Chinas Shifting Competitive Equation

by

Christoph Bliss
Ronald Haddock
haddock_ronald@bah.com

Conrad Winkler
winkler_conrad@bah.com

Kaj Grichnik
grichnik_kaj@bah.com

China’s Shifting Competitive
Equation
How Multinational Manufacturers Must Respond

1

China’s Shifting Competitive Equation
How Multinational Manufacturers Must Respond

By now, the world’s largest corporations have
poured billions of dollars, yen, and euros into About the Survey
China in pursuit of two basic objectives. One
Of the 66 companies belonging to AmCham
has been to create a low-cost manufacturing Shanghai’s Manufacturing Business Council
platform that could make and export products to that were surveyed in October and November
other markets. The second objective has been 2007, 81 percent were wholly owned by
to create sales and distribution networks that foreigners, 10 percent were joint ventures
can reach China’s 1.3 billion people, sometimes between multinationals and Chinese partners,
and 9 percent were categorized as “other.”
with products that are made in China but also
The manufacturers’ industries included con-
with goods imported into the country. In the
sumer, industrial, healthcare, and materials,
mind of far too many corporate strategists at with countries of origin including the United
headquarters, China should be treated much like States, Japan, and several in Western Europe.
any other emerging market. About one-third of the respondents had an
additional major presence in China beyond
But these old sourcing and sales models are coming their manufacturing footprints: More than
under pressure, according to a study conducted by 50 percent had representative offices, while
the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) roughly one-third had regional or global head-
in Shanghai and Booz Allen Hamilton. The “China quarters in China (because some companies
Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007−2008” study, surveyed were joint ventures with Chinese enti-
conducted for the first time in 2007 and planned ties, their headquarters were considered to be
annually thereafter, surveyed 66 manufacturers among in China). Other companies also maintained
the members of AmCham Shanghai’s Manufacturing regional or global procurement centers, or
Business Council (see “About the Survey”). It found research and development centers, in China.
that, due to low labor costs and high expectations
regarding a market of 1.3 billion people, multinationals
have tended to build export-oriented factories with operations elsewhere in the world. Nor have most of
operating strategies based on abundant, cheap labor them managed to integrate the dual functions of export
and distribution channels aimed at rapid increases in platforms and domestic market penetration. The study
annual sales. In neither case have multinationals, as showed that three out of four companies today lack
a whole, imported the very best practices from their fundamental best practices in their China operations.

2

Companies that do rise to the next management we will discuss the research results in some depth
level by integrating their export-oriented activities for before offering our own conclusions about the strategic
global markets with their domestic market operations implications of this research for chief executive officers
are achieving higher levels of profitability. The study and other corporate decision makers.
showed that companies that successfully integrate
their China operations enjoy profitability of 29.6 The State of China and Its Industry
percent, on average, compared with 17.8 percent It is clear that China’s manufacturing competitiveness
profitability for those that do not. But only one out of is coming under fire: More than half of the surveyed
four companies is able to integrate the dual halves of companies—54 percent—either strongly agree or agree
their China operations this way. with the statement “China is losing its competitive
edge to other low-cost countries in manufacturing.”
Multinationals will need to bring their best operations
to China and fully integrate their sales and sourc- Fortunately, the survey also revealed good news:
ing functions if they hope to retain an advantage as Even if China has lost some of its edge, it is still
China’s operating environment becomes more competi- very much in the game. Operating in China still
tive and costs increase. One of every two multination- offers huge advantages, which is why 83 percent of
als surveyed agrees that India, Thailand, and Vietnam the respondents say they have no concrete plans to
are challenging China’s position because, among other move capacity from China, compared with 17 percent
factors, the Middle Kingdom’s wages and other costs who say they do. Reflecting changing perceptions,
are rising and the increasing value of China’s currency manufacturers say the biggest reason to remain in
is eroding its cost advantage. Nearly one in five (17 China is access to its vast domestic market (see
percent) of these companies already has made the Exhibit 1). Manufacturers also say they are reluctant to
decision to move at least some China-based opera- spend the money to build new supply chains or other
tions to other low-cost countries in Asia and elsewhere. infrastructure in other countries.

