GDP at current
market prices
€0
2015 (nominal €m)
2014 (nominal €m)
Roughly €12bn of GDFCF was Research and Development
split between the Market Services and Manufacturing
Products sectors; in addition, at least one economist
highlighted the incongruity of accumulating €300bn in
capital assets through ~€54bn in investment (Coffey)
Approximately 75% of
exports were created
by MNEs
In 2014, imports were driven by “purchases
of aircraft by resident operational leasing
companies,” while some combination of plane
acquisitions and shifting intangible assets to
Ireland continued this trend in 2015
Data Source:
Ireland CSO
(2015 NIE Tables
5, 15, 16)

Observers bemoaned Ireland’s national accounts
figures as the casualties of globalization
• Many economists and analysts used other CSO-produced
metrics, such as personal consumption growth at 4.5%, to
conclude that the “actual” Irish economy expanded
between 4% and 5% in 2015
22
“Gross domestic blarney.”
– The Economist
“Leprechaun
economics.”
– Paul Krugman,
Nobel Prize
laureate
“It’s complete
bullshit.”
– Colm McCarthy,
economics
professor
Experts Respond
“It’s meaningless–we would
be laughing [if this were
China’s GDP growth].”
– Jim Power, economist
5.8% 5.9% 3.8%
-4.4% -4.6%
2.0%
0.0% -1.1%
1.1%
8.5%
26.3%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Growth Rates of Real GDP, Nominal
Corporate Tax Receipts, Consumption, and Earnings
Data Sources: World Bank, Eurostat, Ireland CSO
Real GDP Final Consumption Expenditure
Average Total Earnings Nominal Corporate Tax(2009-2015)
Ireland’s ESA 2010-compliant 2015 GDP growth was the result of
asset transfers by MNEs; however, data redactions impair analyses

Factors Analysis
23

Ireland’s fiscal and pro-business policies have been
called into question by the international community
24
• Given the potential scrutiny from initiatives like OECD’s
“BEPS” (Base Erosion and Profit Shifting) Project, Ireland
has recently taken steps to make its public/private
commercial arrangements more transparent and align its
low-rate tax regime with the rest of the world
• For example, in 2015, lawmakers closed the “Double
Irish” structure, a strategy wherein one Irish firm funneled
profits through a second Irish firm that itself was a foreign
tax resident; affected entities have until 2020 to comply
• Nevertheless, in August, 2016, after a two-year
investigation, the European Commission (“EC”)
determined that Ireland had given State aid in the form of
favorable tax agreements to subsidiaries of the tech
company, Apple
• Apple would be responsible for ~€14bn in taxes, though
the company and Ireland will appeal the decision
12.5%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Ireland
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Croatia
Estonia
Finland
United Kingdom
Portugal
Slovakia
Sweden
Denmark
Austria
Netherlands
Spain
Greece
Luxembourg
Germany
Italy
France
Belgium
Malta
2015 Headline Corporate Tax Rates of EU Members
Data Source: KPMG
EU Average ~ 22%

As revealed by the EC investigation, tax law
changes may have caused Apple to ‘onshore’ IPP
25
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 MNE* Corporate Tax Payments
Data Source: Ireland Dept. of Rev.
% of Net Corporate Tax Paid by MNE Cumulative % of MNE Firms in Each Bracket
• The August 2016 EC ruling states: “In a meeting on 9 January
2015, Apple presented its new corporate structure in Ireland . .
. [that] was put into place as a consequence of the modification
of [a law that facilitated the creation of “stateless” firms similar
to, but distinct from, produced by the ”Double Irish” tactic], as
from 1 January 2015, as a result of which an Irish incorporated
company could no longer declare its tax, residence to be
outside of Ireland, while not having any place of tax residency
anywhere else, as was the case for [the two Apple subsidiaries
being investigated].” (emphasis added)
• With this new structure, Apple likely moved its assets–IPP, per
the EC decision–to Ireland while offsetting its newly Irish profits
(and taxes**) with depreciation
• Critically, the timing of this activity coincided with the increase
in Ireland’s 2015 GDP, most of which occurred in Q1, as well
as rising profits, depreciation, and intangible capital assets
• The CSO has not commented on the possible link between tax
receipts, GDP, and Apple (Irish Examiner, referencing Whelan)
*~80% of all corporate tax receipts came from MNEs
**Though note growing fixed capital consumption would reduce tax liability (Casey & Hannon (2016))
21.4%
-0.4%
3.1% 2.3%
6.5% 7.3%
-1.4%
3.1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 GDP/GNP Revised Growth per Quarter
Graph Sources: Irish Times, Ireland CSO
GDP GNP
s

