Two one hour lectures on climate change and health, presented to 1st year medical students (postgrads) at the Australian National University, October 2015
9. CRICOS #00212K
John Tyndall
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane
reduce heat loss, oxygen, nitrogen virtually
transparent to heat.
without these, Earth's surface would be "held
fast in the iron grip of frost."
10. CRICOS #00212K
Earth’s Temperature Chart, since
Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago
West Antarctic
ice sheet begins
Arctic ice
sheets
appear
East Antarctic
ice sheet begins
60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now
1961-90 av temp
Millions of Years Before Present
12
8
4
0
-4
Tempo
C*
(vs. 1961-90)
5o
C warmer
than 1961-90
?
Paleocene
* Global temperature,
measured at deep
ocean
3o
C warmer
than 1961-90
1.5o
C warmer
than 1961-90
s
s
Sea level 25-40
metres higher
than now
Sea level ~70
metres higher
than now
Paleocene-
Eocene
Catastrophe
Last 2m yr
= ice-age
10
12. CRICOS #00212K
CO2
CH4
N2O
2005
CO2 now
CO2 ppm
N2O ppb
CH4 ppb
Year
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Methane (CH4)
“Anthropocene”
Concentrations of main greenhouse gases - other than
H2O - over past 2,000 years (IPCC 2007)
12
13. Number of Years Before Present (quasi-log scale)
-2
-3
-4
-5
3
2
1
0
Agriculture
emerges
Mesopotamia
flourishes
End of
last
ice age
glaciation
Younger
Dryas event
(rapid re-cooling)
Little Ice
Age in Europe
(14th-19th
centuries)
Holocene
Optimum
Global Temperature: Past 20,000 Years; Next 100 Years
Temp.
change (ºC)
10,000 2,000 1,000 300 100 Now +10020,000
Medieval
Warm in
Europe (&
drying in
Central
America)
Av. temp. over past
10,000 yrs =15 ºC
1940
-6
Dark Ages in
Europe
White wine
grown in Sth
England
4
Vikings in
Greenland
Rome
ascendant
1975
14. Most radiation
absorbed by
Earth, warming it
Most radiation
absorbed by
Earth, warming it
Some energy is
radiated back into
space as infrared
waves
Some energy is
radiated back into
space as infrared
waves
The strength of the sun varies a littleThe strength of the sun varies a little
Aerosols: net cooling
effect
Aerosols: net cooling
effect
Feedback - additional
GHGs
Some outgoing infrared
radiation trapped by
atmosphere, warming it
Some outgoing infrared
radiation trapped by
atmosphere, warming it
15. CRICOS #00212K
CH4 CO2
Green house gases
N2O
Sulfate particles
Radiative forcing
NO2
CH4
O3
CH4
CH4
CO2
Slide adapted from one
courtesy Prof Steffen Loft,
University of Copenhagen,
Denmark
wetlands, rice, tundra,
biomass burning,
deforestation
CO2 CH4, black
carbon
CO2
15
16. CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K
IPCC, Wkg Gp 1 Report, Fourth
Assessment Report, 2007, p. 703
anthropogenic forcings
How valid are Global Climate Models (for predicting future change?)
19. CRICOS #00212K
Average global land ocean temp 0.88°C > 20th century average of 15.6°C, hottest
August in 136-year record, 0.09°C higher than previous record (2014)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201508
22. CRICOS #00212K
Australia: Getting Hotter
from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010
60
50
40
30
20
10
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Data source: Bureau of Meteorology
Average number of
record hot days per
year, by decade
No. of record hot days [max temperature] at Australian climate
reference stations, 1960-2009
No. of
record
hot
days
23. CRICOS #00212K
Australia: Getting Less Cold
from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010
No. of record cold days [max daily temperature] at Australian
climate reference stations, 1960-2009
Average number of
record cold days per
year, by decade
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
40
30
20
10
Data source: Bureau of Meteorology
No. of
record
cold
days
24. CRICOS #00212K
1. Thermal expansion
2. Melting land ice – Greenland, Antarctica
3. Other glaciers (eg Alaska, Himalayas)
4. Partly offset by dams
29. CRICOS #00212K
Prof Colin D Butler
Climate change and health (2/2)
ANU Medical School Oct 19, 2015
Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7,
2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)
30. CRICOS #00212K
Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines
Strongest recorded storm to make landfall
Direct death toll: >5,000
Displaced: >4 million
Total Burden of Disease?