Because we believe this is the first study to produce In fact, access to the Chinese market is now a key
a statistical portrait of how manufacturers perceive reason why many companies are coming to China in
their China operations and how they are structured, the first place: Access to the local market is important

Exhibit 1
Respondents’ Top Reasons for Not Relocating Out of China

80%
78

14

60% 13
Percent of Votes

39 40
40%
14 29 29
3 22
51 21
14
20% 13 16 6 16
14 13 13
3
5 6
8 16 13 6 8
12 10 10
10 3 55
0% 5 5 2 2 2 5

Vast Unwilling to Constraint Unfamiliar Country- Ongoing Better Better labor Ongoing Stable
domestic establish a on capital with new speci c favorable infrastructure productivity attractive tax political
market in new supply expenditure business risks government bene ts situation
China chain environment policy

Third Most Important Factor Second Most Important Factor Most Important Factor

Sources: China Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007−2008; Booz Allen Hamilton

3

Exhibit 2 most prominent in this shift are the appreciation of the
Respondents’ Key Motives for Establishing a Manufacturing Base
renminbi (RMB) and inflation in prices of components
in China
and materials (see Exhibit 3). Other factors they cite
80%
70.8 are wage increases and poor employee retention.
Percent of Respondents

70% 64.0
60% 51.7 Companies are feeling much of the cost pressure
50% 42.7 40.4 in the realm of white-collar managerial staff. The
40%
30% respondents report that they are paying management
20% staff 9.1 percent more every year and paying white-
7.9 6.7
10% collar support staff 10.3 percent more. In contrast,
0%
Access Labor Access Strategic Material Access Utility blue-collar staff costs increased by 7.6 percent and
to local cost to Asian move cost to cost
Chinese savings markets against savings talents/ savings raw material costs by 7.1 percent. On balance, most
market key global quality
competitors labor companies are facing annual cost increases of more
than 5 percent in wages and more than 3 percent in
Source: China Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007−2008; Booz Allen Hamilton
materials (see Exhibit 4).

At the same time that costs are increasing, China is
to more respondents (70.8 percent) than is the mere lagging behind global standards in many operational
use of China as an export platform, whether for world dimensions. Compared with companies’ existing
or Asian markets. This contrasts with 64 percent of global operations, China scored below standards on
respondents who cite labor cost savings as their major such important measures as logistics infrastructure,
motive for locating operations in China and 51.7 per- trade environment, access to technology, management
cent who cite access to Asian markets (see Exhibit 2). capabilities, and protection of intellectual property (see
To the degree that some executives believe China is Exhibit 5).
losing some competitive edge, the two factors that are

Exhibit 3
Top Concerns of Companies that Believe China is Losing Manufacturing Competitiveness

75%
70.3 70.3

60% 18.5
25.9
51.8

11.1
Percent of Votes

45%

25.9
14.8 33.3
30% 3.7
25.9
11.1
18.5 18.5
15% 29.6 11.1 7.4 11.1
25.9 11.1
18.5 7.4
14.8 3.7 3.7 7.4 11.1 7.4 3.7 3.7
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
0%
RMB In ation/ Poor Wage Sluggish Recall of Hostile trade Ongoing Poor delivery Potential Social
appreciation price employee increases product Chinese policies of the concerns reliability of nancial compliance
increases retention launch products U.S. and E.U. over local supply market (e.g., child
readiness due to quality against intellectual base instability labor)
problem China property rights

Issue with Third Highest Impact Issue with Second Highest Impact Issue with Highest Impact

Sources: China Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007−2008; Booz Allen Hamilton

4

Exhibit 4 China is slightly closer to global standards when it
Range of Cost CAGR Experienced by Survey Respondents
comes to logistics capabilities but is still behind in
70% 67 most industries. The sector where it is most behind
appears to be energy equipment. When it comes to
60%