Assets also shifted after an acquisition by Allergan
who, like Apple, employs contract manufacturing
26
15 17
13
5
3 1
71
2014 2015*
Computer, electronic & optical products (NACE Code 26)
Machinery & equipment n.e.c. (NACE Code 28)
Basic pharmaceutical products
& pharmaceutical preparations (NACE code 21)
Other Manufacturing subindustries
Furniture; other manufacturing; repair & installation of machinery
& equipment (NACE Codes 31-33)
Nominal Gross Value Added within
Manufacturing Subindustries (€bn)
Data Sources: Ireland CSO (2015 NIE Table 22), author
calculations, Honohan draft note
*Subindustry data redacted
1 3
5
4
6 After Dublin-based pharmaceutical
company Actavis purchased
Allergan (and assumed the latter’s
name) for $70.5bn in 2015, the
new firm reported increased IPP
and goodwill by ~$75bn2
1. A U.S. entity transfers economic ownership of patents or product
designs to subsidiaries in Ireland, adding to the Irish capital asset stock
2. Irish subsidiaries pay a transfer fee in exchange for this intellectual property
3. The IPP is used by a subcontracted foreign (e.g., China) firm for assembly
4. Imports, including royalties or manufacturing services, accrue in Ireland
5. The product is sold to an international consumer (e.g., in the U.S.); because
economic ownership never left Ireland, the sale is considered an Irish export
6. Profits are counted in Ireland until repatriated in the U.S.
How foreign manufacturing uses IPP to add value in Ireland

One popular justification for GDP growth,
corporate inversions, may have been overstated
27
• According to the CSO, capital assets rose in
2015 due, in part, to “[c]orporate restructuring
both through imports of individual assets and also
reclassifications of entire balance sheets”
• The impact of inversions and differing accounting
standards for portfolio vs. directly owned firms
has been the subject of recent scholarly debate
(FitzGerald (2013); (2016))
• For example, if an inverted firm is owned by
foreign shareholders and its retained earnings are
not distributed to international shareholders, its
revenue is not “immediately visible in the current
account” and GNP is consequently pushed
upward (Lane (2016))
• But while inversions in 2015 drove a portion of
the ~€23bn growth in domestic profits, there was
a similar rise in outflow of net factor income
(Coffey), increasing the GDP/GNP gap
“Under a typical inversion deal, a United States company
takes over a foreign counterpart and, in the process, shifts
its headquarters overseas. The takeover targets for such
deals are typically based in countries with low corporate
taxes . . . [t]he combined company’s global profits are
then reported in its new home base, regardless of where
they are earned.” – The New York Times
The effect of corporate inversions
• In January 2015,
Medtronic, the second-
largest medical devices
maker acquired the assets
and ‘Irish address’ of
Massachusetts-based
hospital supplier, Covidien
• Each firm’s key personnel
worked in the U.S., and
Medtronic still operates
out of Minneapolis
$42.9bn
(stock/cash)
$61bn (June 2014
market cap)
$32bn (June 2014
market cap)
Ireland’s only major corporate inversion in 2015*
*The Actavis-Allergan deal was not, technically, an inversion
Nominal GNP (€bn)
Data Source: Ireland CSO NIE 2015
30
2015 203 53
2014 193
GNP Net Factor Income (outflow)

Increased FDI, rather than corporate inversions,
explained rising net factor outflows in 2015
28
19.9
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2012 2013 2014 2015
FDI Inbound and Outbound Flows (€bn)
Equity (Outbound) Equity (Inbound)
Reinvested Earnings (Outbound) Reinvested Earnings (Inbound)
Other Capital (Outbound) Other Capital (Inbound)
Net Flow ( - Outbound)
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Inflows Outflows Inflows Outflows Inflows Outflows Inflows Outflows
2012 2013 2014 2015
Direct Investment Income Flows (€bn)
Data Sources: Ireland CSO, author calculations
Luxembourg Netherlands United States
Offshore centers Others
However, the 2015 increase in “income outflows of foreign-owned
direct investment enterprises” to €60bn, against inflows of €16bn,
likely accounted for much of the €23bn net factor outflow growth
Partially due to this financing, Irish stocks of
direct investment abroad grew €315 in 2015;
according to the CSO, this “increase [continued]
to be driven by the Redomiciled PLCs in Ireland”
The growth in 2015 GDFCF may have been
the result of subsequent investments (e.g.,
capitalized R&D) made by Irish subsidiaries
- €44bn net
- €23bn net
To Ireland
From Ireland

There is also conflicting evidence regarding the
impact of airline leasing firms on 2015 Irish GDP
29
The one-time on-shoring of IPP by tech and pharma firms such as
Apple and Allergan likely caused Ireland’s 2015 GDP growth
Substantial Insubstantial • Per ESA 2010, Irish airline leasing firm purchases
count as imports and add to the capital stock, while
lease income (and depreciation) flow as exports
• Airline leasing activity is normally evident in the
type (‘Transportation Equipment’) or industry
category (‘Administrative & Support Services
Activities’) of new capital assets; however, as
described previously, this information was redacted
for the €300bn assets added in 2015
• While The Irish Times reported that AerCap
“redomiciled the bulk of its €39 billion in assets,” an
expert noted that ’Other services,’ which includes
airline leasing, “[accounted] for only ten [%] of the
increase in gross value added” in 2015 (Coffey)
“Official GDP growth of 26% in 2015 was
largely the result of lessors buying so many
new planes.” – The Economist
A CSO press release accompanying NIE
2015 data cited “an increase in the number
of new aircraft imports into Ireland for
international leasing activities” to explain
changes in GDP
“. . . [T]he aircraft leasing sector was
not the predominant contributor to recent
revisions in Irish macroeconomic statistics . .
.” – The Central Bank of Ireland
A CSO PowerPoint accompanying NIE
2015 data noted “[a]ircraft [were] down
approximately [€]1,830m [from 2014]”
while capital formation of ‘Transport
equipment,’ which includes aircraft, fell 8%

