Election Night Viewing Guide

A Comprehensive Election Night Viewing Guide
By Daniel Berman
With the first polls closing in a little over 24 hours, it’s important to know what to pay attention to, and
what to disregard. As a consequence, I have put together this election night viewing guide, which I hope
will also provide advice on what to ignore in the media coverage of the day itself. While elections tend
to produce a lot of static, a situation only worsened by the spread of communications tools like twitter,
it is quite possible to get a clear picture relatively early on election day. While it was not clear that
George Bush would be reelected in 2004 until after 9PM, it was quite apparent that Exit Polls showing
John Kerry up were in error by 7:20PM Eastern time, if people knew where to look.
Before the Polls Close:
Exit Poll Leaks: Beginning at around 4PM, networks will begin leaking exit poll results. These will not
include the toplines, aka the actual projected vote total for the candidates, but will include demographic
data, including for instance what percentage of voters define themselves as “conservatives” or how
many voters believe the country is on the right track. These numbers are provisional, based on the first
two of what is normally three waves of interviews with voters, and the third wave often differs
substantially from the first two. Furthermore, initial exit polls are often at variance with results by
several points, and recalibrated to meet those results. That said, useful information can be gathered.
Certain responses correlate closely with voting intentions. Those who believe they are likely to be worse
off economically will vote overwhelmingly for Romney. Those who think they will better will vote
heavily for Obama. Those who think they will be the same will likely break towards Obama.
Secondly, sites such as Drudge will release things that look like the toplines for exit polls. Every point of
wariness above should be doubled for these. At best these are toplines reverse-engineered from the
network leaks. At worst they are pure fabrications.
Turnout Reports: It is almost certain that in the absence of results, the media will focus on reports of
turnout. TV presenters will claim that there are multi-hour lines to vote, that the turnout is
unprecedented in minority/republican areas. In states with same-day registration, leaks will indicate
turnout over 100%.
All of these reports should be ignored. Turnout is almost impossible to gauge from incidental reports,
and lines are more often a sign of incompetent election administration, a clear consequence is lower
turnout from disgruntled voters, than they are of high turnout. In Ohio in 2004, the highest turnout
precincts, generally in Republican areas had few lines. By contrast, multi-hour lines in Cleveland this past
Sunday produced turnout 40% below that in the same period in 2008.
The precincts with the highest turnout will be those that get voters in and out as quickly as possible. This
is especially true in states like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, where in contrast to 2004, between
30% and 50% of the vote has already been cast. Lines should not be extending for hours at 9PM in

Cleveland with half as many voters turning out on election day, and if they are, it’s a sign that there is
something seriously wrong going on which is likely to hurt rather than help Obama.
Election Night:
Precincts: Throughout the night, a number of media sources will use the term “% precincts reporting”. It
is important to note that this is not an estimate of percentage of the vote outstanding. Precincts are
different sizes, and many are in fact empty or phantom precincts. This is especially true with the rise in
early voting. Many counties report their early and absentee numbers in the form of a single precinct,
meaning that all other precincts combined may account for less than 50% of the total vote. Some sites
will attempt to estimate the percentage of the vote outstanding. These tend to be more accurate, but
are still based on estimates.
6-7PM:
States Closing: Kentucky(part), Indiana(Part)
State: Kentucky
2008 Result: 57-41 McCain
2004 Result: 60-40 Bush
Results Trend: Democratic to Republicans
Early Voting : NA
At 6PM Eastern time, polls close in the state of Indiana and in parts of Kentucky. Because several
Kentucky counties are located within the central time zone, they remain open until 7PM. In years past,
this meant that exit poll results for the state were not released until that time. This year, with no exit
poll in Kentucky this is not an issue.
There are few races to watch in Kentucky this year. Republicans are hoping to win control of the State
House of Representatives, controlled by Democrats 58-42, of the sixth congressional district held by
Democrat Ben Chandler. Otherwise there is little to see. Furthermore, the changing partisan alignments
of counties within the state, with Louisville trending Democratic, and traditionally Democratic Coal
Counties trending Republican, makes early result hard to interpret. Initial numbers in the East led Karl
Rove to almost call the election for McCain in 2008, and Barrack Obama actually led early in the evening.
State: Indiana
2008 Result: 50-49 Obama
Results Trend: Democratic to Republican
% Voting Early/2008: Less than 15%
Early Vote Breakdown: Unavailable
Rating: Safe Romney