54 electrical equipment, however, China is on par with
50
50% 45 more advanced economies (see Exhibit 7, page 5).
44
40% 37
When respondents were asked to compare China with
30% 27 other countries as a venue for relocation, it was highly
20% 18 17
significant that they cited lower labor costs in those
9 11 other countries as the largest differentiator, at 3.7
10% 6 6 6 on a scale of 1 to 5 (see Exhibit 8, page 6).
3
0
0%
White-collar White-collar Blue-collar Raw material
Clearly, the days of China’s being considered a
management supporting staff unit cost cheap labor manufacturing platform are numbered.
staff staff compensation
compensation compensation Other major factors in the attractiveness of those
CAGR = 0% – <5% CAGR = 5% – <9% other countries were tax benefits, the competitive
CAGR = 9% – 12% CAGR = >12% landscape, intellectual property protection, and utility
costs. However, there were a number of areas in which
China was superior to the alternatives, including the
size of the market, availability of supply base, and
The supply base is a crucial issue, and it’s clear that IT infrastructure. The countries most often cited as
Chinese suppliers are significantly less well developed possible alternatives to China were India, Vietnam,
than suppliers in the United States, Europe, and other Thailand, Malaysia, and Brazil, in that order.
parts of developed Asia. That’s especially true in the
automotive and energy equipment industries, and If companies have failed to thrive in China, however,
slightly less so in electrical equipment (see Exhibit 6, the competitive environment is not solely to blame.
page 5).

Exhibit 5
China’s Scores on Various Parameters Compared to Companies’ Existing Global Footprints

Intellectual property protection 2.05
5 = Significantly Above Standards
Government efficiency 2.46 4 = Above Standards
Logistics infrastructure 2.49 3 = Neutral
2 = Below Standards
Legal compliance 2.54 1 = Significantly Below Standards
Environment sustainability 2.56
Trade environment 2.58
Access to technology 2.63
International logistics Infrastructure 2.71
IT infrastructure 2.71
Currency stability 2.74
Management capabilities 2.74
Ease of financing 2.78
Labor quality 2.84
Availability of supply base 2.93
Readiness to best practice 3.00
Below Neutral Above
Standards Standards
Average Score


5

Exhibit 6
Comparison of Supply Base Quality across Geographies

5.0 5 = Strongly Positive
4 = Positive
3 = Neutral
2 = Negative
4.5 1 = Strongly Negative
Average Score

4.1
4.0 4.0
4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9
3.8 3.8 3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5 3.5 3.5
3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.3
3.1 3.1
3.0
3.0 2.9 2.9

0.0
Overall Automotive Computer & peripheral Electrical equipment Energy equipment Industrial machinery

China Asia except China Europe U.S.


Exhibit 7
Comparison of Logistics Capability across Geographies

5.0
5 = Strongly Positive
4 = Positive
3 = Neutral
4.5 2 = Negative
1 = Strongly Negative
4.0 4.0
Average Score

4.0
3.8
3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
3.5 3.5
3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
3.3
3.1
3.0 2.9
2.8
2.6

0.0
Overall Automotive Computer & peripheral Electrical equipment Energy equipment Industrial machinery

China Asia except China Europe U.S.


We asked respondents about how they are deploying product flows. But they are significantly behind in
best practices in their manufacturing, supply chain, network modeling and optimization, postponement
and logistics operations—and found that none of the of assembly, segmenting and tailoring supply chains
best practices, whether supply chain risk management by product characteristics, and statistical forecasting
or lean Six Sigma, was being applied by more than 50 (see Exhibit 9). There does not appear to be a wide
percent of the respondents. Their Chinese operations variation across industries in this regard: The computer,
have done best in integrating their enterprise resource automotive, electrical equipment, industrial machinery,
planning or manufacturing resource planning (ERP/MRP) and chemical sectors are roughly equivalent.
systems, calculating their inventories, and optimizing

6

Exhibit 8
Comparison of China with Respondents’ Most Favorable Candidates for Foreign Relocation

