SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo

OAR Winter Conference 2013

•
•
D
Dane Theisen
Imóveis
1 de 46
Baixar para ler offline
Housing Market  and  Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION  OF REALTORS® Presentation at Ohio Association of REALTORS® Columbus, OH January 14, 2013
Forecast #1: Inflation will be Notably  Higher by 2015 • No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013 • But Inflation rises to 4% to 6% in 2015 • Well above Fed’s preferred rate of 2% • But not in double‐digits as in 1970s
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ‐4 ‐2 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan Core 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Overall 1998 ‐ Jan (% change from one year ago) 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Consumer Price Inflation 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul Owners' Equivalent Rent 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index) Renters' Rent 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth 
Percent of REALTORS® Reporting Changing  Rent  Levels as Compared to 12 Months Ago 60% Sept '12: Rising rent: 57% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Higher Rents Lower Rents Constant rents
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve  (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)  % Fed Funds 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from  Quantitative Easing Total Assets 3500000 $ million 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1‐Aug‐07 1‐Aug‐08 1‐Aug‐09 1‐Aug‐10 1‐Aug‐11 1‐Aug‐12
500000 0 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 12‐month tally in $ million 1986 ‐ Jan Revenue 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Spending 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan Federal Government  2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Tax Revenue and Spending 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
Huge Federal Budget Deficit  … Will Push Up Borrowing Cost and/or Ignite Inflation 4 Deficit in relation to GDP 2 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 ‐2‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 ‐10 ‐12
Impact to Deficit • Mortgage Interest Deduction … $90 billion – Not the source of the current budget deficit since  MID was present for nearly 100 years • Interest Rates Revert back to historical  average … $300 billion in extra interest  expense
0 5 10 15 20 ‐5 1971 ‐ Jan 1973 ‐ Jan 1975 ‐ Jan 1977 ‐ Jan 1979 ‐ Jan 1981 ‐ Jan 1983 ‐ Jan 1985 ‐ Jan 1987 ‐ Jan 1989 ‐ Jan 1991 ‐ Jan 30‐year Mortgage Rate 1993 ‐ Jan 1995 ‐ Jan 1997 ‐ Jan 1999 ‐ Jan Mortgage Rates 2001 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jan Inflation Rate 2007 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jan Declining Inflation Helped Lower  2011 ‐ Jan
Mortgage Rate Forecast (Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?)  30‐year Mortgage % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re‐staff mortgage  work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
Forecast #2: Meaningfully Higher  Home Prices • Demand is Up … Supply is Down • 4% to 5% in 2012 (Case‐Shiller, FHFA) • 5% to 7% in 2012 (Median Home Price) • Home price growth could slow or accelerate … all  depends on housing starts • Probably 15% cumulative growth over 3 years
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct Buyer 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Oct Seller 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ Jul from REALTOR® Survey Buyer and Seller Traffic  2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Apr 2012 ‐ Jul
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Apr 2007 ‐ Jul Source: NAR 2007 ‐ Oct 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr Homebuyer Tax Credit 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul (Seasonally Adjusted) 2010 ‐ Oct 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ July 2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012‐Apr 2012 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Oct Monthly Pending Home Sales Index
Annual Existing Home Sales Closings: U‐Shaped Recovery 8 In million units 7 7.08 6 6.52 5 5.7 5.4 5.02 5.1 4 4.69 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012 est.
Ohio Housing Statistics • Sales up 14% year‐to‐date   • Prices up 5% in November  • Dollar Volume … up 20% • REALTOR®… up from 28 and 49  (from bad to normal) • Inventories down 15% from 1 year ago  • Inventories down 41% from 2 years ago 
Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions) 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 140000 In thousands 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan U.S. Total Payroll Jobs 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (Recovered 63% of jobs lost) 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan In thousands 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan (Lost Decade) 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul Ohio Total Payroll Jobs 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
Ohio Total Payroll Jobs Long‐term since 1939 6000 In thousands 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (How many of the civilian population is working?) 2011 ‐ Jan Employment Rate … No Progress 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
Visible Existing Home Inventory (Existing home inventory at 8‐year low) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 1964 ‐ Jan 1966 ‐ Jan 1968 ‐ Jan 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Visible New Home Inventory 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50‐year low) 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