Fraction attributable to climate change?
30
31. CRICOS #00212K
A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine
city fails to rebuild homes
Date: 29-Oct-14
Country: PHILIPPINES
Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes
built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city)
“The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as
factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries”
31
32. CRICOS #00212K
32
A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her
temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very
nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said.
Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
39. CRICOS #00212K
Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths
30
Mean
daily
temp,
2003
Mean daily
temp 1999-
2002
~12 o
C
above
season
norm
25
15 o
C
20
35 o
C
~900 extra deaths
during heatwave
350
300
250
200
150
100
0
Daily deaths
50
van den Torren, 2004
+8o
C
+12o
C
Daily deaths:
2003
1999-2002
~100 extra deaths
June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ……….
40. CRICOS #00212K40
Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses
Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009
Victorian Dept of Health
Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to
exacerbation of chronic illness?
46. CRICOS #00212K
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Ebi et al., 2005
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Bulawayo
Climate suitability:
red = high; blue/green = low
High probability
Medium probability
Low probability
Harare
Highland
s
47. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability:
red = high; blue/green = low
48. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria
Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability:
red = high; blue/green = low
49. CRICOS #00212K
Malaria in Papua New Guinea
Old location
New location
courtesy Prof Ivo
Mueller:
Institute of Medical
Research, PNG
49
51. CRICOS #00212K
Effects of Temperature Rise
on Dengue Transmission
Faster viral incubation in mosquito
Shorter mosquito breeding cycle
Increased mosquito feeding frequency
More efficient transmission of dengue virus
from mosquito to human
52. CRICOS #00212K
Map-projection of
changes to rainfall
across Australia to
2100 under ‘dry’ and
‘wet’ scenarios.
Using evidence from
published literature,
modelled how these
changes would affect
dengue distribution
over space and time.
Areas suitable for dengue transmission in 2100 under 4 climate
change scenarios (grey = ≥50% likelihood of transmission)
Bambrick et al., 2009, Global Hlth Action
4. Warm (strong
mitigation)3. Hot & Wet
2. Hot, Median
humidity1. Hot & Dry
53. CRICOS #00212K
1998 line of northern limit has moved north during ensuing 8 years.
1950 line from surveillance by U.S. occupation army.
Confirmed city
Non-confirmed
1998
2000
100 Km 1950
2006
Northern range of Ae. albopictus in Tohoku district, Japan
Tokyo
Courtesy of: Dr
Mutsuo Kobayashi
N
2003
54. CRICOS #00212K
1980s 1990s
Based on: Lindgren, et. al. 2000
Sweden: Tick-Borne encephalitis
Spread of Ixodes ricinus
tick to higher latitudes (and altitudes)
Warmer
winters
55. CRICOS #00212K
Bats (pteropid species) colonising urban environments Habitat loss,
new-habitat attraction, climate change
Potential source of many new viruses
Nipah, Ebola, Hendra, …
56. CRICOS #00212K
tertiary
Health effects of eco-climate-social stress
famine, conflict, pop’n
displacement, refugees,
development failure
5656
Mentalhealth
57. CRICOS #00212K
Prevalence of Stunting in Children Under 5 years (2005)
Black et al, Lancet 2008
57
Stunted children
57
58. CRICOS #00212K
Photo-
synthetic
activity
20o
C 30o
C 40o
C
Food Yields: General Relationship
of Temperature and Photosynthesis
0%
100%
e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007:
Globally averaged estimate: +0.5o
C reduces crop yields by 3-5%.
