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CRFB.org
A Big Investment to Build Back Better
$6.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$2.3 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
Sanders Target Budget Target Biden Compromise Target
(High End)
Manchin Target
Note: Figures reflect ten-year expenditure totals
Source: Media reports
Trillions
CRFB.org
Tax Credits
$825
Education &
Childcare
$586
Climate, Infrastructure,
Housing
$1,218
ACA &
Medicaid
$463
Medicare &
Long-Term
Care
$600
Paid
Leave
$450
Tax Rates
$960
Tax
Gap
$150
Health Care
$708
Other Revenue
$1,156
Other
Spending
and Tax
Breaks
$506
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000
Offsets
Costs
The House Bill Is Over-Budget and Under-Financed
Cost Target
$3.5 trillion
Source: Donald Schneider (CBO has not released a score of the full House reconciliation bill)
$4.6 trillion
$3.0 trillion
CRFB.org
The House Bill Is Over-Budget and Under-Financed
Spending & Tax Cuts Ten-Year Estimate (billions)
Health Care
Extend ARP Premium Credit $163*
Medicaid Expansion & Related $300*
Medicare Expansion $300
Medicaid HCBS $200*
HI Affordability Fund $100
Supporting Families
Child Tax Credit $556
Childcare & Pre-K $465
Paid Leave $450*
EITC $135
CDCTC & Caregivers $134
Retirement & Saving $47
Child Nutrition $35
Climate & Environment
Tax Credits $273
E&C (Air/Water/Energy) $194
CEPP $150
Education/Jobs/Other
Housing & Development $374
Infrastructure Related $145
Higher Education $121
Immigration $108
School Infrastructure $82
Workforce Development $80
Agriculture & Resilience $66
Other $170
TOTAL $4,647
Rough Estimate of House Bill from Donald Schneider (no CBO score):
CRFB.org
Percent of GDP
108%
106%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
What Would It Mean for The Debt?
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports
CRFB.org
Percent of GDP
114%
108%
106%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
What Would It Mean for The Debt?
* Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing Allowed by Senate
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports
CRFB.org
# Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing and $1.75 Trillion of Extensions
* Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing Allowed by Senate
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports
Percent of GDP
119%
114%
108%
106%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
What Would It Mean for The Debt?
CRFB.org
Percent of GDP
129%
125%
119%
106%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
130%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
And Debt Could Reach 129% of GDP
Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports.
*Includes Build Back Better with Extensions
^Includes extensions of expiring and sunsetting provisions in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill
CRFB.org
Fitting $5 Trillion of Policies In a $1.5-$2.3 Trillion Plan
1. Prioritize between policies – do a few things well
2. Prioritize within policies – do what matters most
3. Minimize cost for maximal return – means-test, target, find
efficiencies, scale, consolidate, and reform
4. Avoid sunsets and other gimmicks – sunsets add chaos, put
programs at risk, and hide true cost
5. Pay for new priorities – offset spending with revenue and
health savings; don’t add a dollar to the debt
6. Mind the politics – do what can pass
9
CRFB.org
Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less
Source: Donald Schneider (CBO has not released a score of the full House reconciliation bill),
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Tax Credits
$825
Education &
Childcare
$586
Climate, Infrastructure, Housing
$1,218
ACA &
Medicaid
$463
Medicare &
Long-Term Care
$600
Paid Leave
$450
Tax Rates
$960
Tax
Gap
$150
Health Care
$708
Other Revenue
$1,156
Other Spending
and Tax Breaks
$506
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000
Offsets
Costs
Offsets
Costs
Offsets
Costs
$1.5 Trillion Package
$2.3 Trillion Package
House Package
$4.6 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.3 trillion
$2.3 trillion
CRFB.org
Tax Credits
$950
Tax Credits
$500
Education &
Childcare
$300
Education &
Childcare
$300
Climate,
Infrastructure,
Housing
$400
Climate,
Infrastructure,
Housing
$400
ACA &
Medicaid
$300
ACA &
Medicaid
$300
Medicare &
Long-Term
Care
$200
Paid
Leave
$150
Tax Rates
$700
Tax Rates
$700
Tax Gap
$350
Tax Gap
$350
Health Care
$500
Health Care
$300
Payroll
Tax
$150
Other Revenue
$600
Other
Revenue
$150
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Offsets
Costs
Offsets
Costs
Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less
Billions $1.5 Trillion Package
$2.3 Trillion Package
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
$1.5 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.3 trillion
$2.3 trillion
CRFB.org
Policy $1.5 Trillion Package $2.3 Trillion Package
Extend expanded tax credits $500 billion $950 billion
Enact climate, infrastructure, and housing policies $400 billion $400 billion
Increase health-care-related spending $300 billion $500 billion
Fund pre-K, community college, and child care $300 billion $300 billion
Provide paid family leave $0 $150 billion
Total, Gross Costs $1.5 trillion $2.3 trillion
Raise individual, corporate, and capital gains tax rates -$700 billion -$700 billion
Improve tax compliance -$350 billion -$350 billion
Reduce health care costs -$300 billion -$500 billion
Reform international corporate taxation $0 -$200 billion
Establish employer paid leave payroll tax $0 -$150 billion
Other revenue increases -$150 billion -$400 billion
Total, Offsets -$1.5 trillion -$2.3 trillion
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less
CRFB.org
Policy Cost/Savings (-)
Support for Families and Households $1.1 trillion
Extend expanded CTC, EITC, and CDCTC with reforms and consolidations $500 billion
Expand and reform ACA spending, including ARP subsidies and Medicaid gap $300 billion
Fund universal, affordable pre-K $140 billion
Provide means-tested, tuition-free community college $100 billion
Double Child Care and Development Block Grants $60 billion
Address Climate Change and Infrastructure $400 billion
Expand climate-related tax breaks $200 billion
Increase climate-related spending (R&D, procurement, etc.) $100 billion
Fund housing and infrastructure spending and tax breaks $100 billion
Total, Spending, Tax Breaks, and Investments $1.5 trillion
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
The $1.5 Trillion Illustrative Package
CRFB.org
Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC
Child Tax Credit
Child Tax Credit
Child Tax Credit
Dependent Care Credit
Dependent Care Credit
Dependent Care Credit
EITC
EITC
EITC
$789 billion
$658 billion
$500 billion
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
House Biden CRFB
Billions
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
CRFB.org
Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC
The details:
• Provide a $150 per child refundable monthly benefit, increased to $200 per month for
children under age six (for a total of $1,800/$2,400).
