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RESEARCH REPORT
Concorde Oil & Gas plc
March 2006
VSA Resources is committed to providing objective research. This report has been
commissioned by Concorde Oil & Gas plc and is therefore unlikely to be perceived as
objective. Your attention is further drawn to the disclaimer at the end of this research report.
Investment Summary: A bright prospect beckons
Concorde is acquiring Pechora Energy, a Russian company, which holds the licence for
oil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil field in the Timan-Pechora Basin of the Komi
Republic, with 33 m barrels (bbls) of 3P reserves, which have been certified by Miller &
Lents of Houston, Texas. The untested further upside potential of the field is separately
estimated at 12 m bbls. Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd) but
this is expected to rise significantly once Concorde starts developing the field later this
year. We estimate that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could be achieved in
2010. We expect positive cash flow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012. Further
production is expected to be added when a number of identified, currently
‘stranded’ oil fields in the area, are acquired.
Rail Terminal
Its wholly-controlled export rail terminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, which
can be doubled with a relatively small outlay, allows the Company great flexibility in
the way it can get its oil to market. It is not dependent on Transneft and the capacity
constraints that currently affect the Russian pipeline system.
Fund Raising
At the time of its admission on AIM, Concorde is raising up to £25m in equity finance
to be used in (a) acquiring Pechora Energy; (b) to shoot 3D Seismic on the field; (c) to
drill a number of development wells; (d) to evaluate and acquire other prospects in
the region; and, (e) for working capital purposes.
Valuation
We estimate that the value of Concorde, assuming all reserves are developed, a
declining and constant oil price, high transport costs and onerous export duties, with
a 10 % discount factor to be between £52.6m - £80.0 million. This will increase once
the proposed fiscal regime for the oil industry is approved by the Dumas. In addition,
if we use the value that the stock market is assigning to the Proven and Probable
reserves of certain companies that operate in the Russian Federation, then
Concorde’s valuation is much higher at between £118m - 219m.
Year End Revenue (£’m) PBT* (£m) EPS*(p) DPS (p) PE (x) Yield (%)
2005a 0 -0.015 n/a 0 n/a 0
2006e 8.3 -7.4 n/a 0 n/a 0
2007e 53.9 2.6 n/a 0 n/a 0
2008e 125.7 21.8 n/a 0 n/a 0
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding goodwill amortisation and exceptional items
Admission to AIM and acquisition of
exciting hydrcarbon assets in the Timan-
Pechora basin of Russia
Concorde Oil & Gas plc Price 9p
Market Cap £16.4m
SHARE DETAILS
CODE CDE
LISTING Ofex
SECTOR Speciality & other finance
SHARES IN ISSUE 182m
PRICE
52 weeks
High Low
15.5p 2.5p
BALANCE SHEET
Debt/Equity (%) 0
NAV (£m) 80 - 221
(Net borrowings)/Cash (£m) 0.2
BUSINESS
GEOGRAPHY (based on revenues)
UK EUROPE US OTHER
0% 0% 0% 100 %
ANALYST
Brian McBeth 020 7628 3989
bmcbeth@vsaresources.com
SALES
Neil Pidgeon 020 7628 3989
npidgeon@vsaresources.com
Since it was floated on Ofex
last September, Concorde has
evaluated a significant number of
potential hydrocarbon deals in the
Russian Federation and the FSU.
With the acquisition of Pechora
Energy, Concorde is set to become
a relatively large crude oil
producer over the next 36 months.
2005 2006
15.00
8.00
0.62
S N J M
4 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Investment summary: A Russian Play
Fasten your seat belts – steep share
take-off
Concorde was founded in 2005 by Peter Hughes
and John Rigby, two former Texaco executives
with great experience in Russia, to acquire
attractive, producing and near producing assets
in the Russian Federation and the FSU. The
Company was floated on Ofex at the end of
September 2005, raising £190,000 net of
expenses, which funded the Company’s initial
evaluation programme. In December 2005, the
Company raised a further £1 m to evaluate in
depth possible hydrocarbon deals in the Russian
Federation and the FSU. After an exhaustive
search, Concorde settled on acquiring Pechora
Energy (PE) in the Komi Republic with its
producing Luzskoye field with currently Proven,
Probable and Possible reserves of 33 m bbls that
have been verified by Miller and Lents. The field
could contain a further 12 m bbls of recoverable
reserves, for a total of 45 m bbls.
Conservative valuation with
significant upside
We have modelled the Luzskoye field using a
range of reserves from Proven (10 m bbls) to
Proven, Probable, Possible and Upside potential
(45 m bbls), and a constant and declining oil price
scenario with a starting price of $60/bbl. We have
also assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % of
production is exported with the rest sold to the
domestic market. A starting Oil Export Duty of
$27.08/bbl. A Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of
16.5 % from January 1, 2007. Transport costs are
relatively high at around $7.40/bbl because the oil
has to be sent by rail. It is likely to remain high
because of a lack of pipeline capacity and rolling
stock capacity to move the oil. Finally, a
corporation tax of 24 % has been applied on the
nominal profits made. We have run a number of
sensitivities using various discount factors that
range from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oil
prices and declining oil prices. The project is
robust even at a 25 percent discount rate and with
declining oil prices.
Challenges of operating in Russia
The Company faces three main challenges:
(1) To develop and operate the field, especially
using horizontal drilling techniques. Although
Russia was the first country to drill horizontal
wells, the level of expertise of the drilling
crews in this particular discipline is generally
low.
(2) To maintain strict cost discipline. There is a
general price escalation in the cost of drilling
and completing wells worldwide, and
transport costs, and Russia is no exception.
This is likely to escalate as activity in the
area increases over the next few years.
(3) If deemed applicable, a paraffin separator
plant could take longer to construct than
expected because it has to be imported
into the country.
The possibility of the oil price weakening is
always a fundamental point of concern as it is
the main driver in the sector, but this is one area
where we do not expect any weakness for some
years to come.
Positive cash flow in 2008
We estimate that the Luzskoye field is profitable
at current crude oil prices, even when producing
only the Proven reserves. It is more profitable
when the Probable and Possible reserves are
produced, generating a profit of $3.85/bbl. Of
greater significance perhaps is that the Company
will be generating positive net cash flow in 2008
after repaying part of the debt used to develop
the field. We expect Concorde to have net cash
balances of just under $3.0 m at the end of 2008.
History
Concorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby,
two former Texaco executives with great experience in
Russia, in 2005 to acquire attractive assets in the Russian
Federation and the FSU. The Company was floated on
Ofex at the end of September 2005, raising £190,000
net of expenses, which funded the Company’s initial
evaluation programme. In December 2005, the Company
raised a further £1 m to evaluate in depth possible
hydrocarbon deals in the Russian Federation and the FSU.
The Acquisition of Pecherskaia
Energeticheskaia Compania (PE)
After an exhaustive search, Concorde settled on acquiring
for $25m the entire equity capital of Pecherskaia
Energeticheskaia Compania (Pechora Energy or PE), a
Russian company established in 1998, and which holds the
licence for oil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil field
in the Timan-Pechora Basin of the Komi Republic. The
total oil in place at the Luzskoye field is calculated at over
100 m bbls, with Proven, Probable and Possible reserves
of 33 m bbls. As part of the purchase, Concorde is also
acquiring a recently operational rail terminal from which
to export its hydrocarbon production. Additionally, PE
owns a maintenance base at Kadgerom, the nearest town
to the field, a fleet of trucks, a drilling rig and other real
estate facilities.
The Luzskoye Field
Miller and Lents Ltd., a leading independent reserves
estimator with significant experience in Russia, has
calculated that the Luzskoye field has Proven (P1) reserves
of 10.1 m bbls, with a Probable (P2) reserves of 11.7 m
bbls and Possible (P3) reserves of 11.3 m bbls. Total oil in
place is calculated at over 100 m bbls. The untested,
further upside potential of the field is separately
calculated at 12 m bbls recoverable by GeoServis, a highly
experienced Moscow-based Geological Consultancy.
Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd)
but this is expected to rise significantly once Concorde
starts investing in the field later this year. We estimate
that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could be
achieved in 2010. It should be noted that by acquiring PE,
Concorde owns 100 % of PE’s production, unlike other
companies with production sharing contracts.
The acquisition of PE is expected to cost Concorde $20-
25m, with a guaranteed initial capital expenditure on the
field of at least $10m in the first two years. The guarantee
is not an onerous one because it is clear that the capital
expenditure involved in developing the field is greater
than $10m.
Concorde will pursue an aggressive development plan,
drilling a number of horizontal wells, which together with
vertical wells are expected to deplete the reservoir in the
most efficient manner. As a result, we expect positive cash
flow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012.
Further Reserves
Further production is expected to be added when a
number of identified, currently ‘stranded’, oil fields in
the area, are acquired. Its wholly-controlled export rail
terminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, and
which can double with a relatively small outlay, allows
the Company great flexibility in the way it gets its oil
to market as it is not dependent on Transneft and the
capacity constraints that currently affect the Russian
pipeline system.
Management and Operational Centres
The management of PE is supervised by Rus-Oil, a
company registered in Altaysky Kray, which also
supervises drilling and markets the Company’s crude oil.
It is understood that Rus-Oil has a contract to drill 11 oil
wells at a total cost of around $10 m.
Apart from the Luzskoye field, PE also owns a
maintenance base at Kadgerom, some 40 kilomtres away
from the field, a fleet of trucks and transport vehicles, a
small work-over drilling rig and other real estate facilities.
Concorde will also acquire as part of the purchase price a
rail terminal from which to export its hydrocarbon
production.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 5
The road to Kadgerom
The Luzskoye Field
6
The main administrative office of PE is in Pechora City,
some 200 kms away, where it employs 20 office staff. In
the Luzskoye field and Kadgerom town, the Company
employs a further 69 people, made up mainly of two 30-
man drilling crews on rotation. At the field headquarters,
there are heated workshops, garages and storage areas
to support field activities along with trucks, transport
vehicles, bulldozers and fire control services. There are
also storage facilities for 4000 bbls of oil together with
storage facilities at PE’s Kadgerom rail terminal for
approximately 3500 bbls, of which a third is kept
underground.
The Luzskoye Field
A. RESERVES
The field consists of up to seven Devonian age reservoirs,
which have tested high grade, low sulphur 40 API oil, with
a paraffin content variously reported as between 13 % -
16%. The geological structure is a simple one, with three,
vertically stacked reservoir zones, facilitating a relatively
simple development. The field extends over an area
of just under 21 square kilometres, with the producing
horizons found at depths that range from 1700 - 2200
metres. The Proven, Probable and Possible reserves
detailed in the Miller & Lents report of just under
33 m bbls are contained in five reservoirs:
CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
TheThe LuzskoyeLuzskoye FieldField
Luzskoye Field
Source: Concorde Oil & Gas
Table I: Luzskoye Field Proven, Probable & Possible
Reserves, March 2006 (m bbls)
Reserves Oil Gas
Proved 10.06 0
Probable 11.66 0
Possible 11.25 0
TOTAL 32.97 0
Source: Miller & Lents
The reserves stated above were verified by Miller & Lents
of Houston, Texas, using data obtained from the All
Russia Research Geological Oil Institute (VNIGNI).
Additionally, a further two possible reservoir horizons have
been identified in the Devonian, with untested estimated
recoverable reserves of around 12 m bbls as calculated by
GeoServis.
The location of the field in the Komi Republic is given on
the map on page 6.
