The document provides an overview of various stocks and market news. It recommends Samkrg Pistons and Dolphin Offshore as top investment buys due to their strong financial performance, competitive strengths in their industries, and potential for future upside given their current valuation multiples. Food prices are identified as a bigger threat to global growth than oil prices due to expected continued rise in food costs driven by weather and increasing demand.
1. Short Term
Market Whispers Model Portfolio
Technical Picks
Pg.8 Pg.6 Pg.7
Top 5 Investment Buy Pg.3
WEEK
Ahead
AHEAD
Dear Investor,
So which is the bigger problem for global growth? Rising fuel prices or food prices? If
you think that its oil because of the ongoing Middle East crisis, think again. True, oil
prices have risen on account of unrest in that region. But the only scenario where oil will
pose a much bigger threat to global growth is if the crisis spreads to Saudi Arabia. Also,
higher oil prices would certainly dampen consumption, which will put downward
pressure on prices at some point. Food is a different story altogether and is certainly a
bigger threat to global growth. This is because food prices are widely expected to
continue rising. This is partly on account of a recent spate of crop-damaging weather,
and also due to rising living standards around the world having pushed up demand for
meat. And poorer nations will feel the burden more as food accounts for a larger chunk
of the household budget. Indeed, emerging markets are currently driving global growth
led by their faster growing economies. But at the end of the day if there is not enough
food to go around, this growth will not have much value.
The sensex lost around 13% till March10 from the peak of 21,005pts on November 5
last years amid fears that rising commodity and crude prices will crimp profit for
companies in the fourth quarter. The price to earnings multiples of sensex have already
come down with the market corrections and brokerages are doing lot of deratings for
the next two quarters as analyst say the current situation is similar to 2008 when the
government had to contain inflation by rising interest rates. According to various
brokerages sensex is commanding valuations of around 17 times forward earnings
(down from 19 during the same period last year). But the price to earnings multiples of
sensex if much higher than other global markets. The fourth quarter corporate earnings
of companies which will start coming from next month will spring in more
disappointments as the global crude prices is hovering at around $116 a barrel.
"Stock speculation is largely matter of A trying to decide what B,C and D are likely to
think with B,C and D trying to do the same thing" – Benjamin Graham
Editor
Ketaki Karnik
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 1
2. Market Whispers
A m ru tanjan fro m p ain b alm to b everages w o rld .T IG L is a G o vern m ent reco gnised exp o rt
O ne o f Ind ia’s o ld est healthcare firm s ho use, w ith a glo b al m arket share in e xcess o f
A m ru tanjan H ea lthcare, k no w n fo r its p ain b alm 4 0 % ,n a recent m o ve T IG L setup the 1 0 0 0 acre
b y the sa m e na m e, ha s d iversified into the M aina k H ills T ea E state a nd G reen T ea facto ry
b everages b usiness b y acq uiring C he nna i-b ased in N o rth B en gal. M ainak is c urrently p ro d ucin g
S iva 's S o ft D rink P vt L td ’s so ft d rin k a nd fruit- o ver 8 lak h k gs o f tea p er a nn u m a nd p ro d uctio n
b ased b everages b usiness alo ng w ith the b rand is set to d o ub le o ver the co m in g year.
F ruitnik fo r R s 2 6 .2 cro re.A m ru tanjan ’s e ntry
into b evera ges w ill further sc ale up its b usine ss. ID B I B ank
A m ru tanjan w as targetin g to tal reve nue s o f R s A rm ed w ith hig her cap ital ad eq uac y a fter the
1 2 4 crore in the fina ncial yea r end in g M arch ’1 1 in fu sio n o f fu nd s b y the go ve rn m e nt, ID B I B an k
fro m 2 0 1 0 -1 1 fro m R s 9 6 cro re last year. It has m a na ged to p erfo rm in line w ith the secto r
p articularly ho ld s a stro n g p o sitio n in the R s average b y clo cking 2 1 % Y o Y gro w th in
1 ,0 0 0 -crore p ain b alm m arket in the co untry ad vances in 9 m F Y 1 1 . F urthe r, in d o ing so , the
b ank ha s p aid heed to m argin s w hic h ha ve
B ajaj A uto In R ural G ear im p ro ved sign ifica ntly o ver the p ast 1 2 m o nth s,
S tren gthe nin g rural d ealership reach and alb eit o n a very lo w b ase. ID B I has ind eed b een
inno vative fina ncin g sc he m e is B ajaj A uto ’s first p articularly ag gressive in gro w in g its retail and
step to w ard s increasing its m a rket share fro m the S M E ad vance p o rtfo lio s, w h ich ha ve gro w n at a
p resent 2 7 % . T he co m p an y h as, in the la st tw o faster clip tha n that in m o st P S U b an ks, altho u g h
m o nths, ap p o inted a reco rd 1 3 5 ne w d ealers in o n a lo w er b ase.