• Provide an additional $1,200 refundable CTC, phased in with earnings as in current law.
• Means test the combined credits during tax filing, with single filers making over $50,000 and
married filers making over $100,000 seeing the initial $1,000 (or $1,600 for kids under six)
phased out and the rest phased out over $200,000 for single/$400,000 for married filers.
• Provide a fully refundable CDCTC of 50 percent of expenses for those making $40,000 or
less, phased down to 20 percent above $100,000 to 0 percent between $400,000 and
$440,000. Maximum credit of $4,000 for one dependent and $8,000 for two or more.
• Make a young child eligible for either the CDCTC or the $50 per month CTC supplement.
• Extend EITC expansion similar to the ARP.
• Enact other changes as necessary to address interactions, target benefits, and contain costs.
CRFB.org
* First figure is when credit starts to phase down (CTC from $3,000 to $2,000; CDCTC from 50% to 20%),
second figure is when credit starts to phase out
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Current Law (pre-ARP) Biden Proposal Illustrative Plan
CTC
Maximum per child CTC $2,000 $3,000 $3,000
Amount paid monthly $0 $125 $150
Maximum refundable CTC $1,400 $3,000 $3,000
Credit w/ no 15% phase-in $0 $3,000 $1,800
Phasedown thresholds* $400k $150k & $400k $100k & $400k
Additional CTC for 0-5-year-olds $0 $600 $600 or CDCTC
CDCTC
Maximum Credit (% of costs) 35% up to $1,050 50% up to $4,000 50% up to $4,000
Phase down thresholds* $15k & n/a $125k & $400k $40k & $400k
Refundable or non-refundable Non-refundable Refundable Refundable
Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC
CRFB.org
Expand and Secure the Affordable Care Act
Our reforms cost ~$300 billion as opposed to $500 billion.
The details:
• Restore cost-sharing reduction payments discontinued by the Trump Administration.
• Establish a state-based reinsurance and invisible risk pool fund.
• Extend subsidy increases with a more progressive formula above 300 percent of poverty.
• Establish federal Medicaid program for those below 138 percent of poverty in gap states.
• Provide those below poverty exchange subsidies until federal Medicaid is established.
CRFB.org
Expand and Secure the Affordable Care Act
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Kaiser Family Foundation data
Percent of Federal Poverty Line (Income for a Family of 4)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0%
($0)
100%
($28,000)
200%
($56,000)
300%
($84,000)
400%
($112,000)
500%
($140,000)
600%
($168,000)
Current Law
Build Back Better Act
CRFB Alternative
ACA Premium Subsidy Cap, 2023 (Percent of Income)
CRFB.org
Pre-K, Child Care, and Community College
Fund Universal, Affordable Pre-K ($140 billion)
The President’s budget proposes grants to states to support universal pre-K for all three- and four-year-olds. While the
White House estimates this would cost $140 billion over a decade, meeting that budget could require means testing or
targeting in some states.
Provide Means-Tested, Tuition-Free Community College ($100 billion)
The President’s budget proposes to fund up to two years of universal tuition-free community college at a cost of roughly
$110 billion. Our illustrative package includes tuition-free community college for those in households earning less than
$100,000 per year, phased out gradually above that. To the extent total costs fall below $100 billion, remaining funds
could be used to support college completion grants or to provide other higher education support.
Double Child Care and Development Block Grants ($60 billion)
In addition to substantially expanding the CDCTC, the President’s budget proposes a new set of subsidies designed to limit
a family’s child care costs to 7 percent of income. The White House estimates its proposal would cost $225 billion, but
actual costs could be higher.
To support state and local efforts to provide for affordable child care, our illustrative alternative would appropriate $60
billion over ten years toward Child Care and Development Block Grants. This would roughly double the size of these
grants, assuming appropriations continue as projected. This grant funding would be in addition to the expanded CDCTC.
