Presentation by Dr. Mohamed B. Elgali (University of Gezira, Sudan) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 9, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

1. Wheat for Food Security in Africa
Conference Oct., 8-12, 2012 in Addis
Ababa
Trends in wheat production and consumption in Sudan
Mohamed B. Elgali* and Rajaa H. Mustafa
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Gezira,
PO. Box 20, Medani, Sudan
*Corresponding author: melgali@yahoo.com

2. Contents:
 Introduction
 Methodology
 Results and discussion
 Conclusion and policy recommendations

3. INTRODUCTION
 The Sudan wheat situation is characterized by rapid
growth in consumption, continuous and variable deficit
between domestic need and local production. In that
respect the national effort in increasing wheat
production has been a priority.
 Sudan grows wheat in the irrigated sector in Gezira,
Rahad and New Halfa schemes, in addition to a limited
area in northern part of the Nile valley.

4. Figure (1) Main crop zones of Sudan

5.  Gezira scheme represents the main area of wheat production
in Sudan.
 Yields have varied considerably, sometimes below 1MT/ha but
more often well above 2MT/ha, especially in recent years.
Nevertheless, they are below the average for developing
countries as a whole by 25-30%.
 Water and climate have been a limiting factor to wheat
production, since wheat is a winter crop, and the winter in
Sudan is too short.
 The temperature in most of Sudan is too warm to realize large
yields. In addition, wheat yields are very sensitive to planting
dates (Konardeas 2009).

6.  Climatic criteria, especially temperature, deny large
potentials for wheat to any part of Sudan. The growing
season of wheat in the Gezira is from mid-October to mid-
April, with temperatures, in 0 C, as follows:
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April
Mean minimum 21.9 18.4 15.3 14.3 15.0 17.8 20.9
Mean maximum 38.6 37.0 34.6 34.1 35.4 38.6 41.2
Mean daily 30.3 27.7 25.0 24.2 25.2 28.2 31.0
Source: FAO

7.  Trials at experimental stations by Nile Valley Regional
Program and Agricultural research corporation show that:
 The maximum yields of semi-dwarf Mexican wheat varieties
sown between mid-October and mid-November are 3.57
tons/ha in the Northern region, 2.85 tons/ha in the Gezira and
1.9 tons/ha in New Halfa;
 When planted between mid-November and mid-December.
 Finance wheat production is also a limiting factor.

8. Figure 2: Wheat production, consumption and imports 1980-2010
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Tons
1,500,000
Production
Imports
1,000,000 Consumption
500,000
0

9. Table (2) Agricultural Exports And Wheat Imports In Sudan 2001-2008
Year Agriculture Share of Wheat Imports Wheat
Exports Agriculture Quantity Imports
(Million US$) Exports in Total (million tons) Value
Exports (%) (Million US$)
2001 240.6 14.9 0.52 109.7
2002 356.2 18.8 1.03 199.3
2003 410.3 16.1 0.90 190.5
2004 590.7 16.5 1.06 255.6
2005 578.8 12.0 1.45 373.9
2006 569.4 10.0 1.36 336.5
2007 412.3 4.6 1.13 363.6
2008 508.9 4.4 1.18 715.3

10. Study objective
This paper analyzes wheat in Sudan by examining trends
in wheat production, consumption and trade in addition,
it investigates trade policy and the potential of wheat
production.

11. Methodology
The methodology employed in this paper includes two main parts:
 The first part analysis past current and future situation of wheat
indicators of area, production, yields, consumption, imports and
self sufficiency with emphasis on trends of wheat production,
consumption and imports.
 The second part analyzes the government Wheat trade policy
and its impacts on consumer and producer surpluses.

12. Trend equations
The following section represents the equations that estimates the
trend line regression of wheat production, consumption and
imports.
Production
𝐗 𝐏𝐫 = ∝+β Y (1)
consumption
𝐗 𝐜𝐨𝐧 = ∝+β Y (2)
Imports
𝐗 𝐢𝐦 = ∝+β Y (3)
Where 𝑿 𝑷𝒓 is wheat production, 𝑿 𝒄𝒐𝒏 wheat
consumption, 𝑿 𝒊𝒎 wheat imports and Y is time.

13.  Data on area, production, yield and imports of wheat for the
period 1980-2010 were collected from Ministry of Agriculture
and Bank of Sudan annual reports.
 Consumption is estimated simply by adding domestic wheat
production to imports.
 Trends estimate for wheat variables is up to the year 2025.

14. Government policy
Estimation of impact of changes in import tariffs
 This analysis uses a single-commodity model of supply and
demand adapted from IFPRI to estimate the impact of various
changes in the market for wheat as import substitute
commodity.
 It allows simulations of changes in import tariffs, as well as
changes in the world price, supply shifts, and changes in
income.
 The model simulates the effect of these changes on
production, consumption, imports, and prices.
 It also generates estimates of the economic impact of the
change on consumers, producers, and the overall economy.