sm all to w n s and m ini-m etro s, w here it had o nly
2 5 d ealers so far, exp and ing its d ealership K SB Pumps
netw o rk to 6 2 0 . T his w ill va stly stre ng the n the T he co m p an y o p erates p red o m inantly thro u g h 2
co m p a n y’s rural p resence, a geo grap h y w h ich b usiness se g m ents viz. p u m p s and valves. T he
generate s alm o st tw o -third s sales fo r d o m inan t 1 4 % gro w th in o verall reve n ues w as d rive n b y
H ero H o nd a, co m m and ing 5 4 % m arke t share. the latter as it m a na ged a 4 4% Y o Y gro w th. T he
p u m p s b usine ss, w hic h is aro und 4 tim es b ig ger
IT C b iggest b ene ficiary than the va lve s seg m e nt m a naged a gro w th o f
IT C has a d iversified re v enue m ix. F ro m just 8 % , th us p ullin g the o verall reven ue gro w th
cigarette seg m e nt b eing the co re b usiness to d o w n. It sho u ld b e no ted that the co m p a n y
F M C G se g m ent, ho tels, a gri a nd p ap er p ro d ucts. m ainly targets p ro ject b ased reven ues. T hu s,
C igarette co ntrib utin g alm o st 5 0 % to the w ith ne w p ro jects slo w ing d o w n a b it, the
reven ues fo llo w ed b y 2 0 % fro m F M C G , 1 4 % reven ue gro w th has no t b een as stro n g as
fro m a gri, 1 1 % p ap er and p aper p ro d ucts and 5 % exp ected . H o w e ver, o nce the cap ex c ycle turns
fro m H o tel se g m ent.IT C w ill b e b ig ge st fo r the b etter, co m p a n y's re ven ues sho uld also
b eneficiary as e xcise d uty kep t u nto uc hed in receive a b o o st.
b ud get
S hiv V a ni O Il
S esa G o a H igher e xp o rt d uty to im p act S hiv V a ni m a y re gistered a n E P S o f R s 4 7 in
p ro fitab ility T he B ud get ha s p ro p o sed raising the F y1 1 and R s 5 5 in F Y 1 2 o n the b ack o f its
exp o rt d uty o n iro n o re to ad valo rem 2 0 % o n exp ansio n. T his o il sec to r sh are is go in g c heap
lu m p s a nd fine s.S esa G o a ge nerates ~ 9 0 % o f its w ith a P /E m ultip le o f just R s 4 .7 o n F Y 1 2
net sales fro m iro n o re exp o rts. H ence, the earnin gs nad fetc h 5 0 % a p p reciatio n in the
B ud get p ro p o sal w o uld result in an increase in m ed iu m term .
the co m p an y’s e xp o rt d uty e x p enses.
S atha vaha na Isp at
G arw are W all R o p e Intro d ucin g so m e ne w S IL is in the iro n and ste el ind ustry and is
p ro d ucts like a gri net a nd co ated fab ric w hic h are enga ged in the m a nu factu ring o f p ig iro n
likely to co ntrib ute o ver the n ext fe w years. G eo m etallurg ical co ke w ith co -g eneratio n p o w er in
synthetics also exp ected to co ntrib ute w ell in F Y 0 9 . N et S ales zo o m ed 8 1 % w hile N et P ro fit
canal linin g a nd co astal p ro tectio n b usine ss. zo o m ed 1 4 4 % o n nine m o nths b asis. Q uarterly
E P S 4 .1 7 w hile the nine m o nth E P S 1 1 .6 6 . A t
T & I G LO BA L LTD the C M P the sto ck is a vailab le at a fo rw ard P /E
T IG l is o ne o f the lead ing m an u facturers and m u ltip le o f just 2 .8
exp o rters o f tea p ro cessing m achinery in the
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 2
3. Top 5 Investment Buy
S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r
S a m k r g P is t o n s 7 6 .4 84 10% 6 .6 9 .7 3 A u t o A n c illa r ie s
S A M K R G tech n o lo g ica l a n d res ea rch ca p a city in term s o f p ro fe ssio n a l sk ills a n d
re so u rc es en a b le m a n u fa ctu re o f a d v a n c ed P isto n s, P isto n s p in s / G u d g eo n P in s,
P isto n R in g s & C irclip s to en d u re h ig h er th erm a l a n d m ech a n ical lo a d s. T h is is critical
to en g in es b ein g m o re p o w e rfu l, efficien t a n d less p o llu tin g . M an u fa ctu rin g &
m a rk etin g o f g o o d v a lu e, h ig h q u a lity a n d co st effe ctiv e p ro d u cts m e e tin g d o m estic
a n d in tern a tio n al cu sto m er q u a lity req u irem en ts. C o m p a n y is h a v in g 3 p lan ts o n e in
H y d era b a d & 2 in V ish ak a p a tn a m .