CRFB.org
Targeted Pre-K and Care Do More for Economic Growth
Year
Targeted
Childcare
Universal
Childcare Targeted Pre-K
Universal
Pre-K
Targeted Pre-K
and Childcare
Universal Pre-K
and Childcare
2031 +0.3 0.2 +0.1 0 +0.2 +0.1
2041 +0.2 0 0 0 +0.2 0
2051 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 0 +0.1 -0.2
GDP impact of different proposals
Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model
CRFB.org
$400B More, $1T Total, for Climate and Infrastructure
Policy Cost
Renewable energy and efficiency tax credits (House GREEN Act) $135 billion
Electric car, renewable fuels, and energy efficiency credits (Biden) $65 billion
Climate-related spending (R&D, procurement, green infra bank, etc.) $100 billion
Infrastructure & affordable housing spending and tax breaks $100 billion
Subtotal, Climate and Infrastructure Spending in Illustrative Plan $400 billion
Climate and Infrastructure spending in Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan $572 billion
Total Climate and Infrastructure Policies in “Build Back Better” $972 billion
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office
CRFB.org
Policy Cost/Savings (-)
Support Families and Households $1.9 trillion
Make permanent expanded CTC, EITC, and CDCTC with reforms and consolidations
$950 billion
(+$450 billion)
Expand and reform ACA spending, including ARP subsidies $300 billion
Fund affordable pre-K, community college, and child care block grants $300 billion
Provide paid family leave benefits using Social Security benefit formula $150 billion
Support Medicaid home- and community-based services $150 billion
Establish a hearing and vision Medicare benefit with a 25 percent premium $50 billion
Address Climate Change and Infrastructure $400 billion
Expand climate-related tax breaks and spending $300 billion
Fund housing and infrastructure spending and tax breaks $100 billion
Total, Spending, Tax Breaks, and Investments $2.3 trillion
Note: Changes from $1.5 trillion illustrative package in blue
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Additional Spending in the $2.3 Trillion Package
CRFB.org
Monthly paid family leave benefits per person, by income
Source: Social Security Actuary, House Ways and Means Committee, bill text
Family Leave w/ SS Formula Costs ~1/4 of House Paid Leave
$5,205
$4,000
$3,383
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000
House Bill
FAMILY Act
Social Security Formula
CRFB.org
Note: Figures reflect annual costs
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on data from Brookings Institution and the
Congressional Budget Office
Billions
Dental: $60
Hearing: $16
Vision: $5
$81 billion
$63 billion
$48 billion
$29 billion
$8 billion
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Full Cost Apply Premium Exclude from MA
Benchmark
Apply Premium and
Exclude from MA
Benchmark
Vision and Hearing
Only - Apply Premium
and Exclude from MA
Vision and Hearing at 1/10 the Cost of Full Expansion
CRFB.org
Most Seniors Already Have Access to Dental
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
CRFB.org
There’s a Growing Need for Home- and Community-Based Services –
$150 Billion Would Go A Long Way
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Percentage of Total Medicaid LTSS Spending on Institutional LTSS and HCBS
Note: LTSS is long-term services and supports. HCBS is home- and community-based services
Source: Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission
CRFB.org
Policy Cost/Savings (-)
Raise Tax Rates -$700 billion
Raise corporate tax rate to 25 percent -$410 billion
Raise top individual income tax rate to 39.6 percent above $400,000 of income -$170 billion
Raise capital gains tax rate to 24.2 percent and close carried interest loophole -$120 billion
Improve Tax Compliance -$350 billion
Fund IRS tax enforcement -$120 billion
Expand bank information reporting -$200 billion
Improve tax rules (see Ways & Means package) -$30 billion
Enact Other Tax Increases -$150 billion
Increase & reform estate tax OR phase in carryover basis of capital gains at death -$80 billion
Restore Superfund taxes on oil -$20 billion
Extend current limit on business losses -$50 billion
Reduce Prescription Drug Costs -$300 billion
Permanently repeal Trump Administration drug rebate rule -$150 billion
Reduce prescription drug prices -$150 billion
Total, Offsets -$1.5 trillion
Net Fiscal Impact of $1.5 Trillion Package $0
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Offsets in the $1.5 Trillion Package
CRFB.org
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Penn Wharton Budget Model
Billions
Closing the Tax Gap Raises Revenue Without Raising Taxes
$41 billion
$60 billion
$63 billion
$87 billion
$120 billion
$400 billion
$711 billion
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$20b IRS
Funding
(CBO)
Trump Plan
(CBO)
$40b IRS
Funding
(CBO)
Trump Plan
(OMB)
$80b of IRS
Funding
(CBO)
Biden Plan
(CBO)
Biden Plan
(PWBM)
Biden Plan
(OMB)
IRS Funding
Information Reporting and Other Reforms
CRFB.org
Information Reporting Massively Improves Compliance
Source: Internal Revenue Service
Billions
$9 $12
$36
$109
1%
5%
17%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
$0
$24
$48
$72
$96
$120
Income Subject to
Substantial Information
Reporting and
Withholding
Income Subject to
Substantial Information
Reporting
Income Subject to Some
Information Reporting
Income Subject to Little or
No Information Reporting
Underreporting Tax Gap
Net Misreporting Percentage
Net Misreporting Percentage
CRFB.org
CRFB.org
Reforming Stepped-Up Basis Would Generate Substantial Revenue
Note: Costs are in billions of nominal dollars and are over the applicable budget window when the
policy was scored. For reference, replacing stepped-up basis with carryover basis and taxing capital
gains at death is scored over the 2021-2030 budget window. The Obama proposal is scored over the
2016-2026 window and the Biden proposal is scored over the 2022-2031 window.
Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation, U.S. Department of Treasury.