On the Presidential level, the neighboring state of Indiana, one of the great surprises of 2008, is far less
interesting this year. Obama’s campaign wrote it off from the start, and the only question remaining is
where between its 2004 and 2008 numbers it ends.
This does not mean there is no reason to hit refresh on your browser. Vigo County has picked the
correct winner in every election since 1956. Obama might survive a narrow loss there nationally, but
much more than that would be a serious warning sign.
Also worth following is the Senate race between Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Richard
Mourdock. Mourdock knocked off incumbent Republican Senator Richard Lugar in the primary and then
led until unfortunate remarks about rape torpedoed his campaign. Nonetheless, Indiana is a Republican
state, Donnelly has struggled to top 47%, and Romney will win comfortably. Furthermore, a close race in
2010 turned into a 16 point blowout for the Republican. If Mourdock pulls off a win, it indicates bad
things for other Democrats running in red states including Jon Tester in Montana, Heidi Heitkemp in
North Dakota and Richard Carmona in Arizona. It also almost certainly means Republicans will gain
seats.
7PM
States Closing: Florida(part) Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
State: Virginia
Results Trend: Very Republican to Democratic
% Voting Early/2008: Less than 13%
Early Vote Breakdown: Unavailable
At this hour we begin to see interesting states closing, though tragically this year only Virginia will have
an exit poll at 7:30. Some of the same caveats above apply to initial exit polls. People should not try and
use them to figure out the winner of a state unless there is a clear cut margin of more than 6 or so
points. If, as expected, Virginia’s numbers are close, there probably will not be much to see for a while.
Keep an eye on exurban Loudoun and Prince William counties, if Obama is winning them he is winning
the state, if he is losing them badly he is in for a bad night not just in Virginia, but potentially in the Philly
Suburbs as well. Also keep in mind that Democratic areas come in very late, and Obama will likely trail
most of the night. In 2008 he did not overtake McCain until nearly 80% of the vote was counted.
The Virginia Senate race has been one of the closest in the country, with Kaine putting distance on Allen
in the last few weeks. While both Kaine and Obama will trail badly in early results, the difference
between them will be informative. If Kaine is consistently running ahead of Obama, odds that he wins
will suddenly look quite substantial.
Also worth noting; Virginia has very limited early voting, and with less than 13% of the electorate taking
advantage of it, election day voting will matter far more than in other competitive states other than
Michigan and Pennsylvania. Given the dependence of Obama in the state on younger voters, and voters
in the northern, colder part of the state, leaves him very vulnerable to low turnout, lines, and voter
confusion.

State: Florida
Results Trend: Uniform
% Voting Early/2008: 53%
Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 39% R 18% I(46% D 37% R 11% I in 2008)
Florida will not have an exit poll until 8PM because polls in the Panhandle will remain open until 8PM ET.
Nonetheless, Florida results tend to be very representative early on. The first indication John Kerry was
in trouble was the fact that he seemed to be constantly trailing by about five points in Florida, and Bush
swept the I-4 Corridor(Pinellas, Hillsborough, and Sarasota Counties). If Obama is losing Pinellas, Florida
is probably gone. If he seems to be consistently down by the mid-hour, his odds of taking the state will
be quite low. The Senate race which was at one point competitive is so no longer, except in the event of
a Romney sweep.
Be on the watch for Romney falling behind. If by some chance he is behind at any point after 15% of
precincts are reporting, it’s a bad sign for him nationally. The swing areas of Florida are close enough to
those in Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to mean that if Romney is losing them his hopes of
carrying any of those states are likely to be nonexistent.
State: Georgia
2008 Result: 52-47 McCain
Early Vote Breakdown: 59% White, 34% AA, 7% Other
Georgia, after being at the edge of competiveness in 2008, is almost certainly out of reach for Obama
this year. Despite trends similar to those in neighboring North Carolina such as an activist African
American populations and rising non-white electorate, whites are sufficiently cohesive to prevent the
state from being genuinely competitive. Obama did better with whites here(23%) than he did in
neighboring Alabama(10%) or Mississippi(11%), but that number is likely to fall this year. Not as far as it
has in neighboring states, a growing Atlanta will maintain a core of white democratic votes, but its
unlikely that any real Democratic breakthrough will happen here as long as Barack Obama is President.
Nonetheless, Obama should over-perform his national swing here, likely holding any lost to 7-8 points,
and networks may be reluctant to call the state early.
7:30PM
States Closing: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
State: North Carolina