15. Figure 3 Supply, demand and welfare
P D
S
u
b
PS+β
PC c
e
PS
f
0 qd qS Q

16. Supply Equation
s i
q  ci * ( p )
s
i i
Where
qis is the amount of wheat supplied
ci is the supply calibration coefficient of wheat
pis is the supply price of wheat
i is the supply price elasticity of wheat

17. Demand Equation
q  bi * (p ) * I
d
i
c ηi
i
μi
Where
q id is the amount wheat demanded
bi is the demand calibration coefficient of wheat
pic is the demand price of wheat
i is the demand price elasticity
I is per capita income
i is the income elasticity of wheat

18. Results and Discussion

19. Trends over the Past Three Decades
Table (1) Wheat indicators 1980-2010
Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10
Minimum 48 141 91
Area (1000 ha) Average 137 308 198
Maximum 486 462 307
Minimum 79 172 213
Production (1000 Average 178.6 523.5 419.8
tons)
Maximum 247 838 669
Minimum 0.97 1.1 1.5
Yield (ton/ha) Average 1.2 1.6 2.1
Maximum 1.7 2.2 2.4

20. Indicator moment 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09
Minimum 504.1 729.9 1,156.8
Consumption (1000 Average 743.5 1,083.7 1,770.8
tons)
Maximum 1,152.3 1,663.8 2,523.2
Minimum 286.1 276.9 824.8
Imports (1000 tons) Average 570.6 547.5 1,328.0
Maximum 1,073.3 977.8 1,882.2
Self sufficiency ratio % Minimum 6 19 17
Average 24 49 25
Maximum 43 69 36

21. Estimations of Wheat trend equations
Production trend estimates
𝑿 𝑷𝒓 = 𝟐𝟎𝟐. 𝟔+10.7 Y
(3.14 )
𝑹 𝟐 =0.262 F= 9
Consumption trend estimates
𝑿 𝒄𝒐𝒏 = 𝟒𝟑. 𝟔+50.9Y
( 8.5)
𝑹 𝟐 =0.724 F= 73
Imports trend estimates
𝑿 𝒊𝒎 = 𝟐𝟐𝟔. 𝟔+40 Y
( 6.3)
𝑹 𝟐 =0.591 F= 40

22. Table (2) Wheat trends of production, consumption and imports
2012-2025
Years Production Consumption Imports
(000) tons (000) tons (000) tons
2012 545 2066.4 1509.8
2013 555.7 2117.3 1549.9
2014 566.4 2168.2 1590
2015 577.1 2219.1 1630.1
2016 587.8 2270 1670.2
2017 598.5 2320.9 1710.3
2018 609.2 2371.8 1750.4
2019 619.9 2422.7 1790.5
2020 630.6 2473.6 1830.6
2021 641.3 2524.5 1870.7
2022 652 2575.4 1910.8
2023 662.7 2626.3 1950.9
2024 673.4 2677.2 1991
2025 684.1 2728.1 2031.1

23. Government policy and simulation results
Results Before After %
change
Production (1000 tons) -15%
403,000 341,562
Consumption (1000 tons) 12%
2,011,002 2,245,446
Imports (1000 tons) 18%
1,608,002 1,903,883
Tariff revenue (million US$) - -100%
119.64
Autarky price (US$/ton) 0%
4,371 4,371
Import parity price (US$/ton) -42%
176 101
Price (US$/ton) -42%
176 101
Price (Local currency/ton) -42%
1,053 607
Change in consumer surplus 158.34 million
Change in producer surplus -27.70 million
Change in welfare for producers & 130.64 million
consumers
Change in tariff revenue -47.05 million

24. Production potential
Sudan has constructed tow projects on the River Nile
 In the north where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3
million hectares and also the
 Heightening of Rosaris dam on the Blue Nile which will
provide 1.2 million hectares of irrigated land.

25. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
 The research findings showed that wheat consumption in
Sudan is increasing at a rate higher than production. and the
imports would grow accordingly.
 If Sudan continue to produce wheat at the current trend,
the country might need to import around 2 million ton by
2025 to meet its growing consumption.

26.  Wheat yield have improved to reach 2.4 ton/ha, but it
is still below the developing countries level.
 The policy of removing wheat importing tariffs;
imposes a US$ 27.70 million cost on producers in the
form of lower prices. On the other hand, the lower price
provides benefits to consumers of wheat of US$ 158.34
million.

27.  In order to bridge wheat gab the government needs to
promote its domestic production which is possible in the
north where Marawe dam will irrigate around 0.3 million
hectares and also the heightening of Rosaris dam on the
Blue Nile which will provide 1.2 million hectare of irrigated
land.
 country needs to attract FDI To secure financial fund for
wheat production.

28. THANK YOU