+2o
C
+2o
C
Plus:
•Flood/storm/fire damage
•Droughts – range, severity
•Pests (climate-sensitive)
•Diseases (ditto)
59. CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will impair farm production in many
poor countries and regions
Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080
Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global
Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007
< -25%
> + 25%
0 to 5%
NA
-15 to -5%
LESS
MORE
- 5 to 0%
5 to 15%
15 to 25%
-25 to -15%
60. CRICOS #00212K
decline in price due to
Green Revolution
oil, speculation,
rice panic
extreme events
World food price index (deflated) (1961-2015) (data FAO)
61. CRICOS #00212K
Climate change will 'lead to battles for food',
says head of World Bank (April 2014)
Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists
to work together to form a coherent plan in the
fight against climate change
61
62. CRICOS #00212K
1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict
2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and
conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778.
2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it
could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian
Conflict and climate change
62
64. CRICOS #00212K
Water
scarcity
Regions afflicted by problems
due to environmental stresses:
• population pressure
• water shortage
• climate change affecting crops
• sea level rise
• pre-existing hunger
• armed conflict, current/recent
From UK
Ministry of
Defence
[May RM, 2007 Lowy
Institute Lecture]
Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional
Tensions
67. CRICOS #00212K
Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works
Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed
by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure
68. CRICOS #00212K
Burden of
Disease
(proportion)
Year widely accepted
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury,
productivity)
SECONDARY (e.g.
vector-borne diseases,
air pollution, allergies)
TERTIARY: (a
“systemic multiplier”)
famine, conflict, large-
scale migration,
economic collapse
68
69. CRICOS #00212K
Attribution
For want of a nail the shoe was lost
For want of a shoe the horse was lost
For want of a horse the rider was lost
For want of a rider the battle was lost
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail
1390 C.E.
“Prisoners of the Proximate: Loosening the
Constraints on Epidemiology in an Age of Change”
70. CRICOS #00212K
Trenberth, 2011:
Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role
“science community much too conservative .. too many
authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in
error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no
anthropogenic (human) component”
70
“Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of
extreme weather because the environment in which all storms
form has changed from human activities”
WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
71. CRICOS #00212K
Oreskes & Conway (2013):
“Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the
premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in
something that did not exist than not to believe in something
that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and
“type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid
type I errors at almost all costs”.
71
Type 1 error spectrum Type 2
conservative?
risky?
precautionary?
risky?
88. CRICOS #00212K
Solar Power Will Become Cheaper Than Coal By 2017
HuffPost India | By Anirvan Ghosh
Posted: 14/05/2015 16:12 IST Updated: 21/05/2015 14:45 IST
Not a young science
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Tyndall/
Tyndall&apos;s experiments also showed that molecules of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone are the best absorbers of heat radiation, and that even in small quantities, these gases absorb much more strongly than the atmosphere itself. He concluded that among the constituents of the atmosphere, water vapor is the strongest absorber of radiant heat and is therefore the most important gas controlling Earth&apos;s surface temperature. He said, without water vapor, the Earth&apos;s surface would be &quot;held fast in the iron grip of frost.&quot; He later speculated on how fluctuations in water vapor and carbon dioxide could be related to climate change.
SECTION 1a – CLIMATE CHANGE
Notes made after discussion with Tony McMichael 11 September 2008
Ratio of impact of CO2 to other gases is 5/6
N.B. The relation of CO2 and other greenhouse gases – the CO2 equivalent is the impact of CO2 and the other important greenhouse gases – so with the impact of other gases the CO2 equivalent we’ve already reached is higher than the level of CO2 would suggest – actual level of CO2 is about 390 ppm, but with the effect of methane and nitrous oxide equivalent to approx. 455 ppm
Sources of methane – agriculture, mining (coal seam gas, burnt off over oil platforms etc.), refuse tips
Source of nitrous oxide – mainly agriculture
Hay, C.C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R.E. & Mitrovica, J.X. 2015. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature, 517, 481-484.