Results Trend: Initial Democratic surge followed by a slight but consistent Republican to Democratic
Trend
Early Vote Breakdown: 67% White, 27% AA 5% Other(69% White, 26% AA, 5% Other in 2008), 47% D,
32% R, 21% I(51%D, 30% R, 19% I in 2008)
North Carolina, which was finally called for Barack Obama nearly a week after the 2008 election, was
one of the big surprises of the night. A booming educational and tech sector had led to a boom in
migrants from outside the south, while the state underwent the same increased minority trend visible in
the rest of the south.
Yet these trends, while real, can be overstated. In what was an unprecedented effort, Obama managed
to win the state by only 14,000 out of nearly 4.5 million cast. In 2010, Republicans took control of the
state legislature for the first time since the Mugabe-style “elections” of 1898, and earlier this year the
voters of the state banned recognition of both Gay Marriage and Civil Unions by a vote of 61-39. It
remains a lean-republican state federally, and the Republican Patrick McCory is set to sweep to victory
by a double-digit margin.
Furthermore, Democrats here have not been immune to the defection of white voters evident in the
rest of the south. While 31% of white voters are Democrats compared to 45% who are Republicans,
those numbers for whites under age 45 are 44% and 25% respectively, no trend to Obama among the
youth here. While Obama should hold up better here than nationally, and probably better than some
pollsters show, white democrats seem to have been replaced with black ones, its highly unlikely he has
much chance of victory.
The most important election in the state is actually not for President or Governor, but for the State
Supreme Court. If Democratic Sam Ervin IV defeats Republican incumbent Paul Newby he will likely
provide the deciding vote to strike down Republican redistricting maps for the state legislature which
otherwise all but guarantee Republican majorities for the decade.
State: Ohio
Results Trend: Mostly Uniform with a slight Democratic Trend
Early Vote Breakdown: Cuyahoga County(Cleveland) 249K votes(252K in 2008), Franklin
County(Cincinnati) 222K(209K in 2008)
Ohio is the big prize of the election, or so it has been spun. In reality, Mitt Romney has consistently
struggled in the polls. While he has managed to get close to Obama, and nearly a third of the final polls
have him either tied or down only one, few polls have ever shown him up.
Whether it is the lingering impact of the auto-bailout, or Obama’s laser-like focus on the state, Romney
clearly is struggling. And efforts to add Pennsylvania(a much better demographic match), are indicative
of this. It is also this Ohio lead upon which Nate Silver has based a large part of both his predictive
model and his reputation.

While indications are favorable to Obama, the problem with Ohio is the problem with the entire
election. If you buy that Ohio is lean Obama, then so is the election. If you are skeptical of the polls in
Ohio, then you are skeptical as to whether the election is truly over. Ohio has not been a particularly
friendly state for Democrats. In recent years they have struggled to win statewide, winning nothing
between 1994 and 2006, and losing every statewide office in 2010, along with an open Senate seat by
18 points. Obama’s entire Ohio strategy, and the bets everyone else have placed on it succeeding,
depend on voters who everywhere else in the country are voting for Romney voting differently in Ohio
than they are everywhere else. This is especially true of blue collar white males, who have proven a
difficult demographic for Obama since the 2008 primaries.
Ohio has virtually no history of going Democratic in close elections. Obama’s 51.38% was the only time a
Democrat reached 50% since Johnson in 1964, and prior to that the previous Democrat to do so was
Roosevelt in 1940. Precedents exist to be broken, but when entire models, and virtually the entire
consensus in favor of Obama rely on breaking them completely, a degree of caution is always in order.
8PM:
States Closing: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi,
Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington,
DC
At about this time of night, the results in a number of states that closed earlier should be becoming
clearer. If Romney is going to win Florida by anything more than three points, it should be clear by this
point. The Senate race in Indiana should be decided.
The States closing at 8PM therefore are in some ways less interesting than the results else ware. And
most of the interest will be on Senate races, of which there are competitive contests in Connecticut,
Massachusetts, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.
Of these, Democrats are probably favored in all four. Linda McMahon, the wealthy founder of WWE, has
floundered after leading for most of her second campaign for Senate in Connecticut. Scott Brown,
whose surprise win in 2010 denied Democrats their supermajority, has been struggling against the lean
of the state, and while he has recovered from his September low, he probably remains slightly behind
Democrat Elizabeth Warren. Democrat Claire McCaskill was considered DOA in Missouri prior to the
implosion of her opponent Todd Akin, who used the term “legitimate rape” and suggested its victims
biologically could not become pregnant. Republicans, including Mitt Romney abandoned him, and his
money dried out. Yet after the deadline for his withdrawal passed on September 24th
, national
Republicans rushed back in, and recent polls have painted a confused picture. Some have McCaskill up
double-digits, while others show a near tie. McCaskill has had trouble hitting 50%, and an upset is far
from impossible. Bob Casey, the Democratic incumbent in Pennsylvania has squandered a large lead
against his self-funding Republican opponent Tom Smith, but his name and Obama’s turnout in
Philadelphia should be enough to win the state.
Of these, only two states are competitive at the Presidentiall level.
State: New Hampshire
2004 Result: 51-49 Kerry