Market Response: Variable
Selection & Hypotheses
30

Macroeconomic ‘surprises’ are created by
differences between actual and expected GDP
31
• The days in which the CSO announces estimated or final national
accounts statistics will be referred to as “Release Dates”
• Specifically, on Release Dates between Sept. 2001 and July 2016,
market reactions will be judged against the real* differences
between expected/actual annual GDP (a ”GDPSurpriseT” at day
T); while the CSO often adjusts prior quarterly forecasts, for
simplicity, these backward-looking revisions will not be considered
• The statistical significance of this particular analysis is impaired by
the small number (i.e., 15) of values of the yearly GDPSurpriseT
2015 GDP/GNP Release Date Schedule
Source: Ireland CSO
T = July 12, 2016: CSO
releases 2016 Q1 results and
final 2015 annual results
T = Dec. 10, 2015:
CSO releases 2015
Q3 results
T = Mar. 10, 2016: CSO
releases 2015 Q4 results
and 2015 annual estimates
-15.0%
-7.5%
0.0%
7.5%
15.0%
22.5%
30.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real GNP Surprises (for years 2001-2015)
Predicted Change (%) Actual Change (%) Difference (%-%)
-15.0%
-7.5%
0.0%
7.5%
15.0%
22.5%
30.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real GDP Surprises (for years 2001-2015)
Predicted Change (%) Actual Change (%) Difference (%-%)
*Much of the news-making CSO data–e.g., the 26.3% 2015 GDP growth–are presented in real terms,
with prices typically linked to those of the prior two years (though up until 2005, prices were linked to
1995); compare this with the analysis of Tease (1993), which relied on nominal GDP
GDPSurpriseT

Though quarterly GDP lack projections that create
‘surprises,’ their magnitude may affect stock trading
32
• The absolute value of GDP change from the corresponding
period of the prior year is noted as “GDPPriorYearT”
• In Q2 2003, the CSO began seasonally-adjusting quarterly
growth (this absolute value is “GDPPriorQuarterT”)
• As noted previously, while the CSO does not create forward
projections of quarterly fluctuations, equity volatility may still
correlate with the size (i.e., absolute value) of GDP movement
• Further, following the disaggregation approach of Anderton,
et al. (2014) used to measure Okun’s Law, quarterly changes
in GNP and certain key components** could also provide
significant insights
• Finally, given Britain’s influence, data concerning10-year gilts
(“GiltDeltaT”) and the FTSE (“FTSEDeltaT”) may be relevant
*This data was collected from Ireland CSO press releases and reflects the changes at those times. To reiterate: subsequent revisions may significantly and retroactively alter the same statistics in later releases.
**On the annual Release Date for NIE 2011, the CSO noted that “[i]n compliance with EU regulations the Nace Rev. 2 classification system is used . . . [replacing the previously used] national classification system.”
Accordingly, “[t]he ‘Software’ industry was also included in ‘Other Services’ in the old National Classification but is now part of the new category ‘Distribution transport, software and communications’ in the NACE rev
2 classification. The overall effect on the tables has been that the ‘Distribution, transport, software and Communications’ sector accounts now for a much larger share of the total GVA of the economy than heretofore
while the sectors classified as ‘Industry’ and ‘Other Services’ account for a lower share.”
Q2 2012, -29.4%
Q3 2009, -35.0%
Q3 2015, 35.8%
Q1 2001, 26.0%
-40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
GDP
GNP
Household Consumption
Government Consumption
Investment
Exports
Imports
Industry
DTC
Other services (including rent)
Largest Yearly (Q1 2001-Q4 2015) and Seasonally-
Adjusted Quarterly (Q2 2003-Q4 2015) Changes*
Data Sources: Ireland CSO
Quarter on Quarter Quarter on Quarter
Year on Year Year on Year

Market responses to GDP releases can be found in
Irish gov’t bond spreads and ISEQ return volatility
33
• “BondDeltaT” will be the difference of the daily change of spreads
of Irish 10-year gov’t bonds over 10-year Bunds (i.e., the risk free
rate) and average changes of the prior three days (i.e., trends)
• This variable will then be regressed on GDPSurpriseT
• Because sales of 10-year Irish bonds were suspended on annual
Release Dates in 2007 and 2012, Irish 2- and 5-year gov’t bonds
will approximate those missing BondDeltaT values
• “ISEQDeltaT” will be the difference of the absolute value of daily
Irish Stock Exchange Overall Index volatility (i.e., high/low prices
versus closing prices), the similar volatility of the MSCI World
Index (representing macroeconomic shifts), and average changes
of the prior three days (i.e., trends); this variable will be regressed,
separately, on both GDPPriorQuarterT and GDPPriorYearT
• Critically, this assumes large (either positive or negative) quarterly
changes positively correlate with increased equity return volatility
Amb. Michael Collins
formally rebuts U.S. report
that Ireland is a tax haven
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Irish and English Stock Indices
Data Source: Bloomberg
FTSE ISEQ ISEQ Volume (in billions of trades, on the right axis)
Ireland’s first reissuance
of 10-year bonds
following the EU bailout
was considerably
oversubscribed
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
18.0%
Irish, English, and German Gov’t Bond Yields
Data Source: Bloomberg
10-Year Bunds 10-Year Gilts
10-Year Irish Gov't Bonds (from 2-Year Bonds) 10-Year Irish Gov't Bonds (from 5-Year Bonds)
10-Year Irish Government Bonds

