CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. Al Shabaab thwarted a Somali-led raid targeting a senior leader in Lower Shabelle region. The group’s attack on the joint U.S.-Somali forces caused the first U.S. military combat death in Somalia since 1993. U.S. Navy SEALs were conducting an advise, assist, and accompany mission. Al Shabaab issued a series of statements claiming the attack. 2. The internationally recognized Yemeni government of Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi is increasingly a figurehead government in its de facto capital, Aden. The Hadi government ceded control of key checkpoints to Southern Movement factions in negotiations. President Hadi had replaced Aden governor and Southern Movement leader Aydarus al Zubaidi, who has close ties to the UAE, with an official based in Riyadh. The move sparked widespread protests. The growing rift within the Hadi government coalition exposes divisions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 3. A Boko Haram faction is reconstituting its leadership, which may improve the group’s operational capacity. The ISIS-recognized Boko Haram faction led by Abu Musab al Barnawi negotiated with the Nigerian government to release 82 of the schoolgirls captured in Chibok in April 2014 in exchange for at least five senior Boko Haram militants. Boko Haram-Barnawi is most likely responsible for a recent attempt to attack American and British diplomatic posts in Nigeria in April 2017. The group could be preparing for a surge of attacks during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which begins on May 26.

1. AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
May 9, 2017

2. 2
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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3
1
1) The first U.S. military combat death in Somalia since 1993 occurred during
an advise, assist and accompany mission for a Somali-led raid against al
Shabaab. These missions began under the Obama administration.
2) A political shakeup revealed weaknesses in the Yemeni government.
3) A Boko Haram faction that seeks to attack Western targets is rebuilding its
leadership cadre in northeastern Nigeria.

3. 3
| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda seeks to incite fight-in-place attacks in the U.S. and Europe. AQAP emir Qasim al
Raymi called for retaliatory attacks against the West for its “traged[ies] against Muslims.” He
cited the Pulse night club attack in Orlando, Florida, as an example. AQAP branded the
video as part of its “Inspire” series, which launched in July 2010.
Outlook: Al Qaeda propaganda will aim to inspire would-be recruits to conduct small-scale
attacks in the West.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda
associates
The Pakistani government held talks with Iran on securing the Iranian-Pakistani border. An
Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general threatened to conduct cross-border
operations against the Pakistani-based Jaish al Adl militant group should Pakistan not
prevent additional terrorist attacks. Jaish al Adl militants attacked an Iranian border post on
April 26, provoking an Iranian threat to hold Islamabad responsible for the attacks.
Outlook: Pakistan will seek to improve border security cooperation with Iran to diffuse
tensions.

4. 4
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Southern Movement increased its control over Aden city after President Hadi’s April 27
removal of Aden governor Aydarus al Zubaidi sparked a wave of protests. The Hadi
government continues to operate from Riyadh instead of its de facto capital in Aden.
Outlook: The Hadi government will not regain influence unless it reaches a formal
compromise to re-incorporate Southern Movement leadership.
Security
Coalition-backed efforts to advance the frontline have stalled. Sudanese forces arrived in
Hajjah governorate to bolster the offensive against al Houthi-Saleh forces in Midi port city.
Outlook: Current frontlines will remain static through the month of Ramadan.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP attacked Emirati-backed forces in Hadramawt, re-opening a front against forces
aligned against it. AQAP media focused on its contributions to the anti-al Houthi fight.
Outlook: AQAP will contest Emirati-led efforts to restrict its freedom of movement in eastern
Yemen.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

5. 5
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 03 MAY: AQAP
militants
temporarily seized
Shaqra town,
southern Abyan.
2) 04 MAY: Hadi
government forces
claimed to retake
Camp Omari,
western Taiz.
3) 05 MAY: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces
claimed to launch a
ballistic missile
targeting Hadi
government forces
in Nihm, Sana’a
governorate.
4) 08 MAY: AQAP
militants attacked a
military base in al
Dal’aah district,
Hadramawt.
5) 08 MAY: Sudan
deployed troops to
northwestern
Hajjah governorate.
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5
4
1
2