Housing Starts (Well Below 50‐year average of 1.5 million each year) multifamily single‐family Thousand units (annualized) 2500 2000 Long‐term Average 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ohio Housing Permits 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 million units 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q3 Shadow Inventory … Falling 2015 … 5% 2014 … 8% (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process) 2013 … 15% 2012 … 25% 2011 … 33% 2010 … 33%  Market Share Distressed Sales 
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 • Vacant property 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 CT 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 IL 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 • Missed Mortgages for 6 months or longer  2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 Example Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in CT and IL 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Clogged in Judicial States  Should a trigger be set up to foreclose without a court approval? 
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 AZ 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 MI 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 in Non‐Judicial States  2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Rapidly Falling  2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 Example: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in AZ, CA , MI 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 Ohio Shadow 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3
Home Prices Metric % change from one year ago Comment NAR + 10.1% (November) Mix of homes impact price …   Median Price fewer distressed sales recently … Case‐Shiller +4.3% (Aug, Sep, Oct average) Lagging indicator Near double‐digit on an  annualized basis in recent months FHFA  + 5.6% (October) 9 straights months of gain National FHFA +3.0% (Third Quarter) 3 straight quarters of gain Connecticut
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 OH 2001 ‐ Q1 AZ 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Home Price Index 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
State Variations in Price Appreciation (% change from 2011 Q3 to 2012 Q3) 25 20 Many in Rocky Mountain States 15 10 5 Mostly in Northeast 0 Utah Nevada Michigan New Jersey Maine North Dakota Colorado Arizona Florida Illinois California Connecticut New Hampshire Idaho New York Rhode Island DC ‐5 Source: FHFA Repeat Price Index
Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth  Distribution • Renters do not accumulate wealth • Renter population rising • Homeowners build wealth after buying at low  prices • Stagnant homeowner population • Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from  becoming homeowners • Investors becoming increasing share of property  owners
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 In $ billion 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 Bubble growth 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 Net Equity in Real Estate 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 If 4% annual gain
Wealth Distribution  (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) $300,000 Bubble Crash $250,000 $200,000 1998 2001 $150,000 2004 $100,000 2007 2010 $50,000 2014 $0 Renter Owner 2014 Forecast by NAR
25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 Renter Households  2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 Homeowner Households 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 % 1965 ‐ Q1 1966 ‐ Q1 1967 ‐ Q1 1968 ‐ Q1 1969 ‐ Q1 1970 ‐ Q1 1971 ‐ Q1 1972 ‐ Q1 1973 ‐ Q1 1974 ‐ Q1 1975 ‐ Q1 1976 ‐ Q1 1977 ‐ Q1 1978 ‐ Q1 1979 ‐ Q1 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 (Lowest in 15 years) 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Homeownership Rate at 65.5% 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
Household Formation (Usually 2/3 owners and 1/3 renters  = 66% homeownership rate) 1.6 1.4 1.2 All Renters 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
Economy Growing, though Slowly (No Fresh Recession because of Housing Recovery)  Real GDP Growth Rate 4 % 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4
Payroll Jobs Changes (December to December)  3 In millions 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4 ‐5 ‐6
‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 $ billion 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 (excluding Federal Reserve)  2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 Financial Industry Profits 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1
Risks to Forecast • Upside … Credit Availability – Housing recovery so far even with tight credit – What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up? – Counter‐cyclical housing policy … lower FHA  premiums and lower GSE g‐fees • Downside … Washington Policy – QRM 20% down payment requirement? – Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage  with low down payment and commercial loans – Trim mortgage interest deduction? – Capital gains tax on home sale?
Forecast (If Prolonged Fiscal Cliff is Avoided) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Forecast GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.3% 3.0% Existing Home  4.3 million 4.7 million 5.1 million  5.3 million Sales Housing Starts 610 K 780 K 1.1 million 1.3 million Existing Home  ‐ 4% + 7% + 5% + 4% Price Growth 30‐yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% Rate 
For Daily Update and Analysis • Twitter  @NAR_Research