Figure 2 | Time series of GMSL for the period 1900–2010. Shown are estimates of GMSL based on KS (blue line), GPR (black line), Church and
White4 (magenta line) and Jevrejeva et al.3 (red line). Shaded regions show61s pointwise uncertainty. Inset, trends for 1901–90 and 1993–2010, and
accelerations, all with 90% CI. Confidence intervals for Church and White4 are from refs 7 and 23. Confidence intervals were not available for
Jevrejeva et al.3; data in this reference ends in 2002, so the rate quoted here
for 1993–2010 is actually for 1993–2002. Since the GPR methodology outputs
decadal sea level, no trend is estimated for 1993–2010. Accelerations are
consistently estimated from the KS, GPR, and GMSL time series in refs 3 and 4
(see Methods) from 1901 to the end of each reconstruction.
10-minute sustained wind speed of 230 kilometers per hour
Nguyen, P., S. Sellars, A. Thorstensen, Y. Tao, H. Ashouri, D. Braithwaite, K. Hsu and S. Sorooshian (2014). &quot;Satellites track precipitation of Super Typhoon Haiyan.&quot; Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95(16): 133-135.
A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes
Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINESAuthor: Manuel Mogato
http://planetark.org/wen/72387
The mayor of the central Philippine city worst hit by a super typhoon a year ago said on Tuesday fewer than 100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes had been built and that thousands were still living in danger zones.
Typhoon Haiyan wiped out or damaged practically everything in its path as it swept ashore on Nov. 8, 2013, with seven-meter storm surges destroying around 90 percent of the city of Tacloban in Leyte province.
Haiyan killed or left missing close to 8,000 people and displaced as many as four million.
&quot;Building more permanent homes is very slow and takes time. Hopefully, by January next year, the pace will pick up,&quot; Mayor Alfred Romualdez, nephew of the Philippines&apos; former first lady, Imelda Marcos, told reporters.
He blamed the lack of suitable land where houses which could withstand 250-kph (155-mph) winds could be built but said he hoped the 14,500 homes would be completed by 2017.
&quot;There are still 3,000 people in danger zones, many in tents and we want them all transferred to transitional shelters by next month,&quot; Romualdez said.
&quot;...One year after typhoon Haiyan, we are back but only about 50 percent,&quot; he said, saying the recovery effort was slowed down by bureaucracy, shortage of manpower and resources and other delays.
Construction materials, like galvanized iron sheets, were also scarce, he said, forcing people to use fallen coconut trees to build temporary shelters.
Romualdez did not mention graft as a factor in one of Asia&apos;s most corrupt countries.
The Philippines came in at 94 out of 175 countries in Transparency International&apos;s corruption perceptions index last year.
The Aquino government has a six-year 170 billion pesos ($3.80 billion) master plan to rebuild devastated areas, building about 200,000 homes and providing more sustainable jobs for 2.6 million people who living below the poverty line.
(Editing by Nick Macfie)
The complex interaction between these two typhoons and the warm air within these storms helps to build a ridge of high pressure over Taiwan this weekend. It is this ridge that effectively traps typhoon Koppu over the Philippines for a number of days rather than it being able to turn away from the Philippines and out of harm&apos;s way to the South China Sea.
The complex interaction between these two typhoons and the warm air within these storms helps to build a ridge of high pressure over Taiwan this weekend. It is this ridge that effectively traps typhoon Koppu over the Philippines for a number of days rather than it being able to turn away from the Philippines and out of harm&apos;s way to the South China Sea.
The January 2009 heatwave in Victoria was of unprecedented intensity and duration with maximum
temperatures 12–15°C above normal for much of Victoria, whilst Melbourne endured three consecutive days
of temperatures above 43°C.