$110
$204
$249
$322
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Replace Stepped-Up Basis
With Carryover Basis (CBO)
Tax Capital Gains at Death
(PWBM)
Obama: Tax Capital Gains at
Death, 24.2% Rate (JCT)
Biden: Tax Capital Gains at
Death for Millionaires,
39.6% Rate (Treasury)
Billions of Nominal Dollars
CRFB.org
Share of Tax Benefit from Stepped-Up Basis
Source: Congressional Budget Office
60th to 80th Percentile
17%
90th to 99th Percentile
34%
Bottom 60 Percent
18%
80th to 90th
Percentile
10%
Top 1 Percentile
21%
While Improving Tax Efficiency, Equity, and Fairness
CRFB.org
Policy Cost/Savings (-)
Raise Tax Rates -$700 billion
Raise corporate tax rate to 25 percent -$410 billion
Raise top individual income tax rate to 39.6 percent above $400,000 of income -$170 billion
Raise capital gains tax rate to 24.2 percent and close carried interest loophole -$120 billion
Improve Tax Compliance -$350 billion
Fund IRS tax enforcement -$120 billion
Improve bank information reporting and improve tax rules (see Ways and Means package) -$230 billion
Other Taxes -$750 billion
Close gap in the 3.8 percent NIIT/SECA tax on high-income households -$250 billion
Reform international tax rules -$200 billion
Establish 0.2 percent employer payroll tax to fund paid family leave -$150 billion
Increase & reform estate tax OR phase in carryover basis of capital gains at death -$80 billion
Restore Superfund taxes on oil -$20 billion
Extend current limit on business losses -$50 billion
Reduce Health Care Costs -$500 billion
Reduce prescription drug costs -$300 billion
Reduce health care costs (Medicare providers, Medicare Advantage, drugs) -$200 billion
Total, Offsets -$2.3 trillion
Net Fiscal Impact of $2.3 Trillion Package $0
Note: Changes from $1.5 trillion illustrative package in blue
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
More Offsets in the $2.3 Trillion Illustrative Package
CRFB.org
Policy Ten-Year Savings
Reduce Prescription Drug Costs
Require drug price negotiations with international cap Up to $500 billion
Enact Part D formula re-design $5 to $75 billion
Cap drug price growth at inflation $35 to $80 billion
Transition Medicare Part B payments to a system that fosters competition among clinically comparable drugs $120 billion
Expand Medicare and Medicaid Drug Rebates up to $150 billion
Prevent evergreening delays of generic drug competition through FDA exclusivity rules $10 billion
Reduce or Reform Medicare Provider Payments
Equalize Medicare payments regardless of site-of-care $150 to $280 billion
Reduce and reform payments for uncompensated care up to $90 billion
Reduce and reform Medicare post-acute care payments $50 to $100 billion
Reduce and reform payments for Graduate Medical Education $35 to $90 billion
Reduce or repeal Medicare payments for bad debts $25 to $80 billion
Expand use of bundled payments $10 to $50 billion
Health Savings Options
Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Health Savers Initiative, and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
CRFB.org
Policy Ten-Year Savings
Reduce or Reform Medicare Advantage (MA) Payments
Adjust Medicare Advantage payments for accurately for coding intensity $45 to $355 billion
Set Medicare Advantage payments using competitive bidding $55 to $230 billion
Modify risk adjustment payments in Medicare Advantage $50 to $80 billion
Reduce excessive quality bonus payments to Medicare Advantage plans $30 to $165 billion
Enact Affordable Care Act (ACA) Savings
Establish a public option for the health exchanges ~$150 billion
Restore cost-sharing reductions funding ~$100 billion
Recapture excessive premium subsidies $50 billion
Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Health Savers Initiative, and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Health Savings Options
CRFB.org
We Don’t Hide the True Costs with Numerous Expirations*
* In our $1.5 trillion bill, we only extend the CTC expansion until other parts of the TCJA expire in 2025.
Policymakers must fully commit to offset any further extension
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
“True Cost” of
$1.5T Package
(with extensions)
“True Cost” of
$2.3T Package
(with extensions)
Sunset After 2 Years (Jan 1, 2024) $9.3 trillion $14.3 trillion
Sunset After 4 Years (Jan 1, 2026) $4.0 trillion $6.2 trillion
Sunset After 6 Years (Jan 1, 2028) $3.1 trillion $3.8 trillion
Sunset After 8 Years (Jan 1, 2030) $1.8 trillion $2.8 trillion
Illustrative Cost of reconciliation in extreme case that ALL provisions expired and
were later extended without offsets
CRFB.org
* No Cost
Note: Numbers are rounded to one decimal place
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Moody’s, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Tax Foundation, and
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
0.6%
0.1%
0.4%
-0.6%
-0.1%
-2.5%
2.0%
3.5%
-3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (CBO)
$500 Billion of Infrastructure* (CBO)
Universal Pre-K & Child Care* (PWBM)
Reconciliation Tax Policies (Tax Foundation)
$1.5 Trillion Reconciliation (PWBM)
$3.5 Trillion Reconciliation (PWBM)
$3.5 Trillion Reconciliation (Moody's)
Increase to Generate $600 Billion Dynamic Effect
2031 GDP Change from Different Policies
We Don’t Rely on Rosy Dynamic Scoring
CRFB.org
Source: Tax Policy Center
Average 2022 Benefit from Repeal of SALT Cap, dollars
$0 $2 $15 $85 $360
$2,480
$35,660
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
Bottom
Quintile
Second
Quintile
Middle
Quintile
Fourth
Quintile
80th-90th
Percentile
90th-99th
Percentile
Top 1%
We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
CRFB.org
$85
$110
$23
$17
$11
$70
$50
$33
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
SALT Cap
Repeal
Extended
Expanded
Child Tax
Credit
Paid Family
Leave
Universal
Pre-K
Free
Community
College
Raise
Corporate
Rate to 28%
Drug Price
Negotiations
Increase Top
Individual
Rate to 39.6%
Billions Per Year
Note: Annual costs of proposed policies use averages of the total cost over the time relevant time period
Source: Tax Policy Center, Office of Management and Budget, Senate Finance Committee, Committee for
a Responsible Federal Budget
We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
CRFB.org
Source: Tax Policy Center, Tax Foundation, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Percent of Overall Benefit of Different Tax Reform Proposals that Would Accrue to the Bottom Three Income Quintiles
0.8% 1.6% 2.6%
12.3%
34.7%
63.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Repeal SALT
Cap
Repeal SALT
Cap Below $1m
Repeal SALT
Cap Below
$500k
Repeal SALT
Cap Below
$200k
Tax Cuts and
Jobs Act
CASH Act
($2k rebates)
We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
CRFB.org
Tax Credits
$950
Tax Credits
$500
Education &
Childcare
$300
Education &
Childcare
$300
Climate,
Infrastructure,
Housing
$400
Climate,
Infrastructure,
Housing
$400
ACA &
Medicaid
$300
ACA &
Medicaid
$300
Medicare &
Long-Term
Care
$200
Paid
Leave
$150
Tax Rates
$700
Tax Rates
$700
Tax Gap
$350
Tax Gap
$350
Health Care
$500
Health Care
$300
Payroll
Tax
$150
Other Revenue
$600
Other
Revenue
$150
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
Offsets
Costs
Offsets
Costs
Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less
Billions $1.5 Trillion Package
$2.3 Trillion Package
Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
$1.5 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.3 trillion
$2.3 trillion

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CRFB - Build Back Better for Less - Oct. 15 2021

  • 2. CRFB.org A Big Investment to Build Back Better $6.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $2.3 trillion $1.5 trillion $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 Sanders Target Budget Target Biden Compromise Target (High End) Manchin Target Note: Figures reflect ten-year expenditure totals Source: Media reports Trillions