Recomendados

Housing Market and Economic Outlook
Housing Market and Economic OutlookHousing Market and Economic Outlook
Housing Market and Economic Outlook
Sold on Shawnee Real Estate
 
Commercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Commercial Real Estate and Economic OutlookCommercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Commercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Nar Res
 
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
Nar Res
 
Presentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
Presentation: Dr Yun - CharlottePresentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
Presentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
helenadamsadmin
 
Economic update ltm (june 2012)
Economic update ltm (june 2012)Economic update ltm (june 2012)
Economic update ltm (june 2012)
PhippsRealty
 
2012 year end report
2012 year end report2012 year end report
2012 year end report
balatow1
 
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Nar Res
 
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear MeetingHousing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Nar Res
 

Recomendados

Housing Market and Economic Outlook
Housing Market and Economic OutlookHousing Market and Economic Outlook
Housing Market and Economic Outlook
Sold on Shawnee Real Estate
 
Commercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Commercial Real Estate and Economic OutlookCommercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Commercial Real Estate and Economic Outlook
Nar Res
 
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
2014 Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum: REALTOR® Party Convention & ...
Nar Res
 
Presentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
Presentation: Dr Yun - CharlottePresentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
Presentation: Dr Yun - Charlotte
helenadamsadmin
 
Economic update ltm (june 2012)
Economic update ltm (june 2012)Economic update ltm (june 2012)
Economic update ltm (june 2012)
PhippsRealty
 
2012 year end report
2012 year end report2012 year end report
2012 year end report
balatow1
 
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum: November 2014
Nar Res
 
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear MeetingHousing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting
Nar Res
 
NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends ForumNAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
 
Recovery to Normalcy
Recovery to NormalcyRecovery to Normalcy
Recovery to Normalcy
NAR Research
 
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Commercial Real Estate OutlookEconomic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Nar Res
 
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende YunEconomic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
St. Charles County Association of REALTORS
 
09 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast201209 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast2012
pushpanagaraj
 
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
Nar Res
 
Charting the US Economy
Charting the US EconomyCharting the US Economy
Charting the US Economy
Gabriel Kaplan, CPA
 
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence YunAlbuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Rich Cederberg, Albuquerque Real Estate Agent
 
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum PresentationCommercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
Nar Res
 
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookEconomic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Nar Res
 
Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic & Commercial Real Estate OutlookEconomic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Nar Res
 
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
KappAhl
 
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
Paul Costello
 
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportSeptember 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
Unit Realty Group
 
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
Dottie Herman
 
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic UpdateCharleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS
 
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd
 
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
Kenneth Hunter
 
Icici bank investor-presentation08
Icici bank investor-presentation08Icici bank investor-presentation08
Icici bank investor-presentation08
nishant rana
 
The Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
The Automotive Industry Consumer LanscapeThe Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
The Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
Levelwing
 
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS
 
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
Charleston Trident Association of REALTORS
 

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

09 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast201209 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast2012
pushpanagaraj
 
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookEconomic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Nar Res
 
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
KappAhl
 
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportSeptember 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
Unit Realty Group
 
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
LJ Gilland Real Estate Pty Ltd
 

Mais procurados (20)

NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends ForumNAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
NAR Residential Economic Issues Trends Forum
 
Recovery to Normalcy
Recovery to NormalcyRecovery to Normalcy
Recovery to Normalcy
 
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Commercial Real Estate OutlookEconomic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
 