The population health impact of this extreme heat event has been assessed by collecting available data
from five different sources: assessments by Ambulance Victoria (AV) metropolitan paramedics, locum
doctor visits by the Melbourne Medical Deputising Service (MMDS), Public Hospital Emergency Department
presentations as collected in the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD); reportable deaths to the
State Coroner’s Office (SCO); and death registrations collated by the Victorian Registry of Births, Deaths
and Marriages (BDM).
Data for the week of the heatwave, 26 January to 1 February 2009, was compared to the same period in
previous year(s). The results of this analysis have shown that there was substantial morbidity and mortality
related to the heatwave, with associated demands on health services.
The key findings were:
Ambulance Victoria metropolitan emergency case load:
• a 25% increase in total emergency cases and a 46% increase over the three hottest days
• a 34 fold increase in cases with direct heat-related conditions (61% in those 75 years or older);
• a 2.8 fold increase in cardiac arrest cases.
Locum GP attendances by MMDS:
• an almost 4 fold increase in attendances for direct heat‑related conditions (65% in those 75 years
or older);
• an almost 2 fold increase in calls to attend a deceased person.
Emergency Department presentations:
• a 12% overall increase in presentations, with a greater proportion of acutely ill patients and a 37% increase
in those 75 years or older;
• an 8 fold increase in direct heat-related presentations (46% in those aged 75 years and over);
• an almost 3 fold increase in patients dead on arrival (69% being 75 years or older).
Total all-cause mortality:
• There were 374 excess deaths over what would be expected: a 62% increase in total all-cause mortality.
The total number of deaths was 980, compared to a mean of 606 for the previous 5 years. The greatest
number of deaths occurred in those 75 years or older, representing a 64% increase;
• Included in these total deaths were 179 deaths reported to the State Coroner’s Office; a 77% increase
from the 101 deaths reported for the same period in 2008. Reportable deaths in those 65 years and older
more than doubled.
Mortality during heatwaves can be difficult to measure, as deaths tend to occur from exacerbations
of chronic medical conditions as well as direct heat related illness, particularly in the frail and elderly.
Excess mortality provides a measure of impact, but does not provide information specifically on underlying
cause of death.
This report provides a snapshot of a significant impact on mortality, morbidity and health service utilisation,
with the greater burden of illness and death falling on the elderly. The insights gained will inform strategies
already being developed to improve the resilience of Victorian communities to the impacts of extreme
heat events.
Down-scaled modelling, at national level, of future zone of potential transmission of malaria in Zimbabwe, under a standard scenario of climate change. Model is hybrid statistical-biological model, applied to probabilistic (‘fuzzy logic’) estimation. Model results do not tell us where the disease WILL be, but where it COULD be – and that has important implications for future data collection, surveillance, and field control programs (and expenses).
Figure shows the distribution of stunting in children.
Relatively high levels of stunting are seen throughout the SEARO region along with regions in Africa. (there is an accompanying slide in Black et al of stunting in India, by region) – INCLUDED IN SUPLEMENTARY SLIDES (NOT THE LEAST BECAUSE IT IS SO APPALLING)
Figure 2 from Black et al., 2008.
Climate change will &apos;lead to battles for food&apos;, says head of World Bank
Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change
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Larry Elliott, economics editor
The Guardian, Friday 4 April 2014 07.02 AEST
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As Jim Yong Kim warned of the risks of climate change, the UN said food prices had risen to their highest in almost a year. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Battles over water and food will erupt within the next five to 10 years as a result of climate change, the president of the World Bank said as he urged those campaigning against global warming to learn the lessons of how protesters and scientists joined forces in the battle against HIV.
Jim Yong Kim said it was possible to cap the rise in global temperatures at 2C but that so far there had been a failure to replicate the &quot;unbelievable&quot; success of the 15-year-long coalition of activists and scientists to develop a treatment for HIV.
The bank&apos;s president – a doctor active in the campaign to develop drugs to treat HIV – said he had asked the climate change community: &quot;Do we have a plan that&apos;s as good as the plan we had for HIV?&quot; The answer, unfortunately, was no.