The licence to develop and operate the field expires in
2014, along with most other licences in the area, but it is
confidently expected that an extension will be granted as
long as the field is developed in a competent manner.
B. PRODUCTION HISTORY
Since 1965, all four wells drilled on the field have been
oil discoveries, with cumulative production up to the
beginning of this year of around 141,000 bbls. Over the
past two years production from the field averaged 103
bpd, utilising various zones in different wells to
accommodate work on surface facilities but is currently
producing around 250 bpd from well No. 201, shown
below, from one reservoir zone after an electric
submersible pump was installed. Current production is
severely limited by ‘poor boy’ surface infrastructure but
with improved drilling and completion techniques, and
stimulation of the wells, we expect production to rise to
around 300 bpd or higher. Clearly, this does not take into
account the significant potential from other tested
reservoir zones. In addition, one of the reservoir zones is
planned to be depleted by the use of horizontal wells,
improving production rates substantially from the
standard vertical wells used at the moment.
Two further wells have recently been re-completed, with
well No. 302, shown below, expected to come on-stream
within the next month. In mid-April/May, a new well is to
be drilled at what is deemed the crestal location of the
structure.
Well 201 – the current producing well
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 7
Drilling Well 302 at the end of February
PE has the operatorship of four potential production wells
on the field, one of which is currently leased from LUKOIL
and which accounted for 75 % of total production of just
over 31,000 bbls in 2005. Although the oil produced is
extremely sweet (sulphur 0.2%), and in great demand, it
does contain a reported 13 % -16 % paraffin. This means
that the oil is sold on average at a 15 % discount to the
Urals Blend marker and a 30 % discount to the domestic
price.
PE’s crude oil production is trucked from the field to the
Company’s own rail terminal of Kadgerom, which is
situated 40 kilometres away. PE maintains 20 kilometres of
the road as well as a pontoon bridge. The use of the
railroad allows the Company to by-pass the limit of 33 %
imposed by Transneft, the state-owned pipeline company,
for transporting the oil. It is likely that in 2006, all
production will be sold to the Afipsky oil refinery in the
Krasnodar region of Russia as domestic oil sales.
C. DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF THE FIELD
The development plan included in the Miller & Lents
report is highly conservative and follows closely the plan
set out by VNIGNI in 2004. The plan depletes the reserves
over 18 years and calls for 212 wells to be drilled,
including 80 recompletions, using a 500-metre spacing
between wells.
It is likely that Concorde will shoot an extensive 3D-
Seismic programme over the field to determine with
greater accuracy the distribution of the producing wells.
The spacing needed to deplete the field is likely to be
between 600 metres to 800 metres, reducing considerably
the capital needed to develop the field. In addition, one
reservoir in particular is likely to be depleted by drilling a
number of horizontal wells. The cost of drilling a vertical
well and a horizontal well is estimated at under $1m and
just under $2m respectively.
In addition, Concorde will evaluate the applicability of a
paraffin separation plant to the project by running a test
facility and full chemical analysis of the oil. It is probable,
however, that at the end of the test that a paraffin
separation unit, costing an estimated $3-5m, will be
installed at the field headquarters to separate out the
paraffin, increasing considerably the marketability of the
oil. Finally, an oil-gathering pipeline on the field is likely to
be installed at a cost of $1 m as well as a 40-km pipeline
to the rail terminal, which would cost $3m. The intra-field
pipeline will make it easier to get the oil out during the
summer months and save on the maintenance costs of
the access roads.
The chart given below shows the production profile that
we would expect from the fully developed field. On the
conservative Miller & Lents development plan, peak
8 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Source: Concorde Oil & Gas
Luzskoye Field: E-W Geological Cross-section
production of just over 8000 bpd is reached in 2013. On
our more aggressive development plan, we have
production peaking at just under 12,000 bpd in 2010,
assuming 45m bbls are produced.
D. THE RAIL TERMINAL AT KADGEROM
The Company’s rail terminal has just become operational
at a cost of just over $1m. The current loading facility
can handle five 450 bbls rail cars but there is enough
expansion room for a further 15 rail cars, giving total
export capacity of 9000 bbls per delivery.
The advantage of owning a rail terminal is that 100 % of
the Company’s oil can be exported out of the country
because there is no limitation to how much oil is exported
using the rail system. Transneft, the oil pipeline operator,
imposes a 33 % limit on the total produced by a company
that can be exported using its pipeline system. In
addition, by such a rail terminal Concorde can develop
‘stranded’ oilfields in the region much faster than its
competitors, given that there is an export route available
to deliver the oil to market. The oil can be sent by rail to
either the Baltic ports, in particular Primorsk, or to
Tikhorestskaya in Southern Russia, near to the port of
Novorossiysk.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 9
Source: Miller & Lents and VSA estimates
Concorde Oil's Kadgerom Rail Terminal
Concorde’s possible production profile
CPR VSA 3P Production VSA 3P+Upside
14000.0
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Sensitivities: three main challenges
The Company faces three main challenges:
1. To develop and operate the field, especially using
horizontal drilling techniques. Although Russia was the
first country to drill horizontal wells, the level of
expertise of the drilling crews in this particular
discipline is generally low.
2. To maintain strict cost discipline. There is a general
price escalation in the cost of drilling and completing
worldwide, as well as in transport costs, and Russia is
no exception. This is likely to escalate as activity in the
area increases over the next few years.
3. If deemed applicable, a proposed paraffin separator
plant could take longer to construct than expected
because it has to be imported into the country.
The possibility of the oil price weakening is always a
fundamental point of concern as it is the main driver in
the sector, but this is one area where we do not expect
any weakness for some years to come.
Valuation
We have modelled the Luzskoye field using Proven
reserves, 3P Reserves, and 3P + Upside potential reserves
and a constant and declining oil price scenario. We have
assumed Proven reserves of 10.1 m bbls and a high
reserve level of 33 m bbls, with a further 12 m bbls of
upside potential in our most optimistic scenario. We have
also assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % of the
production is exported with the rest sold to the domestic
market. We have also used various discount factors that
range from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oil prices
and declining oil prices that fall to $21/bbl. In our model,
we have made the following assumptions:
• a starting oil price of $60/bbl
• a Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of 16.5 % from
January 1, 2007.
• The Oil Export Duty is calculated using the following
formula: 65 % of the difference between the average
Urals Blend price and $24.33/bbl plus $3.89/bbl. This
means that with a price of $60, the export duty is
$27.08/bbl.
• Transport costs are relatively high at around $7.40/bbl -
this is because the oil has to be sent by rail. It is likely
to remain high because of a lack of pipeline capacity
and rolling stock capacity to move the oil.
• Finally, a corporation tax of 24 % has been applied on
the nominal profits made.
As we can see from the table given below the project is
robust using a 25 percent discount rate and with declining
oil prices, giving a net present value that ranges from a
low of $19.8 m to a high of $139.3m. If the new
favourable hydrocarbon fiscal regime is approved, then
the valuation will be considerably higher.
Table II: - Lukzskoye Field NPV (US$m)
Constant Declining
Proven Reserves
Disc Factor 10 % 42.31 32.31
15% 33.84 26.68
20% 28.19 22.72
25% 24.17 19.79
Proven, Probable & Possible (3P) Reserves
Disc Factor 10 % 105.57 69.64
15% 76.48 50.59
20% 57.47 37.85
25% 44.41 28.95
3P + Upside Reserves Potential
Disc Factor 10 % 139.25 91.46
15% 100.99 66.89
20% 75.84 50.31
25% 58.51 38.65
Sources: VSA Resources
Comparative Valuation
We have also compared Concorde with other listed
companies on the full LSE list, on AIM, and one company
on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Board. We can
see from the table given below that Concorde is backed
by 53 bbls of Proven and Probable (2P) crude oil reserves
per £100 market value, placing it just behind Dragon Oil,
the leader of the pack, with 59 bbls per £100 market value.
In addition, the market is assigning a value of £1.9/bbl for
its 2P reserves, the second lowest in our table.
10 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Table III: Hydrocarbon Reserves per £100 Market Value & Value assigned by Market for Company’s Reserve Base
Share Price Market Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon Value assigned by
p/share Capitalisation Prod. Reserves (m bbls Reserves per £100 market for Co.’s
(17.03.06) (£ millions) (boepd) of oil equivalent) Market cap. (bbls) reserve (£/bbl)
LSE - Full Listing
Burren 1023 1430 8140 119.3 8.3 12.0
Cairn Energy 2176 3477 30200 752 21.6 4.6
Dana Petroleum Plc 975 833.4 25000 124 14.9 6.7
Dragon Oil 213 1086 8385 641 59.0 1.7
Emerald Energy 260 145.6 883 11.8 8.1 12.3
JKX Oil & Gas 313 473.2 8022 56 11.8 8.5
Melrose Resources 373.5 293.9 2900 38.1 13.0 7.7
Premier Oil 909.5 743.5 35300 200 26.9 3.7
Soco International 1014 736.5 5400 72.5 9.8 10.2
Tullow Oil Plc 341 2208 53000 171 7.7 12.9
LSE - AIM
Caspian Energy 132.5 123.5 412 0.5 0.4 247.0
Circle oil 34.75 63.7 0 0 0.0 0.0
Desire petroleum 30.5 87.3 0 0 0.0 0.0
Global Energy Development 292.5 105.4 1100 19.6 18.6 5.4
Hardman Resources 79.5 540.2 1000 22.1 4.1 24.4
Sibir Energy 520 1035 70000 432.4 41.8 2.4
Urals Energy 365 307.7 5600 89.6 29.1 3.4
Victoria Oil & Gas 252.5 258.6 1800(e) 35 13.5 7.4
TSX Venture Board
Valkyries Petroleum Corp £ 6.5 340.2 4000 (e) 33.4 9.8 10.2
Concorde (current market 8.5 41 1100(e) 21.8 53.2 1.9
cap. + £25m est. fund raising)
Source: VSA Resources
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 11
There are a number of companies operating in the
Russian Federation and the FSU that could be compared
with Concorde. The closest is the Canadian Valkyries
Petroleum Corp. listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange
Venture Board with a market capitalisation of £340.2m.
Valkyries acquired from ZAO Pechoraneftegas a 50 %
stake in the Sotchemyu producing field, which is situated
40 kilometres away from Kadgerom, with gross reserves
of 27.6 m bbls. The oil quality at 29 API is inferior to that
produced at Luzskoye. Valkyries also holds 106 m bbls of
crude oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and approximately
10600 bbls in Texas. The Company holds total 2P reserves
of 33.4m, of which 22m bbls is in the Caspian Sea.
The Company’s Timan Pechora reserves of 11.4 m bbls
represent 34 % of the total reserves or £116m of the
company’s market capitalization. This means that the
market is assigning a value of £10.1/bbl to its Timan
Pechora reserves. If we we use the same value on
Concorde’s 2P reserves, then the Company can be
valued at £219.2m.
Other companies that could be compared with Concorde
are Urals Energy (UEN) and Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG).
UEN is an independent exploration and production
company that is listed on AIM, with a market capitalisation
of £365m. Its main assets are located in Sakhalin Island,
Timan-Pechora Basin, and the Republic of Udmurtia.
UEN has reported Proven and Probable reserves of 89.6
m barrels of oil equivalent, with current production of
5600 bpd. The majority of its proven reserves are in
the Okruzhnoye field on the eastern coast of Sakhalin
Island. Approximately half its production comes from
the Okruzhnoye field and from the Peschanoozerskoye
field located on the Kolguyev Island in the Barents Sea,
in the offshore extension of the Timan-Pechora Basin.
