This paper describes strategies to request, review and analyze mitigation plans, including discussion of real project experiences in mitigation through cost-based analysis looking at progress, compression, and fast track, ultimately recognizing the differences between the Contractors’ best case and the Owner’s best case.
Pmicos 2011 Review And Analysis Of Mitigation Schedules
1.
2. Review and Analysis of
Delay Mitigation Schedules
Jorge Gonzales, PSP
Miami Dade Aviation Department
Scheduling Manager
Chris Carson, PMP, PSP, CCM
Alpha Corporation
Corporate Director Project Controls
3. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Triple constraints
– Time
– Cost
– Scope/quality
– Fourth constraint often added; risk
• Most programs are driven by one of the constraints
– When one constraint must be fixed, others will vary
– In this case, time was the fixed constraint
– This requires a focus on mitigation of delays
• A structured effort is essential
4. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Miami International Airport
– Individual projects comprise renovation and opening
of gates
– Cost impacts from failure to open gates on time result
in millions of dollars of lost income
– Failure would also severely impact passenger access
to flights and create delays
– Progress towards gate openings is dependent upon
work in adjacent gate areas
– Utilities run through other areas, some public
– Phasing and coordination are much more complex
5. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Background
– Program management staff recognized the need to
actively manage the scheduling process
– Developed detailed schedule specifications
• Required as-planned resource data
• Required monthly reports of as-built resource data
• Provided additional schedule review consultant (Alpha)
• Required weekly schedule-focused meetings
• Mandated detailed schedule updates
• Required submittal of formal mitigation plans from contractor
6. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Steps in the mitigation strategy process
– Identification of the delay requiring mitigation
– Formal request for a mitigation plan from contractor
– Analysis of submitted mitigation plan
– Analysis of mitigation plan alternates & options
– Estimation of costs related to trade mitigation
– Recommendations for specific mitigation efforts
– Determine maximum risk
– Choose preferred mitigation option
– Choose mitigation strategy
– Issue change order for mitigation effort
– Re-baseline schedule to show mitigation
7. Mitigation Key Items
•Establish mitigation timeline for submittal, review, and
approval
•Ensure contract is set up for mitigation requirements; data,
schedule quality, direction
•Remove deal breakers from contractor qualifications
•Establish actual work in place at time of mitigation
•Monitor additional scope while mitigation is being prepared,
reviewed, and approved.
8. Mitigation Strategies
•Contractor best case versus owner best case schedule
What if schedule comparisons.
•Contractor mitigation by logic changes (fast-track)
•Contractor mitigation by compression (crunching)
•Mitigation by scope modification.
•Validate contractor’s mitigation to ensure value from trade
contractor mitigation plan results
9. Mitigation Flow Chart
Owner reviews
Owner reviews
compressed
•Contractor identifies mitigation proposal •Owners provides schedule
delay feedback to contractor
•Contractor submits and asks for missing •Owner executes work
•Owner establishes mitigation proposal
merit to delay documents order
•Owner asks contractor •Owner and contractor
for mitigation proposal reach agreement in
negotiation meeting
Owner chooses to Contractor re-
mitigate schedule submits proposal
10. Mitigation Check List
•Pre-impact schedule
•Impacted schedule
•Narrative for impacted schedule
•Time impact analysis
•What if schedule options
•Mitigation cost calculations
•Owner’s maximum exposure calculation
•Subcontractor schedule & cost calculations
•Contractor’s proposal
•Work order or change order
•Re-baselined schedule
11. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Identification of the delay requiring mitigation
– From contractor notification
– From trending and completion prediction analysis
done during schedule review
– The sooner delay is identified, the greater
opportunities for successful mitigation
12. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Formal request for a mitigation plan from contractor
– Ensure that delay is not contractor responsibility
– Provide specific request
– Embark on parallel course
• Evaluate scope reduction opportunities
• Evaluate worst case effects without mitigation
– Avoid overtime requests
• Limits risk of consequential claims – inefficiency
– Request includes breakdown of individual trade
contractor costs for use in analysis
13. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Analysis of submitted mitigation plan