F o r th e Q 3 F Y 1 1 , it re co rd ed n et sa les o f R s 4 7 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f rs 2 .4 0 cr a g a in st
n et sa les o f R s 3 9 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f R s 1 .6 4 cr in Q 2 F Y 1 0 (N et sa les z o o m ed
2 1 .2 9 % w h ile n et p ro fit zo o m ed 4 6 .3 4 % o n a q u a rterly b a sis). F o r th e first n in e
m o n th s o f F Y 1 1 , it rec o rd ed n et sa les o f R s 1 5 0 cr w ith n et p ro fit o f R s 7 c r a g a in st
n et sa les o f R s 1 0 7 c r. (N et S a les z o o m ed 3 9 % w h ile n et p ro fit zo o m e d 6 1 % o n n in e
m o n th b a sis).
Q u a rte r E P S w a s R s 2 .4 4 w h ile first n in e m o n th s o f F Y 1 1 E P S is R s 7 .2 4 .A t th e
cu rren t lev el th e sto ck is a v a ila ble a t a fo rw a rd P /E m u ltiple o f ju st 7 .6 . th e co m p a n y
h a s b e en c o n sta n tly p a y in g divid en d s w ith 4 0 % in F Y 1 0 .
S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r
D o lp h in o ffs h o r e 145 167 15% 2 9 .3 1 2 .9 2 O il D r illin g / A llie d S e r v ic e s
DOEIL is global provider of integrated services to oil and gas industry with a
diversified portfolio undertaking turnkey projects involving underwater,marine and
offshore construction. Its key competitive strength in its ability to offore underwater
services (divers,diving equipments etc) on water (ship and rig repairs,offshore
support vessels etc) and above water (fabrication,installation etc).
Over the years it has grown from diving and underwater business to an EPC sub
contractor and is now main EPC contractor enabling to bid for high ticket projects.
Primarily being a domestic player its cleintale include IOC and gas companies and
EPC contractors such as ONGC, cairn Energy, L&T, Punj Lyold. Oil India, Essar Oil,
HPCL, IOCL, Aban offshore, Seamec, SCI.
DOEIL performed remarkably well till FY10 and achieved the highes erevr turnover of
Rs 500cr mark. A large portion of revenues were earned from the two EPC contracts
– NQD process and ICP which were awarded by ONGC.But at the same time its order
book shrinks considerably as it did not win any EPC contracts. For the nine months
FY11 revenue dropped by over 50% where PAT had crashed 75%. On the other hand
with crude oil crossing $100 E&P activities are expected to be accelarte in the
offshore Indian market.At present the order book stands at Rs 175cr.
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 3
4. Top 5 Investment Buy
S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r
L u p in 386 463 20% 7 0 .7 2 2 .9 8 P h a r m a c e u t ic a ls -
Lu p in is en g a g ed in d ev elop in g an d m a rk etin g a w id e ra n g e of q u a lity a fford a b le
g en e ric a n d b ra n d ed form u la tion s a n d A P I fo r th e d e v elop ed a n d d ev elop in g m a rk ets
in th e w orld . In p h arm a th e com p a n y is in to b u lk d ru g s a n d form u la tion s,
fe rm en ta tion s,b iotech n o log y ,n a tu ra l p rod u cts a n d a g ro ch em ica ls.