Approximately 50 percent of its Probable reserves are
found in its Nefedovskoye field in the Udmurtia Republic.
The Company expects to double its current production to
11,000 bpd after an investment programme of US$41m in
in-fill drilling, well workovers and recompletions and other
methods.
VOG is another comparable company to Concorde, which
is listed on AIM. VOG was established to acquire oil and
gas assets in Russia and Central Asia, getting a listing on
AIM in September 2004. It holds reserves of 1.15 bn boe,
which have been verified by DeGolyer & McNaughton,
the independent consultants, and consist mostly of
natural gas in its West Medvezhye field in Western
Siberia. The development of this large resource base
very much depends on gaining access to Gazprom’s gas-
gathering system at its giant Medvezhye field, and into
the export gas pipelines. VOG expects to produce 4400
bpd in 2009 from its Kemerkol oil field in Kazakhstan.
If we take the average current value that the market
assigns to the reserves held by UEN and VOG of
£5.4/bbl and apply it to Concorde’s reserves, then we
would expect Concorde to be valued at around
£117.7m.
Financials
We estimate that the Luzskoye field will be profitable
for the Company even if only the Proven reserves are
produced. It is clear, as can be seen from the table given
below, that using a low reserves base scenario that
Concorde would generate a $1.12/bbl profit. Under our
high reserves scenario, the profit per barrel rises to $3.85.
We have also assumed that the company takes on debt
of $50m to finance the development of the field.
Table IV: Estimated Profitability of PE US$/bbl
Proven Reserves 3P + Upside potential
Base (10.1m bbls) Reserves (45 m bbls)
Crude Oil Price 60.00 60.00
Transport costs 7.40 7.40
Mineral Resources Extraction Tax 9.90 9.90
Export Customs Duty 27.08 27.08
G&A 2.50 1.90
Operating Expenses 2.75 2.25
DDA 7.50 5.40
Interest 1.40 1.0
Pre-Tax 1.47 5.07
Tax 0.35 1.22
Net Income 1.12 3.85
Source: VSA Resources
We can see from the table given below that Concorde’s
revenue will increase significantly as production rises,
and we expect the Company to declare in 2007 a pre-tax
profit of $2.6m and will not pay any corporation taxes
because of the large pool of tax losses at PE that can be
offset against profits until 2009. Of greater significance
perhaps, is that the Company will be generating net
cash flow in 2008 after repaying part of the debt used
to develop the field. We expect Concorde to hold a net
cash balance of almost $3m at the end of 2008.
12 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Table V: Concorde Oil & Gas - Financials
Year-end 31 December 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e
$000s $000s $000s $000s
Profit and Loss
Revenue 0 8,300 53,900 125,700
Cost of sales 0 (7,800) (35,200) (71,100)
Gross profit (15) 500 18,700 54,600
EBITDA (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400
Depreciation 0 (1,300) (7,600) (16,700)
Operating profit (before GW and except.) (30) 500 18,700 54,700
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0
Exceptionals 0 0 0 0
Administrative expenses 15 (3,100) (5,400) (10,600)
Operating profit (15) (2,600) 13,300 44,100
Net interest 0 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600)
Effective interest rate on average net debt % 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Exceptionals 0 0 0 0
Profit before tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 35,400
Profit before tax (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 24,800
Tax 0 0 0 (2,976)
Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0
Profit after tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424
Profit after tax (FRS3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824
Minority interest 0 0 0 0
Adjustments for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0
Net income (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424
Net income (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824
Average number of shares outstanding (m) 182 182 182 182
Share options and others outstanding (m) 188 188 188 188
EPS - normalised (p) (0) (2) 4 18
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) (0) (1) 2 9
EPS - FRS 3 (p) (0) (4) 1 12
Dividend (p) 0 0 0 0
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 13
14 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Year-end 31 December
2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e
$000s $000s $000s $000s
Balance Sheet
Fixed assets 85 25,000 30,000 35,000
Intangible assets 85 5,000 5,000 5,000
Tangible assets 0 20,000 25,000 30,000
Investment in associates & JV's 0 0 0 0
Current assets 265 (10,100) (11,700) 16,600
Stocks 105 500 1,200 2,500
Debtors 80 5,000 7,500 8,000
Cash 80 (15,600) (20,400) 6,100
Other 0 0 0 0
Current liabilities 240 (12,500) (12,500) (12,500)
Creditors 240 (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
Tax and social security 0 0 0 0
Short term borrowings 0 (2,500) (2,500) (2,500)
Long term liabilities 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)
Long term borrowings 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)
Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0
Net assets 590 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100
Minority interest 145 0 0 0
Shareholders equity 735 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100
Year-end no of shares 133 182 182 182
Opening shareholders equity 95 735 (32,600) (19,200)
Net debt (80) 53,100 47,900 11,400
Net current assets 505 (22,600) (24,200) 4,100
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400
Net Interest 300 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600)
Tax 0 0 0 (2,976)
Capex 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000)
Acquisitions/disposals 0 (25,000) 0 0
Equity financing 2,295 35,000 0 0
Dividends 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Net Cash Flow 2,565 (26,700) (1,800) 50,824
Opening net debt/(cash) 0 (80) 53,100 47,900
HP finance leases initiated 0 0 0 0
Other 0 0 0 0
Closing net debt/(cash) (2,565) 26,620 54,900 (2,924)
Source: VSA Resources
Use of funds
The funds raised at the time of getting an AIM listing of
up to £25m will be used for the following purposes:
• To acquire Pechora Energy.
• To instigate an aggressive development programme.
• To evaluate and acquire other prospects in the region.
• Working capital purposes.
Dividend policy
Concorde does not expect to pay a dividend in the
foreseeable future. We expect that such a policy will be
reviewed in 2008 when the Company will be in a position
to pay a dividend if the situation warrants it.
Management
Concorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby,
two highly experienced former Texaco executives. The
management of the company is detailed below.
Board of Directors & Senior Advisors
LESLIE GOODMAN Non-Executive Chairman
Leslie has spent 30 years in the UK financial sector after
working as a Solicitor at Slaughter & May in the 1970s.
He was a Director in the Corporate Finance department
of Hill Samuel in the 1980s, moving to BZW in 1987 to
head the International M&A department. In 1991 he was
appointed Chief Executive of Jardine Lloyds Advisers Ltd.,
and in 1994 he was appointed Chief Executive of ACE
Ltd. He is currently Chairman of Viatel Holdings Ltd., a
telecoms carrier, and holds a number of other non-
executive directorships.
PETER HUGHES Chief Executive Officer
Peter has spent over 25 years in the oil industry, most
recently as Vice President of Contracts and Negotiations
for Texaco Exploration Worldwide Growth, a subsidiary of
Texaco Inc.
JOHN RIGBY Chief Operating Officer
John has over 20 years experience in the oil industry,
acquiring and managing assets for Texaco in various parts
of the world, including the Middle East and the FSU. John
holds a Doctorate in Geology from Cambridge University.
STEVEN JAFFE Acting Chief Financial Officer
Steven obtained an Accounting and Finance degree
from the London School of Economics, and has worked
at Hazlems Fenton, Chartered Accounts, since 1982
where he is currently Senior Equity Partner.
GRIGORY ARKADIEVICH GABRIELYANTS
Non-Executive Director
Grigory is a Professor of Geology who began his career
at the exploration group Kurakum before going on to
hold a number of positions in the Russian oil and gas
industry. He was Minister of Geology from 1989-1992
CHARLES HUSSEY Non-Executive Director
Former Capital Partner at McDermott Will & Emery.
His remit focused on tax and corporate issues, with
substantial experience in the FSU and more recently
the Russian Federation.
Senior Advisors
HAROLD ZIMMERMAN Senior Advisor
Harold has over 46 years of Fortune 500 corporate and
entrepreneurial senior level management experience in
international and domestic USA oil and gas operations.
Harold started his career with Texaco in 1981, becoming
Vice President, Exploration & Production, for the
company’s European Division which covered the former
Soviet Union between 1988-1992. In 1993 he established
Zimco Inc., a private company specialising in oil and gas
production and processing.
Major Shareholders
The major shareholders are given below:
Table VI: Concorde’s Major Shareholders (%)
Starvest Plc 37.4
Majedie 19.0
Peter Hughes 15.0
John Rigby 15.0
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 15
Industry Outlook
The main driver in the oil industry is the oil price, which is
currently around $60/bbl for Brent crude. Oil prices have
remained at these relatively high levels for the last 15
months, mainly because of strong demand driven by
economic growth, and more recently by the decline
in OPEC production. Nigerian production has fallen
by 500,000 bpd because of the activities of insurgents.
In addition, Iran and Venezuela can not meet their OPEC
quotas, Indonesia is in long term decline, and Iraq
continues to be plagued by terrorist attacks. This has
resulted in OPEC crude oil output declining from around
31.6 m bpd during the fourth quarter last year to current
levels of around 29 m bpd. There is, however, a view that
if world economic growth starts to slow down as a result
of a general increase in interest rates that oil prices could
weaken by between $5-10/bbl from current levels later in
the year. In spite of relatively high oil prices and record
earnings, the oil industry is going through a very difficult
period because it needs to replace its reserves in order
to remain in business. This means that companies such as
Concorde, with proven reserves and a production profile
which is likely to rocket upwards during the next 24
months, will benefit considerably and should be favoured
by the investment community.
16 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Background to Russian oil and gas industry
The Russian oil and gas industry is pivotal in the country’s
economy accounting for 25 % of GDP and 40 % of total
exports. The country’s fiscal and economic health is
therefore highly dependent on oil prices. It is estimated
that a 10 % rise in international oil prices adds 2.2 % to
GDP and increases tax revenues by 3 %.
Russia is an extremely important country to the energy
markets because it has the largest natural gas reserves in
the world, with 1694.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) equivalent
to almost 27 % of world gas reserves, and the eighth
largest crude oil reserves, with 72.3 billion barrels of crude
oil, equivalent to just over 6 % of world oil reserves. Russia
is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second
largest crude oil exporter in the world.
In 2004, the country produced 589.1billion cubic metres
of natural gas, equivalent to almost 22 % of the world’s
production that year. The country also produced 9.3 m
bpd, equivalent to 12 % of the world’s production that
year, behind Saudi Arabia, which pumped 10.6 m bpd.
Crude oil production reached a peak of 11.5 m bpd in
1988 but then declined steadily to 6.1 m bpd in 1996.
Since then production has increased steadily to 9.3 m
bpd in 2004, the latest figures contained in BP’s Annual
Statistical Review. It is estimated that production in 2005
averaged 9.5 m bpd.
Most of the increase in Russian production during the
present decade was from existing fields through the
use of enhanced oil recovery techniques, including
hydrofracture and horizontal drilling, with approximately
50 % of the rise attributable to Yukos (taken-over by
Rosneft in 2005), Sibneft and Surgutneftegaz. A clear
trend in Russia over recent decades has been the
deteriorating structure of the reserve base, with over
70 % of the reserves currently operating yielding low flow
rates. Ten years ago wells producing just under 200 bpd
accounted for 55 % of the total reserves in development.
Currently, 55 % of oil reserves are from oil wells that
produce less than 80 bpd. The depletion of existing
oil fields in Western Siberia and a lower reserve to
production rate means that Russia’s oil boom may be
followed by a sharp decline if no new discoveries are
made in the future. It is estimated that around 80 fields
account for over 60 % of the country’s remaining reserves.
