Presentation of the DAFNE Negotiation Simulation Lab Tools at the Nexus Workshop in Athens organized by DAFNE, SIM4NEXUS and UNU-FLORES, March 16, 2018

1. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
DAFNE Negotiation Simulation
Lab for the WEF Nexus
Prof. Dr. Jasminko Novak
European Institute for
Participatory Media, Berlin
Athens 16.03.2018

2. Water is needed for
food production
and energy
production.
Energy is needed
for food production
and water supply and
sanitation.
2
The WEF Nexus and Stakeholders
Many interconnected issues – many different perspectives

3. Investigating the WEF Nexus in the DAFNE
Negotiation Simulation Lab (NSL)
• “Safe place” for stakeholders to express, discuss and
better understand different perspectives
• To identify potential solution pathways to sustainable
resource management in the basins à shared benefits
• To analyse: what works, what doesn’t & why, what
could be done differently.
Actor analysis identifies stakeholders
• Wide range, different sectors
• Different interests, roles, levels
• Includes: environment (ecosystem services),
tourism, cultural heritage…
3

4. Negotiation Simulation Lab: Integrating
stakeholders into WEF nexus analysis
What are the
issues
preven&ng
sustainable
management
in the basin?
What
indicators
for
evalua2ng
possible
solu&ons?
What are
possible
ac2ons
&
solu2ons
?
What are
the
effects &
trade-
offs of
different
solu&ons
?
What
solu&ons
best
balance
the
effects
on
different
sectors?
…
…
…
STAKEHOLDERS

5. Negotiation Simulation Lab: Process
Problem
defini7on
(issues) Possible
ac7ons &
scenarios
Modelling
&
simula7on
Mul7-
perspec7ve
visualiza7on
Geo-info
portal
Indicators
measuring
effects
Analysis & discussion
by stakeholders
Compu&ng effects
of different solu&ons
5
DAFNE Tools
NSL workshop
…
…
…
NSL workshop
Input from stakeholders

6. GEO-INFO MODELLING
& ANALYSIS
• Modelling /
verifying
indicators and
ac&ons
• Geographical
context
• Detailed display
and analysis of
simula&on results
Negotiation Simulation Lab: Tools
6
VISUAL COMPARISON &
GROUP DISCUSSION
• Understand impact
of different solu&ons
on selected
indicators
• Express and analyse
perspec&ves of
different sectors
• Iden&fy trade-offs &
nego&a&on
opportuni&es

7. Example: Actions, solution pathways
Examples of pathways: actions planned for next 20 years
7
Energy:
development in
Zambia
Energy:
development in
Mozambique
None
Low
Medium
High
None
Low
Medium
High
Food: development agricultural
produc7on in Zimbabwe
None
Low
Medium
High
Water:
Environmental
regula7on for
Kafue flats
Water:
Environmental
regula7on for
Zambezi delta
Yes
No
Yes
No
Pathway 2: Take measures in
different sectors

8. Example: Indicators
Examples of indicators important for different sectors
8
Energy:
Zambia
Energy:
Mozambique
Yearly average
Energy production
from Hydro-power in
Zambia (GWh)
Yearly average
Energy production
from Hydro-power
in Mozambique
(GWh)
Food: Wheat
Zimbabwe
Yearly average potential
Winter Wheat Crop in
Zimbabwe (tons)
Water: Flood
Zambezi Delta
Water: Environment
Kafue Flats
Yearly Max. average of
February discharge in
the Zambezi Delta (m3/
sec)
No. of years with the
February average
flow in the Kafue
Flats wetland more
than 900 m3/sec
Public energy sector
E.g. Ministry of
Mines, Energy and
Water development
Zambia
Public energy sector
E.g. Ministry of
Energy Mozambique
E.g. Ministry of
Agriculture,
Zimbabwe
Wheat farmers
E.g. Ministry of
Coordina&on of
Environmental
Affairs Mozambique
E.g. NGOs,
Zambian Ministry of
Tourism,
Environment and
Natural Resources

9. • Understand
impact of different
solu&on pathways
on selected
indicators
• Express & analyse
own perspec&ve
and perspec&ves
of others
• Compare solu&ons
• Iden&fy trade-offs
& nego&a&on
opportuni&es
Multi-Perspective Visual Analysis Tool
9
View iden&fied
solu&on pathways
Evaluate pathways based on a
set of indicators

10. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool
10
…in higher hydropower produc&on
…and nega&vely affect the
environmental indicators
E.g. Pathway 1 would result …

11. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool
11
Define benchmarks
for your sector’s
indicators
View the
perspec&ve of your
sector

12. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool
12
…in higher hydropower produc&on in
Mozambique…
…but the discharge in the
Zambezi Delta would fall below
the defined thresholds
Pathway 5 would result …

13. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool
13
compare a pathway to the
suggested compromise to
understand trade-offs
View best compromise for
all sector benchmarks

14. Multi-perspective visual analysis tool
14
Inspect a pathway in
more detail
Read comments…

15. DAFNE Geo-portal: detailed analysis
Modelling & analysing indicators, actions & pathways
• Detailed analysis of
dynamics of the systems
in geographical context
• Details of indicators &
solu&on pathways and
their impact
• Understand and verify
the basis of the group
visualiza&on
15
• enhanced form of a Web-GIS

16. NSL Workshops
Online Interaction
• Involve stakeholders who couldn’t
participate in the face-to-face meetings
• Explore DAFNE tools in detail on your own
• Use tools to discuss internally in your
organization
• Face-to-face group analysis of
the visualization of different
solutions and indicators
• Discussion of the impact of
different solutions
Visualising, analysing & discussing impact of different pathways
from mul7ple perspec7ves of different WEF sectors
…
…
…

17. NSL Workshops
Online Interaction
Visualising, analysing & discussing impact of different pathways
from mul7ple perspec7ves of different WEF sectors
…
…
…
è increase and inform understanding of different sector’s perspec&ves
è iden&fy and understand trade-offs
è develop beaer arguments for own posi&on

18. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project