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende YunEconomic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
Economic Update with Dr. Lawrende Yun
 
09 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast201209 21-11 forecast2012
09 21-11 forecast2012
 
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum 2013
 
Charting the US Economy
Charting the US EconomyCharting the US Economy
Charting the US Economy
 
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence YunAlbuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Albuquerque Real Estate Presentation by Dr. Lawrence Yun
 
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum PresentationCommercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
Commercial Economic Issues and Trends Forum Presentation
 
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookEconomic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
 
Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic & Commercial Real Estate OutlookEconomic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook
 
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
2008 09-29 Q4 & Full Year 2007/2008 Results
 
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
Dr. Lawrence Yun - Real Estate Outlook - Global 2018
 
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends ReportSeptember 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
September 2015 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
 
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
Lawrence yun dbor power point presentation oct 27 2016
 
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic UpdateCharleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
Charleston Commercial Market Forecast | Lawrence Yun Economic Update
 
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
2015 02-05--corelogic-rpdata-housing-economic-chartpack
 
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
2017 Rocky Mount & Twin Counties Economic Outlook
 
Icici bank investor-presentation08
Icici bank investor-presentation08Icici bank investor-presentation08
Icici bank investor-presentation08
 
The Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
The Automotive Industry Consumer LanscapeThe Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
The Automotive Industry Consumer Lanscape
 

Semelhante a OAR Winter Conference 2013

Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Cate8364
 
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
Cate8364
 
Chris Chmura's presentation
Chris Chmura's presentationChris Chmura's presentation
Chris Chmura's presentation
LEAD VIRGINIA
 

Semelhante a OAR Winter Conference 2013 (20)

2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
2012 Midyear Charleston Residential Real Estate Market Update
 
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
2014 Residential Market Update Presentation. Stephen Slifer
 
2012 Year in Review Charleston Realtors Market Update
2012 Year in Review Charleston Realtors Market Update2012 Year in Review Charleston Realtors Market Update
2012 Year in Review Charleston Realtors Market Update
 
Vanderbilt Presentation (April 2012)
Vanderbilt Presentation (April 2012)Vanderbilt Presentation (April 2012)
Vanderbilt Presentation (April 2012)
 
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, by Dr. Lawrence YunReal Estate and Economic Outlook, by Dr. Lawrence Yun
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, by Dr. Lawrence Yun
 
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, Presentation at CRE Finance Council Annual ...
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, Presentation at CRE Finance Council Annual ...Real Estate and Economic Outlook, Presentation at CRE Finance Council Annual ...
Real Estate and Economic Outlook, Presentation at CRE Finance Council Annual ...
 
2013 Year In Review Market Update - Stephen Slifer's Presentation
2013 Year In Review Market Update - Stephen Slifer's Presentation2013 Year In Review Market Update - Stephen Slifer's Presentation
2013 Year In Review Market Update - Stephen Slifer's Presentation
 
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum Presentation: Lawrence Yun
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum Presentation: Lawrence Yun Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum Presentation: Lawrence Yun
Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum Presentation: Lawrence Yun
 
2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)
2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)
2013 NAR Issues Conference Economists' Panel (February 2013)
 
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and OutlookEconomic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
Economic and Housing Market Trends and Outlook
 
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)
Economic and Real Estate Outlook Silicon Valley (October 2015)
 
Dr. Lawrence Yun Economic Forecast Presentation
Dr. Lawrence Yun Economic Forecast PresentationDr. Lawrence Yun Economic Forecast Presentation
Dr. Lawrence Yun Economic Forecast Presentation
 
NAR
NARNAR
NAR
 
NAR
NARNAR
NAR
 
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
 
Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)Naea 12-12 (2)
Naea 12-12 (2)
 
10 07-11 leslie to mtg
10 07-11 leslie to mtg10 07-11 leslie to mtg
10 07-11 leslie to mtg
 