The future of Russian oil production is linked directly to
making large discoveries through exploration drilling that
can then be developed. At current levels of production,
current reserves will be halved during the next 10 years
unless there is a significant increase in exploration
expenditure. In order to maintain current production, it
is estimated that around $328 bn needs to be invested
in the industry between 2006 and 2030. Most of this
investment will be made in developing new discoveries.
So far investment in exploration has been very low,
declining by 60 % between 1988 and 2001 and a further
30 % between 2001-2003. Some of the new large field
developments include Lukoil’s Caspian project at
Kurmangazy, the Sakhalin Island projects, the Shell
joint venture at West Salymskoye project, Lukoil/
ConocoPhillips’s Timan Pechora project, Rosneft/
Gasprom’s Prirazlomnoye project, and Rosneft’s
Vankorsoye and Komsomolskoye projects.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 17
Structure of the oil industry
Over 100 companies produce oil in Russia, but despite
their large number 90 % of production, equivalent to
7.2 m bpd, is produced by the ten largest vertically
integrated companies. Three major private companies
and one State-owned company, viz, Lukoil, TNK-BP,
Surgutneftegaz and Yukos, account for 66 % of production
and 57 % exports. The concentration of the industry is the
result of the huge merger movement in the 1990s.
Foreign investments
Foreign investment in the oil sector takes three forms:
1. Direct investment through a shareholding in Russian
oil companies
2. The creation of a joint venture with a Russian oil
company
3. The acquisition of an exploration and development
licence of a deposit through a Production Sharing
Agreement.
In 2000, foreign-owned companies such as BP,
ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Norsk
Hydro, Royal Dutch/Shell, Statoil, and TotalFinaElf
accounted for 6-7% of Russia's oil production. The
largest single investment was made by BP in 2003
when it paid $7bn to acquire 50 % of TNK from the
Alfa-Access/Renova Group. TNK-BP is the third largest
oil producer in Russia after Yukos (Rosneft) and Lukoil.
Hydrocarbon reserves
The vast majority of the country’s reserves are located
in Western Siberia, between the Ural Mountains and
the Central Siberian plateau. The Urals Federal District,
particularly in the Tyumen region dominates Russian oil
production, accounting for two-thirds of total oil output.
The Volga Federal District, with Tatarstan as its oil
centre, accounts for almost 25 % of production,
though significant amounts of oil is also produced in
Bashkortostan, Orenburg, Perm, and Samara. The North
West Federal District, with the Komi Republic at its
regional oil centre, accounts for 4% of the Russian
Federation’s oil output.
Oil exports
It is estimated that 55% of Russian oil is exported by sea,
40% through the Druzhba pipeline, some 5% by railway,
and for the past few years a very small amount by river
barge. The Russian oil industry will continue to suffer from
an export capacity constraint. There are two export
pipeline companies, Transneft for crude oil and
Transneftproduckt for oil products. By granting access to
these pipelines, the State is able to determine the export
capacity for each company. Access to the pipeline is
determined by production capacity of each company,
but only a maximum of 33 % of its production can be
exported. However, because of Russia’s lack of export
pipeline capacity, Transneft has set up a priority order
for companies, so that the amount exported by each
company is more dependent on its capacity for
negotiating with the State than its own production
capacity. Initially, Yukos and Lukoil were the greatest
beneficiaries because of the level of their reserves and
the amount of people employed.
The Baltic Pipeline System (BPS), with a 1.2 m bpd
capacity, was inaugurated in December 2001 transporting
crude oil from the West Siberian city of Kharyaga in
the Autonomous District of Arkhangellsk to a newly
completed port of Primorsk in the Russian Gulf of Finland.
The current capacity of Primorsk is 135 m bbls but this
is expected to rise to 375 – 525 m bbls by the end of the
decade. The BPS gives Russia a direct access to northern
European markets, reducing Russia’s dependence on
transit routes through Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
There are four oil ports in the White Sea, viz, Varandey,
Arkhangelsk, Vitino, and Murmansk. It is likely that other
Russian ports will be developed to export crude oil, in
particular at Kharyaga-Indiga and at Murmansk. It is likely
that a pipeline to Murmansk on the Barents Sea will be
built by Transneft, allowing a further 500,000 bpd of oil
exports to reach the USA via tankers within nine days,
much quicker than the six weeks it takes from the Persian
Gulf. Moreover, the construction of LNG facilities at
Murmansk and Arkhangelsk has also been suggested,
allowing natural gas exports to the USA.
The Timan Pechora region
The Timan-Pechora oil province, where the Luzskoye
field is located, spans the administrative regions of the
Republic of Komi and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug,
and extends into the Pechora Sea reaching Kolguyev
Island. There are currently 172 oilfields in the region with
an estimated reserve base of 15 bn bbls, although Lukoil
believes that this figure could double. The prolific Timan-
Pechora basin has attracted interest from such western
companies as TexacoChevron and ConocoPhillips
amongst others. Lukoil is planning to invest $5bn over the
next decade in the region, with the aim of making
the region the source of one-third of its total production.
Rosneft plans to produce about 40% of its output in the
region.
18 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
An Old Oil Producing Province
The presence of oil near Ukhta in the southwestern part of
the Timan-Pechora Basin Province was known as early as
1595, with thirty non-commercial shallow wells drilled in
the area between 1869 and 1917. As early as 1745 oil was
produced and refined by very primitive methods. Since
then over 3900 wells have been drilled in the region.
Interest in developing the Komi Republic’s oil reserves
increased in the 1930’s after several oil discoveries were
made near the town of Ukhta.
Major Source Rock
The primary source rocks of the basin are late Devonian,
known by the Russian name of Domanik, but oil is also
found in the Carboniferous and Early Permian layers. The
Domanik source rocks were deposited in 100-400 meter
water depths under reducing conditions with restricted
circulation and low sedimentation rates during a eustatic
highstand. The thickness of the deposits range from a few
metres to 500 metres. The Timan-Pechora hydrocarbons
range from high gravity, low sulphur and low resin oils,
with paraffin bases to low gravity, high sulphur and high
viscosity oils. Oil gravity varies from 11-62? API and
condensate gravity from 45-79 API. The oil produced at
the Luzskoye field is an excellent 40 API.
Regional governments
The Regional Governments play an important role in the
development of the oil industry now that the Central
government role has declined. Their main areas of
influence are taxation, employment protection and non-
payment for products by insolvent industries. It is in the
allocation of licences for exploration and development of
hydrocarbon deposits where the regional authorities have
their greatest power. Under the Russian Constitution the
Federal State grants ownership of the subsoil but the
development of the onshore hydrocarbons reserves in
shared equally between the Federal Government and the
Regional Authorities where the reserves are located.
The future
The Russian Ministry of Energy is forecasting that the
country's crude oil exports will climb to almost 6.1 m bpd
in 2010, but as we have seen exports of crude are
increasingly constrained by transport bottlenecks, making
Russian oil majors more restraint on exports of oil
products in the future. Unlike crude, oil products can be
economically transported to ports by rail, making their
transport less of a problem. The problem with Russian
exports of oil products is its generally low quality. The
country still lags behind in producing low sulphur motor
fuels, which are compulsory in the EU, and mainly exports
fuel oil for which demand is declining.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 19
S.W.O.T Analysis
➔ Good and experienced management
team, with extensive experience in
Russia and FSU
➔ Over 10 m bbls of proven reserves and
33 m bbls of Proven, Probable and
Possible reserves
➔ Independent export route
➔ Former Russian Minister of Geology
is a non-executive director
➔ Strong links with US trained Russian
drilling and field management
companies.
Strengths
➔ Management unknown to the UK
investment community
➔ Russia’s weak legal system and
extensive bureaucracy
➔ High transportation costs from field
because of the need to truck the oil
➔ High paraffin concentration limits sale
opportunities
➔ Heavy reliance on Rus-Oil for
management services.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
➔ High oil prices are expected to remain
for some time, leading to continuing
interest in the Oils sector
➔ Russia could become an attractive
hedge if instability in the Middle East
increases
➔ Sale of rail loading terminal services to
third parties
➔ Sale of Transneft export quotas can
generate additional revenues.
Threats
➔ High oil prices lead to a decline in
world economic growth and hence a
fall in oil consumption, thus lowering
the need to find large incremental
hydrocarbon reserves
➔ Large additional supplies of
hydrocarbon resources start flowing
from OPEC countries that open up
their industry to private capital
➔ Revocation of Luzskoye oilfield if the
Company fails to comply with licence
requirements
➔ Interference from Major Russian oil and
gas companies
➔ Increase in Rus-Oil management fees.
20 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Revenue Growth EBITDA Balance sheet strength
Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics
EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a ROCE 07e 74.4 Gearing 07e -286 %
EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a Avg ROCE 05-08e 46.5 Interest cover 07e 6.0
EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a ROE 07e -47.7 Stock turn 06e n/a
EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a Gross margin 07e 34.7 Debtor days 06e n/a
Sales CAGR 05-06e n/a Operating margin 07e 34.7 Creditor days 06e n/a
Principal shareholders % Management team
Starvest Plc 37.4 Non Executive Chairman: Leslie Goodman
Majedie 19 Chief Executive Officer: Peter Hughes
Peter Hughes 15 Chief Operations Officer: John Rigby
John Rigby 15 Acting Chief Financial Officer: Steven Jaffe
Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date Company details
AGM Reveley, Wheelers Lane, Smallfield, Surrey RH6 9PT
Trading update Phone +44 (0)1342 842 104
Interim results 31.08.06 Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104
Full results 19.12.06 www.concordeoilandgas.com
This research report has been prepared by VSA Resources
Limited, for which it has been paid a fee, as corporate
finance advisors and arrangers to Concorde Oil & Gas plc
and is solely for and directed at persons who have
professional experience in matters relating to investments
and who are Investment Professionals, as specified in
Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act
2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This research
report is exempt from the general restriction on the
communication of invitations or inducements to enter into
investment activity and has therefore not been approved
by an authorised person, as would otherwise be required
by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act
2000 (the "Act"). Persons who do not fall within the above
category should return this research report to VSA
Resources Limited, 43 London Wall, London, EC2M 5TF,
immediately. This research report is not intended to be
distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any
other class of persons. It is being supplied to you solely
for your information and may not be reproduced,
forwarded to any other person or published, in whole or
in part, for any purpose, without out prior written consent.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed
constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to
buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other
derivatives related to such securities.
The information and opinions contained in this research
report have been compiled or arrived at by VSA
Resources Limited (the "Company") from sources
believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made
as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All
opinions and estimates contained in the research report
constitute the Company's judgements as of the date of
the report and are subject to change without notice. The
information contained in the report is published for the
assistance of those persons defined above but it is not to
be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for
the exercise of the judgement of any reader.
The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for any
direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the
information contained herein. The company does not
make any representation to any reader of the research
report as to the suitability of any investment made in
connection with this report and readers must satisfy
themselves of the suitability in light of their own
understanding, appraisal of risk and reward, objectives,
experience and financial and operational resources.
The value of any companies or securities referred to
in this research report may rise as well as fall and sums
recovered may be less than those originally invested.
Any references to past performance of any companies
or investments referred to in this research report are not
indicative of their future performance.
The Company and/or its directors and/or employees may
have long or short positions in the securities mentioned
herein, or in options, futures and other derivative
instruments based on these securities or commodities.
