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Cape Cod Heating Options

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With moratorium for natural gas in place for a good portion of Cape Cod, Cape Light Compact has been working with several agencies to come up eith efficient heating options.

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Cape Cod Heating Options

  1. 1. Cape Cod Targeted Heating and Cooling Assistance Overview for Cape Cod Commission – Ad Hoc Working Group March 6, 2015 DPU / DOER / MassCEC / Cape Light Compact / National Grid
  2. 2. 2 Cape Cod Situation • 5-7 year moratorium on new natural gas interconnections for parts of Cape Cod • Parts of Cape Cod & Islands have no access to natural gas • Increased electricity prices • Residents seeking cost-effective alternatives for space and water heating Approach: DPU convened relevant agencies, utilities, and organizations to develop a coordinated strategy to meet customer needs for alternatives during moratorium Natural Gas Moratorium Towns Additional Cape & Islands Towns Background & Approach
  3. 3. Alternative Heating Strategy 1. Outreach: immediately engage with Cape Cod customers, organizations, and trade groups • First phase targets residential customers, commercial customers in second phase 2. Informational resources: create and offer consumers neutral data on alternative heating options 3. Existing incentives: promote existing efficiency and renewables rebates and financing options 4. Renewable heating: MassCEC promotes deployment of renewable heating technologies, including Timeframe: Throughout duration of moratorium 3
  4. 4. Technologies Options for space heating, cooling and Domestic Hot Water 4
  5. 5. Natural Gas Space heating and Domestic Hot Water • Standard technology • Not currently available to most Cape Cod customers • Conversion moratorium projected to be in place for 5-7 years (National Grid) 5
  6. 6. Electric Resistance Space heating and Domestic Hot Water • Standard technology • Easy and cheap install and maintenance, but highest energy cost of all technologies due to low efficiency 6
  7. 7. Fuel Oil Space heating and Domestic Hot Water • Standard technology • Requires ongoing oil delivery, but available Cape-wide 7
  8. 8. Propane, then Natural Gas Space heating and Domestic Hot Water • Specific scenario in which residence first converts to propane and then to natural gas when moratorium is lifted (assumed 7 years) • Cheap and easy conversion from Propane to Natural Gas ($300) • Only relevant for towns where natural gas distribution is available 8
  9. 9. Air Source Heat Pump Space heating and cooling • Mini-split systems are easy and quick to install (no ductwork) • Lowest upfront cost of the renewable heating options • Also provides A/C • Effectiveness depends on building lay-out (number and size of rooms) 9
  10. 10. Ground Source Heat Pump Space heating and cooling • Very high installation cost, though significant incentives available • Need for expert installer (limited installer pool locally), right underground conditions for well drilling • Also provides A/C 10
  11. 11. Pellet Boiler Space heating and Domestic Hot Water • Boiler and heat distribution technology is similar to Natural Gas and Fuel Oil, making it a good retrofit candidate • Central heating system with automated pellet feed • Requires bulk pellet delivery (~3x per year) - currently limited on the Cape • Need to have space for fuel storage 11
  12. 12. Heat Pump Water Heater Domestic Hot Water • Very efficient electric water heater • Mass Save rebate available • Best when it can be placed in basement or garage 12
  13. 13. Solar Thermal and PV Space heating, Domestic Hot Water and electricity • Solar PV: offsetting electric consumption, making it a good combination with heat pumps • Solar thermal: supplemental source of heating for domestic hot water and/or space heating • High upfront cost, very low operational costs, and incentives available 13
  14. 14. Data Cost scenario’s and Greenhouse Gas emissions 14
  15. 15. Analysis of Residential Customer Costs Financial analysis conducted for alternative technologies • Typical existing home on Cape Cod • Installation costs as Cape Cod specific as possible • Operational costs (20 years) based on current energy rates and EIA projections • Available state and federal incentives • Sensitivity scenarios • Electric and gas rates and heat pump costs • Duration of moratorium 15 Disclaimer: the analysis included here is generic and for illustration purposes only. Actual costs will vary based on project specifics.
