CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network. The al Qaeda network update includes detailed assessments of al Qaeda’s affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. Below are the top three takeaways from the week: 1. The Trump administration granted U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) the authority to conduct offensive airstrikes against al Shabaab, al Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, in order to increase pressure on the group. AFRICOM commander General Waldhauser testified that support for the Somali Federal Government (SFG) as it addresses the spreading famine is critical. Al Shabaab, which kidnapped four World Health Organization aid workers on April 3, is already taking steps to control the delivery of aid to areas outside of SFG control. 2. The U.S. and its partners in Yemen may miss an opportunity to gain allies against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in southern Yemen. Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff Davis reported the U.S. has conducted over 70 airstrikes against AQAP in Yemen this year, more than any other year in total. The pace of strikes and potential for collateral damage drove local leaders in Abyan governorate in southern Yemen to meet. The local leaders denounced support for terrorism of any kind, but also condemned civilian casualties and infrastructure. 3. The growing power of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar, who leads the force that controls much of eastern Libya, will lead to increased conflict. The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) is making concessions to bring Haftar into a political deal that would allow him to control Libya’s military. LNA forces are making a play for control of key oil and military sites in central and southwestern Libya. Haftar’s advance will spark backlash from his opponents throughout western Libya, however, and Haftar lacks the military power to win the resultant war.

1. AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
April 4, 2017

2. 2
TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
2
3
1
1. The U.S. will increase military support to counter al Shabaab in Somalia, but
worsening famine will limit the effects of security assistance.
2. The U.S. and its partners in Yemen may miss an opportunity to gain support
from southern Yemeni leaders against AQAP.
3. The growing power of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar
will lead to increased conflict in Libya.

3. 3
| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda
associates
Jamatul Ahrar, a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan splinter group with ties to the Islamic State of
Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), resumed a campaign of sectarian attacks in Pakistan. Jamatul
Ahrar conducted a VBIED attack on a Shia religious site in Parachinar in Pakistan’s
Federally Administered Tribal Areas. This attack signals the end of a month-long pause in
the group’s explosive attack campaign following a series of high-casualty attacks in
February.
Outlook: Continued Jamatul Ahrar attacks will inflame sectarian tensions in the FATA.

4. 4
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The al Houthi-Saleh forces’ abduction of international NGO workers adds challenges to
delivering assistance in northern Yemen. The humanitarian crisis is drawing international
attention, especially as the Saudi-led coalition discusses plans to seize al Hudaydah.
Outlook: The Yemeni civil war will further politicize much-needed humanitarian assistance.
Security
Coalition-trained Yemeni fighters from recently seized terrain joined the Hadi government’s
fight against al Houthi-Saleh forces in northern and western Yemen. The coalition seeks to
legitimize ongoing offensives in these regions, where the Hadi government lacks support.
Outlook: The arrival of coalition-trained fighters will not change current frontlines.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP may be covertly governing sections of Taiz city in central Yemen. The U.S., the
coalition, and the Hadi government may be missing an opportunity to gain local support
against AQAP in southern Yemen, where opposition to U.S. airstrikes is rising.
Outlook: AQAP will increase control over Taiz through proxy forces.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

5. 5
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 29 MAR - 03 APR:
Reported U.S.
airstrikes targeted
AQAP militants in
Ma’rib, Shabwah,
and Abyan
governorates.
2) 14 MAR: AQAP
controls Taiz
hospital, according
to local reports.
3) 02 APR: AQAP
detonated an IED,
killing seven al
Houthi-Saleh
troops, in al
Rawdah, al Bayda.
4) 31 MAR: Hadi
government forces
drove al Houthi-
Saleh forces from
al Thubani village
near Mokha, Taiz.
5) 28 MAR: Hadi
government forces
seized Midi hospital
in Hajjah.
3
5
4
1
2
11
1

6. 6
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
Anti-government unrest threatens the stability of the Ethiopian state. Ethiopia’s Parliament
voted for a four-month extension of a country-wide state of emergency, which was originally
enacted to crack down on violent protests against the government in late 2016.
Outlook: Protests could resurface in Oromia and Amhara regions due to lack of reform.
Security
The U.S. will expand military operations targeting al Shabaab in Somalia. The Trump
administration designated parts of Somalia as areas of active hostilities, providing greater
flexibility for U.S. AFRICOM to conduct airstrikes and raids against al Shabaab militants.
Outlook: Al Shabaab’s posture on the ground will adapt to increased U.S. pressure.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab advanced in central Somalia after Ethiopian AMISOM troops withdrew from
several towns in Galgudud region. Al Shabaab militants seized Elbur town, located 200 miles
northeast of Mogadishu, without resistance on April 3.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will attempt to seize Dhusamareb, the capital of Galgudud region.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