  • 3. CRFB.org Tax Credits $825 Education & Childcare $586 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $1,218 ACA & Medicaid $463 Medicare & Long-Term Care $600 Paid Leave $450 Tax Rates $960 Tax Gap $150 Health Care $708 Other Revenue $1,156 Other Spending and Tax Breaks $506 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 Offsets Costs The House Bill Is Over-Budget and Under-Financed Cost Target $3.5 trillion Source: Donald Schneider (CBO has not released a score of the full House reconciliation bill) $4.6 trillion $3.0 trillion
  • 4. CRFB.org The House Bill Is Over-Budget and Under-Financed Spending & Tax Cuts Ten-Year Estimate (billions) Health Care Extend ARP Premium Credit $163* Medicaid Expansion & Related $300* Medicare Expansion $300 Medicaid HCBS $200* HI Affordability Fund $100 Supporting Families Child Tax Credit $556 Childcare & Pre-K $465 Paid Leave $450* EITC $135 CDCTC & Caregivers $134 Retirement & Saving $47 Child Nutrition $35 Climate & Environment Tax Credits $273 E&C (Air/Water/Energy) $194 CEPP $150 Education/Jobs/Other Housing & Development $374 Infrastructure Related $145 Higher Education $121 Immigration $108 School Infrastructure $82 Workforce Development $80 Agriculture & Resilience $66 Other $170 TOTAL $4,647 Rough Estimate of House Bill from Donald Schneider (no CBO score):
  • 5. CRFB.org Percent of GDP 108% 106% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 What Would It Mean for The Debt? Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports
  • 6. CRFB.org Percent of GDP 114% 108% 106% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 What Would It Mean for The Debt? * Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing Allowed by Senate Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports
  • 7. CRFB.org # Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing and $1.75 Trillion of Extensions * Assumes full $1.75 Trillion of Borrowing Allowed by Senate Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports Percent of GDP 119% 114% 108% 106% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 What Would It Mean for The Debt?
  • 8. CRFB.org Percent of GDP 129% 125% 119% 106% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 And Debt Could Reach 129% of GDP Source: CRFB calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data and media reports. *Includes Build Back Better with Extensions ^Includes extensions of expiring and sunsetting provisions in the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill
  • 9. CRFB.org Fitting $5 Trillion of Policies In a $1.5-$2.3 Trillion Plan 1. Prioritize between policies – do a few things well 2. Prioritize within policies – do what matters most 3. Minimize cost for maximal return – means-test, target, find efficiencies, scale, consolidate, and reform 4. Avoid sunsets and other gimmicks – sunsets add chaos, put programs at risk, and hide true cost 5. Pay for new priorities – offset spending with revenue and health savings; don’t add a dollar to the debt 6. Mind the politics – do what can pass 9
  • 10. CRFB.org Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less Source: Donald Schneider (CBO has not released a score of the full House reconciliation bill), Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Tax Credits $825 Education & Childcare $586 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $1,218 ACA & Medicaid $463 Medicare & Long-Term Care $600 Paid Leave $450 Tax Rates $960 Tax Gap $150 Health Care $708 Other Revenue $1,156 Other Spending and Tax Breaks $506 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 Offsets Costs Offsets Costs Offsets Costs $1.5 Trillion Package $2.3 Trillion Package House Package $4.6 trillion $3.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.3 trillion $2.3 trillion
  • 11. CRFB.org Tax Credits $950 Tax Credits $500 Education & Childcare $300 Education & Childcare $300 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $400 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $400 ACA & Medicaid $300 ACA & Medicaid $300 Medicare & Long-Term Care $200 Paid Leave $150 Tax Rates $700 Tax Rates $700 Tax Gap $350 Tax Gap $350 Health Care $500 Health Care $300 Payroll Tax $150 Other Revenue $600 Other Revenue $150 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Offsets Costs Offsets Costs Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less Billions $1.5 Trillion Package $2.3 Trillion Package Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget $1.5 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.3 trillion $2.3 trillion
  • 12. CRFB.org Policy $1.5 Trillion Package $2.3 Trillion Package Extend expanded tax credits $500 billion $950 billion Enact climate, infrastructure, and housing policies $400 billion $400 billion Increase health-care-related spending $300 billion $500 billion Fund pre-K, community college, and child care $300 billion $300 billion Provide paid family leave $0 $150 billion Total, Gross Costs $1.5 trillion $2.3 trillion Raise individual, corporate, and capital gains tax rates -$700 billion -$700 billion Improve tax compliance -$350 billion -$350 billion Reduce health care costs -$300 billion -$500 billion Reform international corporate taxation $0 -$200 billion Establish employer paid leave payroll tax $0 -$150 billion Other revenue increases -$150 billion -$400 billion Total, Offsets -$1.5 trillion -$2.3 trillion Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less
  • 13. CRFB.org Policy Cost/Savings (-) Support for Families and Households $1.1 trillion Extend expanded CTC, EITC, and CDCTC with reforms and consolidations $500 billion Expand and reform ACA spending, including ARP subsidies and Medicaid gap $300 billion Fund universal, affordable pre-K $140 billion Provide means-tested, tuition-free community college $100 billion Double Child Care and Development Block Grants $60 billion Address Climate Change and Infrastructure $400 billion Expand climate-related tax breaks $200 billion Increase climate-related spending (R&D, procurement, etc.) $100 billion Fund housing and infrastructure spending and tax breaks $100 billion Total, Spending, Tax Breaks, and Investments $1.5 trillion Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget The $1.5 Trillion Illustrative Package
  • 14. CRFB.org Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC Child Tax Credit Child Tax Credit Child Tax Credit Dependent Care Credit Dependent Care Credit Dependent Care Credit EITC EITC EITC $789 billion $658 billion $500 billion $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 House Biden CRFB Billions Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
  • 15. CRFB.org Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC The details: • Provide a $150 per child refundable monthly benefit, increased to $200 per month for children under age six (for a total of $1,800/$2,400). • Provide an additional $1,200 refundable CTC, phased in with earnings as in current law. • Means test the combined credits during tax filing, with single filers making over $50,000 and married filers making over $100,000 seeing the initial $1,000 (or $1,600 for kids under six) phased out and the rest phased out over $200,000 for single/$400,000 for married filers. • Provide a fully refundable CDCTC of 50 percent of expenses for those making $40,000 or less, phased down to 20 percent above $100,000 to 0 percent between $400,000 and $440,000. Maximum credit of $4,000 for one dependent and $8,000 for two or more. • Make a young child eligible for either the CDCTC or the $50 per month CTC supplement. • Extend EITC expansion similar to the ARP. • Enact other changes as necessary to address interactions, target benefits, and contain costs.
