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Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability,
and how we can support the forests potential for coping
with such




                       => How to prepare for the future?
      Picea abies CSO, Silkeborg



     Erik D. Kjær
     Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning,
     Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen
Native species still fit?

Some European examples
Picea abies




http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
Quercus robur and Q. petraea




       http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
Betula pendula and Betula pubescens




           http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
Pinus sylvestris




Danish origin         Abisco origin
Health




                                                1.5
                                                      1.7
                                                            1.9
                                                                  2.1
                                                                        2.3
                                                                              2.5
                                                                                    2.7
                                    Landrace                                              2.9

                                    Landrace


                                    Landrace


                                    Landrace


                                    Landrace


                                    Landrace
                                                                                                Health




                                       Baltic


                                    Scotland
Danish field trial, NW Jutland.
Source: Kjær og Barner 1998




                                    Scotland


                                     Letland

                                  Oscarhamn,
                                      S

                                  Sæverås, N
Hypothesis:
Forest tree species accommodate large
  climatic variation by local adaptation
rather than simple phenotypic plasticity
Climatic extremes – not only average
        temperature and rain




                                     Photo: Jørgensen, 1999

      Species trial after the storm in 3-12. 1999
New pests and diseases
Competition with new species




       An example
Ash dieback




Photos: Iben Thomsen
Genetic variation is present!
                   100

                                                                                  100% = All dead!
                   90

                   80
                                                                                   ----
                   70
Crown damage (%)




                   60
                                                                                   ---
                   50

                   40                                                              --
                   30
                                                                                   -
                   20

                   10
                                                                                   +
                                                                                   ++
                    0
                              2007
                               1                   2008
                                                     2                  2009
                                                                         3


                         Development 2007-2009, 40 clones, 25 replications, established 1998
Genetic variation is present!
We need to support adaptation!

What and how?

Darwin, Wallace and the Red Queen...
Darwin-Wallace: ’survival of the
    fittest based on natural selection’

’Species evolve to fit specific habitats though natural
  selection according to their fitness’

’Selection and isolation’
The Red Queen Theory

Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain
  their evoluationary relevance....
The Red Queen Theory
The Red Queen Theory
The Red Queen Theory
’It takes all the running you can do just to stay in the
   same place’

Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain
  their evolutionary relevance....
What we have learned so-far on the
      trees ability to ’run fast’

• Genetic patterns of differentiation are pronounced
• Potential for adaption seem large if management
  are based on sound genetic principles
• Many aspects are difficult to predict – especially
  new pests and pathogens
Support continued adaptation-
                   How?
• Effective natural selection –
  Level of genetic diversity, Generation intervals, population
  sizes, Ratio: regeneration/Mature trees
• Gene flow and migration–
  Seed and pollen at the landscape level, movement and testing
  of germplasm (genetic pockets)

  Researchers: we need to understand adaptation and the role
  of genetic diversity
  Managers: we need to protect, support en encourage genetic
  processes
  Policy makers: we need to apply a dynamic view of species
  and genetic origins
Acknowledgements

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Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability, and how we can support the forests potential for coping with such

  • 1. Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability, and how we can support the forests potential for coping with such => How to prepare for the future? Picea abies CSO, Silkeborg Erik D. Kjær Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen
  • 2. Native species still fit? Some European examples
  • 4. Quercus robur and Q. petraea http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
  • 5. Betula pendula and Betula pubescens http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
  • 7. Health 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 Landrace 2.9 Landrace Landrace Landrace Landrace Landrace Health Baltic Scotland Danish field trial, NW Jutland. Source: Kjær og Barner 1998 Scotland Letland Oscarhamn, S Sæverås, N
  • 8. Hypothesis: Forest tree species accommodate large climatic variation by local adaptation rather than simple phenotypic plasticity
  • 9. Climatic extremes – not only average temperature and rain Photo: Jørgensen, 1999 Species trial after the storm in 3-12. 1999
  • 10. New pests and diseases Competition with new species An example
  • 12. Genetic variation is present! 100 100% = All dead! 90 80 ---- 70 Crown damage (%) 60 --- 50 40 -- 30 - 20 10 + ++ 0 2007 1 2008 2 2009 3 Development 2007-2009, 40 clones, 25 replications, established 1998
  • 14. We need to support adaptation! What and how? Darwin, Wallace and the Red Queen...
  • 15. Darwin-Wallace: ’survival of the fittest based on natural selection’ ’Species evolve to fit specific habitats though natural selection according to their fitness’ ’Selection and isolation’
  • 16. The Red Queen Theory Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain their evoluationary relevance....
  • 17. The Red Queen Theory
  • 18. The Red Queen Theory
  • 19. The Red Queen Theory ’It takes all the running you can do just to stay in the same place’ Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain their evolutionary relevance....
  • 20. What we have learned so-far on the trees ability to ’run fast’ • Genetic patterns of differentiation are pronounced • Potential for adaption seem large if management are based on sound genetic principles • Many aspects are difficult to predict – especially new pests and pathogens
  • 21. Support continued adaptation- How? • Effective natural selection – Level of genetic diversity, Generation intervals, population sizes, Ratio: regeneration/Mature trees • Gene flow and migration– Seed and pollen at the landscape level, movement and testing of germplasm (genetic pockets) Researchers: we need to understand adaptation and the role of genetic diversity Managers: we need to protect, support en encourage genetic processes Policy makers: we need to apply a dynamic view of species and genetic origins