How are global analyses, forecasts and re-analyses produced? What is the status of the global system?

1. How are global analyses,
forecasts and re-analyses
produced?
Copernicus
Atmosphere
Monitoring
Service
Richard Engelen (ECMWF)
On behalf of CAMS30 team

2. OBSERVATIONS
Metop-B GOME-2 Metop-A GOME-2 OMI SBUV OMI
Ozone observations per 12 hours

3. ANALYSIS & FORECAST
Full 3-D fields that are
forecasted 5 days ahead.

4. CAMS SERVICE CHAIN
Space Agencies
In-situ component
National scale
CAMS

5. GLOBAL SERVICES
Real-time
Analyses
AER, CHEM
Forecasts
AER, CHEM, GHG
Delayed-mode
Analyses
GHG
Reanalysis
Analyses
AER, CHEM, GHG
Supplementary
Analysis
GFAS

6. GLOBAL SYSTEM
C-IFS
Observation
operators
Chemical
module
GHG module
Aerosol
module
Chemical
module
Aerosol
module
Meteorology
4D-Var
GHG module

7. Data
Acquisition
Data
Assimilation
Forecast
Data
Dissemination
Interaction
with data
providers
User
support
Validation
Routine
verification
Routine monitoring
Emissions
GLOBAL SERVICE CHAIN

8. CURRENT STATUS
• 80 km horizontal resolution
• One 5-day forecasts per day
• 00UTC forecast available before 22 UTC
• 40 km horizontal resolution
• Two 5-day forecasts per day
• 12UTC forecast available before 22 UTC

9. GFAS AND GHG SYSTEMS
GFAS currently provides daily estimates of global fire radiative
power and fire emissions of many species.
Aim is to better estimate diurnal cycle and forecasted emissions
(links with Land and Emergency services) and fully embed in
operational global system.
GHG system analyses CO2 and CH4 5 days behind real-time and
provides daily real-time 10-day forecasts of the same species.
Aim is to merge the two systems and run them as close to real-time
as observation availability allows.

10. CAMS REANALYSIS
CAMS interim reanalysis
MACC reanalysis
MACC/CAMS real-time
Control
Using experience from
MACC and CAMS-interim
reanalyses, the 1st CAMS
Reanalysis will start later
this year.
2003 – 2017
All current species
Additional observations
Ozone score

11. USE OF GLOBAL SERVICES
• Boundary conditions (CAMS, PANDA, HTAP,…)
• Pollution and long-range transport on global scale (e.g.,
large wildfires, volcanos eruptions, dust storms)
• Input for downscaling applications (e.g., smartphone
apps)
• Input for national forecasting services (e.g., dust, UV)
• WMO warning advisory centres
• Scientific community (field campaigns, scientific
studies, ...)
• ...

12. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT
Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower
Steve Jobs
• Use new satellite products: S3, S5p, OCO-2, S-NPP
• Improved UV products (health)
• More accurate surface aerosol and deposition (health, solar energy)
• Nitrates (key link between chemistry and aerosol)
• Stratospheric chemistry (ozone layer)
• Volcanic eruptions (impact on air travel and climate)
• More accurate methane emissions (monitoring of carbon cycle)
• Increased resolution
• …