Not all of the products recommended or discussed in
this research report may be regulated by the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 and the rules made for the
protection of investors by that Act will not apply to them.
If you are in any doubt about the investment to which this
report relates, you should consult a person authorised
and regulated by the Financial Services Authority who
specialises in advising on securities of the kind described.
The Company does and seeks to do business with the
companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors
should be aware that the Company may have a conflict of
interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. The
analyst who prepared this report has not and will not
receive any compensation for providing a specific
recommendation or view in this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
The information in this report is not intended to be
published or made available to any person in the United
Sates of America (USA) or Canada or any jurisdiction
where to do so would result in contravention of any
applicable laws or regulations. Accordingly, if it is
prohibited to make such information available in your
jurisdiction or to you (by reason of your nationality,
residence or otherwise) it is not directed at you.
VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the
Financial Services Authority
IMPORTANT NOTICE
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e
US$m
US$m
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e
%
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 21
NOTES
22 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
NOTES
For further information please contact
Concorde Oil & Gas plc
Reveley
Wheelers Lane
Smallfield
Surrey RH6 9PT
Tel +44 (0)1342 842 104
Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104
www.concordeoilandgas.com
phughes@concordeoilandgas.com
jrigby@concordeoilandgas.com
VSA Resources
43 London Wall
London EC2M 5TF
Telephone +44 (0)20 7628 3989
Fax: +44 (0)20 7920 0563
bmcbeth@vsaresources.com
www.vsaresources.com
© VSA Resources Ltd
VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority
and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

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Concorde Research Note March 2006

  • 1. RESEARCH REPORT Concorde Oil & Gas plc March 2006
  • 2. VSA Resources is committed to providing objective research. This report has been commissioned by Concorde Oil & Gas plc and is therefore unlikely to be perceived as objective. Your attention is further drawn to the disclaimer at the end of this research report.
  • 3. Investment Summary: A bright prospect beckons Concorde is acquiring Pechora Energy, a Russian company, which holds the licence for oil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil field in the Timan-Pechora Basin of the Komi Republic, with 33 m barrels (bbls) of 3P reserves, which have been certified by Miller & Lents of Houston, Texas. The untested further upside potential of the field is separately estimated at 12 m bbls. Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd) but this is expected to rise significantly once Concorde starts developing the field later this year. We estimate that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could be achieved in 2010. We expect positive cash flow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012. Further production is expected to be added when a number of identified, currently ‘stranded’ oil fields in the area, are acquired. Rail Terminal Its wholly-controlled export rail terminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, which can be doubled with a relatively small outlay, allows the Company great flexibility in the way it can get its oil to market. It is not dependent on Transneft and the capacity constraints that currently affect the Russian pipeline system. Fund Raising At the time of its admission on AIM, Concorde is raising up to £25m in equity finance to be used in (a) acquiring Pechora Energy; (b) to shoot 3D Seismic on the field; (c) to drill a number of development wells; (d) to evaluate and acquire other prospects in the region; and, (e) for working capital purposes. Valuation We estimate that the value of Concorde, assuming all reserves are developed, a declining and constant oil price, high transport costs and onerous export duties, with a 10 % discount factor to be between £52.6m - £80.0 million. This will increase once the proposed fiscal regime for the oil industry is approved by the Dumas. In addition, if we use the value that the stock market is assigning to the Proven and Probable reserves of certain companies that operate in the Russian Federation, then Concorde’s valuation is much higher at between £118m - 219m. Year End Revenue (£’m) PBT* (£m) EPS*(p) DPS (p) PE (x) Yield (%) 2005a 0 -0.015 n/a 0 n/a 0 2006e 8.3 -7.4 n/a 0 n/a 0 2007e 53.9 2.6 n/a 0 n/a 0 2008e 125.7 21.8 n/a 0 n/a 0 Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding goodwill amortisation and exceptional items Admission to AIM and acquisition of exciting hydrcarbon assets in the Timan- Pechora basin of Russia Concorde Oil & Gas plc Price 9p Market Cap £16.4m SHARE DETAILS CODE CDE LISTING Ofex SECTOR Speciality & other finance SHARES IN ISSUE 182m PRICE 52 weeks High Low 15.5p 2.5p BALANCE SHEET Debt/Equity (%) 0 NAV (£m) 80 - 221 (Net borrowings)/Cash (£m) 0.2 BUSINESS GEOGRAPHY (based on revenues) UK EUROPE US OTHER 0% 0% 0% 100 % ANALYST Brian McBeth 020 7628 3989 bmcbeth@vsaresources.com SALES Neil Pidgeon 020 7628 3989 npidgeon@vsaresources.com Since it was floated on Ofex last September, Concorde has evaluated a significant number of potential hydrocarbon deals in the Russian Federation and the FSU. With the acquisition of Pechora Energy, Concorde is set to become a relatively large crude oil producer over the next 36 months. 2005 2006 15.00 8.00 0.62 S N J M
  • 4. 4 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Investment summary: A Russian Play Fasten your seat belts – steep share take-off Concorde was founded in 2005 by Peter Hughes and John Rigby, two former Texaco executives with great experience in Russia, to acquire attractive, producing and near producing assets in the Russian Federation and the FSU. The Company was floated on Ofex at the end of September 2005, raising £190,000 net of expenses, which funded the Company’s initial evaluation programme. In December 2005, the Company raised a further £1 m to evaluate in depth possible hydrocarbon deals in the Russian Federation and the FSU. After an exhaustive search, Concorde settled on acquiring Pechora Energy (PE) in the Komi Republic with its producing Luzskoye field with currently Proven, Probable and Possible reserves of 33 m bbls that have been verified by Miller and Lents. The field could contain a further 12 m bbls of recoverable reserves, for a total of 45 m bbls. Conservative valuation with significant upside We have modelled the Luzskoye field using a range of reserves from Proven (10 m bbls) to Proven, Probable, Possible and Upside potential (45 m bbls), and a constant and declining oil price scenario with a starting price of $60/bbl. We have also assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % of production is exported with the rest sold to the domestic market. A starting Oil Export Duty of $27.08/bbl. A Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of 16.5 % from January 1, 2007. Transport costs are relatively high at around $7.40/bbl because the oil has to be sent by rail. It is likely to remain high because of a lack of pipeline capacity and rolling stock capacity to move the oil. Finally, a corporation tax of 24 % has been applied on the nominal profits made. We have run a number of sensitivities using various discount factors that range from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oil prices and declining oil prices. The project is robust even at a 25 percent discount rate and with declining oil prices. Challenges of operating in Russia The Company faces three main challenges: (1) To develop and operate the field, especially using horizontal drilling techniques. Although Russia was the first country to drill horizontal wells, the level of expertise of the drilling crews in this particular discipline is generally low. (2) To maintain strict cost discipline. There is a general price escalation in the cost of drilling and completing wells worldwide, and transport costs, and Russia is no exception. This is likely to escalate as activity in the area increases over the next few years. (3) If deemed applicable, a paraffin separator plant could take longer to construct than expected because it has to be imported into the country. The possibility of the oil price weakening is always a fundamental point of concern as it is the main driver in the sector, but this is one area where we do not expect any weakness for some years to come. Positive cash flow in 2008 We estimate that the Luzskoye field is profitable at current crude oil prices, even when producing only the Proven reserves. It is more profitable when the Probable and Possible reserves are produced, generating a profit of $3.85/bbl. Of greater significance perhaps is that the Company will be generating positive net cash flow in 2008 after repaying part of the debt used to develop the field. We expect Concorde to have net cash balances of just under $3.0 m at the end of 2008.
  • 5. History Concorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby, two former Texaco executives with great experience in Russia, in 2005 to acquire attractive assets in the Russian Federation and the FSU. The Company was floated on Ofex at the end of September 2005, raising £190,000 net of expenses, which funded the Company’s initial evaluation programme. In December 2005, the Company raised a further £1 m to evaluate in depth possible hydrocarbon deals in the Russian Federation and the FSU. The Acquisition of Pecherskaia Energeticheskaia Compania (PE) After an exhaustive search, Concorde settled on acquiring for $25m the entire equity capital of Pecherskaia Energeticheskaia Compania (Pechora Energy or PE), a Russian company established in 1998, and which holds the licence for oil and gas production at the Luzskoye oil field in the Timan-Pechora Basin of the Komi Republic. The total oil in place at the Luzskoye field is calculated at over 100 m bbls, with Proven, Probable and Possible reserves of 33 m bbls. As part of the purchase, Concorde is also acquiring a recently operational rail terminal from which to export its hydrocarbon production. Additionally, PE owns a maintenance base at Kadgerom, the nearest town to the field, a fleet of trucks, a drilling rig and other real estate facilities. The Luzskoye Field Miller and Lents Ltd., a leading independent reserves estimator with significant experience in Russia, has calculated that the Luzskoye field has Proven (P1) reserves of 10.1 m bbls, with a Probable (P2) reserves of 11.7 m bbls and Possible (P3) reserves of 11.3 m bbls. Total oil in place is calculated at over 100 m bbls. The untested, further upside potential of the field is separately calculated at 12 m bbls recoverable by GeoServis, a highly experienced Moscow-based Geological Consultancy. Crude oil production is currently 250 barrels per day (bpd) but this is expected to rise significantly once Concorde starts investing in the field later this year. We estimate that peak production of just under 12000 bpd could be achieved in 2010. It should be noted that by acquiring PE, Concorde owns 100 % of PE’s production, unlike other companies with production sharing contracts. The acquisition of PE is expected to cost Concorde $20- 25m, with a guaranteed initial capital expenditure on the field of at least $10m in the first two years. The guarantee is not an onerous one because it is clear that the capital expenditure involved in developing the field is greater than $10m. Concorde will pursue an aggressive development plan, drilling a number of horizontal wells, which together with vertical wells are expected to deplete the reservoir in the most efficient manner. As a result, we expect positive cash flow in 2008 reaching a peak in year 2012. Further Reserves Further production is expected to be added when a number of identified, currently ‘stranded’, oil fields in the area, are acquired. Its wholly-controlled export rail terminal, with a current capacity of 16000 bpd, and which can double with a relatively small outlay, allows the Company great flexibility in the way it gets its oil to market as it is not dependent on Transneft and the capacity constraints that currently affect the Russian pipeline system. Management and Operational Centres The management of PE is supervised by Rus-Oil, a company registered in Altaysky Kray, which also supervises drilling and markets the Company’s crude oil. It is understood that Rus-Oil has a contract to drill 11 oil wells at a total cost of around $10 m. Apart from the Luzskoye field, PE also owns a maintenance base at Kadgerom, some 40 kilomtres away from the field, a fleet of trucks and transport vehicles, a small work-over drilling rig and other real estate facilities. Concorde will also acquire as part of the purchase price a rail terminal from which to export its hydrocarbon production. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 5 The road to Kadgerom