  • 16. CRFB.org * First figure is when credit starts to phase down (CTC from $3,000 to $2,000; CDCTC from 50% to 20%), second figure is when credit starts to phase out Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Current Law (pre-ARP) Biden Proposal Illustrative Plan CTC Maximum per child CTC $2,000 $3,000 $3,000 Amount paid monthly $0 $125 $150 Maximum refundable CTC $1,400 $3,000 $3,000 Credit w/ no 15% phase-in $0 $3,000 $1,800 Phasedown thresholds* $400k $150k & $400k $100k & $400k Additional CTC for 0-5-year-olds $0 $600 $600 or CDCTC CDCTC Maximum Credit (% of costs) 35% up to $1,050 50% up to $4,000 50% up to $4,000 Phase down thresholds* $15k & n/a $125k & $400k $40k & $400k Refundable or non-refundable Non-refundable Refundable Refundable Expand and Reform CTC, EITC, and CDCTC
  • 17. CRFB.org Expand and Secure the Affordable Care Act Our reforms cost ~$300 billion as opposed to $500 billion. The details: • Restore cost-sharing reduction payments discontinued by the Trump Administration. • Establish a state-based reinsurance and invisible risk pool fund. • Extend subsidy increases with a more progressive formula above 300 percent of poverty. • Establish federal Medicaid program for those below 138 percent of poverty in gap states. • Provide those below poverty exchange subsidies until federal Medicaid is established.
  • 18. CRFB.org Expand and Secure the Affordable Care Act Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on Kaiser Family Foundation data Percent of Federal Poverty Line (Income for a Family of 4) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 0% ($0) 100% ($28,000) 200% ($56,000) 300% ($84,000) 400% ($112,000) 500% ($140,000) 600% ($168,000) Current Law Build Back Better Act CRFB Alternative ACA Premium Subsidy Cap, 2023 (Percent of Income)
  • 19. CRFB.org Pre-K, Child Care, and Community College Fund Universal, Affordable Pre-K ($140 billion) The President’s budget proposes grants to states to support universal pre-K for all three- and four-year-olds. While the White House estimates this would cost $140 billion over a decade, meeting that budget could require means testing or targeting in some states. Provide Means-Tested, Tuition-Free Community College ($100 billion) The President’s budget proposes to fund up to two years of universal tuition-free community college at a cost of roughly $110 billion. Our illustrative package includes tuition-free community college for those in households earning less than $100,000 per year, phased out gradually above that. To the extent total costs fall below $100 billion, remaining funds could be used to support college completion grants or to provide other higher education support. Double Child Care and Development Block Grants ($60 billion) In addition to substantially expanding the CDCTC, the President’s budget proposes a new set of subsidies designed to limit a family’s child care costs to 7 percent of income. The White House estimates its proposal would cost $225 billion, but actual costs could be higher. To support state and local efforts to provide for affordable child care, our illustrative alternative would appropriate $60 billion over ten years toward Child Care and Development Block Grants. This would roughly double the size of these grants, assuming appropriations continue as projected. This grant funding would be in addition to the expanded CDCTC.