Lu p in h a s w id e p rod u ct b a sk et of c om p risin g form u la tion s from C ep h a losp orin s C V S ,
C N S , A n ti A sh tm a , A n ti T B , d ia b etolog y , D e rm a tolog y its form u la tiosn m a n u fa ctu rin g
fa cilities a re loca ted in M a h a ra sh tra ,M P , G oa a n d J& K . Its A P I fa cility situ a ted a t
v a d od a ra a n d A n k lesh w a r. Lu p in h a s sig n ifica n t m a rk et sh a re in k ey m a rk ets in th e
ca rd iov a s cu la r, D ia b etes, A sth m a , P a ed ia trics, C N S , G I, A n ti in fectiv es a n d N S A ID
th era p y seg m en t n ot ot m en tion g lob al lea d ersh ip p osition in th e A n ti T B seg m en t.
Lu p in glob al form u la tion s b u sin ess con stitu tes close to 8 4 % o f th e c om p a n y o v e ra ll
b u sin ess m ix . F or F Y 1 0 Lu p in p osted con s olid a te n et sa les rev en u e of rs 4 7 4 0 cr w ith
a n et p rofit of rs 6 8 1 cr n ettin g a b a sic E P S of 1 5 .8 4 . Q u a rter n et sa les R s 1 4 6 7 c r
w ith a n et p rofit of R s 2 2 4 cr w ith a b a sic E P S of R s 5 D ec1 0 .Lu p in is a lm ost a d eb t
free c om p a n y w ith retu rn on ca p ital of 2 5 .6 0 % a n d n etw orth 3 3 .2 3 % . A t its C M P its
sh a re p rice d isc ou n t 0 9 -1 0 ea rn in g s of rs 1 5 .8 4 b y a rou n d 2 5 X .
S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r
A m a r a R a ja 170 187 10% 1 9 .1 8 .5 8 E le c t r ic E q u ip m e n t
Company revamped its corporate identity with a new brand image and an ambitious
target of achiveving US $2bn (~9000cr) group revenue by 2015.Chalked out plans to
set up a 500 acre Amara Raja Digital World City in Chittoor AP which will be one of
the India largest integrated electronics manufacturing parks. With 26% equity from
Johnson Control USA, the company is one of the largest manufactures of lead acid
batteries and automotive applications in the Indian storage battery industry.
Under the automotive division it caters across segments like passengers cars, MUV
commercial vehicles motocycles and scooters. Its also commands a substantial
market share in the replacement market. Under the industrial division its supplies
batteries for Telecom infrastructure, UPS systems, railways and IT and banking
segments. To enhance its market share the company has been regularly expanding
capacity and its distribution network.
For Q3FY11 its profit remained flat at rs 40cr on 15% higher sales of Rs 425cr. It is
expected to register PAT of Rs 145-150cr for FY11 and EPS of rs 17 on its equity of
Rs 17cr having face value of Rs 2 per share.At a reasonable discounting by 14x
against forward earnings its share price can appreciate.
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 4
5. Top 10 InvestmentBuy
5 Investment Buy
S e c u r ity N a m e CMP T a rg e t U p s id e EPS P /E S e c to r
H it e c h G e a r s 106 117 10% 1 8 .3 6 .4 7 A u t o A n c illa r ie s
HTGL is an auto components manufacture of world class repute. Its serves deserve
clients across the globe for engine and transmission components produced to the
most exciting standards. Plants are located at Manesar at Gurgaon district at
Haryana and at Bhiwadi in Rajasthan. Products include Precision forgings, 2 Wheeler
Transmission compaonents, PTU Shafts and Engine & Transmission components.
Hitech Robotic Systems. HTGL has technical tieups with Kyushu Musahi japan a
subsidiary of Honda Motors and with Getrag Corp Germany.
HTGL is one of the two preferred suppliers of transmission components to the Hero
group and also currently enjoys a market shares of 50% in the Indian 2 Wheeler
market. With Hero Honda expected to maintain its 2 wheeler market leadership for
the next few years. HTGL is expanding its manufacturing capacity and is setting up a
new plant in Bhiwadi in Rajasthan at a cost of Rs 50cr that would be operational by
Q1FY12. It is also incurring capex to procure high precision machines for
manufacturing components for its customers. With the new plant in pace it would be
able to cater to rising demand.