&quot;Is there enough basic science research going into renewable energy? Not even close. Are there ways of taking discoveries made in universities and quickly moving them into industry? No. Are there ways of testing those innovations? Are there people thinking about scaling [up] those innovations?&quot;
Interviewed ahead of next week&apos;s biannual World Bank meeting, Kim added: &quot;They [the climate change community] kept saying, &apos;What do you mean a plan?&apos; I said a plan that&apos;s equal to the challenge. A plan that will convince anyone who asks us that we&apos;re really serious about climate change, and that we have a plan that can actually keep us at less than 2C warming. We still don&apos;t have one.
&quot;We&apos;re trying to help and we find ourselves being more involved then I think anyone at the bank had predicted even a couple of years ago. We&apos;ve got to put the plan together.&quot;
Kim said there were four areas where the bank could help specifically in the fight against global warming: finding a stable price for carbon; removing fuel subsidies; investing in cleaner cities; and developing climate-smart agriculture. Improved access to clean water and sanitation was vital, he added, as he predicted that tension over resources would result from inaction over global warming.
&quot;The water issue is critically related to climate change. People say that carbon is the currency of climate change. Water is the teeth. Fights over water and food are going to be the most significant direct impacts of climate change in the next five to 10 years. There&apos;s just no question about it.
&quot;So getting serious about access to clean water, access to sanitation is a very important project. Water and sanitation has not had the same kind of champion that global health, and even education, have had.&quot;
The World Bank president admitted that his organisation had made mistakes in the past, including a belief that people in poor countries should pay for healthcare. He warned that a failure to tackle inequality risked social unrest.
&quot;There&apos;s now just overwhelming evidence that those user fees actually worsened health outcomes. There&apos;s no question about it. So did the bank get it wrong before? Yeah. I think the bank was ideological.&quot;
The bank has almost doubled its lending capacity to $28bn (£17bn) a year with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 and spreading the benefits of prosperity to the poorest 40% in developing countries.
&quot;What we have found is that because of smartphones and access to media, and because everybody knows how everyone else lives, you have no idea where the next huge social movement is going to erupt.
&quot;It&apos;s going to erupt to a great extent because of these inequalities. So what I hear from heads of state is a much, much deeper understanding of the political dangers of very high levels of inequality,&quot; he said.
&quot;Now that we have good evidence that suggests that working on more inclusive growth strategies actually improves overall growth, that&apos;s our job.&quot;
Kim said he was shaking up the bank&apos;s structure so that it could lend more effectively and to end a culture in which the organisation&apos;s staff did not talk to each other. Instead of being organised solely on a geographic basis, the bank will now pool its expertise across sectors such as health, education and transport so that ideas could be shared across national borders.
The bank&apos;s private-sector arm, the International Finance Corporation, will be encouraged to work with the public-sector arm.
Kim said the changes had come about because knowledge was not flowing through the organisation.
&quot;We were working at six regional banks. The six regional banks were working pretty well, but there was not the sense that there was any innovation in tackling a problem – that if you went to the World Bank you&apos;d have access to that innovation.&quot;
Anonymous (1989). &quot;Health in the greenhouse.&quot; Lancet 333: 819-820.
Jarvis, L., H. Montgomery, N. Morisetti and I. Gilmore (2011). &quot;Climate change, ill health, and conflict.&quot; BMJ 342: 777-778.
Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, Shahrzad., Cane, Mark.A. Seager, Richard, and Kushnir, Yochanan., 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (USA).
WN - Syria
Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have
the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.
Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58.
Trenberth, 2011:
Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis
(no human role )
Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component.
.. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case.
task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58.
Trenberth, 2011:
Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis
(no human role )
Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component.
.. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case.
task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
Mossman, K. 2008. Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 105, 1783-1785.
Sharot T, Korn CW, Dolan RJ. How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality. Nature Neuroscience. 2011; 14: 1475-9.
Sharot T. The Optimism Bias. New York: Pantheon Books; 2011.