  • 6. The Luzskoye Field 6 The main administrative office of PE is in Pechora City, some 200 kms away, where it employs 20 office staff. In the Luzskoye field and Kadgerom town, the Company employs a further 69 people, made up mainly of two 30- man drilling crews on rotation. At the field headquarters, there are heated workshops, garages and storage areas to support field activities along with trucks, transport vehicles, bulldozers and fire control services. There are also storage facilities for 4000 bbls of oil together with storage facilities at PE’s Kadgerom rail terminal for approximately 3500 bbls, of which a third is kept underground. The Luzskoye Field A. RESERVES The field consists of up to seven Devonian age reservoirs, which have tested high grade, low sulphur 40 API oil, with a paraffin content variously reported as between 13 % - 16%. The geological structure is a simple one, with three, vertically stacked reservoir zones, facilitating a relatively simple development. The field extends over an area of just under 21 square kilometres, with the producing horizons found at depths that range from 1700 - 2200 metres. The Proven, Probable and Possible reserves detailed in the Miller & Lents report of just under 33 m bbls are contained in five reservoirs: CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH TheThe LuzskoyeLuzskoye FieldField Luzskoye Field Source: Concorde Oil & Gas
  • 7. Table I: Luzskoye Field Proven, Probable & Possible Reserves, March 2006 (m bbls) Reserves Oil Gas Proved 10.06 0 Probable 11.66 0 Possible 11.25 0 TOTAL 32.97 0 Source: Miller & Lents The reserves stated above were verified by Miller & Lents of Houston, Texas, using data obtained from the All Russia Research Geological Oil Institute (VNIGNI). Additionally, a further two possible reservoir horizons have been identified in the Devonian, with untested estimated recoverable reserves of around 12 m bbls as calculated by GeoServis. The location of the field in the Komi Republic is given on the map on page 6. The licence to develop and operate the field expires in 2014, along with most other licences in the area, but it is confidently expected that an extension will be granted as long as the field is developed in a competent manner. B. PRODUCTION HISTORY Since 1965, all four wells drilled on the field have been oil discoveries, with cumulative production up to the beginning of this year of around 141,000 bbls. Over the past two years production from the field averaged 103 bpd, utilising various zones in different wells to accommodate work on surface facilities but is currently producing around 250 bpd from well No. 201, shown below, from one reservoir zone after an electric submersible pump was installed. Current production is severely limited by ‘poor boy’ surface infrastructure but with improved drilling and completion techniques, and stimulation of the wells, we expect production to rise to around 300 bpd or higher. Clearly, this does not take into account the significant potential from other tested reservoir zones. In addition, one of the reservoir zones is planned to be depleted by the use of horizontal wells, improving production rates substantially from the standard vertical wells used at the moment. Two further wells have recently been re-completed, with well No. 302, shown below, expected to come on-stream within the next month. In mid-April/May, a new well is to be drilled at what is deemed the crestal location of the structure. Well 201 – the current producing well VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 7 Drilling Well 302 at the end of February
  • 8. PE has the operatorship of four potential production wells on the field, one of which is currently leased from LUKOIL and which accounted for 75 % of total production of just over 31,000 bbls in 2005. Although the oil produced is extremely sweet (sulphur 0.2%), and in great demand, it does contain a reported 13 % -16 % paraffin. This means that the oil is sold on average at a 15 % discount to the Urals Blend marker and a 30 % discount to the domestic price. PE’s crude oil production is trucked from the field to the Company’s own rail terminal of Kadgerom, which is situated 40 kilometres away. PE maintains 20 kilometres of the road as well as a pontoon bridge. The use of the railroad allows the Company to by-pass the limit of 33 % imposed by Transneft, the state-owned pipeline company, for transporting the oil. It is likely that in 2006, all production will be sold to the Afipsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region of Russia as domestic oil sales. C. DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF THE FIELD The development plan included in the Miller & Lents report is highly conservative and follows closely the plan set out by VNIGNI in 2004. The plan depletes the reserves over 18 years and calls for 212 wells to be drilled, including 80 recompletions, using a 500-metre spacing between wells. It is likely that Concorde will shoot an extensive 3D- Seismic programme over the field to determine with greater accuracy the distribution of the producing wells. The spacing needed to deplete the field is likely to be between 600 metres to 800 metres, reducing considerably the capital needed to develop the field. In addition, one reservoir in particular is likely to be depleted by drilling a number of horizontal wells. The cost of drilling a vertical well and a horizontal well is estimated at under $1m and just under $2m respectively. In addition, Concorde will evaluate the applicability of a paraffin separation plant to the project by running a test facility and full chemical analysis of the oil. It is probable, however, that at the end of the test that a paraffin separation unit, costing an estimated $3-5m, will be installed at the field headquarters to separate out the paraffin, increasing considerably the marketability of the oil. Finally, an oil-gathering pipeline on the field is likely to be installed at a cost of $1 m as well as a 40-km pipeline to the rail terminal, which would cost $3m. The intra-field pipeline will make it easier to get the oil out during the summer months and save on the maintenance costs of the access roads. The chart given below shows the production profile that we would expect from the fully developed field. On the conservative Miller & Lents development plan, peak 8 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Source: Concorde Oil & Gas Luzskoye Field: E-W Geological Cross-section
  • 9. production of just over 8000 bpd is reached in 2013. On our more aggressive development plan, we have production peaking at just under 12,000 bpd in 2010, assuming 45m bbls are produced. D. THE RAIL TERMINAL AT KADGEROM The Company’s rail terminal has just become operational at a cost of just over $1m. The current loading facility can handle five 450 bbls rail cars but there is enough expansion room for a further 15 rail cars, giving total export capacity of 9000 bbls per delivery. The advantage of owning a rail terminal is that 100 % of the Company’s oil can be exported out of the country because there is no limitation to how much oil is exported using the rail system. Transneft, the oil pipeline operator, imposes a 33 % limit on the total produced by a company that can be exported using its pipeline system. In addition, by such a rail terminal Concorde can develop ‘stranded’ oilfields in the region much faster than its competitors, given that there is an export route available to deliver the oil to market. The oil can be sent by rail to either the Baltic ports, in particular Primorsk, or to Tikhorestskaya in Southern Russia, near to the port of Novorossiysk. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 9 Source: Miller & Lents and VSA estimates Concorde Oil's Kadgerom Rail Terminal Concorde’s possible production profile CPR VSA 3P Production VSA 3P+Upside 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
  • 10. Sensitivities: three main challenges The Company faces three main challenges: 1. To develop and operate the field, especially using horizontal drilling techniques. Although Russia was the first country to drill horizontal wells, the level of expertise of the drilling crews in this particular discipline is generally low. 2. To maintain strict cost discipline. There is a general price escalation in the cost of drilling and completing worldwide, as well as in transport costs, and Russia is no exception. This is likely to escalate as activity in the area increases over the next few years. 3. If deemed applicable, a proposed paraffin separator plant could take longer to construct than expected because it has to be imported into the country. The possibility of the oil price weakening is always a fundamental point of concern as it is the main driver in the sector, but this is one area where we do not expect any weakness for some years to come. Valuation We have modelled the Luzskoye field using Proven reserves, 3P Reserves, and 3P + Upside potential reserves and a constant and declining oil price scenario. We have assumed Proven reserves of 10.1 m bbls and a high reserve level of 33 m bbls, with a further 12 m bbls of upside potential in our most optimistic scenario. We have also assumed that from the end of 2007, 70 % of the production is exported with the rest sold to the domestic market. We have also used various discount factors that range from 10 % to 25 % and under constant oil prices and declining oil prices that fall to $21/bbl. In our model, we have made the following assumptions: • a starting oil price of $60/bbl • a Mineral Resources Extraction Tax of 16.5 % from January 1, 2007. • The Oil Export Duty is calculated using the following formula: 65 % of the difference between the average Urals Blend price and $24.33/bbl plus $3.89/bbl. This means that with a price of $60, the export duty is $27.08/bbl. • Transport costs are relatively high at around $7.40/bbl - this is because the oil has to be sent by rail. It is likely to remain high because of a lack of pipeline capacity and rolling stock capacity to move the oil. • Finally, a corporation tax of 24 % has been applied on the nominal profits made. As we can see from the table given below the project is robust using a 25 percent discount rate and with declining oil prices, giving a net present value that ranges from a low of $19.8 m to a high of $139.3m. If the new favourable hydrocarbon fiscal regime is approved, then the valuation will be considerably higher. Table II: - Lukzskoye Field NPV (US$m) Constant Declining Proven Reserves Disc Factor 10 % 42.31 32.31 15% 33.84 26.68 20% 28.19 22.72 25% 24.17 19.79 Proven, Probable & Possible (3P) Reserves Disc Factor 10 % 105.57 69.64 15% 76.48 50.59 20% 57.47 37.85 25% 44.41 28.95 3P + Upside Reserves Potential Disc Factor 10 % 139.25 91.46 15% 100.99 66.89 20% 75.84 50.31 25% 58.51 38.65 Sources: VSA Resources Comparative Valuation We have also compared Concorde with other listed companies on the full LSE list, on AIM, and one company on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Board. We can see from the table given below that Concorde is backed by 53 bbls of Proven and Probable (2P) crude oil reserves per £100 market value, placing it just behind Dragon Oil, the leader of the pack, with 59 bbls per £100 market value. In addition, the market is assigning a value of £1.9/bbl for its 2P reserves, the second lowest in our table. 10 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
  • 11. Table III: Hydrocarbon Reserves per £100 Market Value & Value assigned by Market for Company’s Reserve Base Share Price Market Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon 2P Hydrocarbon Value assigned by p/share Capitalisation Prod. Reserves (m bbls Reserves per £100 market for Co.’s (17.03.06) (£ millions) (boepd) of oil equivalent) Market cap. (bbls) reserve (£/bbl) LSE - Full Listing Burren 1023 1430 8140 119.3 8.3 12.0 Cairn Energy 2176 3477 30200 752 21.6 4.6 Dana Petroleum Plc 975 833.4 25000 124 14.9 6.7 Dragon Oil 213 1086 8385 641 59.0 1.7 Emerald Energy 260 145.6 883 11.8 8.1 12.3 JKX Oil & Gas 313 473.2 8022 56 11.8 8.5 Melrose Resources 373.5 293.9 2900 38.1 13.0 7.7 Premier Oil 909.5 743.5 35300 200 26.9 3.7 Soco International 1014 736.5 5400 72.5 9.8 10.2 Tullow Oil Plc 341 2208 53000 171 7.7 12.9 LSE - AIM Caspian Energy 132.5 123.5 412 0.5 0.4 247.0 Circle oil 34.75 63.7 0 0 0.0 0.0 Desire petroleum 30.5 87.3 0 0 0.0 0.0 Global Energy Development 292.5 105.4 1100 19.6 18.6 5.4 Hardman Resources 79.5 540.2 1000 22.1 4.1 24.4 Sibir Energy 520 1035 70000 432.4 41.8 2.4 Urals Energy 365 307.7 5600 89.6 29.1 3.4 Victoria Oil & Gas 252.5 258.6 1800(e) 35 13.5 7.4 TSX Venture Board Valkyries Petroleum Corp £ 6.5 340.2 4000 (e) 33.4 9.8 10.2 Concorde (current market 8.5 41 1100(e) 21.8 53.2 1.9 cap. + £25m est. fund raising) Source: VSA Resources VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 11
