Transforming Science Education in An Age of Misinformation

Transforming Science Education in
An Age of Misinformation
Carl T. Bergstrom
University of Washington
NWCCU 2022
Seattle, WA
Nov 4th, 2022
Photo: Carl Bergstrom

It was only a matter of time.
In 2020, our luck ran out.

The COVID pandemic upended all of our lives.

Everyone had to become an epidemiologist.

People had to rely on social and traditional
media to understand what was happening.

And somehow a large fraction ended up not trusting science.

Percentage
fully vaccinated
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/

What happened?

Enormous scientific uncertainty around an entirely new virus

A public desperate for definitive answers

What is the infection fatality rate?
How fast does it spread?
Are some infections asymptomatic?
Are kids less susceptible?
Is there pre-symptomatic transmission?
What are the long-term consequences?
How long does immunity last?
Does Alpha spread faster?
How effective are the various vaccines?
How many cases are there?
Are monoclonal antibodies effective?
Does Gamma escape prior immunity?
Will we need vaccine boosters?

No way for responsible experts to provide them.

An information ecosystem designed to meet demand —
whether accurate, or not.

The result:
a massive
uncertainty
vacuum, into
which flowed…

Organized
disinformation
campaigns

Disingenuous
governmental
messaging

Equally
dreadful peer-
reviewed work

Overhyped press releases,
credulously repeated

People who see
a crisis as a
career opportunity.

Cherry-picked
anecdotes and
studies

And all of
this wrapped
in the
authority of
numbers

People didn’t know who to trust.

Some ended up following questionable sources.
Others just gave up.

The point of modern propaganda
isn't only to misinform or push an
agenda. It is to exhaust your critical
thinking, to annihilate truth.”
— Garry Kasparov (2016)
.

If we can be convinced that half of
our fellow citizens are evil, irrational,
or can’t be reasoned with, we begin
to lose faith in democracy.

Science education has to adapt
to a world of social media
misinformation and disinformation.

My view circa 2015:
Teach data reasoning

We are swimming in a sea of information
We swim in a sea of information

Much of it is digital. Quantitative. Data-driven

…and much of that is nonsense.

We’re good at spotting
misleading words.
Photo: Carl Bergstrom≈

Numbers are a lot harder.

Numbers feel technical, arcane, scary.

Numbers seem to come straight from nature.

Numbers have become central
to how we reason and to
how we communicate

But we are reluctant
to challenge numbers

This is a big problem because numbers
can be every bit as subjective as words.

Numbers are used to make
us feel alone—and helpless.

And so numbers are power.

But we aren’t teaching our
students to question numbers.

Our STEM
students
excel at
mechanics…
but never
learn to
think
critically.

Data visualization Big data / ML / AI
Media literacy
Nature of science
Positive
Not
positive
bupropion
SR
(Wellbutrin
SR)
citalopram
(Celexa)
duloxetine
(Cymbalta)
escitalopram
(Lexapro)
fluoxetine
(Prozac)
mirtazapine
(Remeron)
nefazodone
(Serzone)
paroxetine
(Paxil)
sertraline
(Zoloft)
paroxetine
CR
(Paxil
CR)
venlafaxine
(Effexor)
venlafaxine
XR
(Effexor
XR)
42
43
9 44
10 21 27 45 66
4 11 22 28 36 46 67
5 12 17 23 29 37 47 58 68
6 13 18 24 30 38 48 59 61 69 72
1 7 14 19 25 31 39 49 60 62 71 73
32 51
56
Journal view
Positive
Not
positive
42
43
26 44
9 21 27 45 66
10 17 22 28 36 46 67
4 11 18 23 29 37 47 58 68 72
1 5 12 19 24 30 38 48 59 61 69 73
2 6 13 20 25 31 39 49 60 62 70 74
3 7 14 32 40 50 63 71
8 15 33 41 51 64
16 34 52 65
35 53
54
55
56
57
FDA view
Clinical trial outcomes
Different perspectives
TOPICS
Selection bias
Correlation & causation
Presentation of numbers
Refutation

Algorithm
?
Data
Data
Data
Output
Even when you don’t know how an algorithm or
statistical test works, you can spot bullshit by looking
carefully at what goes in and what comes out.
Interpretation

Who is telling me this?
How do they know it?
What are they trying to sell me?
Media literacy

Lateral reading

Recent changes in our social
systems have been
Drastic.
Opaque.
Massive in scale.
Effectively unregulated.
…and designed not to promote sustainability
or human happiness, but rather via engineering
decisions to maximize corporate profits.

Numbers must be
presented in context.
That means they must allow
us to make relevant comparisons.

That’s 22.2 billion dollars a year.
This is less than half a percent of the US budget.
This is 67 dollars per capita in the US.
Given the estimated 8 trillion dollar cost of the pandemic
to the US economy, we could spend 22 billion a year for
centuries and still come out ahead.

Goodhart’s law
(rephrased by Marilyn Strathern)
When a measure becomes a target,
it ceases to be a good measure.
Campbell’s law
(rephrased by Carl Bergstrom)
When a measure becomes a target,
people to do stupid things.
Quantification and incentives

Machine learning and artificial intelligence

But what is that AI actually looking at?
Zech 2018; Zech et al. 2018

Designers have great
latitude to determine how
you feel about the data.

What I am thinking today:
Teach the social nature of science.

Recall the problem: people don’t know who to trust.

Data reasoning is valuable. But it’s not enough.
No one figures out everything on their own.

The enlightenment idea of knowledge solely through individual
rationality is dead. Our world has become far too complex.

Denialists often use
the “do your own
research” trope
against science.
I’m “not some sort of anti-vaxx flat Earther.
I am somebody who’s a
critical thinker. I “did
[my] own research.”

https://sciedandmisinfo.stanford.edu/

Science education must adapt to world of
social media misinformation and disinformation.

“The Soviet Union now has—in
the combined category of
scientists and engineers—a
greater number than the
United States. And it is
producing graduates in these
fields at a much faster rate.”
President Dwight Eisenhower. November 13th, 1957
Radio and Television Address to the American
People on "Our Future Security."

“This trend is disturbing.
Indeed, according to my
scientific advisers, this is for
the American people the
most critical problem of
all….We need scientists in the
ten years ahead. They say
we need them by thousands
more than we are now
presently planning to have.”

“We should…have a system of
nation-wide testing of high school
students; a system of incentives for
high aptitude students to pursue
scientific or professional studies; a
program to stimulate good-quality
teaching of mathematics and
science; provision of more
laboratory facilities; and measures,
including fellowships, to increase
the output of qualified teachers.”

Competent outsiders are ”people
who have learned to recognize
the moments when science has
some bearing on their needs and
interests and to interact with
sources of scientific expertise in
ways that help them achieve their
own goals.”
Noah Feldstein (2011)
Science Education 95:168-185

The public needs to know enough about how science works
to know why (and when) it is trustworthy

Core competencies for disciplinary practice
“Studying biology means practicing the skills of posing
problems, generating hypotheses, designing
experiments, observing nature, testing hypotheses,
interpreting and evaluating data, and determining how
to follow up on the findings.
In effect, learning science means learning to do science.”

Every one of these competencies could be
carried out alone, without outside human contact

We need to teach how
science works as a
social institution.

Logistics

Incentives

Expertise

Peer review

Uncertainty

Consensus

Self-correction

http://ctbergstrom.com
@CT_Bergstrom

Transforming Science Education in An Age of Misinformation

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