– Ensure schedule represents current conditions
– Provide analysis
• Prospective for future impacts
• Forensic analysis for embedded impacts
– Evaluate appropriateness of logic changes
– Review logic to identify re-sequencing
– Load crews to identify net change in crew count
– Segregate trade contractor mitigation time
• Identifies best value for mitigation (lowest cost/day)
– Recognize that mitigation schedules are often not well
thought out
14. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Analysis of mitigation plan alternates & options
– After basic analysis and review, look at options
– Develop what-if scenarios for all options
• Include cost calculations per trade
– General options:
• Let the project slip
• Reduce, remove, or postpone scope
• Mitigation/re-sequencing
• Compression
• Evaluating interface milestone requirements for ability to relax
requirements
– Evaluate project time remaining
• Requesting mitigation too early may waste money
• May require future mitigation
– Evaluate impact on other projects
– Review to ensure all affected projects are included
15. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Estimation of costs related to trade mitigation
– Sort schedule by trade
– Identify time saved by each trade
– Compare costs per trade to time saved
– Ensure value in recommending mitigation on a per
trade basis
– Often the highest cost trade mitigations offer the least
amount of time saved
16. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Recommendations for specific mitigation efforts
– Contains relevant information related to final costs
and time
– Includes impact on other project milestones or
operations
– Identifies increased owner responsibilities
• More frequent inspections
• Off-hours inspections
• Limitations on access to certain areas
• Reduced submittal review time requirements
17. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Determine maximum risk
– Goal is to shift performance risk to the contractor with
issuance of change order
– Negotiate this shift
– Risk assessment
• Review project risk register
• Update risk response plan
• May require new risk workshop
– Duration achievement risks
– Specific impact risks
– Network risks
18. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Choose preferred mitigation option
– Review with project team
– Costs are generally of primary interest
– PM team will assess their comfort level with the
specific trade mitigations
– Meeting generates additional suggestions and
questions
– May have to request additional work from contractor
based on team meeting
19. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Choose mitigation strategy
– Final review of contractor’s plan, including their
response to any questions/suggestions
– Make final decision for choice of strategy
– Finalize negotiations with contractor
– Ensure meeting of minds
20. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Issue change order for mitigation effort
– Formalize agreement with change order
– Include all pertinent facts to define mitigation needs
and requirements
– Ensure this is done quickly
– Ensure it assigns performance and cost risks
– Identify any conditions required of the owner to
accommodate mitigation
25. A-B Infill Project
•Contractor analysis
•Identified 78 calendar days of delay due to 37+ changes
•Option 1 base mitigation price of $1.2 Million.
•Option 2 base mitigation plus most critical changes price
of $1.7M
•Option 3 base mitigation plus all pending changes lump
sum price of $2.2M
Owner analysis
•Developed what-if schedule to model changes: net impact
of 17 calendar days (including all changes)
•Identified maximum owner exposure of $1.3M
•Conclusion
•Owner choose option 1 for $1.2 million
28. BC Infill Project
•Contractor analysis
•129 days of delay due to MEP conflicts, late release of
structural wall design, and $5.6M in changes
•Owner max exposure to be $4.1M
•D21, D22, and D23 gate openings delayed by 63 CD at a
cost of $345,000
•Owner analysis
•Developed what-if schedule
•34 calendar days impact to gates
•Cost of $335,000
•Conclusion
•Owners decided only to mitigate gate opening
•A best effort T&M work order was issued
29. Mitigation Schedule Analysis
• Lessons learned
– Act quickly both in identifying and reviewing
– Analyze fairly, contractor has a tough job with
mitigation plan development
– Analyze carefully
• Schedule must be legitimate and appropriate
• Analyze costs separately after time analysis
– Assess all options
– Evaluate impact on all other projects/milestones
– Ensure reasonableness of plan
– Goal is to mitigate once and rapidly
30. Conclusion
Keeping the North Terminal Program on schedule was a
constant effort that involved review of schedule and cost
performance, incorporation of change work, incorporation of
mitigation plans, and updating of interface milestones.