7. 7
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
4
2
3
1
1) 30 MAR: Al
Shabaab militants
fired mortar shells
at Villa Somalia in
Mogadishu.
2) 01 APR: Al Shabaab
militants ambushed
AMISOM convoys
near Afgoi town in
Lower Shabelle
region.
3) 01 APR: Al Shabaab
militants attacked an
AMISOM base in
Lego town in Bay
region.
4) 03 APR: Al Shabaab
seized Elbur town in
Galgudud region.
5) 03 APR: Al Shabaab
militants kidnapped
four WHO workers in
Gedo region.
5

8. 8
| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) appealed to the rival Libyan National
Army (LNA) in an effort to bring LNA commander Khalifa Haftar into the political process and
establish the GNA’s authority over the military. GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj
recognized Field Marshal Haftar as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Outlook: Haftar will continue to pursue a military solution to avoid compromising his power.
Security
The LNA is attempting to take control of military and oil sites in southwestern Libya. LNA
troops arrived at the Traghen military base in southern Libya and continued a standoff
against a Misratan militia over an airbase and an oil field in Sebha, southern Libya.
Outlook: The advance of LNA-aligned militias will cause tribal conflict in southern Libya.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
An ISIS group based in Libya may have facilitated a planned attack on U.S. soil. ISIS
leadership in Syria sent orders through Libya for an attack in the U.S.
Outlook: ISIS’s loss of Sirte city will temporarily disrupt its ability to coordinate from Libya.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA

9. 9
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
1) 21 MAR: The
MSCD established
checkpoints in
northern Derna.
2) 21 MAR: Misratan
institutions tried to
overthrow the
Misrata Municipal
Council.
3) 22 MAR: The LNA
clashed with the
Misratan Third
Force near
TamnahintTK
airbase and Sebha.
4) 18 MAR: The LNA
conducted
airstrikes against
the MSCD in
southern Derna.
5) 28 MAR: Hadi
government
forces advanced
2
3
1
4
1) 28 MAR: The LNA
conducted
airstrikes against
Islamist militants in
Jufra.
2) 28 MAR: LNA
troops arrived at
the Traghen
military base in
Murzuq.
3) 29 MAR: The LNA
dismantled a
VBIED in
Benghazi.
4) 31 MAR: The LNA
dismantled an IED
at a water
infrastructure site
north of al
Shwayrif.
5) 02 APR: Militants
blew up the bridge
connecting al Sabri
district to al
Lathama district in
Benghazi.
5

10. 10
| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
Algerian security forces maintain pressure on the leadership of ISIS-linked militant cells in
the country. Algerian forces killed the reported head of the northwestern division of the ISIS-
linked Jund al Khilafa in northern Algeria, as well as two militants in southern Algeria.
Outlook: Algerian counterterrorism operations will prevent ISIS from coordinating large-
scale attacks in the country in the near term.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
Al Qaeda’s growing influence is hindering peacebuilding efforts in northern Mali. Non-state
armed groups recommended that the Malian government negotiate with al Qaeda-
associated groups, which are seen as representatives of legitimate popular grievances.
Mamman Nur, a veteran Boko Haram leader, is consolidating control of the ISIS-linked Boko
Haram faction. Militants claimed allegiance to Nur during several raids in Borno State. Nur
was a deputy of Boko Haram’s founder Mohammad Yusuf and has ties to AQIM and al
Shabaab.
Outlook: The al Qaeda network will gain leverage over local groups as the peace process
stalls. Mamman Nur’s faction will prioritize attacks on Western targets.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

11. 11
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 28 MAR: The
Algerian army killed
the reported emir of
a division of Jund al
Khilafa in Tipaza
province, Algeria.
2) 29 MAR: A group of
militants crossed
into Tunisia and
joined cells
operating on
Ouergha Mountain,
Kef governorate,
Tunisia.
3) 31 MAR: The
Algerian army killed
two miltiants and
destroyed two
vehicles in
Chenachen, Algeria.
2
3
1

12. 12
| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA
SAHEL 2 3
1
SAHEL
4
1) 29 MAR: JNIM
militants attacked
the Malian army in
Boulikessi, Mopti
Region, Mali.
2) 30 MAR: Boko
Haram-Barnawi
gunmen and
suicide bombers
attacked civilians
in Damboa, Borno
State, Nigeria.
3) 31 MAR: Boko
Haram-Barnawi
kidnapped 22
women near
Pulka, Borno
State, Nigeria.
4) 04 APR: A JNIM
landmine killed
two civilians near
Mondoro, Mopti
Region, Mali.

13. 13
ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Group for the Aid of Islam and the Muslims (JNIM)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. 14
Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569