Assumptions regarding determinants and reflections
of market sentiment inform the following hypotheses
34
2015 GDP growth will be assessed via the paradigm that bond
yields respond to ‘surprises’ and quarterly data move equities
Null
Hypothesis H0
1
Independent Variables
GDPPriorYearT (%)
GDPPriorQuarterT (%)
GDPSurpriseT (%)
• Using least squares regression (α ~ p-value = .05), on
quarterly Release Dates from Sept. 2001 to July 2016,
greater GDPPriorYearT did not lead to greater ISEQDeltaT
• Using least squares regression (α ~ p- value = .05), on
annual Release Dates from Sept. 2001 to July 2016,
greater GDPSurpriseT did not lead to greater BondDeltaT
In light of H0
3, the key issue here is whether the surprise concerning the
extraordinary 2015 GDP growth changed 10-year Irish gov’t bond yields;
in other words, did quantitative reactions mirror qualitative skepticism?
Dependent Variables
ISEQDeltaT (bps) BondDeltaT (bps)
Other Explanatory Variables
FTSEDeltaT (bps)
PriorYearT and PriorQuarterT (%) of:
• GNP
• Household Consumption
• Government Consumption
• Investment
• Exports
• Imports
• Industry
• DTC
• Other Services
BondDeltaT (bps)
SurpriseT (%) for:
• GNP
• Household Consumption
• Government Consumption
• Investment
• Exports
• Imports
• Industry
• DTC
• Other Services
Null
Hypothesis H0
2
Null
Hypothesis H0
3
• Using least squares regression (α ~ p-value = .05), on
quarterly Release Dates from Sept. 2001 to July 2016,
greater GDPPriorQuarterT did not lead to greater ISEQDeltaT

Market Response: Results
35

Discounting outliers, ISEQ volatility is not correlated
with changing GDP or Irish household consumption
36
• The p-values for the regressions on GDPPriorYearT (Figure 1) and
GDPPriorQuarterT (Figure 2) indicate H0
1 and H0
2 cannot be
rejected
• Though H0
1 seemingly would be rejected at p-value = .1,
removing one outlier, occurring in Q1 2001, causes this p-value
to rise from .0504 to .8615
• Similarly, though ISEQDeltaT regressed on
HouseholdConsumptionPriorQuarterT appears significant at α ~
p-value = .05 (Figure 3), when accounting for outliers in Q2
2008 and Q1 2009, the p-value of the regression increases to
.1463 (Figure 4)
• This is unsurprising, given the lack of fit reflected by the
regressions’ low r-squared values of .1273 and .0434 (which
include and exclude the outliers, respectively)
• These results bolster the conclusion that while market
participants may have considered swings in domestic
consumption marginally more important than changes in GDP,
neither independent variable, on its own, was a prominent
contributor to equity volatility
Figure 3 Figure 4
Figure 1 Figure 2
p-value = .0094 p-value = .1463
Q2 2008
Q1 2009

Bond yields did not respond to the 2015 ‘surprise,’
nor did they react to GDP news in prior years
37
• There is little correlation between GDPSurpriseT and
BondDeltaT (.-17); furthermore, the p-value of the regression
(Figure 5) shows H0
3 cannot be rejected
• Though none of the simple linear regressions are significant
at α ~ p-value = .05, ImportsSurpriseT had the highest
(negative) correlation (-.45) to BondDeltaT, while the former
regressed on the latter would be significant at α ~ p-value =
.1 (Figure 6)
• While this result may be noise, given the prominence and
importance of Ireland’s trade surplus, the direction of the
ImportsSurpriseT coefficient supports the premise that “yields
will rise on signs of stronger economic conditions or faster
than-anticipated inflation” (Goldberg (2003))
• When data for the year 2010 were announced on annual
Release Dates in 2011, BondDeltaT was being driven up by
Ireland’s political and fiscal strife, and not by CSO statistics
(Figure 7 and Figure 8)
• Just like data from prior years, the GDPSurpriseT associated
with 2015 GDP growth did not affect bond yields (Figure 7)
Figure 5 Figure 6
2015
2010
Figure 7 Figure 8

Analysts should consider additional steps when
evaluating the pending market reaction to GNI*
38
• Assessments made by Dr. Krugman and others in the summer of 2016 may have been
beside the point: whether Ireland’s 2015 GDP growth was an accurate portrayal of
national fiscal health or merely “leprechaun economics,” the foregoing suggests that
investors simply did not care
• These preliminary findings support other work which concluded that markets are less
sensitive to GDP news than they are to unemployment, inflation, or interest rate
information (Ahmmed (2012); Agudelo, et al. (2014); Chun (2010))
• More importantly, these results are not an indictment of the CSO’s credibility; instead,
they are evidence that international policies (e.g., Brexit, U.S. tax laws), not economic
indicators which are dominated by foreign-owned MNEs, move Ireland’s equity and
debt benchmarks
• As of April 2017, the CSO was scheduled to release GNI* this upcoming summer; time
will tell whether investors will respond similarly to that announcement
Though neither debt nor equity investors reacted to GDP growth
surprises in 2015 or prior years, more research is required
• Alternative projections:
Quarterly or semiannual
estimates from other
public (e.g., Central
Bank of Ireland) or
private sources would
create more data
• Conflicting news
controls: The potential
countervailing effects of
good and bad surprises,
or revised forecasts,
should be isolated (e.g.,
when strong annual
numbers are offset by
weaker quarterly
numbers provided on the
same day)
• CDS: Future studies
should consider
movement in Irish credit
default swaps,
particularly given how
low interest rates have
fallen
• Intraday data: Spikes in
volatility or prices may
occur within the hours (or
minutes) immediately
after the information is
made public at 11am
GMT+1
Potential Research Improvements