  • 20. CRFB.org Targeted Pre-K and Care Do More for Economic Growth Year Targeted Childcare Universal Childcare Targeted Pre-K Universal Pre-K Targeted Pre-K and Childcare Universal Pre-K and Childcare 2031 +0.3 0.2 +0.1 0 +0.2 +0.1 2041 +0.2 0 0 0 +0.2 0 2051 +0.1 -0.2 +0.1 0 +0.1 -0.2 GDP impact of different proposals Source: Penn Wharton Budget Model
  • 21. CRFB.org $400B More, $1T Total, for Climate and Infrastructure Policy Cost Renewable energy and efficiency tax credits (House GREEN Act) $135 billion Electric car, renewable fuels, and energy efficiency credits (Biden) $65 billion Climate-related spending (R&D, procurement, green infra bank, etc.) $100 billion Infrastructure & affordable housing spending and tax breaks $100 billion Subtotal, Climate and Infrastructure Spending in Illustrative Plan $400 billion Climate and Infrastructure spending in Bipartisan Infrastructure Plan $572 billion Total Climate and Infrastructure Policies in “Build Back Better” $972 billion Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Congressional Budget Office
  • 22. CRFB.org Policy Cost/Savings (-) Support Families and Households $1.9 trillion Make permanent expanded CTC, EITC, and CDCTC with reforms and consolidations $950 billion (+$450 billion) Expand and reform ACA spending, including ARP subsidies $300 billion Fund affordable pre-K, community college, and child care block grants $300 billion Provide paid family leave benefits using Social Security benefit formula $150 billion Support Medicaid home- and community-based services $150 billion Establish a hearing and vision Medicare benefit with a 25 percent premium $50 billion Address Climate Change and Infrastructure $400 billion Expand climate-related tax breaks and spending $300 billion Fund housing and infrastructure spending and tax breaks $100 billion Total, Spending, Tax Breaks, and Investments $2.3 trillion Note: Changes from $1.5 trillion illustrative package in blue Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Additional Spending in the $2.3 Trillion Package
  • 23. CRFB.org Monthly paid family leave benefits per person, by income Source: Social Security Actuary, House Ways and Means Committee, bill text Family Leave w/ SS Formula Costs ~1/4 of House Paid Leave $5,205 $4,000 $3,383 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 House Bill FAMILY Act Social Security Formula
  • 24. CRFB.org Note: Figures reflect annual costs Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget based on data from Brookings Institution and the Congressional Budget Office Billions Dental: $60 Hearing: $16 Vision: $5 $81 billion $63 billion $48 billion $29 billion $8 billion $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 Full Cost Apply Premium Exclude from MA Benchmark Apply Premium and Exclude from MA Benchmark Vision and Hearing Only - Apply Premium and Exclude from MA Vision and Hearing at 1/10 the Cost of Full Expansion
  • 25. CRFB.org Most Seniors Already Have Access to Dental Source: Kaiser Family Foundation
  • 26. CRFB.org There’s a Growing Need for Home- and Community-Based Services – $150 Billion Would Go A Long Way 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Percentage of Total Medicaid LTSS Spending on Institutional LTSS and HCBS Note: LTSS is long-term services and supports. HCBS is home- and community-based services Source: Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission
  • 27. CRFB.org Policy Cost/Savings (-) Raise Tax Rates -$700 billion Raise corporate tax rate to 25 percent -$410 billion Raise top individual income tax rate to 39.6 percent above $400,000 of income -$170 billion Raise capital gains tax rate to 24.2 percent and close carried interest loophole -$120 billion Improve Tax Compliance -$350 billion Fund IRS tax enforcement -$120 billion Expand bank information reporting -$200 billion Improve tax rules (see Ways & Means package) -$30 billion Enact Other Tax Increases -$150 billion Increase & reform estate tax OR phase in carryover basis of capital gains at death -$80 billion Restore Superfund taxes on oil -$20 billion Extend current limit on business losses -$50 billion Reduce Prescription Drug Costs -$300 billion Permanently repeal Trump Administration drug rebate rule -$150 billion Reduce prescription drug prices -$150 billion Total, Offsets -$1.5 trillion Net Fiscal Impact of $1.5 Trillion Package $0 Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Offsets in the $1.5 Trillion Package
  • 28. CRFB.org Source: Congressional Budget Office, Office of Management and Budget, Penn Wharton Budget Model Billions Closing the Tax Gap Raises Revenue Without Raising Taxes $41 billion $60 billion $63 billion $87 billion $120 billion $400 billion $711 billion $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $20b IRS Funding (CBO) Trump Plan (CBO) $40b IRS Funding (CBO) Trump Plan (OMB) $80b of IRS Funding (CBO) Biden Plan (CBO) Biden Plan (PWBM) Biden Plan (OMB) IRS Funding Information Reporting and Other Reforms
  • 29. CRFB.org Information Reporting Massively Improves Compliance Source: Internal Revenue Service Billions $9 $12 $36 $109 1% 5% 17% 55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% $0 $24 $48 $72 $96 $120 Income Subject to Substantial Information Reporting and Withholding Income Subject to Substantial Information Reporting Income Subject to Some Information Reporting Income Subject to Little or No Information Reporting Underreporting Tax Gap Net Misreporting Percentage Net Misreporting Percentage
  • 31. CRFB.org Reforming Stepped-Up Basis Would Generate Substantial Revenue Note: Costs are in billions of nominal dollars and are over the applicable budget window when the policy was scored. For reference, replacing stepped-up basis with carryover basis and taxing capital gains at death is scored over the 2021-2030 budget window. The Obama proposal is scored over the 2016-2026 window and the Biden proposal is scored over the 2022-2031 window. Sources: Congressional Budget Office, Joint Committee on Taxation, U.S. Department of Treasury. $110 $204 $249 $322 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 Replace Stepped-Up Basis With Carryover Basis (CBO) Tax Capital Gains at Death (PWBM) Obama: Tax Capital Gains at Death, 24.2% Rate (JCT) Biden: Tax Capital Gains at Death for Millionaires, 39.6% Rate (Treasury) Billions of Nominal Dollars
  • 32. CRFB.org Share of Tax Benefit from Stepped-Up Basis Source: Congressional Budget Office 60th to 80th Percentile 17% 90th to 99th Percentile 34% Bottom 60 Percent 18% 80th to 90th Percentile 10% Top 1 Percentile 21% While Improving Tax Efficiency, Equity, and Fairness