  16. 16. Customer Scenarios • Comparisons • Upfront and Lifetime costs • Greenhouse Gas emissions 16 New Build: type of heating/cooling system needs to be decided Retrofit: existing heating system needs to replaced With/Without cooling With/Without cooling Heating distribution system needed Heating distribution system already exists Include Domestic Hot Water heater Replace existing Domestic Hot Water heater
  17. 17. Upfront cost for heating, hot water and cooling New home, including A/C, including incentives 17 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
  18. 18. Upfront cost for heating, hot water Retrofit of existing home, no A/C, including incentives 18 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000
  19. 19. Lifetime cost for heating, hot water and cooling New home, including A/C, including incentives 19 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
  20. 20. 20 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Electric Resistance Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Ground Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Lifetime cost compared to Electric Resistance New home, including A/C, including incentives
  21. 21. 21 -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Electric Resistance Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Ground Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Lifetime cost compared to Fuel Oil New home, including A/C, including incentives
  22. 22. 22 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Electric Resistance Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Ground Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Lifetime cost compared to Natural Gas New home, including A/C, including incentives
  23. 23. Lifetime cost for heating, hot water Retrofit of existing home, no A/C, including incentives 23 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
  24. 24. 24 Lifetime cost compared to Electric Resistance Retrofit, no A/C, including incentives -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Electric Resistance Ground Source Heat Pump Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Air Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Natural Gas
  25. 25. 25 Lifetime cost compared to Fuel Oil Retrofit, no A/C, including incentives -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Electric Resistance Ground Source Heat Pump Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Air Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Natural Gas
  26. 26. 26 Lifetime cost compared to Natural Gas Retrofit, no A/C, including incentives 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Electric Resistance Ground Source Heat Pump Fuel Oil Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water Fuel Oil/Solar Combi Air Source Heat Pump Biomass/Solar Hot Water Biomass/Solar Combi Biomass Pellets Propane/Natural Gas Ground Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Air Source Heat Pump/Solar PV Natural Gas
  27. 27. Annual Greenhouse Gas emissions Space heating and Domestic Hot Water 27 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 TonsCO2/year
  28. 28. Customer outreach Strategies 28
  29. 29. Alternative Heating Strategy 1. Outreach: immediately engage with Cape Cod customers, organizations, and trade groups: • Cape Cod Commission ad-hoc committee, • building contractors/realtors associations, • municipal officials, etc. 2. Informational resources: create and offer consumers neutral data on alternative heating options • Central web landing page and customer triage (Cape Light Compact) - http://www.capelightcompact.org/ccoptions/ • Informational handout (Cape Light Compact, National Grid) • Renewable heating concierge service (MassCEC) 3. Existing incentives: promote existing efficiency and renewables rebates and financing options 4. Renewable heating: MassCEC promotes deployment of renewable heating technologies, including • Coordinating with local groups organizing bulk purchasing • Supporting targeted marketing • Identifying industry gaps and supporting workforce training efforts Timeframe: Throughout duration of moratorium 29
  30. 30. Additional Slides Background information 30