6. 6
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Instability undermines governance in Mogadishu. Security forces accidentally shot and killed
Somalia’s Public Works Minister after mistaking his convoy for al Shabaab. Al Shabaab’s
attack campaign threatens the Somali Federal Government’s legitimacy in the capital.
Outlook: Financial constraints will prevent the SFG from improving security in Mogadishu.
Security
The U.S. military suffered its first combat death in Somalia since 1993. Al Shabaab militants
fired on Navy SEALs participating in an advise-and-assist mission for a Somali-led raid near
Mogadishu on May 4. The operation was consistent with the Obama administration’s
targeting restrictions, which the Trump administration eased on March 30.
Outlook: U.S. airstrikes may target the al Shabaab stronghold in Jilib in the near term.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab degrades security in Mogadishu by targeting Somali government and military
officials. A VBIED attack killed Major General Abdi Adan and seven others on May 8.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will intensify attacks to capitalize on international attention.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7. 7
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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2
3
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5
1) 04 MAY: U.S.
Navy SEALs
supported a SNA
raid in Barire,
Lower Shabelle.
2) 06 MAY: Al
Shabaab beheaded
two SNA soldiers
near Mahaday,
Middle Shabelle.
3) 07 MAY: Al
Shabaab attacked
a KDF base in
Bardhere, Gedo.
4) 08 MAY: An al
Shabaab VBIED
targeted military
leaders in
Mogadishu.
5) 09 MAY: Al
Shabaab seized
Goof Gaduud.

8. 8
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
A political breakthrough remains elusive after talks between Libyan National Army (LNA)
commander Khalifa Haftar and Government of National Accord (GNA) head Fayez al Serraj.
The leaders reiterated prior talking points in separate readouts from the May 2 meeting.
Serraj prioritized dialogue while Haftar called for continuing the fight against terrorism.
Outlook: Haftar will not sideline military objectives to participate fully in the political process.
Security
The LNA launched operations intended to end the battle for Benghazi. LNA forces attacked
the Sabri and Suq al Hout districts, the last remaining militant-held districts of Benghazi.
Islamist militants slowed the LNA’s advance with mortar attacks and IEDs.
Outlook: Militants will conduct explosive attacks in LNA-held areas to protract the fight.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS may take advantage of overextended security forces to resume an attack campaign in
central Libya. ISIS militants attacked GNA-aligned forces south of Sirte, killing two fighters.
Outlook: ISIS will attack security forces on the periphery of Sirte district.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA

9. 9
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
2
3
1
4
1) 02 MAY: The LNA
attacked the
Misratan Third
Force-led coalition
in Tamnahent.
2) 04 MAY: Militants
closed down the
Riyayna pipeline.
3) 06 MAY: ISIS
fighters killed two
Misratan Third
Force fighters in
Wadi Allod.
4) 08 MAY: The LNA
launched an
assault on the last
militant-held
districts of Sabri
and Suq al Hout in
Benghazi.

10. 10
| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
AQIM increased its operational tempo in Algeria, responding to an uptick in Algerian
operations targeting the group. AQIM claimed credit for two small-scale attacks on security
forces in northern Algeria, its first since March 2016.
Outlook: AQIM may reduce operations as the Algerian crackdown continues.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
AQIM-affiliated JNIM is conducting a high-tempo campaign against military bases in northern
Malian cities in order to fix security forces. JNIM conducted a complex attack on a Malian
army base in Gao region and fired rockets at a MINUSMA base in Timbuktu.
ISIS-recognized affiliate Boko Haram-Barnawi seeks to reconstitute its leadership cadre.
Likely Boko Haram-Barnawi militants negotiated the release of 82 “Chibok girls” for five
senior militants with the Nigerian government. Boko Haram emir Abubakr Shekau disproved
the Nigerian government’s claim to have injured him in an April 28 airstrike in a video.
Outlook: JNIM will force security forces to divert resources to guard bases while it gains
influence in rural areas. Boko Haram-Barnawi will plan attacks on Western targets in West
Africa during the month of Ramadan.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 04 MAY: Tunisian
security forces
arrested two
militants in
Monastir
governorate.
2) 04 MAY: The
Algerian army killed
a militant in Jijel
province.
3) 07 MAY: Tunisian
security forces
arrested an ISIS
militant in Sbeitla,
Kasserine
governorate.
4) 08 MAY: Moroccan
and Spanish forces
dismantled an ISIS
cell with members
in Tangier,
Morocco, and
Catalonia, Spain.
2
3
1
4

12. 12
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
2
3
1
4
1) 03 MAY: JNIM fired
rockets at a
MINUSMA camp in
Timbuktu.
2) 04 MAY: Boko
Haram-Shekau
militants detonated
SVESTs in
Mandarari, Borno
State.
3) 05 MAY: Boko
Haram attacked a
military post and
killed Chadian
soldiers in Kaida.
4) 07 MAY: JNIM
attacked a Malian
army base and
captured vehicles
in Tarkint, Gao
region.

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ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569