Results Trend: Mostly Uniform with a slight Republican Trend
Early Voting: No Significant Early Voting
New Hampshire figures in an odd place in American politics. A formerly solid Republican state, it saw a
large Democratic swing in the early 2000s. This trend had already begun in 2000, when a strong
performance by Ralph Nader denied Gore the state by 7,000 votes, and with it, the Presidency. In 2004,
Kerry consolidated that vote to rack up his only gain of the night. In 2006, a Democratic wave delivered
the state legislature to the Democrats, and in 2008, despite McCain’s local popularity, Obama won the
state easily. In 2010 however the pendulum swung back. Republicans won almost 75% of the seats in
the legislature, and won an open senate seat 60-36.
New Hampshire is the closest thing in the United States to a “Tory” state. Its politics are fundamentally
conservative, but in a European rather than American context, with a strong respect for traditions,
institutions, and the status quo, and a strong distrust of populism. It is not surprising that the state
rejected the untried Barack Obama for the old war horse Hillary Clinton in 2008, nor is it surprising that
it was the only state where Jon Huntsman broke through during the Republican primaries this year.
New Hampshire’s leftward trend at the end of the 1990s was driven by the increased radicalism of the
national Republican party following the Clinton impeachment and the Gingrich revolution, and the Iraq
war provoked an isolationist reaction that lasted through 2009. But Iraq was not the only cause. State
Republicans were also moving to the right, driven by migrants from Massachusetts. Rather than driving
the state to the left, as the myth has it, MA transplants in southern New Hampshire are most Rightwing
element in the state. Having been driven out of Massachusetts by high property values, and the
corresponding high property taxes, they have militantly turned against the liberal politicians they believe
produced those, as well as against the social values of Harvard/MIT/Tufts/BU grads who have migrated
in-state and driven up housing prices. They provide the local audience for Glenn Beck and Rush
Limbaugh, and while generally not religious, they are instinctively reactionary in a populist manner.
These voters added an activist element into New Hampshire politics toxic to the state’s old-line
conservatism. As they gained control of the legislative Republican caucuses in 2005-2006, New
Hampshire voters rejected them. But the Democratic victory was less of an endorsement of Democratic
policies than an endorsement of the center. As Democrats moved rapidly to the left in 2009-2010, both
nationally, with Obamacare, and locally with the passage of Gay Marriage and tax reform, New
Hampshire voters revolted a second time, again in defense of the center.
Obama looked doomed here in the summer of 2011. But Romney’s need to run to the right in the
primaries hurt him badly here. Furthermore, Romney is very much a creature of the Massachusetts
border, and that in turn has bred distrust of him among old-line Republicans. New Hampshire is one
place where change almost never wins, and whichever candidate comes off less radical is likely to win.
Romney will turnout record numbers in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties, but Obama should
outperform his 2008 numbers in the northern parts of the state and the Connecticut valley for a narrow
win.
State: Pennsylvania