Average Score of Top Five and Bottom Five Parameters
Significantly Better
5
than China
Five factors in which alternatives are superior to China

Somewhat Better
4 3.74 Five factors in which China are superior to alternatives
than China
3.48 3.36 3.32 3.26
Similar to China
3 2.70 2.68 2.65
2.45
Somewhat Worse 1.96
2
than China

Significantly Worse
1
than China

0
Labor Tax Competitive Intellectual Utility Availability IT Market Logistics Size of
costs benefits landscape property costs of supply infrastructure growth infrastructure market
protection base


Exhibit 9
Extent to Which Respondents Apply Best Practice Levers to Existing Operations in China

100%
11 11 9 11 12 13 12
90% 20 18
27 30 27
15 33
80% 22 18 20 40
30 22 26

70% 23 25
18
60% 18 35 30 19
27 11 22
50%
33
28 40 40
40% 34 34
20 28 35 40
30% 38 31
36 35
20% 29
28 20 16 16 16
18
10% 21 16
11 16 11
7 7 7 2 4 7 5 7 7 2
0%
Integrated Analytical Optimized Advanced Push vs. Supply Optimized Supplier Lean Six Design for Network Postpone- Segmented Statistical
ERP/MRP inventory product demand & pull chain risk cycle integration Sigma manufacturing modeling ment production forecast
calculation ows capacity balance management on shop & logistics
planning oor

Not Applied Yet Minimally Applied Somewhat Applied Applied Fully Applied


A large percentage of the companies surveyed—43 The survey paints a complex portrait: These
percent—are consciously pursuing the dual objectives manufacturers have a large presence but either have
of selling products in China and taking advantage of not been able to or have not chosen to implement
labor cost savings, presumably for goods for export global best practices across their operations, and
(see Exhibit 10, page 7). Indeed, that appears to they are concerned about the changing cost structure
be the path toward greater profitability in China. they see unfolding around them. It is clearly a critical
Companies that report pursuing dual objectives enjoy moment for manufacturers who want to make the most
profit margins of 29.6 percent while others report only of their existing investments in China as well as those
17.8 percent margins.

7

Exhibit 10 web of capabilities, including manufacturing,
Respondents’ Perspectives on Whether Local Market Access or
innovation, new business model incubation, and
Labor Cost Savings is the Primary Motive for Operating in China
talent development. It’s not just another emerging
Neither motive market. Because of its size and its dynamism, these
companies recognize that China must be a core part
of their global strategies. They integrate their sourcing
10%
and sales operations in China, rather than focusing
Both on developing some operations aimed at the world
Local market motives
access as 27% 43%
while other systems concentrate on China. That’s why
major motive
we call the companies operating in this zone “global
supply chain integrators”: They integrate their sourcing-
20%
centric models and their sales-centric models in China
and deeply embed their Chinese operations in their
Labor cost savings planning and thinking about global markets. They treat
as major motive
China as a linchpin of their global operations, rather
Source: China Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007−2008; Booz Allen Hamilton than as just another market.

Postponement/Late Customization. One of the keys to
who are just beginning to recognize the possibilities making an integrated presence work, and the next level
inherent in one of the world’s largest markets. of the pyramid, is the ability to create manufacturing
systems that produce large volumes of products, but
Building a Strong Platform for Growth in China postpone the moment at which those products have to
We believe that the manufacturing philosophy employed be customized for specific Chinese and non-Chinese
in recent decades by foreign multinationals in China is markets. (This is an area where the research showed
in need of an overhaul. Far too many companies built that Chinese operations are particularly weak.) There
factories and distribution systems with low levels of may be an infinite number of ways to assemble a
technology and without widespread adoption of best personal computer, for example, but few of them make
practices from more sophisticated markets, assuming economic sense unless the company knows who the
that the low costs associated with operating in China final customer is. In an export context, rather than
would offset these omissions. But the changing cost
and currency structure have shifted the equation.
Now those pressures are beginning to force a rethink
Exhibit 11
of how these companies structure their Chinese Defining and Implementing a Globally Integrated Operations Strategy
operations and how they position China in their overall
global strategy. Management Summary

