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Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade

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Briefing Organized by the Australia Post, Canberra, Australia, August 11, 2015

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Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade

  1. 1. “Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade” Briefing Organized by the Australia Post Canberra, Australia August 11, 2015 Dr. Larry Smarr Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology Harry E. Gruber Professor, Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD http://lsmarr.calit2.net
  2. 2. If You Are Planning On a Ten Year Horizon It Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade… One Decade www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png From One Million to One Billion Users In Less Than 8 Years! www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com
  3. 3. Australia’s Citizens Now Depend on IT Companies That Were Born Only Ten Years Ago www.socialmedianews.com.au/social-media-statistics-australia-june-2015/ 50% of Australian Population
  4. 4. The Scale of the Web Today: “You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion” * • Facebook – 1.5 Billion Active Users • YouTube – 4 Billion Video Views Each Day • Google – Over One Billion Searches Every Day • Apple – 25 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year • Smartphones – 2 Billion Users * From the Movie The Social Network (2010)
  5. 5. The Global Planetary Computer Powers These Disruptions The Computing Power to Make a Single Google Search Is More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program! http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
  6. 6. Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade • Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation • Networked Virtual Reality • Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure • Brain-Inspired Computing
  7. 7. Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation
  8. 8. Software Frameworks Are Emerging to Disrupt Prior Physical-Based Industries
  9. 9. Airbnb’s Market Cap is Over Twice That of Hyatt The company was launched in 2008, and has a listing of around 1.4 million various houses, apartments, rooms, and exotic locations to rent. Since then, more than 35 million travellers have availed its service. The company’s operations span around 34,000 cities
  10. 10. Next Stage in Uber Move to Driverless Cars
  11. 11. Traffic Control for Drone Air Delivery is Under Development by NASA, Amazon, & Google
  12. 12. Networked Virtual Reality
  13. 13. Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described a World of Remote Viewing A policeman from Earth, where the population all lives underground in close quarters, is called in to investigate a murder on a distant world. This world is populated by very few humans, rarely if ever, coming into physical proximity of each other. Instead the people "View" each other with trimensional “holographic” images. 1956
  14. 14. Caterpillar / NCSA: Distributed Virtual Reality for Global-Scale Collaborative Prototyping Real Time Linked Virtual Reality and Audio-Video Between NCSA, Peoria, Houston, and Germany www.sv.vt.edu/future/vt-cave/apps/CatDistVR/DVR.html 1996
  15. 15. Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2 and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength EVL Calit2 Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013
  16. 16. Optical Fibers Link Australian and US Big Data Researchers
  17. 17. Next Step: Use AARnet/PRP to Set Up Planetary-Scale Shared Virtual Worlds Digital Arena, UTS Sydney CAVE2, Monash U, Melbourne CAVE2, EVL, Chicago
  18. 18. Why Would a Social Network Company Buy a Consumer Virtual Reality Company?
  19. 19. One Year Later… "We're working on VR because I think it's the next major computing and communication platform after phones,“ -Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO July 1, 2015
  20. 20. Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure
  21. 21. Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2 Since Industrial Era Began Little Ice Age Medieval Warm Period 388 ppm in 2010 June 2015 CO2 402.8
  22. 22. Atmospheric CO2 Levels for Last 800,000 Years and Several Projections for the 21st Century Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program Report (2009) 2100 No Emission Controls--MIT Study 2100 Shell Blueprints Scenario 2100 Post-Copenhagen Agreements-MIT Model Graph from: www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments /us-impacts/download-the-report
  23. 23. Human Induced Sea Level Rise Will Continue for Centuries Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, Allison, et al. (2009) Meters of Sea Level Rise 5 3 10.2 Meter Rise 1 Meter will Submerge Over 2 Million sq. km of Land Where ~150 Million People Live, Mostly in Asia
  24. 24. If Greenland Melts, Sea Level Rises 6 meters If Antarctica Melts, Sea Level Rises 60 meters Further 66 Future Potential Sea Level Rise If Greenland and Antarctica Melt 6 http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html
  25. 25. The Disruptive Transition to Intelligent, Secure, Low Carbon, and Climate Adaptive Infrastructure • The First Wave: – Infrastructure Will Gradually Become “Intelligent” • The Second Wave: – From High to Low Carbon Emissions • The Third Wave: – Climate Change is Now Occurring on a Time Scale Commensurate With the Lifetime of Infrastructure
  26. 26. Buildings Are Becoming “Internets of Things” Key to Reducing 40% of U.S. CO2 Emissions • Microsoft Collects 500M Data Points/Day from its Campus • Estimated to Become ~$200B/Year Industry by 2016 Source: Jim Young Realcomm
  27. 27. A Critical Component of Adding Intelligence to Infrastructure is Keeping it Secure
  28. 28. An American Business Plan for Moving to a Low Carbon Economy www.americanenergyinnovation.org
  29. 29. The Transition to Climate Adaptive Infrastructure: “Rising Currents” Exhibit at Museum of Modern Art New York City's Harbor & Coastline -- How it Could be Restructured to Deal with the Rising Sea Level www.moma.org/explore/inside_out/category/rising-currents#description New Ways to Occupy the Harbor With Adaptive “Soft” Infrastructures
  30. 30. Brain-Inspired Computing
  31. 31. Reverse Engineering of the Brain: Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains Reveals Complex Connectivity Neuron Cell Bodies Neuronal Dendritic Overlap Region Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD
  32. 32. Using Nanotechnology to Read Out the Living Brain Is Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
  33. 33. The March to the Exascale Supercomputer: As Fast as One Billion Smartphones
  34. 34. The Exascale Power Conundrum: Why We Have to Turn to Brain-Inspired Computers • Straightforward Extrapolation Results in a Real Time Human Brain Scale Simulation at 1–10 Exaflop/s with 4 PB of Memory • A Digital Computer with this Performance Might be Available in 2022–2024 with a Power Consumption of >20–30 MW • The Human Brain Runs on 20 W • Our Brain is a Million Times More Power Efficient! Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  35. 35. Realtime Simulation of Human Brain Possible Within the Next Ten Years With Exascale Supercomputer Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center Fastest Supercomputer Trend Line Tianhe-2
  36. 36. Massive Public Private Partnership to Accelerate Brain-Inspired Computers Jan/Feb 2014 Over $100 Million
  37. 37. Brain-Inspired Processors Are The Start of the non-von Neumann Architecture Era “On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips. ‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.” Source: Dr. Dharmendra Modha Founding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group
  38. 38. Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer April 2014
  39. 39. Cognitive Computing Is Beginning to Assist Medical Professionals
  40. 40. Massive Amounts of Data Combined With Planetary-Scale Computing Leads to Deep Learning April 2013
  41. 41. A New Generation of Human Body Sensors Will Provide Continuous Readouts Startup MC10 Working With UIUC UC San Diego
  42. 42. A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease and making health care affordable for everyone. ESSAY An Evolution Toward a Programmable Universe By LARRY SMARR Published: December 5, 2011
  43. 43. The Defining Issue in IT for the Coming Decades May 5, 2015August 25, 2015
  44. 44. This Next Decade’s Computing Transition Will Not Be Just About Technology "Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well- argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society If our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great caution? – Bill Joy Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking
  45. 45. Should We Give Robots Autonomy?
  46. 46. For Further Information: