Enterprise 2020 MarketPlace Event, 28 October 2010

1. The Enabling Technologies for a
Low Carbon Economy
Project Overview
Imperial College London,
London SW7 2AZ, UK
Dr Peter Thomond Dr Ian Mackenzie Prof David Gann Alex Velkov
peter.thomond@thinkplaydo.com Ian.mackenzie@thinkplaydo.com david.gann@thinkplaydo.com alex.velkov@thinkplaydo.com

2. Why do this project?
Our project was born from three observations:
1.The products and services of the ICT industry are among the major enabling
technologies for carbon abatement in most other industries.
2.Carbon abatement will be enabled by the successful invention, development
and exploitation of products and services that can change the rules of our
carbon based economy – there is a need for ‘disruptive’ and ‘breakthrough’
innovation. Yet, industry incumbents do not have a great track record doing
things differently. They are specialists in improving what they currently do, not
driving the adoption of ‘disruptive’ change.
3.The ICT industry feels that public policy – national and international - is not
aligned with driving the adoption of ICT as an enabling technology of carbon
abatement.
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3. Project Objectives
We’re exploring how technology can act as an enabler of a low
carbon economy across Europe.
Our two-fold objective is to deliver:
1. A toolkit for businesses, policy-makers and academics.
The toolkit will create a standardised way to explore:
(a) the potential impact of specific technologies and systems on the carbon
emissions of specific European countries, and
(b) the barriers to achieving this impact and how these can be overcome by
industry or by governments.
2. A collection of case studies.
The case studies will demonstrate the application of the tool above with respect to
specific products, services and infrastructures in specific countries.
These can be used to support business cases, policy decisions and lobbying action.
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4. Project Objectives
Success cannot be achieved unless industry, policy makers and
academia join us and our partners on our journey.
We must build a Low Carbon Coalition that will:
• consist of organisations that can the drive the development of a low carbon
economy;
• help direct, scrutinise and enhance the research methods and outputs of our work;
• be a powerful reference group and source of influence and inspiration for policy
makers and business across Europe;
• seek to use our independent analyses to guide changes to government policy and
procurement choices and help establish new technology test beds.
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5. Our research agenda is made complex by the vast array of ICTs,
difficulties with measurement, data and regional differences:
• There is a vast number of ICT enabled products and services with the potential to
offer carbon abatement (our initial research assessed over 250).
• Defining and measuring ‘carbon abatement potential’ is highly complex, with
primary, secondary and rebound effects to consider.
• The potential impact of a given ICT enabled product or service - and its barriers to
realisation – will differ from country to country.
• Data is often either deficient or unreliable when scrutinising claims made
proponents of ICT enabled products or services or policy makers.
• There are 27 diverse member states within Europe, each with its unique contexts.
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape

6. There are 40+ sources of carbon emissions:
• These can be categorised into 9 ‘carbon arenas’ covering three core
perspectives:
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape
Perspective Carbon Arena
Energy Generation and Distribution The full generation and distribution cycle
Energy Consumption Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Transport
Non-Energy Emissions Direct industrial
Waste
Land use
Agriculture

7. Industrial
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
IndustrialProcesses
Powergeneration &
distribution
Agriculture
Automated Control
Systems
Carbon Calculator
Communication &
Collaboration Tools
Continuous
Monitoringand
ControlTools
Modellingand
Simulation Tools
SmartGrid
Infrastructure
Workflow and
PlanningTools
Communication Protocols
Databases
Information aggregator(s)
Pervasive broadband
Software modules:optimisation for
automated control ormodelling
Software modules:data
visualisation
Software modules:optimalroute
mapping
Userinterfaces: data
monitoring/analysis
Web applications
Wireless comm.s receiver(s) and
transmitter(s)
For example:
9x Emission Arenas 7+ types of ICT enabled product or service 10+ Key Enabling ICTs
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape
There are many pathways from ICT to Carbon Reduction:

8. Large, complex deployments of ICT embedded within
complex infrastructure.
Examples include
• ‘Smart grid’ to facilitate the incorporation of small scale
renewable energy sources and to support products that
optimise the use of energy in the home;
• cloud computing, to dematerialise the distribution and
access to software and reduce the energy consumption
of corporate servers.
Infrastructures
Volume of Implementations
(i.e., units of implementations in a market)
MagnitudeofImpact
(perimplementation)
low
high
high
Two fundamentally different categories of ICT require different
management action and different policy frameworks.
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape
Products/services that can be used by
businesses or consumers to impact a wide
variety of carbon producing activities.
Examples include:
• ‘Smart motors’ to decrease industrial energy
consumption and
• Sophisticated home heating controls that
allow and encourage consumers to decrease
domestic energy use.
‘Consumer’
Products/Services

9. • impact: is it upon single or multiple industry verticals? For example:
• is there a direct or indirect impact upon carbon emissions?
Multiple
Industries
Industry
Specific
Product /
Service
focus
Infrastructure
focus
Cloud
Computing
Smart Grid
Smart
Buildings
Management
Magnitude vs.
volume
Number of industry verticals
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape
Smart Items
ICT enabled products and services can be usefully and further
understood by the number of industry sectors they impact and if
this impact is direct.

10. • ICT enabled products and services can fail to deliver their potential
because of:
• ‘supply-side’ uncertainties
– will enabling technologies be developed enough to provide required
performance?
• ‘demand-side’ uncertainties
– will the products/services/infrastructures be adopted widely enough to
deliver the expected impact?
Enabling Effects of ICT: A Complex Landscape
Technology is not always the problem:

11. Towards a Standardised Toolkit
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We have developed a 5-step process to systematically analyse specific
products, services or infrastructures applied in specific countries.
1. Define Scope 2. Scenario
Analysis:
“Best Case”
5. Recommend
Actions
4. Scenario
Analysis:
“BaU”
3. Understand
Barriers
Describe
product, service
or infrastructure
•State boundaries of
product
(performance/
function – what it
does)
•State the
applications of the
product that are in
scope
•State scope of the
downstream impacts
that will be delivered
Build and apply
model to assess
carbon
abatement
impact
• Assess potential
impact assuming
‘full adoption’
Adapt the best
case scenario to
factor in barriers
• Technological gaps
• Adoption issues
Assess feasibility
of enabling
technologies
• Gaps
• Weaknesses
Assess barriers
to market
adoption
• Social
• Economic, and
• Political
Actions to
overcome
technological
barriers
• Policy
• Industry
Actions to
overcome
barriers to
adoption
• Policy
• Industry

12. Towards a Standardised Toolkit:
1. Define Scope
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Key questions:
• What is the particular product, service or infrastructure
to be explored?
• What underlying technologies are needed to enable
this to function?
• What functionality do we assume these technologies
will provide?
• What are the rough costs and benefits likely to be for
users?
(Note that we include technologies which are expected
to be realised at some point in the future).
Describe
product,
service or
infrastructure
•State boundaries of
product
(performance/
function – what it
does)
•State the
applications of the
product that are in
scope
•State scope of the
downstream impacts
that will be delivered

13. 13
Key questions:
• How is the product, service or infrastructure likely
to impact carbon emissions?
• Assuming high market adoption and full technical
feasibility, what is the potential carbon abatement
impact?
• How reliable are the assumptions and data upon
which the estimates are based?
(Note: All methods assumptions and data sources
will be clearly shown, to allow rapid improvement
of estimates as new data becomes available.)
Towards a Standardised Toolkit
2. Scenario Analysis – “Best Case”
Build and
apply model
to assess
carbon
abatement
impact
• Assess
potential
impact

14. 14
Key questions:
• What is likelihood that the product, service or
infrastructure will be technically realised in the given
country?
• What are the current gaps and weaknesses in the
underlying technology?
• What is the likelihood that high market adoption will be
achieved?
• What are the key social, economic and political barriers
to market adoption?
Towards a Standardised Toolkit
3. Understand Barriers
Assess
feasibility of
enabling
technologies
• Gaps
• Weaknesses
Assess
barriers to
market
adoption
• Social
• Economic, and
• Political

15. 15
Key questions:
• Given the current technical gaps and market
barriers, what is the likely impact on carbon
emissions that this product, service or infrastructure
will have in the given country?
• How does this estimate differ from the best case
scenario described above?
Towards a Standardised Toolkit
4. Scenario Analyses – “Business as Usual”
Adapt the best
case scenario
to factor in
barriers
• Technological
gaps
• Adoption
issues