The best manufacturers are employing a thought pro- F
F Streamline through
Lean
cess that may be likened to a pyramid (see Exhibit 11). Lean
Practices Operations Levers
E
F
Global Integration. The base of the pyramid, and S&OP

therefore the starting point, is almost philosophical D Footprint &
and
network Modeling
Network modeling
in nature and poses a question to chief executive
C Tailored Business
business
officers: What are the fundamental guiding principles streams/segmentation
Streams/Segmentation Define Your
Operations Strategy
for organizing your Chinese operations? We have found B Postponement/
late Customization
Late customization
that the most global companies—IBM, General Motors,
A
and General Electric, for example—view China in a Global Integration/
integration/“The Zone”

global context and see it as part of an international
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton

8

building up a huge inventory of commoditized PCs in sary for rapid, last-minute configuration are available at
China, it may make more sense to use China for the the right point in its supply chain. Yet Dell has varying
early and middle stages of assembly, but not apply approaches to its supply chain for notebooks, desktop
culture-specific, customer-driven touches until the computers, servers, and other products. Although this
components get near the ultimate customer, whether in innovation is not exclusive to China, it provides an
the United States or elsewhere. example of how a company can master the application
of this concept in other markets.
There are at least three varieties of postponement:
Tailored business streams can be challenging to
n Light. Hewlett-Packard, for example, postpones
develop, but they can bring enormous benefits if
commitment of a printer to a market by making
companies embrace the best practices that are
universal printers and then applying power supplies
available in other markets today. Companies can
and language-specific manuals at the last moment
start the process by having a set of clear policies for
n Medium. The National Hockey League has replica jer- managing trade-offs in these systems and by creating a
seys made in bulk, but then customized in the final unified decision-making system.
stage with the player names and numbers, in quanti-
Footprint and Network Modeling. Manufacturers will
ties depending on the popularity of specific players
need to understand how postponement and tailored
n Advanced. When Motorola makes radio products, it business streams can best work for them in order
places the most expensive parts in a housing set; to take the next critical step: determining how many
labeling and packaging are undertaken only after a plants they should have, where they should be
specific order is received in a postponement center. located, and what their focus and mission should be.
Understanding China’s role in global operations is a
Tailored Business Streams/Segmentation. The net
key element in determining how to best construct a
effect of successful postponement is what we call
global manufacturing footprint.
a tailored business stream1. By definition, a tailored
business stream takes advantage of China’s capacity There are four key elements to designing a
for large-scale, cost-efficient manufacturing yet retains manufacturing network:
high levels of differentiation for both Chinese and n Let the product and the customer guide the process.
global markets.
Consider market requirements, including lead times,
To understand what a tailored business stream is, delivery, and services; if customers require short lead
let’s return to the example of PC assembly. It’s not times, it may rule out the construction of plants in
uncommon for companies to respond to customer distant, low-cost countries
demand by offering various levels of customization, n Identify economics and challenge constraints. These
which increases operating expenses without neces-
may include contractual obligations, regulatory
sarily adding value. Tailored business streams allow
requirements, and labor agreements
a manufacturer to identify the common elements that
unite 80 percent of its output and thus put the majority n Evaluate alternatives. In evaluating different network
of its capacity into a single stream, while reserving 15 scenarios, the total production and supply network,
percent of capacity for somewhat predictable demand which is generally much broader than the manufac-
conditions and 5 percent for opportunities that arise turing footprint, needs to be optimized. Take into
suddenly and therefore cannot be forecast. Dell Inc. is account the costs of complexity and the economics of
an example of a company that applies the postpone- manufacturing in-house versus outsourcing
ment and tailored business streams concepts to its n Develop the business case. The implementation
product: It customizes computers in response to a
plan for the new footprint should consider
specific order, ensuring that the components neces-