Economic and Real Estate Market Update from National Association of REALTORS
Economic and Real Estate Market Update from National Association of REALTORSEconomic and Real Estate Market Update from National Association of REALTORS
Economic and Real Estate Market Update from National Association of REALTORS
 
Market Outlook with Lawrence Yun
Market Outlook with Lawrence YunMarket Outlook with Lawrence Yun
Market Outlook with Lawrence Yun
 
Chris Chmura's presentation
Chris Chmura's presentationChris Chmura's presentation
Chris Chmura's presentation
 

Último

ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
Truhomes
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
delhimodel235
 
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
ApartmentWala1
 
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor PresentationMEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
MEQ - Mainstreet Equity Corp.
 
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
delhi24hrs1
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
delhimodel235
 
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
asmaqueen5
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
Delhi Call girls
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
delhimodel235
 
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial VenturesM3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
sheltercareglobal
 
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
delhimodel235
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
delhimodel235
 
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort ServiceBDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
Delhi Call girls
 
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing TurkeyYedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
Listing Turkey
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
Delhi Call girls
 

Último (20)

Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
Parksville 96 Surrey Floor Plans May 2024
 
ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
ACE Terra Yamuna Expressway | 8929888700
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 7 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
 
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
BPTP THE AMAARIO Luxury Project Invest Like Royalty in Sector 37D Gurgaon Dwa...
 
TENANT SCREENING REPORT SERVICES​ How Tenant Screening Reports Work
TENANT SCREENING REPORT SERVICES​ How Tenant Screening Reports WorkTENANT SCREENING REPORT SERVICES​ How Tenant Screening Reports Work
TENANT SCREENING REPORT SERVICES​ How Tenant Screening Reports Work
 
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor PresentationMEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
MEQ Mainstreet Equity Corp Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
 
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
Cheap Rate ✨➥9711108085▻✨Call Girls In Malviya Nagar(Delhi)
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 6 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
 
The Gale at Godrej Park World Hinjewadi Pune Brochure.pdf
The Gale at Godrej Park World Hinjewadi Pune Brochure.pdfThe Gale at Godrej Park World Hinjewadi Pune Brochure.pdf
The Gale at Godrej Park World Hinjewadi Pune Brochure.pdf
 
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
Call Girls in Anand Vihar Delhi +91 8447779280}Call Girls In Delhi Best in D...
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Iffco Chowk (Gurgaon)
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 137 Noida (Call Girls) Delhi
 
Vanam At Purva Soukhyam Guduvanchery.pdf.pdf
Vanam At Purva Soukhyam Guduvanchery.pdf.pdfVanam At Purva Soukhyam Guduvanchery.pdf.pdf
Vanam At Purva Soukhyam Guduvanchery.pdf.pdf
 
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial VenturesM3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
M3M The Line Brochure - Premium Investment Opportunity for Commercial Ventures
 
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls Dwarka Sector 8 Delhi (Call Girls ) Delhi
 
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
9990771857 Call Girls in Dwarka Sector 2 Delhi (Call Girls) Delhi
 
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort ServiceBDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
BDSM⚡Call Girls in Sector 55 Noida Escorts >༒8448380779 Escort Service
 
Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics Package April 2024
Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics Package April 2024Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics Package April 2024
Greater Vancouver Realtors Statistics Package April 2024
 
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing TurkeyYedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
Yedi Mavi TOBB Zeytinburnu - Listing Turkey
 
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
Enjoy Night ≽ 8448380779 ≼ Call Girls In Huda City Centre (Gurgaon)
 