16. 16
Key questions:
• What actions can industry or government take to help
overcome the technological gaps identified above?
• What actions can industry or government take to help
overcome the market adoption barriers identified
above?
• Are industrial actions likely to be taken by individual
firms or industry-wide consortia?
• Are government actions likely to be taken at a
national or EU-wide level?
Towards a Standardised Toolkit
5. Make Recommendations
Actions to
overcome
technological
barriers
• Policy
• Industry
Actions to
overcome
barriers to
adoption
• Policy
• Industry

17. 17
As we refine our 5-step process into a toolkit, by systematically analysing a
number of specific products, services and infrastructures within selected
European countries, we will develop and publish a series of independent case
studies.
The toolkit will also be made available to members of the research coalition to
help scrutinise and refine it.
For example, we have been commissioned build case studies on the
carbon abatement potential of cloud computing within four countries and
how can we overcome the barriers to its full adoption.
Developing Independent Case Studies

18. The five step process will be applied to any given product, service
or infrastructure in an iterative feedback process with members of
the project coalition.
• There are three coalition membership levels:
• Bronze
• Silver
• Gold
Use finding to
sharpen
strategy and
shape policy
to enable
carbon
abetment
Research 1 x
technology
in four EU
countries
Present initial
findings
(inc. gaps in
data and
assumptions)
Assimilate
feedback /
conduct
further
research
Refine &
Disseminate
Enact process
for further
refinement
Research Process

19. Use finding to
sharpen
strategy and
shape policy
to enable
carbon
abetment
Research 1 x
technology
in four EU
countries
Present initial
findings
(inc. gaps in
data and
assumptions)
Assimilate
feedback /
conduct
further
research
Refine &
Disseminate
Enact process
for further
refinement
Feedback, support, critical
analysis from Industry, NGOs,
and Academia
Industry / NGOs /
Academia support
dissemination
As a Bronze Member of the coalition, you will benefit from:
• Early access to our research, including a toolkit and case studies;
• The opportunity to contribute to and influence a critical European project;
• A formal affiliation with an increasingly powerful coalition in the European
Low Carbon sector.
Bronze members are asked for a small in kind commitment to offer feedback on
our findings and support with their dissemination
The Coalition – Bronze Membership

20. In addition to Bronze benefits, Silver Membership will offer:
• The ability to commission research into specific technologies in specific
contexts, relevant to you and your organisation:
• For leaders of NPD/Innovation, this offers another approach to prioritising product, feature
and service development efforts to exploit specific opportunities presented by market and
technology gaps;
• For CSR leaders, this offers ways to measure and demonstrate your own contribution to the
development of a low-carbon economy in Europe;
• For Executives, this creates a language to engage with like-minded organisations from a
variety of sectors, to create more market visibility for specific technologies with clearer
recommendations when lobbying.
Silver members’ commissioning fees vary by the scope of the research tasks.
Use finding to
sharpen
strategy and
shape policy
to enable
carbon
abetment
Research 1 x
technology
in four EU
countries
Present initial
findings
(inc. gaps in
data and
assumptions)
Assimilate
feedback /
conduct
further
research
Refine &
Disseminate
Enact process
for further
refinement
Industry /
NGOs
commission
study of
specific
enabling
technologies
Feedback, support, critical
analysis from Industry, NGOs,
and Academia
Industry / NGOs /
Academia support
dissemination
The Coalition – Silver Membership

21. Industry / NGOs / Academia / Policy Makers guide scope, provide
direction and scrutinise the outcomes of study
Gold Membership offers all Silver and Bronze benefits, as well as:
• A leadership role in the coalition, allowing you to help steer and influence the
overall direction of the entire project and its outcomes.
• The opportunity to participate in the core group that presents findings and
recommendations to government and industry bodies.
Gold members commit additional in-kind support, on top of commissioning fees.
The Coalition – Gold Membership
Use finding to
sharpen
strategy and
shape policy
to enable
carbon
abetment
Research 1 x
technology
in four EU
countries
Present initial
findings
(inc. gaps in
data and
assumptions)
Assimilate
feedback /
conduct
further
research
Refine &
Disseminate
Enact process
for further
refinement
Industry /
NGOs
commission
study of
specific
enabling
technologies
Feedback, support, critical
analysis from Industry, NGOs,
and Academia
Industry / NGOs /
Academia support
dissemination

22. For More Information
If you would like more information on the project and
coalition membership, or if you want to get involved, please
contact:
Dr Peter Thomond
The Think Play Do Group at Imperial College, London
peter.thomond@thinkplaydo.com
+44 7747 394 671
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23. Collaborative Venture Leaders