Sources
39

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58

Appendix
59

Select Manufacturing NACE Rev. 2 Codes
60
21 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
2110 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products
2120 Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations
26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
2611 Manufacture of electronic components
2612 Manufacture of loaded electronic boards
2620 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment
2630 Manufacture of communication equipment
2640 Manufacture of consumer electronics
2651 Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation
2652 Manufacture of watches and clocks
2660 Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and electrotherapeutic equipment
2670 Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment
2680 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media
28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
2811 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft, vehicle and cycle engines
2812 Manufacture of fluid power equipment
2813 Manufacture of other pumps and compressors
2814 Manufacture of other taps and valves
2815 Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and driving elements
2821 Manufacture of ovens, furnaces and furnace burners
2822 Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment
2823 Manufacture of office machinery and equipment (except computers and peripheral equipment)
2824 Manufacture of power-driven hand tools
2825 Manufacture of non-domestic cooling and ventilation equipment
2829 Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery n.e.c.
2830 Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery
2841 Manufacture of metal forming machinery
2849 Manufacture of other machine tools
2891 Manufacture of machinery for metallurgy
2892 Manufacture of machinery for mining, quarrying and construction
2893 Manufacture of machinery for food, beverage and tobacco processing
2894 Manufacture of machinery for textile, apparel and leather production
2895 Manufacture of machinery for paper and paperboard production
2896 Manufacture of plastics and rubber machinery
2899 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery n.e.c.
31 Manufacture of furniture
3101 Manufacture of office and shop furniture
3102 Manufacture of kitchen furniture
3103 Manufacture of mattresses
3109 Manufacture of other furniture
32 Other manufacturing
3211 Striking of coins
3212 Manufacture of jewelry and related articles
3213 Manufacture of imitation jewelry and related articles
3220 Manufacture of musical instruments
3230 Manufacture of sports goods
3240 Manufacture of games and toys
3250 Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and supplies
3291 Manufacture of brooms and brushes
3299 Other manufacturing n.e.c.
33 Repair and installation of machinery and equipment
3311 Repair of fabricated metal products
3312 Repair of machinery
3313 Repair of electronic and optical equipment
3314 Repair of electrical equipment
3315 Repair and maintenance of ships and boats
3316 Repair and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft
3317 Repair and maintenance of other transport equipment
3319 Repair of other equipment
3320 Installation of industrial machinery and equipment

Irish National Accounts Statistics 2001-2015 (1/8)
61
GDP GNP Household Consumption Government Consumption
Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual
Date Release Event
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
9/28/2001 Q1 2001 13.2% 11.6% 5.7% 6.9%
11/28/2001 Q2 2001 9.2% 1.6% 5.5% 4.5%
2/28/2002 Q3 2001 3.2% 4.6% 4.8% 6.7%
4/30/2002 Q4 2001 & Prediction 2001 0.0% 5.9% 3.8% 5.0% 5.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.4%
7/31/2002 Q1 2002 2.9% 1.6% 3.6% 5.3%
10/10/2002 Actual 2001 5.7% -0.2% 4.6% -0.4% 5.1% 0.3% 10.8% 5.4%
11/7/2002 Q2 2002 6.5% 4.0% 2.3% 9.1%
1/31/2003 Q3 2002 6.9% -0.3% 2.6% 7.5%
5/1/2003 Q4 2002 & Prediction 2002 6.4% 6.3% -2.3% 0.6% 1.2% 2.6% 6.9% 8.3%
7/15/2003 Actual 2002 6.9% 0.6% 0.1% -0.5% 2.7% 0.1% 9.4% 1.1%
7/31/2003 Q1 2003 0.5% 0.8% 1.8% 4.4%
10/30/2003 Q2 2003 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 3.1% 0.3% 2.1% 0.7% 2.7%
1/19/2004 Q3 2003 -1.3% -0.1% -0.4% 3.6% 1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 2.8%
3/31/2004 Q4 2003 & Prediction 2003 3.1% 2.7% 1.4% 2.0% 5.5% 3.3% 0.5% 2.4% 1.9% -0.1% 1.9% 2.1%
7/1/2004 Q1 2004 & Actual 2003 0.6% 6.1% 3.7% 2.3% 1.5% 5.1% 2.8% -0.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.6% 0.7% 1.7% 3.9% 2.5% 0.4%
9/30/2004 Q2 2004 0.3% 4.1% 0.5% 4.2% 0.0% 2.2% 1.1% 3.7%
12/22/2004 Q3 2004 -0.7% 5.8% -0.4% 4.2% 0.5% 2.8% 0.4% 2.5%
3/31/2005 Q4 2004 & Prediction 2004 2.0% 2.8% 4.9% 5.1% 7.1% 5.5% -0.1% 3.1% 3.2% 1.4% 3.7% 2.9%
7/28/2005 Q1 2005 & Actual 2004 0.3% 2.4% 4.5% -0.4% 0.9% 3.9% 4.0% -1.5% 3.3% 5.8% 3.8% 0.6% 1.1% 4.3% 2.4% -0.5%
9/30/2005 Q2 2005 1.6% 4.1% -0.7% 3.1% -0.2% 4.7% 0.4% 2.6%
12/22/2005 Q3 2005 0.3% 4.8% 3.1% 7.0% 1.9% 6.5% 1.3% 3.6%
3/30/2006 Q4 2005 & Prediction 2005 1.9% 5.7% 4.7% 0.5% 5.7% 5.4% 0.5% 6.2% 5.6% 0.4% 2.8% 3.1%
7/13/2006 Q1 2006 & Actual 2005 1.1% 5.8% 5.5% 0.8% 1.4% 7.0% 5.4% 0.0% 2.6% 6.0% 6.6% 1.0% 2.4% 3.7% 4.6% 1.5%
9/28/2006 Q2 2006 0.9% 5.0% 1.8% 9.0% 1.6% 6.7% 1.4% 4.8%
12/21/2006 Q3 2006 2.6% 7.7% 0.3% 5.4% -0.1% 4.5% 1.2% 5.8%
3/28/2007 Q4 2006 & Prediction 2006 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.9% 7.5% 7.4% 1.9% 6.3% 6.2% 0.3% 3.9% 4.1%
7/3/2007 Q1 2007 & Actual 2006 4.7% 7.5% 5.7% -0.3% 2.8% 6.4% 6.5% -0.9% 1.2% 5.4% 5.7% -0.5% 2.5% 5.8% 5.3% 1.2%

