Land Market Report | 2014 Charleston Commercial Market Forecast

www.CharlestonCommercialMarketForecast.com
Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast
October 8, 2014 | Daniel Island Club

NFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALM
ARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GROWTH GEOGRAPHIC BARRIER
ONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE POPULATION GRO
GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS PORT NEW CONSTRUCTION PALMETTO PARKWAY CORRIDOR SUBMARKETS

Residential Land
Kevin Wadley
Vice President of Land Acquisition
Ashton Woods
kwadley@ashtonwoodshomes.com
www.ashtonwoodshomes.com
843.514.0561

Charleston is Winning!
#1 Top City in the U.S. and Canada Travel + Leisure
2014 World’s Best Awards
#1 Friendliest City in the United States Condé Nast
Traveler 2014 Readers Choice Awards
#2 Top City in the World Travel + Leisure 2014
World’s Best Awards
America’s Most Attractive People Travel + Leisure
Magazine
Source: Google

Population
Source: Census, TAMU
+11%IN LAST 5 YEARS

Annual Permits ( Single Family)
Source: Real Estate Information Service
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PERMITS CONTINUE TO EXCEED CLOSINGS

Annual New Home Closings
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2014 LEVELS +50% 0VER 2011

New Home Closings by Quarter
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2011Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2012Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014Q2 2014
New Home Closings by Quarter
+800 UNITS IN Q3 2014

Homes Sales in the Tri-County
Source: CTARMLS
No. of Sales Ave. Sold Price Ave. Sold Price/SF
Jan-Aug
2013
Total 8725 $284,755 $133.65
New 1736 $288,679 $122.76
Resales 6989 $283,707 $136.36
Jan-Aug
2014
Total 9237 $301,935 $159.56
New 1872 $309,727 $221.59
Resales 7365 $299,784 $143.74
YOY Change in Total 5.9% 6.0% 19.4%

Header
Single Family
98%
Multi-Family
2%
New Home Construction Type
• Charleston is primarily a single family market

Months’ Supply
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Months Supply

Submarkets

Top Performing Communities
Rank Subdivision Market Area Closings
Average
Price
1 CANE BAY PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 178 250,693
2 CAROLINA BAY WEST ASHLEY 99 288,844
3 CAROLINA PARK MT PLEASANT 51 496,791
4 SOPHIA LANDING GOOSE CREEK 35 209,146
5 DANIEL ISLAND DANIEL ISLAND 33 687,545
6 THE PONDS KNIGHTSVILLE 33 338,708
7 TANNER PLTN HANAHAN 32 328,294
8 OAK TERRACE PRESERVE NORTH CHARLESTON 29 210,619
9 SPRING GROVE PLTN GOOSE CREEK 27 190,340
10 BAKER PLTN LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 25 183,528
11 FOXBANK PLTN CARNES/CANE BAY 25 241,091
12 DUNES WEST DUNES WEST 24 396,268
13 LAKES OF SUMMERVILLE LADSON/LINCOLNVILLE 24 154,889
14 SIX FIFTY SIX CONDOS MT PLEASANT 24 387,825
15 WHITE GABLES KNIGHTSVILLE 23 222,991
16 BOLTONS LANDING WEST ASHLEY 22 245,871
17 FELDER CREEK CARNES/CANE BAY 21 196,254
18 BROOKDALE NORTH CHARLESTON 20 196,370
19 NELLIEFIELD PLTN NELLIEFIELD 20 257,885
20 FENWICK HALL JOHNS ISLAND 19 187,573

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
New Home Closings by Market Area
1/1/2013 - 6/30/2014

Johns/Wadmalaw Island
Kiawah/seabrook
James Island
Edisto Island
Edisto Island
Ladso
n
West Ashley
Ashley River Road
Awendaw/McClellanville
N Charleston
Daniel Island
Hanahan
Oakbroo
k
Mt Pleasant/Islands
Givhans
Knightsvill
e Summervill
e
Carnes/Cane Bay
Goose
Creek
Peninsul
a
New Home Price
By Market Area
2014

New Home Average Price by Market Area
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
2013 2014
Charleston Berkeley Dorchester
$313,146
$258,827
$286,834
$267,791
$255,036
$233,676

New Construction Activity

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
06/11 12/11 06/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14
Single Family Lot Closings
Ber Chs Dor

Mt Pleasant, Entitled Lots
Source: Valbridge
Average Land Purchase Price Ranges per entitled lot
2010 - 2012 $20,000 - $30,000
2013 $25,000 - $50,000
2014 $45,000 - $80,000
• Over 200% increase in price range

What’s next ?

More builders and
more
new homes!

Cane Bay Lakes – over 4,000 homes
Carnes Crossroads – over 4,000 homes
Nexton – over 10,000 homes
The Ponds – over 1,500
Limehouse Village- over 500 homes
Summers Corner – approximated over 4,000 homes
Grand Oaks – Grand Bees over 500 units
Fenwick Hills – over 150 units
Stono View – over 160 units
Maybank Village over 175 units
New Construction Planned to start 2014

Challenges?
• Downward pricing pressure with increased
supply of new homes.
• Builders still have a shortage of supply in highly
desirable areas, but inventories are larger in
other areas.
• Expect entitlements to take longer.
• Infrastructure needs to catch up with some areas
to support growth.

Land Market Report | 2014 Charleston Commercial Market Forecast

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