While both Arabica and Robusta coffee futures are up significantly, Arabica has outpaced its higher-caffeine cousin in the race of coffee prices to the top. The issue of expensive Arabica coffee is not confined to this year and the era of Covid-19. Climatic changes will effect coffee production and prices into the far future. How expensive will coffee be going forward?
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The price of coffee has gone up significantly.
Commodities, in general, are up due to
Covid-era inflation but coffee has
outpaced them all and sits at a ten-year
high as noted in Fortune. While both
Arabica and Robusta coffee futures are up
significantly, Arabica has outpaced its
higher-caffeine cousin in the race of coffee
prices to the top.
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EXPENSIVE-WILL-ARABICA-COFFEE-BE/
While Vietnam exports a bit more Robusta
than Brazil and Colombia exports more
Arabica coffee, Brazil comes in a close
second in both while Vietnam produces
Robusta and Colombia does not grow
anything but Arabica. Thus, Brazil is the
largest coffee producer and exporter in the
world by a long shot. The global coffee
“deficit” due to Brazil’s drought is about 5.2
million bags (70 kg bags).
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Back in the summer of 2021 we wrote about
climate change and coffee production.
As we noted in that article, the steady
increase in temperatures has forced coffee
farmers to grow their highest-quality
Arabica coffees at higher and higher
altitudes to avoid infestations of coffee
leaf rust and pests like the coffee borer
beetle.
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Colombia started working on leaf rust resistant
coffee nearly 50 years ago and has
developed several crosses between standard
Arabica coffee and leaf rust resistant strains
from Timor in the East Indies. Caturra is one
that is grown extensively in the lower
altitudes of the Colombia coffee growing
region (3,000 to 5,000 feet). If the Colombian
Coffee Growers Association plant scientists
pull off a miracle, they may be able to keep
growing high quality Arabica coffee at all
altitudes.
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If not, the supply of Arabica from the largest
Arabica producer, Colombia, will gradually be
reduced. The law of supply and demand will
exert itself and the price of the best quality
coffee will gradually climb, year by year. The
overall price for much of the coffee that
people drink may not go up so much because
people will be drinking more Robusta and
similar varieties with more caffeine, less
flavor, less aroma, and more-affordable
prices.