With supply chain and fulfillment issues driving a fair amount of ecommerce holiday season uncertainty, we surveyed 80+ retailers to ask about their expectations and strategies for the 2021 holiday retail season.

1. 5 Themes for the Online Holiday Season

2. 2
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Survey of 84 digital retailers and their attitudes and expectations for the 2021 holiday retail
season
Survey fielded November 3-9, 2021
Study background
36%
19%
19%
12%
11%
4%
DTC/digital first (ie vertically integrated) Traditional DTC/omnichannel
Wholesale manufacturer Digital first multibrand
Multibrand omnichannel Other
11%
52%
26%
4%
7%
Less than $10MM $10-100MM $100-500MM $500MM-1B More than $1B
Type of Merchant Annual eCommerce Revenue

3. 3
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1. Cyber Meh-day
2. Island of Misfit Sales
3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces
4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments
5. Miracle in the 21st Month
Key themes

4. 4
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Survey respondents say they will promote less during
key promotional periods
Which best describes the volume/level of your holiday promotions this year versus last year for…
Thanksgiving and Black Friday Cyber Monday and Cyber Week December
10%
56%
35%
We are promoting more We are promoting the same
We are promoting less
13%
55%
32%
11%
51%
38%

5. 5
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1. Cyber Meh-day
2. Island of Misfit Sales
3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces
4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments
5. Miracle in the 21st Month
Key themes

6. 6
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Supply chain is a major issue…
21%
23%
38%
57%
75%
76%
Consumer spending levels down on gifts and holiday products
Labor shortages in stores (not enough store workers)
Inflation which will force us to raise our prices to consumers
Labor shortages in fulfillment (not enough warehouse workers, not enough
truck drivers, etc.)
Late deliveries by carriers/shippers (ie inability to deliver holiday orders on
time)
Supply chain issues (specifically having enough product available to sell)

7. 7
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…and that will lead to higher prices as well, and sales
will be on what is left
Which of the following have you done, or do you plan to do this holiday season, due to supply chain or any
other concerns? (click all that apply)
4%
6%
6%
7%
13%
17%
21%
30%
31%
43%
50%
63%
We aren’t doing anything special, or we aren’t concerned about supply chain issues
We are offering “personal shopping” on behalf of consumers
We are price matching competitors
We plan to have big promotions in Q1 2022
We are increasing the overall promotions for the season compared to last year
We’re encouraging shoppers to buy gift cards
We are offering access to our best customers first
We are reducing shipping offers because we are concerned about on-time shipments
We have been forced to change the products that we are promoting for the season
We are increasing prices because of inflation
We’re reducing our overall promotional volume for the season compared to last year
We’re encouraging consumers to shop earlier

8. 8
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1. Cyber Meh-day
2. Island of Misfit Sales
3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces
4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments
5. Miracle in the 21st Month
Key themes

9. 9
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Most consumers are somewhat aware of supply chain
issues
How aware do you believe your customers are about supply chain issues and decreased product availability?
23%
70%
7%
Highly aware Somewhat aware Not aware at all

10. 10
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Retailers plan to communicate shortages via email
What are you doing to help raise awareness with customers that products may not be available or may
not be available in time for Christmas? (select all that apply)
9%
21%
27%
31%
44%
44%
69%
Pop-up notifications
Incorporated into advertising
Order information FAQs
Customer service reps reminding customers
Shipping information on product detail pages (eg products can
ship on x date)
Persistent messaging on website
Email communications

11. 11
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Inventory will be a battleground…marketplaces are
well-positioned to thrive
“Online marketplaces are driven by supply
and demand and naturally backfill products
that are sold out everywhere else.”

12. 12
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1. Cyber Meh-day
2. Island of Misfit Sales
3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory…in Marketplaces
4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments
5. Miracle in the 21st Month
Key themes

13. 13
© Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Late deliveries continue to be a problem for retailers
21%
23%
38%
57%
75%
76%
Consumer spending levels down on gifts and holiday products
Labor shortages in stores (not enough store workers)
Inflation which will force us to raise our prices to consumers
Labor shortages in fulfillment (not enough warehouse workers, not enough
truck drivers, etc.)
Late deliveries by carriers/shippers (ie inability to deliver holiday orders on
time)
Supply chain issues (specifically having enough product available to sell)

14. 14
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There will be reductions in shipping promotions due to
carrier concerns
Which of the following have you done, or do you plan to do this holiday season, due to supply chain or any
other concerns? (click all that apply)
4%
6%
6%
7%
13%
17%
21%
30%
31%
43%
50%
63%
We aren’t doing anything special, or we aren’t concerned about supply chain issues
We are offering “personal shopping” on behalf of consumers
We are price matching competitors
We plan to have big promotions in Q1 2022
We are increasing the overall promotions for the season compared to last year
We’re encouraging shoppers to buy gift cards
We are offering access to our best customers first
We are reducing shipping offers because we are concerned about on-time shipments
We have been forced to change the products that we are promoting for the season
We are increasing prices because of inflation
We’re reducing our overall promotional volume for the season compared to last year
We’re encouraging consumers to shop earlier

15. 15
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There will be all manner of adjusting shipping
promotions down
Do you plan to adjust your shipping and handling offers this year in any of the following ways? (select all
that apply)
1%
2%
6%
11%
17%
21%
29%
32%
More days of free shipping
Lower thresholds for free shipping
More shipping promotions
We aren’t offering any free shipping this year
Fewer days of free shipping
Higher thresholds for free shipping
Fewer shipping promotions
None of the above
Fewer shipping
promos
More shipping
promos

16. 16
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Most retailers are shipping relatively slowly now
What is the standard (non-expedited) shipping commitment that you plan to offer to consumers this holiday season
(select most appropriate response)?
0%
4%
11%
10%
20%
43%
13%
Same day
Next day
2 days
3 days
4 days
5+ days
We do not yet know

17. 17
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For many merchants, standard shipping will end
weeks before Christmas
What is the last date prior to Christmas that consumers will be able to order from your site without
having to pay expedited shipping fees this year (select the most appropriate response)?
23%
35%
23%
8%
12%
Before December 11th (2 weeks before Christmas)
Between December 11 - 15th
Between December 15 - 18th
After December 18th (1 week before Christmas)
We do not yet know

18. 18
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1. Cyber Meh-day
2. Island of Misfit Sales
3. Yes, Virginia, There Is Inventory in Marketplaces
4. 12 Days of Slow Shipments
5. Miracle in the 21st Month
Key themes

19. 19
© Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Retailers are nonetheless optimistic
Considering both your company’s situation
and the macro environment, how do you
expect online holiday sales in 2021 will do
compared to 2019 (PRE-PANDEMIC)?
Considering both your company’s situation
and the macro environment, how do you
expect online holiday sales in 2021 will do
compared to 2020?
42%
40%
10%
8%
Much better Somewhat better
Same Somewhat worse
22%
45%
20%
13%
Much better Somewhat better
Same Somewhat worse

20. 20
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Many think their margins will be lower (which shouldn’t
be the case given higher prices and fewer sales)
How do you expect your margins to change in 2021 compared to 2020 (due to inflation, supply chain issues,
promotions, etc.)?
5%
21%
31%
39%
4%
Should be much higher Should be somewhat higher Same Should be somewhat lower Much lower
Lower margins could be driven
by expedited shipping, customer
service calls and refunds!

21. 21
Thank You.
Sucharita Kodali
VP, Principal Analyst
skodali@forrester.com
Twitter: @smulpuru