  • 12. There are a number of companies operating in the Russian Federation and the FSU that could be compared with Concorde. The closest is the Canadian Valkyries Petroleum Corp. listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange Venture Board with a market capitalisation of £340.2m. Valkyries acquired from ZAO Pechoraneftegas a 50 % stake in the Sotchemyu producing field, which is situated 40 kilometres away from Kadgerom, with gross reserves of 27.6 m bbls. The oil quality at 29 API is inferior to that produced at Luzskoye. Valkyries also holds 106 m bbls of crude oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and approximately 10600 bbls in Texas. The Company holds total 2P reserves of 33.4m, of which 22m bbls is in the Caspian Sea. The Company’s Timan Pechora reserves of 11.4 m bbls represent 34 % of the total reserves or £116m of the company’s market capitalization. This means that the market is assigning a value of £10.1/bbl to its Timan Pechora reserves. If we we use the same value on Concorde’s 2P reserves, then the Company can be valued at £219.2m. Other companies that could be compared with Concorde are Urals Energy (UEN) and Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG). UEN is an independent exploration and production company that is listed on AIM, with a market capitalisation of £365m. Its main assets are located in Sakhalin Island, Timan-Pechora Basin, and the Republic of Udmurtia. UEN has reported Proven and Probable reserves of 89.6 m barrels of oil equivalent, with current production of 5600 bpd. The majority of its proven reserves are in the Okruzhnoye field on the eastern coast of Sakhalin Island. Approximately half its production comes from the Okruzhnoye field and from the Peschanoozerskoye field located on the Kolguyev Island in the Barents Sea, in the offshore extension of the Timan-Pechora Basin. Approximately 50 percent of its Probable reserves are found in its Nefedovskoye field in the Udmurtia Republic. The Company expects to double its current production to 11,000 bpd after an investment programme of US$41m in in-fill drilling, well workovers and recompletions and other methods. VOG is another comparable company to Concorde, which is listed on AIM. VOG was established to acquire oil and gas assets in Russia and Central Asia, getting a listing on AIM in September 2004. It holds reserves of 1.15 bn boe, which have been verified by DeGolyer & McNaughton, the independent consultants, and consist mostly of natural gas in its West Medvezhye field in Western Siberia. The development of this large resource base very much depends on gaining access to Gazprom’s gas- gathering system at its giant Medvezhye field, and into the export gas pipelines. VOG expects to produce 4400 bpd in 2009 from its Kemerkol oil field in Kazakhstan. If we take the average current value that the market assigns to the reserves held by UEN and VOG of £5.4/bbl and apply it to Concorde’s reserves, then we would expect Concorde to be valued at around £117.7m. Financials We estimate that the Luzskoye field will be profitable for the Company even if only the Proven reserves are produced. It is clear, as can be seen from the table given below, that using a low reserves base scenario that Concorde would generate a $1.12/bbl profit. Under our high reserves scenario, the profit per barrel rises to $3.85. We have also assumed that the company takes on debt of $50m to finance the development of the field. Table IV: Estimated Profitability of PE US$/bbl Proven Reserves 3P + Upside potential Base (10.1m bbls) Reserves (45 m bbls) Crude Oil Price 60.00 60.00 Transport costs 7.40 7.40 Mineral Resources Extraction Tax 9.90 9.90 Export Customs Duty 27.08 27.08 G&A 2.50 1.90 Operating Expenses 2.75 2.25 DDA 7.50 5.40 Interest 1.40 1.0 Pre-Tax 1.47 5.07 Tax 0.35 1.22 Net Income 1.12 3.85 Source: VSA Resources We can see from the table given below that Concorde’s revenue will increase significantly as production rises, and we expect the Company to declare in 2007 a pre-tax profit of $2.6m and will not pay any corporation taxes because of the large pool of tax losses at PE that can be offset against profits until 2009. Of greater significance perhaps, is that the Company will be generating net cash flow in 2008 after repaying part of the debt used to develop the field. We expect Concorde to hold a net cash balance of almost $3m at the end of 2008. 12 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
  • 13. Table V: Concorde Oil & Gas - Financials Year-end 31 December 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e $000s $000s $000s $000s Profit and Loss Revenue 0 8,300 53,900 125,700 Cost of sales 0 (7,800) (35,200) (71,100) Gross profit (15) 500 18,700 54,600 EBITDA (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400 Depreciation 0 (1,300) (7,600) (16,700) Operating profit (before GW and except.) (30) 500 18,700 54,700 Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 Administrative expenses 15 (3,100) (5,400) (10,600) Operating profit (15) (2,600) 13,300 44,100 Net interest 0 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600) Effective interest rate on average net debt % 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals 0 0 0 0 Profit before tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 35,400 Profit before tax (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 24,800 Tax 0 0 0 (2,976) Adjustment to tax for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0 Profit after tax (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424 Profit after tax (FRS3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 Adjustments for normalised earnings 0 0 0 0 Net income (norm) (30) (4,300) 8,000 32,424 Net income (FRS 3) (15) (7,400) 2,600 21,824 Average number of shares outstanding (m) 182 182 182 182 Share options and others outstanding (m) 188 188 188 188 EPS - normalised (p) (0) (2) 4 18 EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p) (0) (1) 2 9 EPS - FRS 3 (p) (0) (4) 1 12 Dividend (p) 0 0 0 0 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 13
  • 14. 14 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Year-end 31 December 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e $000s $000s $000s $000s Balance Sheet Fixed assets 85 25,000 30,000 35,000 Intangible assets 85 5,000 5,000 5,000 Tangible assets 0 20,000 25,000 30,000 Investment in associates & JV's 0 0 0 0 Current assets 265 (10,100) (11,700) 16,600 Stocks 105 500 1,200 2,500 Debtors 80 5,000 7,500 8,000 Cash 80 (15,600) (20,400) 6,100 Other 0 0 0 0 Current liabilities 240 (12,500) (12,500) (12,500) Creditors 240 (10,000) (10,000) (10,000) Tax and social security 0 0 0 0 Short term borrowings 0 (2,500) (2,500) (2,500) Long term liabilities 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000) Long term borrowings 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000) Other long term liabilities 0 0 0 0 Net assets 590 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100 Minority interest 145 0 0 0 Shareholders equity 735 (32,600) (19,200) 24,100 Year-end no of shares 133 182 182 182 Opening shareholders equity 95 735 (32,600) (19,200) Net debt (80) 53,100 47,900 11,400 Net current assets 505 (22,600) (24,200) 4,100 Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow (30) 1,800 26,300 71,400 Net Interest 300 (3,500) (3,100) (2,600) Tax 0 0 0 (2,976) Capex 0 (35,000) (25,000) (15,000) Acquisitions/disposals 0 (25,000) 0 0 Equity financing 2,295 35,000 0 0 Dividends 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Net Cash Flow 2,565 (26,700) (1,800) 50,824 Opening net debt/(cash) 0 (80) 53,100 47,900 HP finance leases initiated 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 Closing net debt/(cash) (2,565) 26,620 54,900 (2,924) Source: VSA Resources
  • 15. Use of funds The funds raised at the time of getting an AIM listing of up to £25m will be used for the following purposes: • To acquire Pechora Energy. • To instigate an aggressive development programme. • To evaluate and acquire other prospects in the region. • Working capital purposes. Dividend policy Concorde does not expect to pay a dividend in the foreseeable future. We expect that such a policy will be reviewed in 2008 when the Company will be in a position to pay a dividend if the situation warrants it. Management Concorde was founded by Peter Hughes and John Rigby, two highly experienced former Texaco executives. The management of the company is detailed below. Board of Directors & Senior Advisors LESLIE GOODMAN Non-Executive Chairman Leslie has spent 30 years in the UK financial sector after working as a Solicitor at Slaughter & May in the 1970s. He was a Director in the Corporate Finance department of Hill Samuel in the 1980s, moving to BZW in 1987 to head the International M&A department. In 1991 he was appointed Chief Executive of Jardine Lloyds Advisers Ltd., and in 1994 he was appointed Chief Executive of ACE Ltd. He is currently Chairman of Viatel Holdings Ltd., a telecoms carrier, and holds a number of other non- executive directorships. PETER HUGHES Chief Executive Officer Peter has spent over 25 years in the oil industry, most recently as Vice President of Contracts and Negotiations for Texaco Exploration Worldwide Growth, a subsidiary of Texaco Inc. JOHN RIGBY Chief Operating Officer John has over 20 years experience in the oil industry, acquiring and managing assets for Texaco in various parts of the world, including the Middle East and the FSU. John holds a Doctorate in Geology from Cambridge University. STEVEN JAFFE Acting Chief Financial Officer Steven obtained an Accounting and Finance degree from the London School of Economics, and has worked at Hazlems Fenton, Chartered Accounts, since 1982 where he is currently Senior Equity Partner. GRIGORY ARKADIEVICH GABRIELYANTS Non-Executive Director Grigory is a Professor of Geology who began his career at the exploration group Kurakum before going on to hold a number of positions in the Russian oil and gas industry. He was Minister of Geology from 1989-1992 CHARLES HUSSEY Non-Executive Director Former Capital Partner at McDermott Will & Emery. His remit focused on tax and corporate issues, with substantial experience in the FSU and more recently the Russian Federation. Senior Advisors HAROLD ZIMMERMAN Senior Advisor Harold has over 46 years of Fortune 500 corporate and entrepreneurial senior level management experience in international and domestic USA oil and gas operations. Harold started his career with Texaco in 1981, becoming Vice President, Exploration & Production, for the company’s European Division which covered the former Soviet Union between 1988-1992. In 1993 he established Zimco Inc., a private company specialising in oil and gas production and processing. Major Shareholders The major shareholders are given below: Table VI: Concorde’s Major Shareholders (%) Starvest Plc 37.4 Majedie 19.0 Peter Hughes 15.0 John Rigby 15.0 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 15
  • 16. Industry Outlook The main driver in the oil industry is the oil price, which is currently around $60/bbl for Brent crude. Oil prices have remained at these relatively high levels for the last 15 months, mainly because of strong demand driven by economic growth, and more recently by the decline in OPEC production. Nigerian production has fallen by 500,000 bpd because of the activities of insurgents. In addition, Iran and Venezuela can not meet their OPEC quotas, Indonesia is in long term decline, and Iraq continues to be plagued by terrorist attacks. This has resulted in OPEC crude oil output declining from around 31.6 m bpd during the fourth quarter last year to current levels of around 29 m bpd. There is, however, a view that if world economic growth starts to slow down as a result of a general increase in interest rates that oil prices could weaken by between $5-10/bbl from current levels later in the year. In spite of relatively high oil prices and record earnings, the oil industry is going through a very difficult period because it needs to replace its reserves in order to remain in business. This means that companies such as Concorde, with proven reserves and a production profile which is likely to rocket upwards during the next 24 months, will benefit considerably and should be favoured by the investment community. 16 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Background to Russian oil and gas industry The Russian oil and gas industry is pivotal in the country’s economy accounting for 25 % of GDP and 40 % of total exports. The country’s fiscal and economic health is therefore highly dependent on oil prices. It is estimated that a 10 % rise in international oil prices adds 2.2 % to GDP and increases tax revenues by 3 %. Russia is an extremely important country to the energy markets because it has the largest natural gas reserves in the world, with 1694.4 trillion cubic feet (TCF) equivalent to almost 27 % of world gas reserves, and the eighth largest crude oil reserves, with 72.3 billion barrels of crude oil, equivalent to just over 6 % of world oil reserves. Russia is the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second largest crude oil exporter in the world. In 2004, the country produced 589.1billion cubic metres of natural gas, equivalent to almost 22 % of the world’s production that year. The country also produced 9.3 m bpd, equivalent to 12 % of the world’s production that year, behind Saudi Arabia, which pumped 10.6 m bpd. Crude oil production reached a peak of 11.5 m bpd in 1988 but then declined steadily to 6.1 m bpd in 1996. Since then production has increased steadily to 9.3 m bpd in 2004, the latest figures contained in BP’s Annual Statistical Review. It is estimated that production in 2005 averaged 9.5 m bpd. Most of the increase in Russian production during the present decade was from existing fields through the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques, including hydrofracture and horizontal drilling, with approximately 50 % of the rise attributable to Yukos (taken-over by Rosneft in 2005), Sibneft and Surgutneftegaz. A clear trend in Russia over recent decades has been the deteriorating structure of the reserve base, with over 70 % of the reserves currently operating yielding low flow rates. Ten years ago wells producing just under 200 bpd accounted for 55 % of the total reserves in development. Currently, 55 % of oil reserves are from oil wells that produce less than 80 bpd. The depletion of existing oil fields in Western Siberia and a lower reserve to production rate means that Russia’s oil boom may be followed by a sharp decline if no new discoveries are made in the future. It is estimated that around 80 fields account for over 60 % of the country’s remaining reserves. The future of Russian oil production is linked directly to making large discoveries through exploration drilling that can then be developed. At current levels of production, current reserves will be halved during the next 10 years unless there is a significant increase in exploration expenditure. In order to maintain current production, it is estimated that around $328 bn needs to be invested in the industry between 2006 and 2030. Most of this investment will be made in developing new discoveries. So far investment in exploration has been very low, declining by 60 % between 1988 and 2001 and a further 30 % between 2001-2003. Some of the new large field developments include Lukoil’s Caspian project at Kurmangazy, the Sakhalin Island projects, the Shell joint venture at West Salymskoye project, Lukoil/ ConocoPhillips’s Timan Pechora project, Rosneft/ Gasprom’s Prirazlomnoye project, and Rosneft’s Vankorsoye and Komsomolskoye projects.