2000 Result: 51-46 Gore
Results Trend: Heavily Democratic to Republican
Early Voting: No Significant Early Voting(5%)
Pennsylvania has long been a Republican target, not least because like Ohio, it is a strongly Republican
state at the local level. Republicans have held the State Senate for decades, and control most county
governments. With the help of new redistricting maps they hold almost 2/3rds of the Congressional
delegation.
The key to any Republican victory in the state is to sweep both the Philadelphia Suburbs, and working-
class SWPA. In recent years Republicans have managed one or the other, but rarely both at once. Bush
swept the suburbs in 2004, but underperformed around Pittsburgh resulting in a narrow loss. McCain
did much better out-west, but was crushed in the suburbs.
It has been heavily debated whether Romney’s move into the state is an act of desperation or of
confidence. It is probably a bit of both. Romney believes, likely correctly, that he is well equipped to win
the suburban counties of Bucks, Berks, and Chester, and he held the largest rally in the history of Bucks
this weekend. Democrats lost three US House seats in these counties in 2010, so there is reason for
optimism, and the local Democratic operation outside of Philadelphia is a mess, crippled by indictments
of senior politicians.
Romney’s problem will be in SWPA, for which he is a bad match, as is demonstrated by his trouble in
next-door Ohio. There are, however, mitigating factors in PA. For one thing, polls show Romney doing
much better here than across the border. Secondly, energy provides Romney with an issue, especially
given Obama’s opposition to Coal and the Keystone Pipeline. Drilling is the new driving economic force
of the region, and Obama is perceived as hostile to its expansion.
How narrow Romney’s path to victory actually is, however, is made clear by current Republican Senator
Pat Toomey’s narrow victory in 2010. He carried every county in Western Pennsylvania except
Allegheny(Pittsburgh) where he held Joe Sestak, the Democrat, to a nine point victory, while also
winning every suburban county except for heavily Democratic Delaware and Montgomery. He
nonetheless only won 51-49.
Can Romney win? Definitely. Will he? It will be tough.
9PM:
States Closing: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New
York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
By this point the media should be full of stories of long lines in Cleveland, Columbus, and other cities still
in line to vote in Ohio, and panicked spokesman threatening lawsuits. Odds are a federal judge will have
issued an order or two keeping them open. On a more meaningful note, most of the states in this time
period should be called quickly. New Mexico, Michigan, and Arizona should be within high single-digits,
but their outcome should never be in doubt. The same should be true of Senate races in all three, with
Democrats sweeping New Mexico and Michigan, and Republican Jeff Flake defeating Democrat Richard
Carmona by 52-46 or so. Presidential results should echo these. Colorado and Wisconsin are different
matters.

Florida and North Carolina should also have clear trends. If they have not been called for Mitt Romney at
this point of the night, his odds of winning the election are likely to be exceedingly poor. Even if he
eventually prevails, victories of less than three points in North Carolina and two points in Florida are bad
signs for the national results, and absent a potential Sandy effect on turnout in the North East, would
almost guarantee an Obama victory in the popular vote.
State: Colorado
Results Trend: Uniform – 70% of vote is early
Early Vote Breakdown: 34.6% D 36.6% R 28.8% I(37.7% D, 35.9% R, 27.4% I in 2008, 40.7% R, 34.6% D,
24.6% I in 2010)
Colorado has long been a case of close but no cigar for Democrats until 2006 when they swept almost
everything on the ballot. This was followed up by Obama’s victory in 2008. In 2010, despite a national
Republican trend, and partisan Early Voting Breakdown of 41% Republican to 35% Democratic,
Democrats held both the Governorship and the Senate seat that was up.
Early voting numbers look better for Obama than 2010, but much worse than those of 2008. The state
will be very close. The general consensus until the last few days was that Romney was ahead, but
Obama seems to have surged in the last few days following Hurricane Sandy, especially among
professional woman. In the end Romney is probably marginally favored if he wins the popular vote, but
the Democratic ground game here is vastly superior to the Republican.
Counting here should be fast, given the large portion of the vote cast before election day.
State: Wisconsin
Results Trend: Republican to Democratic
Early Voting Breakdown: No Party registration
Wisconsin, despite its progressive tradition, has been a battleground state in recent years. Both Kerry
and Gore won it by less than a percentage point, and Bush led in most polling averages going into
election day in 2004. Obama’s win was more of an aberration than anything else.
Recent events, including two waves of recalls, the second culminating in Republican Governor Scott
Walker’s 53-46 survival this June, have given Republicans momentum in the state. Republican activists
are mobilized, while many Democrats appear depressed over their June defeat. Obama drew only
18,000 for a Bruce Springsteen Concert in the capital of Madison, heart of the Democratic stronghold of
Dane county. A similar concert in 2004 drew more than 80,000 for John Kerry. While Early Voting
numbers are higher than in June, they are below 2008, and there is little visible media energy.