  31. 31. 31 Acronym ER Electric Resistance FO Fuel Oil NG Natural Gas LP-NG Propane converted to Natural Gas after 7 years FO/SHW Fuel Oil with additional Solar Hot Water FO/SolCombi Fuel Oil with Solar Combi for space heating and domestic hot water BIO Biomass pellet boiler BIO/SHW Biomass pellet boiler with Solar Hot Water BIO/SolCombi Biomass pellet boiler with Solar Combi for space heating and domestic hot water GSHP Ground Source Heat Pump GSHP/PV Ground Source Heat Pump with Solar PV ASHP Air Source Heat Pump ASHP/PV Air Source Heat Pump with Solar PV
  32. 32. Customer Scenarios HVAC technologies modeled for new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings 32 Note: policy may need to be clear on fuel switching and/or savings adjustments from eventually switching fuels Space heating Domestic Hot Water Natural Gas Secondary heater Fuel Oil Secondary heater Electric resistance Electric Storage Water Heater Temporary shift to Propane and then to Natural Gas in 7 years Secondary heater Air Source Heat Pump Heat Pump Water Heater Ground Source Heat Pump Heat Pump Water Heater Biomass Pellet boiler Secondary heater Additional to Fuel Oil, Biomass Solar Combi System Solar Hot Water Additional to Air Source and Ground Source Heat Pumps Solar PV
  33. 33. Calculation details • Sensitivity scenarios • High electricity rate: 30% higher than EIA long term outlook • High natural gas rate: 30% higher than EIA long term outlook • High ASHP install cost: 50% higher than average cost of $4,000/unit • Low ASHP install cost: 25% lower than average cost of $4,000/unit • NG moratorium duration: 5 and 9 years versus assumed 7 years • Solar Installation assumptions • Solar domestic hot water: serves 60% of annual DHW load • Solar combi system: serves 40% of annual heating and DHW load • Solar PV system: 7kW financed with low interest loan 33
  34. 34. 34 Source: DOER Markets Division, data as of 1/31/2015 looking out to 2026
  35. 35. Base Case 35 New Construction – incl. A/C Technology Net Present Cost Capital Cost 20-yr Operating Cost Electric Resistance $ 83,867 $ 11,250 $ 115,696 Fuel Oil $ 66,319 $ 23,250 $ 73,263 Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water $ 66,087 $ 26,470 $ 67,781 Fuel Oil/Solar Heating $ 62,461 $ 36,900 $ 45,243 Ground-Source HP $ 58,815 $ 36,150 $ 38,569 Biomass/Solar Hot Wat. $ 58,669 $ 28,970 $ 51,338 Biomass/Solar Heating $ 58,464 $ 39,400 $ 34,540 Biomass Boiler $ 58,069 $ 25,750 $ 55,424 Propane to Natural Gas $ 56,967 $ 22,750 $ 53,311 Natural Gas $ 45,768 $ 21,750 $ 41,095 Ground-Source HP w/ PV $ 44,085 $ 36,150 $ 14,102 Air-Source HP $ 43,750 $ 12,650 $ 50,139 Air-Source HP w/ PV $ 29,019 $ 12,650 $ 25,672 Retrofit – excl. A/C Technology Net Present Cost Upfront Cost 20-yr Operating Cost Electric Resistance $ 75,407 $ 4,500 $ 112,483 Ground-Source HP $ 48,421 $ 26,150 $ 37,192 Fuel Oil $ 48,334 $ 6,500 $ 70,049 Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water $ 48,103 $ 9,720 $ 64,567 Fuel Oil/Solar Heating $ 44,477 $ 20,150 $ 42,029 Air-Source HP $ 42,531 $ 12,650 $ 48,211 Biomass/Solar Hot Wat. $ 40,685 $ 12,220 $ 48,124 Biomass/Solar Heating $ 40,479 $ 22,650 $ 31,326 Biomass Boiler $ 40,084 $ 9,000 $ 52,210 Propane to Natural Gas $ 38,983 $ 6,000 $ 70,049 Ground-Source HP w/ PV $ 33,690 $ 26,150 $ 12,725 Air-Source HP w/ PV $ 27,800 $ 12,650 $ 23,744 Natural Gas $ 27,783 $ 5,000 $ 37,881
  36. 36. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 36 Relative to NG Electric Resistance 54% Fuel Oil 40% Fuel Oil/Solar Hot Water 29% Propane to Natural Gas 24% Natural Gas 0% Fuel Oil/Solar Heating -16% Air-Source Heat Pump -34% Ground-Source Heat Pump -49% Biomass Boiler -50% Biomass/Solar Hot Water -54% Biomass/Solar Heating -70% ASHP/GSHP & PV -100%
  37. 37. 37 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction Base Case, incl. A/C Base Case, excl. A/C
  38. 38. 38 $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit Base Case, incl. A/C Base Case, excl. A/C
  39. 39. Sensitivity scenarios Testing sensitivity to electric and natural gas rates, as well as ASHP install cost 39
  40. 40. 40 $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction Base Case, incl. A/C High electricity - incl. A/C High natural gas - incl. A/C
  41. 41. 41 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction Base Case, incl. A/C High ASHP - incl. A/C Low ASHP - incl. A/C
  42. 42. 42 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit Base Case, incl. A/C High ASHP - incl. A/C Low ASHP - incl. A/C
  43. 43. 43 $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit Base Case, incl. A/C High electricity - incl. A/C High natural gas - incl. A/C