OAR Winter Conference 2013

  • 1. Housing Market  and  Economic Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION  OF REALTORS® Presentation at Ohio Association of REALTORS® Columbus, OH January 14, 2013
  • 2. Forecast #1: Inflation will be Notably  Higher by 2015 • No Threatening Inflation Signs for 2013 • But Inflation rises to 4% to 6% in 2015 • Well above Fed’s preferred rate of 2% • But not in double‐digits as in 1970s
  • 3. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 ‐4 ‐2 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan Core 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Overall 1998 ‐ Jan (% change from one year ago) 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Consumer Price Inflation 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
  • 4. ‐1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul Owners' Equivalent Rent 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (the biggest weight to Consumer Price Index) Renters' Rent 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth 
  • 5. Percent of REALTORS® Reporting Changing  Rent  Levels as Compared to 12 Months Ago 60% Sept '12: Rising rent: 57% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Higher Rents Lower Rents Constant rents
  • 6. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve  (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)  % Fed Funds 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
  • 7. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from  Quantitative Easing Total Assets 3500000 $ million 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1‐Aug‐07 1‐Aug‐08 1‐Aug‐09 1‐Aug‐10 1‐Aug‐11 1‐Aug‐12
  • 8. 500000 0 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 12‐month tally in $ million 1986 ‐ Jan Revenue 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan Spending 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan Federal Government  2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Tax Revenue and Spending 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
  • 9. Huge Federal Budget Deficit  … Will Push Up Borrowing Cost and/or Ignite Inflation 4 Deficit in relation to GDP 2 0 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 ‐2‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐4 ‐6 ‐8 ‐10 ‐12
  • 10. Impact to Deficit • Mortgage Interest Deduction … $90 billion – Not the source of the current budget deficit since  MID was present for nearly 100 years • Interest Rates Revert back to historical  average … $300 billion in extra interest  expense
  • 11. 0 5 10 15 20 ‐5 1971 ‐ Jan 1973 ‐ Jan 1975 ‐ Jan 1977 ‐ Jan 1979 ‐ Jan 1981 ‐ Jan 1983 ‐ Jan 1985 ‐ Jan 1987 ‐ Jan 1989 ‐ Jan 1991 ‐ Jan 30‐year Mortgage Rate 1993 ‐ Jan 1995 ‐ Jan 1997 ‐ Jan 1999 ‐ Jan Mortgage Rates 2001 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jan Inflation Rate 2007 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jan Declining Inflation Helped Lower  2011 ‐ Jan
  • 12. Mortgage Rate Forecast (Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?)  30‐year Mortgage % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re‐staff mortgage  work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
  • 13. Forecast #2: Meaningfully Higher  Home Prices • Demand is Up … Supply is Down • 4% to 5% in 2012 (Case‐Shiller, FHFA) • 5% to 7% in 2012 (Median Home Price) • Home price growth could slow or accelerate … all  depends on housing starts • Probably 15% cumulative growth over 3 years
  • 14. 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct Buyer 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Oct Seller 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ Jul from REALTOR® Survey Buyer and Seller Traffic  2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Apr 2012 ‐ Jul
  • 15. 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Apr 2007 ‐ Jul Source: NAR 2007 ‐ Oct 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Apr 2008 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Oct 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Apr Homebuyer Tax Credit 2009 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Oct 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Apr 2010 ‐ Jul (Seasonally Adjusted) 2010 ‐ Oct 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Apr 2011 ‐ July 2011 ‐ Oct 2012 ‐ Jan 2012‐Apr 2012 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Oct Monthly Pending Home Sales Index
  • 16. Annual Existing Home Sales Closings: U‐Shaped Recovery 8 In million units 7 7.08 6 6.52 5 5.7 5.4 5.02 5.1 4 4.69 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014 2015 2012 est.
  • 17. Ohio Housing Statistics • Sales up 14% year‐to‐date   • Prices up 5% in November  • Dollar Volume … up 20% • REALTOR®… up from 28 and 49  (from bad to normal) • Inventories down 15% from 1 year ago  • Inventories down 41% from 2 years ago 