Sharot T, Riccardi AM, Raio CM, Phelps EA. Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature. 2007; 450: 102-5.
http://thesituationist.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/neural-origins-of-optimism/
“This time it’s different” – the life cycle of of hope ... and disappointment
Emerging risk - elements
A “social vaccine” – or is it fruitless?
Figure SPM.7: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual
mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 (see Table SPM.2 for other reference periods), (b)
Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5 year running mean) and (c) global mean ocean surface
pH. Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6
(blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical
reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all
RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model
mean is indicated.
Figure SPM.7: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual
mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 (see Table SPM.2 for other reference periods), (b)
Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5 year running mean) and (c) global mean ocean surface
pH. Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6
(blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical
reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all
RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model
mean is indicated.
Wide-angle satellite image showing Super Typhoon Haiyan approach the Philippines on November 7, 2013.Credit: EUMETSAT
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/globe-saw-a-record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2013-17037
Is &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;opportunity&quot; equal &quot;crisis&quot; in Chinese?Is the Chinese symbol crisis made up of &quot;danger&quot; and &quot;opportunity&quot; as is often quoted?
First of all, the Chinese symbol crisis is not one symbol but two.
The symbols for crisis in Chinese are made up of these two words:
They are pronounced wei1 ji1.
wei means &quot;danger; peril&quot;.
And ji means &quot;opportunity; crucial point&quot;
So literally wei plus ji equals &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;oportunity&quot;.
However in reality, a crisis is still a dangerous state of affairs - regardless of the language.
Crisis wei ji still means &quot;a situation that has reached an extremely difficult or dangerous point&quot;.
However, a dangerous situation can become an opportunity if wei ji becomes zhuan3 ji1.Zhuan ji means &quot;turn for the better&quot;. Zhuan means &quot;turn into&quot;. So zhuan ji means &quot;turn into opportunity&quot;.
In this sense, the Chinese symbol crisis can mean &quot;opportunity&quot; in a time of &quot;danger&quot;.
wei ji is commonly used as in
wei1 ji1 gan3 meaning &quot;sense of crisis&quot; and
wei1 ji1 si4 fu2 meaning &quot;beset with danger; danger lurking in every direction&quot;.
An inability to feed livestock and the high price of oats (the preferred food of horses!) led Karl Drais, a German inventor, to create a method of horseless transportation, the laufmaschine. Drais&apos; &quot;running machine&quot; is a prototype for the modern bicycle that lacks pedals and relies on the rider to start off with a trot and then ride once sufficient speed is obtained.
One factor making the challenges more severe is the major
participation in the global system of giant nations whose
populations have not previously enjoyed the fossil energy
abundance that brought Western countries and Japan to positions
of affluence. Now they are poised to repeat the West’s
energy ‘success’, and on an even greater scale. India alone,
which recently suffered a gigantic blackout affecting
300 million people, is planning to bring 455 new coal plants
on line. Worldwide more than 1200 plants with a total
installed capacity of 1.4 million megawatts are planned [76],
much of that in China, where electricity demand is expected
to skyrocket. The resultant surge in greenhouse gases will
interact with the increasing diversion of grain to livestock,
stimulated by the desire for more meat in the diets of Indians,
Chinese and others in a growing global middle class.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/28/vatican-climate-change-summit-to-highlight-moral-duty-for-action
Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming
At climate change summit Cardinal Peter Turkson warns on burning of fossil fuels, in a likely precursor to highly anticipated encyclical on the environment
Pope Francis shakes hands with the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, during a meeting at the Vatican. Photograph: Osservatore Romano/Reuters Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Vatican City
Tuesday 28 April 2015 23.30 AEST Last modified on Wednesday 29 April 2015 20.12 AEST
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Increasing use of fossil fuels is disrupting Earth on an “almost unfathomable scale”, a top Vatican official has said, warning that a “full conversion” of hearts and minds is needed if global warming is to be conquered.