  44. 44. 44 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit Base Case, excl. A/C High electricity - excl. A/C High natural gas - excl. A/C
  45. 45. 45 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - Retrofit Base Case, excl. A/C High ASHP - excl. A/C Low ASHP - excl. A/C
  46. 46. Moratorium Length Sensitivity 46 LP-NG / Net Present Cost incl. A/C excl. A/C incl. A/C excl. A/C New Construction Base Case $ 56,967 $ 48,507 Longer Moratorium $ 58,828 $ 50,368 103% 104% Shorter Moratorium $ 55,092 $ 46,631 97% 96% Retrofit Base Case $ 47,444 $ 38,983 Longer Moratorium $ 49,304 $ 40,844 104% 105% Shorter Moratorium $ 45,384 $ 36,923 96% 95% Longer Moratorium = Moratorium is 9 years instead of 7 years Shorter Moratorium = Moratorium is 5 years instead of 7 years
  47. 47. 47 $- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 Net Present Cost (20y) - New Construction Base Case, incl. A/C Longer Moratorium, incl. A/C Shorter Moratorium, incl. A/C
  48. 48. Air Source Heat Pump with Solar PV – Upfront Investment • Ideal combination of PV with efficient electric heating/cooling option • Revenue from SRECs not included 48 Solar Installed Cost: $31,500 7 kW System @$4.50/watt Heat Pump Installed Cost: $11,000 3 – 1 Ton Systems Total Installed Cost: $42,500 Cool Smart® Rebates: ($1,500) (3 - $500 rebates) CEC ASHP Rebates: ($2,250) (3 - $750 rebates) MA Personal Income Tax Credit: ($1,000) (15% Solar Installed Cost, up to $1000) Federal Investment Tax Credit: ($7,875) (30% Solar Installed Cost) Net Owner Investment: $29,875 Heat Pump Net Investment: $7,250 (Financed through Mass Save HEAT loan) Solar PV Net Investment: $22,625 (Financed with DOER Solar Loan?)
  49. 49. Technology Summaries Additional discussion of alternatives 49
  50. 50. Natural Gas • Standard technology • Low install cost, easy/low cost maintenance • Natural gas prices currently low and predicted to remain low • Cooling requires additional A/C installed • New construction requires distribution system to be installed • Not currently available to most Cape Cod customers • Conversion moratorium projected to be in place for 5-7 years (National Grid) 50
  51. 51. Electric Resistance • Standard technology • Easy and cheap install and maintenance, not location sensitive • Highest energy cost of all technologies due to low efficiency • Cooling requires additional A/C installed 51
  52. 52. Propane, then Natural Gas • Specific scenario in which residence first converts to propane and then to natural gas when moratorium is lifted (assumed 7 years) • Lifetime cost savings compared to Fuel Oil (15-20%) or Electric Resistance (35-50%) • New construction requires distribution system to be installed • Cheap and easy conversion from Propane to Natural Gas ($300) • Requires installation and rental of propane tank ($100 per year) • Cleaner burning fuel than Fuel Oil • Cooling requires additional A/C installed 52
  53. 53. Air Source Heat Pump • Mini-split systems are easy and quick to install (no ductwork) • Lowest upfront cost of the renewable heating options • Energy bill impact: • Compared to Electric Resistance: lowers electricity use by X2, X3 • Compared to fossil fuels: increases electricity use, but heating cost savings compared to Fuel Oil/Propane, not compared to Natural Gas • Effectiveness depends on building lay-out (number and size of rooms) • Also provides A/C • Does not require installation of distribution system for new construction 53
  54. 54. Ground Source Heat Pump • Very high installation cost, though significant incentives available • Need for expert installer, right underground conditions for well drilling • Limited installer pool locally • Energy bill impact: • Compared to Electric Resistance: lowers electricity use by X3, X4 • Compared to fossil fuels: increases electricity use, but lowest operational heating costs of all technologies • Also provides A/C 54
  55. 55. Pellet Boiler • Boiler and heat distribution technology is similar to Natural Gas and Fuel Oil, making it a good retrofit candidate • Need to have space for fuel storage • Relatively high upfront cost, though significant incentives available • Maintenance required, but limited • Bulk pellet delivery on the Cape currently limited • Cooling requires additional A/C installed • New construction requires distribution system to be installed 55

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