  • 18. Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions) 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
  • 19. 124000 126000 128000 130000 132000 134000 136000 138000 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 140000 In thousands 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan U.S. Total Payroll Jobs 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (Recovered 63% of jobs lost) 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
  • 20. 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan In thousands 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan (Lost Decade) 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul Ohio Total Payroll Jobs 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul 2011 ‐ Jan 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
  • 21. Ohio Total Payroll Jobs Long‐term since 1939 6000 In thousands 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
  • 22. 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 2000 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jul 2001 ‐ Jan 2001 ‐ Jul 2002 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jul 2003 ‐ Jan 2003 ‐ Jul 2004 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jul 2005 ‐ Jan 2005 ‐ Jul 2006 ‐ Jan 2006 ‐ Jul 2007 ‐ Jan 2007 ‐ Jul 2008 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jul 2009 ‐ Jan 2009 ‐ Jul 2010 ‐ Jan 2010 ‐ Jul (How many of the civilian population is working?) 2011 ‐ Jan Employment Rate … No Progress 2011 ‐ Jul 2012 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jul
  • 23. Visible Existing Home Inventory (Existing home inventory at 8‐year low) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
  • 24. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0 1964 ‐ Jan 1966 ‐ Jan 1968 ‐ Jan 1970 ‐ Jan 1972 ‐ Jan 1974 ‐ Jan 1976 ‐ Jan 1978 ‐ Jan 1980 ‐ Jan 1982 ‐ Jan 1984 ‐ Jan 1986 ‐ Jan 1988 ‐ Jan 1990 ‐ Jan 1992 ‐ Jan 1994 ‐ Jan 1996 ‐ Jan 1998 ‐ Jan 2000 ‐ Jan 2002 ‐ Jan 2004 ‐ Jan Visible New Home Inventory 2006 ‐ Jan 2008 ‐ Jan (Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50‐year low) 2010 ‐ Jan 2012 ‐ Jan
  • 25. Housing Starts (Well Below 50‐year average of 1.5 million each year) multifamily single‐family Thousand units (annualized) 2500 2000 Long‐term Average 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan ‐ Jan
  • 26. 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Ohio Housing Permits 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
  • 27. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 million units 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q3 Shadow Inventory … Falling 2015 … 5% 2014 … 8% (Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process) 2013 … 15% 2012 … 25% 2011 … 33% 2010 … 33%  Market Share Distressed Sales 
  • 28. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 • Vacant property 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 CT 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 IL 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 • Missed Mortgages for 6 months or longer  2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 Example Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in CT and IL 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Clogged in Judicial States  Should a trigger be set up to foreclose without a court approval? 
  • 29. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 AZ 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 MI 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 in Non‐Judicial States  2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 Foreclosures Rapidly Falling  2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 Example: Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in AZ, CA , MI 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3
  • 30. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q2 2005 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q4 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q2 2006 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q4 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q2 2007 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q4 2008 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q2 2008 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q4 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q2 2009 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q4 Ohio Shadow 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q2 2010 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q4 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q2 2011 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q4 2012 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q2 2012 ‐ Q3
