The Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team met in Rome from May 25-28, 2015 to review progress towards current work plans, discuss model improvements and technical parameters, and consider possible contributions by the GFSF program to the CRP Phase II planning process. All 15 CGIAR Centers were represented at the meeting.
2. Worldfish GFSF 2015
Workplan/Deliverables
Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI
working paper
Q2/2016?
Fish supply and demand modelling
projection for Indonesia using the
ASIAFISH modelling approach
WorldFish Working
Paper
Q3/2015
Spatially-explicit scenarios for
aquaculture targets and zoning in the
Mekong River Delta of Vietnam
WorldFish Working
Paper
Q4/2015
3. Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model
Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit,
and futures of fish supply
4. INDONESIA WORK
Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia
using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach
9. Asia Fish sector Model Framework
Factor DD/SS
Shifters
Factor market Producer core Product
markets
Consumer core Product
demand shifters
Profit
functions,
System of
output
supply and
factor
demand
equations
Supply of
imports
Technology,
Environment,
and policy
shifters
Demand for
exports
System of
consumers
demand
equations
DD:
• DD from other sectors
(livestock)
• Trade and exchange
rate policies
SS:
• Import subsidies
• Taxes
• Domestic industry
efficiency
SS Shifter:
• Population growth
• Migration
• Employment outside
fisheries/aquaculture
sector
• Population
growth
• Income
growth
• International
trade
• Tariff/ taxes
10. Scenarios for ASIAFISH model
• Implications of socio-economic growth (income,
population)
• Implications of factor prices (e.g., fertilizer, labor)
• Trade implications (e.g., import prices, export
prices, exchange rate)
• Climate change, technological change
Other outputs/deliverables in 2015:
Review of Literature on Seafood Demand and Supply: Recommendations for Building Country Specific Fish Sector Models
Review of promising aquaculture technologies, climate smart aquaculture practices
Note: both qualitative scenario building and modelling approaches are used.
Qualitative scenario: Develop narrative stories describing drivers of change, quality of change, change pathways, impact pathways, logic of impacts, uncertainties, complexity
Modeling: Identify trends, direction of changes, magnitudes of change,…; Model simplifies reality, keep key structures and interactions
For this study the model will be disaggregated as:
National aggregate = MRD + Rest of the country
Total fish output = Aquaculture + Fisheries
Aquaculture = shrimp + catfish + tilapia + carps +… (to include dominant fish types)
Fish output (O) = A (area) x P (productivity)
A will be given by CC scenarios: In a future where the MRD will be impacted by climate change and sea-level rise, and changes in hydrological conditions, the present spatial pattern of aquaculture may change.
P will be given by aquaculture outlook reviews: Adaptation and advancement in aquaculture technologies via R&D will affect productivity.
Deliverable in 2015:
A WorldFish working paper reviewing past and current aquaculture economics and markets outlook in the Mekong Delta; ways forward (future scenarios for aquaculture economics and market outlooks); and suggestions for further research and modeling; Due Q4/2015
Theoretical foundation:
The AsiaFish model is a partial equilibrium country specific fish sector model.
Derived supply function approach: normalized profit function…
Demand model follows three budgeting stages, final stage is the almost ideal demand system (AIDS)
Assume that a group of closely related seafood products is separable from other foods. If commodities are assumed to be separable, multi-stage budgeting becomes possible.
Trade code: Armington approach: foreign-domestic aggregate for production, consumptuon.