62
Investment Exports Imports
Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual
Date Release Event
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
9/28/2001 Q1 2001 13.0% 22.2% 21.5%
11/28/2001 Q2 2001 0.0% 12.5% 2.6%
2/28/2002 Q3 2001 -5.6% 5.3% 5.5%
4/30/2002 Q4 2001 & Prediction 2001 -2.3% 0.5% -1.3% 8.4% 3.1% 7.7%
7/31/2002 Q1 2002 -5.1% 8.3% 5.7%
10/10/2002 Actual 2001 -0.5% -1.0% 6.7% -1.7% 6.1% -1.6%
11/7/2002 Q2 2002 -1.1% 4.8% 2.6%
1/31/2003 Q3 2002 2.1% 7.7% 1.5%
5/1/2003 Q4 2002 & Prediction 2002 1.1% 0.4% -1.8% 3.8% -8.4% -1.0%
7/15/2003 Actual 2002 1.7% 1.3% 6.2% 2.4% 2.3% 3.3%
7/31/2003 Q1 2003 -12.4% -12.8% -13.7%
10/30/2003 Q2 2003 6.3% -5.7% 2.7% -8.1% 2.8% -11.4%
1/19/2004 Q3 2003 5.8% -2.0% 0.4% -6.9% 3.4% -5.7%
3/31/2004 Q4 2003 & Prediction 2003 12.0% 12.8% -2.9% 4.6% 4.7% -5.8% 6.0% 9.5% -5.6%
7/1/2004 Q1 2004 & Actual 2003 -8.2% 12.4% 3.4% 6.3% -3.2% 4.8% -5.8% 0.0% -10.8% 1.2% -6.6% -1.0%
9/30/2004 Q2 2004 5.6% 14.0% 4.2% 6.6% 8.5% 6.1%
12/22/2004 Q3 2004 -3.3% 3.6% -0.8% 4.1% -0.4% 0.4%
3/31/2005 Q4 2004 & Prediction 2004 4.5% 3.0% 9.2% 3.0% 3.3% 4.4% 4.6% 2.7% 2.7%
7/28/2005 Q1 2005 & Actual 2004 -1.0% 10.0% 8.0% -1.2% -2.6% -1.0% 7.0% 2.6% -2.6% 4.2% 7.6% 4.9%
9/30/2005 Q2 2005 6.7% 11.4% 2.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.6%
12/22/2005 Q3 2005 -2.5% 7.7% 1.6% 3.5% 2.8% 5.0%
3/30/2006 Q4 2005 & Prediction 2005 8.8% 18.2% 13.1% 2.2% 4.8% 1.8% 3.7% 8.6% 4.6%
7/13/2006 Q1 2006 & Actual 2005 2.2% 11.1% 12.8% -0.3% 1.1% 7.7% 3.9% 2.1% 1.1% 8.8% 6.5% 1.9%
9/28/2006 Q2 2006 -1.3% -2.2% -0.3% 4.2% 0.1% 5.5%
12/21/2006 Q3 2006 5.8% 8.2% 2.6% 6.6% 0.7% 3.7%
3/28/2007 Q4 2006 & Prediction 2006 1.7% 5.1% 3.9% -1.9% 1.7% 4.9% 2.0% 3.6% 5.3%
7/3/2007 Q1 2007 & Actual 2006 11.8% 13.3% 3.1% -0.8% 4.2% 7.8% 4.4% -0.5% 3.0% 8.2% 4.4% -0.9%