Dane and Milwaukee will go heavily for Obama, and in fact went more heavily against Walker than they
did in 2010. Obama’s problem lies in the rural counties in the northwest and in Green Bay, both of which
he carried in 2008, and which Walker swept by almost 20 points in June. Kerry won these areas as well,
and there seems to a definite Democratic decline. These are not natural Obama voters, and in some
ways the dynamics are worse for him are worse here than in Ohio.
The Senate race between Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin and former Governor Tommy Thompson has
closed after Baldwin led for several months. Baldwin, who if elected would be the first openly gay
member of the senate, is closely identified with Dane County which she represents, not a good
association in the post-recall era. Her links to the recall effort further harm her. Thompson however has
run a gaffe-prone, anemic campaign, with little energy, while Baldwin has run one of the best campaigns
in the country. This race will come down to a battle of campaign v. fundamentals, and Baldwin is
probably slightly favored if Obama wins the state.
10PM:
States Closing: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
State: Iowa
Results Trend: Slight Democratic to Republican
Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 33%R 24% I(47% D 29% R 24% I in 2008)
Iowa has consistently been one of the closest states in the country. As a largely rural, white, state, it’s
hardly a perfect state for Obama. Consequently Obama led for most of the spring. In Iowa Democrats
generally make up for state’s slight Republican lead with an impressive turnout machine, often winning
early voting by large margins. Even in 2010, when Republicans won almost everything on the ballot,
Democrats still led the early vote.
The margin however matters. In 2004, when Bush won the state narrowly, it was 52,000. In 2008, when
Obama won comfortably, it was 93,000. In 2010, it was 17,000. This year it was 66,000, 14,000 more
than in 2004 when Bush won by 13,000.
Obama has had some bad breaks here recently. The Des Moines Register selected Mitt Romney for its
endorsement, the first Republican to receive it since Nixon in 1972. Two Justices who voted for the
legalization of Same-Sex Marriage are also up for retention, driving evangelical turnout.
All things being equal, Obama is probably marginally behind, if only by a percentage point, which is the
margin most polls show.
State: Nevada

Early Vote Breakdown: 43% D 38%R 19% I
Nevada is a state that combines a strong Democratic demographic trend with the political machine of
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a fierce critic of fellow Mormon Mitt Romney. In 2010, Reid was
himself all but written off, but ended up winning by almost six percentage points. In 2012, with probably
two-thirds of the vote in, Democrats have a lead of 48,000 votes, or six points. While Romney could
overcome that on election day, and probably has a good chance to win the state on that day itself, that
same machine will be in operation then, and Romney will likely have to win by more than ten points to
close the gap.
Romney strategists, based on media leaks, seem to have written Nevada off. In a selection of internal
polls leaked on November 5th
which had Romney leading in Pennsylvania and Ohio by one point,
Romney trailed in Nevada. Obama should take the state in anything less than a rout. He should however
keep the results close enough to carry incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller over the finish line
against Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley.
11PM:
States Closing: California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington
None of these states are seriously competitive at the Presidential level, except in the event of a rout.
There is a competitive Senate race in North Dakota between Democrat Heidi Heitkemp and Republican
Congressman Rick Berg. Heitkemp is the better candidate, but Berg should pull it out with Romney’s
coattails.
As to the national picture, Pennsylvania should be called by this point, as should North Carolina and
Florida if they have not been called yet. Ohio, if it is going to be decided by more than a point should
also be called. While the final call was not until 1130PM ET in 2004, it was evident almost forty minutes
earlier that Kerry was unlikely to close the gap sufficiently for provisional to matter.

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