  • 31. Home Prices Metric % change from one year ago Comment NAR + 10.1% (November) Mix of homes impact price …   Median Price fewer distressed sales recently … Case‐Shiller +4.3% (Aug, Sep, Oct average) Lagging indicator Near double‐digit on an  annualized basis in recent months FHFA  + 5.6% (October) 9 straights months of gain National FHFA +3.0% (Third Quarter) 3 straight quarters of gain Connecticut
  • 32. 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 0 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 OH 2001 ‐ Q1 AZ 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Home Price Index 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
  • 33. State Variations in Price Appreciation (% change from 2011 Q3 to 2012 Q3) 25 20 Many in Rocky Mountain States 15 10 5 Mostly in Northeast 0 Utah Nevada Michigan New Jersey Maine North Dakota Colorado Arizona Florida Illinois California Connecticut New Hampshire Idaho New York Rhode Island DC ‐5 Source: FHFA Repeat Price Index
  • 34. Forecast #3: More Unequal Wealth  Distribution • Renters do not accumulate wealth • Renter population rising • Homeowners build wealth after buying at low  prices • Stagnant homeowner population • Tight Credit hinders ‘good’ renters from  becoming homeowners • Investors becoming increasing share of property  owners
  • 35. 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 0 2000 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q3 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 In $ billion 2002 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 Bubble growth 2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 2010 ‐ Q1 Net Equity in Real Estate 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1 If 4% annual gain
  • 36. Wealth Distribution  (Federal Reserve data on median net worth) $300,000 Bubble Crash $250,000 $200,000 1998 2001 $150,000 2004 $100,000 2007 2010 $50,000 2014 $0 Renter Owner 2014 Forecast by NAR
  • 37. 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 37,000 39,000 41,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 Renter Households  2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
  • 38. 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 In thousands 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 Homeowner Households 2006 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
  • 39. 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 % 1965 ‐ Q1 1966 ‐ Q1 1967 ‐ Q1 1968 ‐ Q1 1969 ‐ Q1 1970 ‐ Q1 1971 ‐ Q1 1972 ‐ Q1 1973 ‐ Q1 1974 ‐ Q1 1975 ‐ Q1 1976 ‐ Q1 1977 ‐ Q1 1978 ‐ Q1 1979 ‐ Q1 1980 ‐ Q1 1981 ‐ Q1 1982 ‐ Q1 1983 ‐ Q1 1984 ‐ Q1 1985 ‐ Q1 1986 ‐ Q1 1987 ‐ Q1 1988 ‐ Q1 1989 ‐ Q1 1990 ‐ Q1 1991 ‐ Q1 1992 ‐ Q1 1993 ‐ Q1 (Lowest in 15 years) 1994 ‐ Q1 1995 ‐ Q1 1996 ‐ Q1 1997 ‐ Q1 1998 ‐ Q1 1999 ‐ Q1 2000 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q1 2002 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q1 Homeownership Rate at 65.5% 2007 ‐ Q1 2008 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q1 2012 ‐ Q1
  • 40. Household Formation (Usually 2/3 owners and 1/3 renters  = 66% homeownership rate) 1.6 1.4 1.2 All Renters 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
  • 41. Economy Growing, though Slowly (No Fresh Recession because of Housing Recovery)  Real GDP Growth Rate 4 % 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4
  • 42. Payroll Jobs Changes (December to December)  3 In millions 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ‐1 forecastforecast ‐2 ‐3 ‐4 ‐5 ‐6
  • 43. ‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 2001 ‐ Q1 2001 ‐ Q3 2002 ‐ Q1 $ billion 2002 ‐ Q3 2003 ‐ Q1 2003 ‐ Q3 2004 ‐ Q1 2004 ‐ Q3 2005 ‐ Q1 2005 ‐ Q3 2006 ‐ Q1 2006 ‐ Q3 2007 ‐ Q1 2007 ‐ Q3 2008 ‐ Q1 (excluding Federal Reserve)  2008 ‐ Q3 2009 ‐ Q1 2009 ‐ Q3 Financial Industry Profits 2010 ‐ Q1 2010 ‐ Q3 2011 ‐ Q1 2011 ‐ Q3 2012 ‐ Q1
  • 44. Risks to Forecast • Upside … Credit Availability – Housing recovery so far even with tight credit – What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up? – Counter‐cyclical housing policy … lower FHA  premiums and lower GSE g‐fees • Downside … Washington Policy – QRM 20% down payment requirement? – Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage  with low down payment and commercial loans – Trim mortgage interest deduction? – Capital gains tax on home sale?
  • 45. Forecast (If Prolonged Fiscal Cliff is Avoided) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast Forecast GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.3% 3.0% Existing Home  4.3 million 4.7 million 5.1 million  5.3 million Sales Housing Starts 610 K 780 K 1.1 million 1.3 million Existing Home  ‐ 4% + 7% + 5% + 4% Price Growth 30‐yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% Rate 
  • 46. For Daily Update and Analysis • Twitter  @NAR_Research