63
Industry Distribution, transportation, and communication Other services (including rent)
Quarterly Annual (Including Building) Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual
Date Release Event
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%)
Actual Change
(%)
Surprise
(%)
9/28/2001 Q1 2001 26.0% 5.8% 7.7%
11/28/2001 Q2 2001 11.6% 3.9% 7.8%
2/28/2002 Q3 2001 2.0% 3.8% 7.4%
4/30/2002 Q4 2001 & Prediction 2001 -3.8% 8.1% 4.4% 5.0% 7.3% 8.2%
7/31/2002 Q1 2002 3.2% -0.6% 5.6%
10/10/2002 Actual 2001 7.5% -0.6% 9.5% 4.5% 7.3% -0.9%
11/7/2002 Q2 2002 11.6% 2.0% 3.5%
1/31/2003 Q3 2002 9.8% 3.6% 4.9%
5/1/2003 Q4 2002 & Prediction 2002 9.5% 9.3% -0.1% 1.4% 5.7% 5.4%
7/15/2003 Actual 2002 11.0% 1.7% 3.9% 2.5% 5.4% 0.0%
7/31/2003 Q1 2003 1.0% 2.7% 3.9%
10/30/2003 Q2 2003 3.9% 1.1% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.9%
1/19/2004 Q3 2003 -1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 2.6%
3/31/2004 Q4 2003 & Prediction 2003 4.4% 6.0% 2.3% -0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.8% 2.4% 3.2%
7/1/2004 Q1 2004 & Actual 2003 -2.1% 8.0% 2.5% 0.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.9% 1.7% 1.6% 4.3% 5.3% 2.1%
9/30/2004 Q2 2004 -1.6% 2.9% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 3.7%
12/22/2004 Q3 2004 -0.3% 4.9% 0.6% 3.5% 0.8% 4.6%
3/31/2005 Q4 2004 & Prediction 2004 1.7% -2.2% 3.5% 0.7% 3.5% 3.4% 2.2% 5.5% 4.5%
7/28/2005 Q1 2005 & Actual 2004 -0.8% -0.8% 3.9% 0.4% 3.7% 7.1% 2.8% -0.6% 1.4% 5.1% 5.4% 0.9%
9/30/2005 Q2 2005 2.2% 2.3% -0.8% 5.4% 0.6% 5.7%
12/22/2005 Q3 2005 0.5% 3.0% 1.1% 5.6% 1.5% 6.1%
3/30/2006 Q4 2005 & Prediction 2005 4.9% 9.8% 4.7% 0.3% 4.4% 5.7% 1.4% 5.7% 5.8%
7/13/2006 Q1 2006 & Actual 2005 -2.7% 0.6% 3.4% -1.3% 3.6% 5.3% 5.3% -0.4% 1.1% 7.8% 7.3% 1.5%
9/28/2006 Q2 2006 3.8% 6.8% 0.2% 5.6% 1.0% 6.1%
12/21/2006 Q3 2006 1.2% 7.8% 0.7% 5.2% 2.8% 7.3%
3/28/2007 Q4 2006 & Prediction 2006 0.1% 4.5% 6.1% 1.9% 6.9% 5.4% 0.7% 5.1% 6.2%
7/3/2007 Q1 2007 & Actual 2006 14.2% 14.4% 4.6% -1.5% 2.4% 7.1% 4.6% -0.8% 1.5% 6.2% 7.8% 1.6%

64
Non-Agricultural Renumeration5
Annual
Date Release Event Actual Change (%) Notes
9/28/2001 Q1 2001 Constant 1995 prices
4/30/2002 Q4 2001 & Prediction 2001 Constant 1995 prices
10/10/2002 Actual 2001 13.1% Constant 1995 prices
7/15/2003 Actual 2002 6.8% Constant 1995 prices
10/30/2003 Q2 2003 Constant 1995 prices; seasonally adjusted introduced
7/1/2004 Q1 2004 & Actual 2003 7.2% Constant 1995 prices