For FY10 HTGL posted 133% higher net profit at Rs 17.9cr on 10%.The EPS was Rs
9.1 and paid dividend of 45%. During Q3FY11 net profit catapulted by 138% by Rs
9.4cr on 47% higher sales of Rs 112cr. For the first nine months of FY11 net profit
zoomed by 110% to Rs 24.9cr on 31% higher sales of Rs 308cr which gives a nine
month EPS of Rs 13.2
Mar12 Oct 25, 2010
Dec 18 --Dect15, 2010
Oct 09 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 1
5
6. Momentum Picks
W e e k ly U p tre n d
S c rip N a m e T re n d CMP S to p lo s s T a rg e t
H IN D U N IL V R BUY 277 275 282
P IP A V A V Y D BUY 80 76 76
BHUSANSTL BUY 433 425 438
P IR H E A L T H BUY 465 454 471
G A IL BUY 442 438 446
C A M L IN BUY 49 46 52
TAKE BUY 35 32 38
TATACHEM BUY 329 318 337
KOUTONS BUY 32 31 33
C EATLTD BUY 97 93 102
IG L BUY 305 295 313
E N G IN E R S IN BUY 296 290 299
GSFC BUY 367 359 372
A R IE S BUY 124 122 128
X LEN ER G Y BUY 14 14 15
D E C O L IG H T BUY 11 10 11
G R EEN PLY BUY 170 166 173
RAMANEW S BUY 18 18 18
E L G IE Q U IP BUY 91 87 94
1
W e e k ly D o w n t r e n d
S c r ip N a m e T ren d CMP S to p lo s s T a rg et
TATASTEEL SELL 581 591 567
BHEL SELL 1969 2017 1918
SUNDARAM SELL 43 46 40
G U L F O IL C O R SELL 78 81 76
ID E A SELL 61 61 59
AKSHOPTFBR SELL 6 6 5
K W A L IT Y SELL 110 112 107
MTNL SELL 44 45 42
TTML SELL 15 16 15
MANAPPURAM SELL 115 118 111
RAYM O ND SELL 287 294 273
J IN D A L S T E L SELL 650 659 635
V IP IN D SELL 527 543 503
P ID IL IT IN D SELL 136 139 131
IN D IA N B SELL 216 223 207
U FLEX SELL 137 140 133
AQUA SELL 17 18 16
G R A V IT A SELL 285 291 276
SU JAN ATO W SELL 34 35 32
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 6
7. Model Portfolio
Entry
Date Scrip Name Weight(%) Reco.Price MBP Industry
11-Mar KPR Mills 5.00% 167.00 175.35 Textiles - Products
11-Mar Cox & Kings 5.00% 388.00 407.40 Travel Agencies
11-Mar Automobile Corporation of Goa 5.00% 348.00 365.40 Auto Ancillaries
Aluminium and Aluminium
11-Mar Parekh Aluminex 5.00% 249.80 262.29 Products
Transmisson Line Towers /
11-Mar Jyoti Structures 5.00% 81.90 86.00 Equipment
11-Mar Transport Corporation 5.00% 93.70 98.39 Miscellaneous
11-Mar Finolex Cables 5.00% 47.70 50.09 Cables - Power
11-Mar Sterlite Ind 5.00% 160.00 168.00 Mining / Minerals / Metals
11-Mar Essar Oil 5.00% 118.00 123.90 Refineries
11-Mar Ganesh Polytex 5.00% 63.80 66.99 Textiles - Processing
Pharmaceuticals - Indian - Bulk
11-Mar Smruthi Organics 5.00% 132.00 138.60 Drugs
Telecommunications - Service
11-Mar Tulip Telecom 5.00% 141.80 148.89 Provider
Total 60.00%
Portfolio Value 100000
Portfolio 60.00%
Total 60.00%
Portfolio Return
Invested 60000
Gain / Loss Rs
For Detailed Report on the above mentioned company
visit www.bazaaredge.com/blog
Mar12 -18 Mar 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 8
8. This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal
or taxation advice to you. BazaarEDGE Advisory Services Pvt Ltd. BazaarEDGE is not soliciting any action based upon it.
This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and should not be
reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. The report is based upon information that we consider
reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. BazaarEDGE or
any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person
from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. BazaarEDGE or any of its affiliates or employees do
not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report,
including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-
infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. BazaarEDGE and/or its affiliates and/or
employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance
transparency, BazaarEDGE has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however,
not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
The BazaarEDGE Directors own shares in the following companies covered in this report: Nil
BazaarEDGE has no broking relationships with the companies covered in this report.
This information is subject to change without any prior notice. BazaarEDGE reserves the right to make modifications and
alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time. Nevertheless, BazaarEDGE is committed to providing
independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to
specific client queries.
Jan 29 - 04 Feb 2011 www.bazaaredge.com 11