  • 33. CRFB.org Policy Cost/Savings (-) Raise Tax Rates -$700 billion Raise corporate tax rate to 25 percent -$410 billion Raise top individual income tax rate to 39.6 percent above $400,000 of income -$170 billion Raise capital gains tax rate to 24.2 percent and close carried interest loophole -$120 billion Improve Tax Compliance -$350 billion Fund IRS tax enforcement -$120 billion Improve bank information reporting and improve tax rules (see Ways and Means package) -$230 billion Other Taxes -$750 billion Close gap in the 3.8 percent NIIT/SECA tax on high-income households -$250 billion Reform international tax rules -$200 billion Establish 0.2 percent employer payroll tax to fund paid family leave -$150 billion Increase & reform estate tax OR phase in carryover basis of capital gains at death -$80 billion Restore Superfund taxes on oil -$20 billion Extend current limit on business losses -$50 billion Reduce Health Care Costs -$500 billion Reduce prescription drug costs -$300 billion Reduce health care costs (Medicare providers, Medicare Advantage, drugs) -$200 billion Total, Offsets -$2.3 trillion Net Fiscal Impact of $2.3 Trillion Package $0 Note: Changes from $1.5 trillion illustrative package in blue Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget More Offsets in the $2.3 Trillion Illustrative Package
  • 34. CRFB.org Policy Ten-Year Savings Reduce Prescription Drug Costs Require drug price negotiations with international cap Up to $500 billion Enact Part D formula re-design $5 to $75 billion Cap drug price growth at inflation $35 to $80 billion Transition Medicare Part B payments to a system that fosters competition among clinically comparable drugs $120 billion Expand Medicare and Medicaid Drug Rebates up to $150 billion Prevent evergreening delays of generic drug competition through FDA exclusivity rules $10 billion Reduce or Reform Medicare Provider Payments Equalize Medicare payments regardless of site-of-care $150 to $280 billion Reduce and reform payments for uncompensated care up to $90 billion Reduce and reform Medicare post-acute care payments $50 to $100 billion Reduce and reform payments for Graduate Medical Education $35 to $90 billion Reduce or repeal Medicare payments for bad debts $25 to $80 billion Expand use of bundled payments $10 to $50 billion Health Savings Options Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion Source: Congressional Budget Office, Health Savers Initiative, and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
  • 35. CRFB.org Policy Ten-Year Savings Reduce or Reform Medicare Advantage (MA) Payments Adjust Medicare Advantage payments for accurately for coding intensity $45 to $355 billion Set Medicare Advantage payments using competitive bidding $55 to $230 billion Modify risk adjustment payments in Medicare Advantage $50 to $80 billion Reduce excessive quality bonus payments to Medicare Advantage plans $30 to $165 billion Enact Affordable Care Act (ACA) Savings Establish a public option for the health exchanges ~$150 billion Restore cost-sharing reductions funding ~$100 billion Recapture excessive premium subsidies $50 billion Note: All numbers rounded to the nearest $5 billion Source: Congressional Budget Office, Health Savers Initiative, and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Health Savings Options
  • 36. CRFB.org We Don’t Hide the True Costs with Numerous Expirations* * In our $1.5 trillion bill, we only extend the CTC expansion until other parts of the TCJA expire in 2025. Policymakers must fully commit to offset any further extension Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget “True Cost” of $1.5T Package (with extensions) “True Cost” of $2.3T Package (with extensions) Sunset After 2 Years (Jan 1, 2024) $9.3 trillion $14.3 trillion Sunset After 4 Years (Jan 1, 2026) $4.0 trillion $6.2 trillion Sunset After 6 Years (Jan 1, 2028) $3.1 trillion $3.8 trillion Sunset After 8 Years (Jan 1, 2030) $1.8 trillion $2.8 trillion Illustrative Cost of reconciliation in extreme case that ALL provisions expired and were later extended without offsets
  • 37. CRFB.org * No Cost Note: Numbers are rounded to one decimal place Source: Congressional Budget Office, Moody’s, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Tax Foundation, and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% -0.6% -0.1% -2.5% 2.0% 3.5% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (CBO) $500 Billion of Infrastructure* (CBO) Universal Pre-K & Child Care* (PWBM) Reconciliation Tax Policies (Tax Foundation) $1.5 Trillion Reconciliation (PWBM) $3.5 Trillion Reconciliation (PWBM) $3.5 Trillion Reconciliation (Moody's) Increase to Generate $600 Billion Dynamic Effect 2031 GDP Change from Different Policies We Don’t Rely on Rosy Dynamic Scoring
  • 38. CRFB.org Source: Tax Policy Center Average 2022 Benefit from Repeal of SALT Cap, dollars $0 $2 $15 $85 $360 $2,480 $35,660 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 Bottom Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile 80th-90th Percentile 90th-99th Percentile Top 1% We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
  • 39. CRFB.org $85 $110 $23 $17 $11 $70 $50 $33 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 SALT Cap Repeal Extended Expanded Child Tax Credit Paid Family Leave Universal Pre-K Free Community College Raise Corporate Rate to 28% Drug Price Negotiations Increase Top Individual Rate to 39.6% Billions Per Year Note: Annual costs of proposed policies use averages of the total cost over the time relevant time period Source: Tax Policy Center, Office of Management and Budget, Senate Finance Committee, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
  • 40. CRFB.org Source: Tax Policy Center, Tax Foundation, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Percent of Overall Benefit of Different Tax Reform Proposals that Would Accrue to the Bottom Three Income Quintiles 0.8% 1.6% 2.6% 12.3% 34.7% 63.6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Repeal SALT Cap Repeal SALT Cap Below $1m Repeal SALT Cap Below $500k Repeal SALT Cap Below $200k Tax Cuts and Jobs Act CASH Act ($2k rebates) We Don’t Waste a Dime on SALT Cap Repeal
  • 41. CRFB.org Tax Credits $950 Tax Credits $500 Education & Childcare $300 Education & Childcare $300 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $400 Climate, Infrastructure, Housing $400 ACA & Medicaid $300 ACA & Medicaid $300 Medicare & Long-Term Care $200 Paid Leave $150 Tax Rates $700 Tax Rates $700 Tax Gap $350 Tax Gap $350 Health Care $500 Health Care $300 Payroll Tax $150 Other Revenue $600 Other Revenue $150 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Offsets Costs Offsets Costs Two Plans to Build Back Better for Less Billions $1.5 Trillion Package $2.3 Trillion Package Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget $1.5 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.3 trillion $2.3 trillion