65
GDP GNP Household Consumption Government Consumption
Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Annual
Date Release Event
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Change (%) Actual Change (%)
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Surprise
(%)
Prior
Quarter1
Prior
Year4
Predicted
Surprise
(%)
9/27/2007 Q2 2007 -1.4% 5.4% -0.9% 4.5% 1.5% 6.1% 1.0% 5.6%
12/20/2007 Q3 2007 1.4% 4.1% 1.6% 6.0% 0.6% 6.4% 0.5% 6.4%
3/20/2008 Q4 2007 & Prediction 2007 -0.8% 3.5% 5.3% -2.2% 1.2% 4.5% 0.8% 4.4% 5.4% 0.8% 5.8% 6.7%
6/30/2008 Q1 2008 & Actual 2007 -0.2% -1.5% 6.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 4.1% -0.4% -0.2% 3.5% 6.3% 0.9% 1.7% 4.5% 6.0% -0.7%
9/25/2008 Q2 2008 -0.5% -0.8% -3.1% -2.1% -3.0% -1.4% 1.1% 4.0%
12/18/2008 Q3 2008 1.2% 0.1% -0.9% -4.9% 1.1% -1.3% -0.7% 1.8%
3/26/2009 Q4 2008 & Prediction 2008 -7.1% -7.5% -2.3% -2.2% -6.7% -3.1% -2.0% -4.0% -0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1%
6/30/2009 Q1 2009 & Actual 2008 -1.5% -8.5% -3.0% -0.7% -4.5% -12.0% -2.8% 0.3% -6.2% -9.1% -1.0% -0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 2.6% 0.5%
9/24/2009 Q2 2009 0.0% -7.4% -0.5% -11.6% 0.5% -6.8% -0.9% -0.9%
12/17/2009 Q3 2009 0.3% -7.4% -1.4% -11.3% -0.7% -7.3% -0.9% -2.0%
3/25/2010 Q4 2009 & Prediction 2009 -2.3% -5.1% -7.1% -2.3% -10.4% -11.3% -0.3% -5.2% -7.2% -0.8% -3.5% -1.2%
6/30/2010 Q1 2010 & Actual 2009 2.7% -0.7% -7.6% -0.5% -0.5% -4.2% -10.7% 0.6% -0.2% -0.8% -7.0% 0.2% -0.9% -6.4% -4.4% -3.2%
9/23/2010 Q2 2010 -1.2% -1.8% -0.3% -4.1% -0.2% -1.7% -0.8% -3.4%
12/16/2010 Q3 2010 0.5% -0.5% 1.1% -1.6% -0.5% -1.3% -1.7% -5.2%
3/24/2011 Q4 2010 & Prediction 2010 -1.6% -0.7% -1.0% 2.0% 2.8% -2.1% -0.4% -1.4% -1.2% 0.3% -0.7% -2.2%
6/23/2011 Q1 2011 & Actual 2010 1.3% 0.1% -0.4% 0.6% -4.3% -0.9% 0.3% 2.4% -1.9% -2.9% -0.8% 0.4% -1.9% -4.2% -3.8% -1.6%
9/22/2011 Q2 2011 1.6% 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% -2.4% -0.8% -3.3%
12/16/2011 Q3 2011 -1.9% -0.1% -2.2% -4.2% -1.3% -3.9% -1.3% -3.9%
3/22/2012 Q4 2011 & Prediction 2011 -0.2% 0.7% 0.7% -2.2% -7.1% -2.5% 0.5% -2.2% -2.7% -3.4% -7.0% -3.7%
7/12/2012 Q1 2012 & Actual 2011 -1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% -1.3% 0.2% -2.5% 0.0% -2.1% -2.2% -2.4% 0.3% 2.2% -3.3% -4.3% -0.6%
9/20/2012 Q2 2012 0.0% -1.1% 4.3% 2.9% -0.4% -2.5% -3.9% -7.0%
12/18/2012 Q3 2012 0.2% 0.8% -0.4% 3.7% 0.5% 0.2% -0.3% -3.9%
3/21/2013 Q4 2012 & Prediction 2012 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% -0.8% 3.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% -0.9% -0.7% -2.6% -3.7%
6/27/2013 Q1 2013 & Actual 2012 -0.6% -0.9% 0.2% -0.7% 2.9% 6.1% 1.8% -1.6% -3.0% -1.6% -0.3% 0.6% 0.3% -1.8% -3.7% 0.0%
9/19/2013 Q2 2013 0.4% -1.2% -0.4% -0.1% 0.7% -1.3% -1.3% -1.7%
12/19/2013 Q3 2013 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 3.9% 0.9% -1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
3/13/2014 Q4 2013 & Prediction 2013 -2.3% -0.7% -0.3% 0.2% 4.2% 3.4% -0.6% -1.1% -1.1% 0.2% 0.7% -0.5%
7/3/2014 Q1 2014 & Actual 2013 2.7% 4.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 3.4% 3.3% -0.1% -0.1% 0.2% -0.8% 0.3% -2.1% 2.6% 1.4% 1.9%
9/18/2014 Q2 2014 1.5% 7.7% 0.6% 9.0% 0.3% 1.8% 3.8% 7.9%
12/11/2014 Q3 2014 0.1% 3.5% 0.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% -0.9% -1.4%
3/12/2015 Q4 2014 & Prediction 2014 0.2% 4.1% 4.8% 2.3% 6.3% 5.2% 1.3% 2.1% 1.1% -0.1% -2.7% 0.1%
7/30/2015 Q1 2015 & Actual 2014 1.4% 6.5% 5.2% 0.4% -0.8% 7.3% 6.9% 1.7% 1.2% 3.8% 2.0% 0.9% -0.4% 5.9% 4.6% 4.5%
9/10/2015 Q2 2015 1.9% 6.7% 1.9% 5.3% 0.4% 2.8% -0.7% 1.7%
12/10/2015 Q3 2015 1.4% 7.0% -0.8% 3.2% 0.7% 3.6% -1.0% -1.4%
3/10/2016 Q4 2015 & Prediction 2015 2.7% 9.2% 7.8% 3.4% 5.2% 5.7% 1.0% 3.1% 3.5% -1.4% -6.8% -0.8%
7/12/2016 Q1 2016 & Actual 2015 -2.1% 2.3% 26.3% 18.5% 1.3% 10.6% 18.7% 13.0% 2.1% 5.0% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.9%

Finding Gold in "Leprechaun Economics": An analysis of Ireland's recent macroeconomic growth and subsequent market responses

Finding Gold in "Leprechaun Economics": An analysis of Ireland's recent macroeconomic growth and subsequent market responses

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