9

organizational changes and potential risks, such To be sure, there are clearly huge opportunities to
as supply interruptions, transportation delays, and use lean practices to improve existing operations and
currency movements. unlock latent productivity. Too few companies are well
integrated with their suppliers—and point-of-usage deliv-
Sales & Operations Planning. The next level of the
eries, which are commonplace in the developed world,
pyramid, S&OP enables coordination and joint planning
,
are not widespread in China. In some cases, there have
between departments, by ensuring that marketing
been poor localization levels in manufacturers’ supply
teams alert operations and IT when they plan a
bases. Quality problems in Chinese supply chains have
promotion; by increasing communication between
been widely reported, and they are of obvious concern.
product managers, sales executives, and processing
But they are just one part of a broader problem.
center leaders; and by establishing a regular forum to
resolve cross-functional issues. Smart manufacturers Shop-floor operations also are not integrated enough.
have found that better coordination between the sales Logistics, both inbound and outbound, are inefficient,
and operations departments, as well as planned rather and information systems are not producing the right
than ad-hoc decision making, can make the difference caliber of information. One problem is that companies
between profit and loss. To continue the PC example, have built ERP/MRP systems for sourcing and then
a strong S&OP system would allow a company to more other systems for their distribution channels. If they
easily determine if a major customer wants a shipment are going to be able to integrate their complete opera-
of very specific computers in two days or a more tions, the information systems also need to be linked.
generic order delivered a week or 10 days later. With
But the goal of achieving lean practices should not
better communication between the sales force and
drive the entire decision-making process in China.
the manufacturing team, the S&OP system would drive
Building full-fledged manufacturing and distribution
decisions about where last-minute customization is
capabilities on the mainland is becoming more com-
performed and where inventory is held.
plex than it once was, and decisions have accordingly
Lean Practices. Many manufacturers start at precisely become more complicated.
the wrong point in China by trying to create lean
In previous decades, it seemed that virtually any
operations without understanding their fundamental
plant built in China could become profitable because
mission and all the building blocks of the pyramid. We
costs were so low. And virtually any kind of sales
have found that it is wrong to tackle the challenge of
channel could reap double-digit gains in growth
lean practices, originally pioneered by Toyota, if the
every year. But now the challenge for companies is
fundamental operating philosophy is misguided or not
to take a more systematic and global view of their
adequately developed. We estimate that fewer than 5
Chinese operations and integrate the duality of those
percent of the companies in the world are able to fully
operations, thereby becoming global supply chain
deploy lean practices, and the percentage is much
integrators. Even more fundamental, perhaps, is
lower in China.
adjusting the philosophical premises that shape and
guide all decision making in China.

Also contributing to this article were Ken Zhong, Raymond Yeung and Ashish Ranjan.

10

What Booz Allen Brings
Booz Allen Hamilton has been at the forefront of been recognized as a consultant and an employer of
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Ronald Haddock is a vice president and director of transformations and is the lead author of Manufacturing
Booz Allen Hamilton in Greater China. He has been Realities: Breaking the Boundaries of Conventional Practice
with Booz Allen since 1994 and in Asia since 1997, (strategy+business books, 2006). He can be reached at
serving multinational corporations and local clients in +49 89 54525 553 or grichnik_kaj@bah.com.
the automotive and industrials sectors from Booz Allen’s
Conrad Winkler is a vice president of Booz Allen Hamilton,
offices in China, Korea, and India. He can be reached at
based in Chicago. His expertise lies in manufacturing
+8621 63406633 or haddock_ronald@bah.com.
strategy, manufacturing transformation, and supply chain
Kaj Grichnik is a vice president of Booz Allen Hamilton management. He can be reached at 312-578-4692 or
based in Munich. He specializes in manufacturing winkler_conrad@bah.com.

Dr. Christoph Alexander Bliss passed away prior to the final publication of this article. Booz Allen Hamilton
recognizes with gratitude his numerous and significant contributions to the advancement of the topics of
operations strategy and globalization.

Downloadable digital versions of this article and other Booz Allen Hamilton publications are available from www.boozallen.com.

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Chinas Shifting Competitive Equation

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