The statement by Cardinal Peter Turkson, Pope Francis’s point man for peace and justice issues, was made at a Vatican summit on Tuesday, which focused on climate change and poverty. His call for a moral awakening of politicians and people of faith is a likely precursor to the highly anticipated encyclical on the environment, which was drafted by Turkson and which Pope Francis is expected to release in June.
“In our recklessness, we are traversing some of the planet’s most fundamental natural boundaries,” warned Turkson. “And the lesson from the Garden of Eden still rings true today: pride, hubris, self-centredness are always perilous, indeed destructive. The very technology that has brought great reward is now poised to bring great ruin.”
Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general who delivered the keynote address at the summit, said he believed the pope’s encyclical – coupled with the pontiff’s planned speeches before the UN general assembly and a joint session of the US Congress – would have a profound impact on climate change negotiations.
“[The encyclical] will convey to the world that protecting our environment is an urgent moral imperative and a sacred duty for all people of faith and people of conscience,” Ban said.
While he declined to comment on any details of the encyclical following his morning meeting with the Argentinean pontiff – the document has already been written and is being translated – he said he was counting on the pope’s “moral voice and moral leadership” to help accelerate talks.
Pope Francis’s September address will be the first time any pope has spoken before a special session of the general assembly.
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Both Turkson and Ban emphasised that scientists and people of faith were united in their call for action.
“Science and religion are not at odds on climate change. Indeed, they are fully aligned. Together, we must clearly communicate that the science of climate change is deep, sound and not in doubt,” Ban said.
Turkson called on leaders of all faiths to be good role models. “Think of the positive message it would send for churches, mosques, synagogues, and temples all over the world to become carbon neutral,” he said. “At a time like this, the world is looking to faith leaders for guidance. This is why Pope Francis has chosen to issue an encyclical on protecting the environment at this unique moment in time.”
The Protect the Earth, Dignify Humanity meeting has brought about a rare meeting of minds between scientists and religious officials on climate change, even if they frame their arguments in different ways.
Teresa Berger, a professor at the Yale Divinity School, said she believed the encyclical would have an overarching theological vision – one of “a God-sustained universe, anchored in a theology of creation as articulated in the biblical witness. And based on this, Pope Francis will probably not mince words, but note as evil, for example, the sin of exploiting the Earth.”
Francis has already said he believes global warming is mostly manmade and that a Christian who does not protect God’s creation “is a Christian who does not care about the work of God”. He has also linked environmental exploitation to social and economic inequality, saying: “An economic system centred on the god of money needs to plunder nature to sustain the frenetic rhythm of consumption that is inherent to it.”
Activists hope the summit and the encyclical will influence the next round of international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will take place in Paris in November. The pope, whose foray into diplomacy helped spur negotiations between the US and Cuba, is expected to address the topic in a speech before the UN in New York in September.
Some conservatives in the US, where the Republican party has fiercely resisted attempts to regulate greenhouse gases and questioned the scientific consensus on global warming, have criticised the pope for getting involved in the issue.
“Francis sullies his office by using demagogic formulations to bully the populace into reflexive climate action with no more substantive guide than theologised propaganda,” Maureen Mullarkey wrote in First Things, a conservative journal.
Another conservative group, the Heartland Institute, which seeks to discredit established science on global warming, held its own meeting in Rome on Monday – and will hold a second on Tuesday – in which officials derided the pope for taking on the issue.
Heartland Institute takes climate foolishness to a Biblical level
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“You demean the office that you hold and you demean the church whom it is your sworn duty to protect and defend and advance,” said Lord Christopher Monckton, a prominent climate sceptic and former policy adviser to the former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. Monckton’s opinions have been refuted by scientists, who have called his statements “very misleading” and “profoundly wrong”.
The summit at the Vatican has been organised by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, and its stated goal is to help “elevate the importance of the moral dimensions of protecting the environment in advance of the papal encyclical and to build a global movement to deal with climate change and sustainable development”.