  • 17. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 17 Structure of the oil industry Over 100 companies produce oil in Russia, but despite their large number 90 % of production, equivalent to 7.2 m bpd, is produced by the ten largest vertically integrated companies. Three major private companies and one State-owned company, viz, Lukoil, TNK-BP, Surgutneftegaz and Yukos, account for 66 % of production and 57 % exports. The concentration of the industry is the result of the huge merger movement in the 1990s. Foreign investments Foreign investment in the oil sector takes three forms: 1. Direct investment through a shareholding in Russian oil companies 2. The creation of a joint venture with a Russian oil company 3. The acquisition of an exploration and development licence of a deposit through a Production Sharing Agreement. In 2000, foreign-owned companies such as BP, ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Norsk Hydro, Royal Dutch/Shell, Statoil, and TotalFinaElf accounted for 6-7% of Russia's oil production. The largest single investment was made by BP in 2003 when it paid $7bn to acquire 50 % of TNK from the Alfa-Access/Renova Group. TNK-BP is the third largest oil producer in Russia after Yukos (Rosneft) and Lukoil. Hydrocarbon reserves The vast majority of the country’s reserves are located in Western Siberia, between the Ural Mountains and the Central Siberian plateau. The Urals Federal District, particularly in the Tyumen region dominates Russian oil production, accounting for two-thirds of total oil output. The Volga Federal District, with Tatarstan as its oil centre, accounts for almost 25 % of production, though significant amounts of oil is also produced in Bashkortostan, Orenburg, Perm, and Samara. The North West Federal District, with the Komi Republic at its regional oil centre, accounts for 4% of the Russian Federation’s oil output. Oil exports It is estimated that 55% of Russian oil is exported by sea, 40% through the Druzhba pipeline, some 5% by railway, and for the past few years a very small amount by river barge. The Russian oil industry will continue to suffer from an export capacity constraint. There are two export pipeline companies, Transneft for crude oil and Transneftproduckt for oil products. By granting access to these pipelines, the State is able to determine the export capacity for each company. Access to the pipeline is determined by production capacity of each company, but only a maximum of 33 % of its production can be exported. However, because of Russia’s lack of export pipeline capacity, Transneft has set up a priority order for companies, so that the amount exported by each company is more dependent on its capacity for negotiating with the State than its own production capacity. Initially, Yukos and Lukoil were the greatest beneficiaries because of the level of their reserves and the amount of people employed. The Baltic Pipeline System (BPS), with a 1.2 m bpd capacity, was inaugurated in December 2001 transporting crude oil from the West Siberian city of Kharyaga in the Autonomous District of Arkhangellsk to a newly completed port of Primorsk in the Russian Gulf of Finland. The current capacity of Primorsk is 135 m bbls but this is expected to rise to 375 – 525 m bbls by the end of the decade. The BPS gives Russia a direct access to northern European markets, reducing Russia’s dependence on transit routes through Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. There are four oil ports in the White Sea, viz, Varandey, Arkhangelsk, Vitino, and Murmansk. It is likely that other Russian ports will be developed to export crude oil, in particular at Kharyaga-Indiga and at Murmansk. It is likely that a pipeline to Murmansk on the Barents Sea will be built by Transneft, allowing a further 500,000 bpd of oil exports to reach the USA via tankers within nine days, much quicker than the six weeks it takes from the Persian Gulf. Moreover, the construction of LNG facilities at Murmansk and Arkhangelsk has also been suggested, allowing natural gas exports to the USA. The Timan Pechora region The Timan-Pechora oil province, where the Luzskoye field is located, spans the administrative regions of the Republic of Komi and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and extends into the Pechora Sea reaching Kolguyev Island. There are currently 172 oilfields in the region with an estimated reserve base of 15 bn bbls, although Lukoil believes that this figure could double. The prolific Timan- Pechora basin has attracted interest from such western companies as TexacoChevron and ConocoPhillips amongst others. Lukoil is planning to invest $5bn over the next decade in the region, with the aim of making the region the source of one-third of its total production. Rosneft plans to produce about 40% of its output in the region.
  • 18. 18 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH An Old Oil Producing Province The presence of oil near Ukhta in the southwestern part of the Timan-Pechora Basin Province was known as early as 1595, with thirty non-commercial shallow wells drilled in the area between 1869 and 1917. As early as 1745 oil was produced and refined by very primitive methods. Since then over 3900 wells have been drilled in the region. Interest in developing the Komi Republic’s oil reserves increased in the 1930’s after several oil discoveries were made near the town of Ukhta. Major Source Rock The primary source rocks of the basin are late Devonian, known by the Russian name of Domanik, but oil is also found in the Carboniferous and Early Permian layers. The Domanik source rocks were deposited in 100-400 meter water depths under reducing conditions with restricted circulation and low sedimentation rates during a eustatic highstand. The thickness of the deposits range from a few metres to 500 metres. The Timan-Pechora hydrocarbons range from high gravity, low sulphur and low resin oils, with paraffin bases to low gravity, high sulphur and high viscosity oils. Oil gravity varies from 11-62? API and condensate gravity from 45-79 API. The oil produced at the Luzskoye field is an excellent 40 API. Regional governments The Regional Governments play an important role in the development of the oil industry now that the Central government role has declined. Their main areas of influence are taxation, employment protection and non- payment for products by insolvent industries. It is in the allocation of licences for exploration and development of hydrocarbon deposits where the regional authorities have their greatest power. Under the Russian Constitution the Federal State grants ownership of the subsoil but the development of the onshore hydrocarbons reserves in shared equally between the Federal Government and the Regional Authorities where the reserves are located. The future The Russian Ministry of Energy is forecasting that the country's crude oil exports will climb to almost 6.1 m bpd in 2010, but as we have seen exports of crude are increasingly constrained by transport bottlenecks, making Russian oil majors more restraint on exports of oil products in the future. Unlike crude, oil products can be economically transported to ports by rail, making their transport less of a problem. The problem with Russian exports of oil products is its generally low quality. The country still lags behind in producing low sulphur motor fuels, which are compulsory in the EU, and mainly exports fuel oil for which demand is declining.
  • 19. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 19 S.W.O.T Analysis ➔ Good and experienced management team, with extensive experience in Russia and FSU ➔ Over 10 m bbls of proven reserves and 33 m bbls of Proven, Probable and Possible reserves ➔ Independent export route ➔ Former Russian Minister of Geology is a non-executive director ➔ Strong links with US trained Russian drilling and field management companies. Strengths ➔ Management unknown to the UK investment community ➔ Russia’s weak legal system and extensive bureaucracy ➔ High transportation costs from field because of the need to truck the oil ➔ High paraffin concentration limits sale opportunities ➔ Heavy reliance on Rus-Oil for management services. Weaknesses Opportunities ➔ High oil prices are expected to remain for some time, leading to continuing interest in the Oils sector ➔ Russia could become an attractive hedge if instability in the Middle East increases ➔ Sale of rail loading terminal services to third parties ➔ Sale of Transneft export quotas can generate additional revenues. Threats ➔ High oil prices lead to a decline in world economic growth and hence a fall in oil consumption, thus lowering the need to find large incremental hydrocarbon reserves ➔ Large additional supplies of hydrocarbon resources start flowing from OPEC countries that open up their industry to private capital ➔ Revocation of Luzskoye oilfield if the Company fails to comply with licence requirements ➔ Interference from Major Russian oil and gas companies ➔ Increase in Rus-Oil management fees.
  • 20. 20 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Revenue Growth EBITDA Balance sheet strength Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a ROCE 07e 74.4 Gearing 07e -286 % EPS CAGR 05-06e n/a Avg ROCE 05-08e 46.5 Interest cover 07e 6.0 EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a ROE 07e -47.7 Stock turn 06e n/a EBITDA CAGR 05-06e n/a Gross margin 07e 34.7 Debtor days 06e n/a Sales CAGR 05-06e n/a Operating margin 07e 34.7 Creditor days 06e n/a Principal shareholders % Management team Starvest Plc 37.4 Non Executive Chairman: Leslie Goodman Majedie 19 Chief Executive Officer: Peter Hughes Peter Hughes 15 Chief Operations Officer: John Rigby John Rigby 15 Acting Chief Financial Officer: Steven Jaffe Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date Company details AGM Reveley, Wheelers Lane, Smallfield, Surrey RH6 9PT Trading update Phone +44 (0)1342 842 104 Interim results 31.08.06 Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104 Full results 19.12.06 www.concordeoilandgas.com This research report has been prepared by VSA Resources Limited, for which it has been paid a fee, as corporate finance advisors and arrangers to Concorde Oil & Gas plc and is solely for and directed at persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and who are Investment Professionals, as specified in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This research report is exempt from the general restriction on the communication of invitations or inducements to enter into investment activity and has therefore not been approved by an authorised person, as would otherwise be required by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the "Act"). Persons who do not fall within the above category should return this research report to VSA Resources Limited, 43 London Wall, London, EC2M 5TF, immediately. This research report is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. It is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, forwarded to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without out prior written consent. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities. The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at by VSA Resources Limited (the "Company") from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in the research report constitute the Company's judgements as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in the report is published for the assistance of those persons defined above but it is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of the judgement of any reader. 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VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority IMPORTANT NOTICE 0 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e US$m US$m -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2005a 2006e 2007e 2008e %
  • 21. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 21 NOTES
  • 22. 22 CONCORDE OIL & GAS ADMISSION TO AIM APRIL 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH NOTES
  • 23.
  • 24. For further information please contact Concorde Oil & Gas plc Reveley Wheelers Lane Smallfield Surrey RH6 9PT Tel +44 (0)1342 842 104 Fax +44 (0)1342 842 104 www.concordeoilandgas.com phughes@concordeoilandgas.com jrigby@concordeoilandgas.com VSA Resources 43 London Wall London EC2M 5TF Telephone +44 (0)20 7628 3989 Fax: +44 (0)20 7920 0563 bmcbeth@vsaresources.com www.vsaresources.com © VSA Resources Ltd VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange