Those slides describe how using the web application available on http://worldcup.bayesialab.com. This application used Bayesian networks to compute the Stage 2 qualification probabilities of any team of any Group of the next FIFA World Cup. To compute these probabilities, the user has just to define his/her belief with probabilities on match results (win, draw, and loss).

1. If the Match France versus Uruguay is a Draw and if
Mexico wins versus South Africa,
and if ....
...
and if ....
Then France can be Qualified for Stage 2

2. Those Endless Scenarios are Over
Enter your prediction in terms of Probabilities on the matches‘
results
“In my opinion, there is a 60% chance that the match
Uruguay vs France ends with a Draw, 25% that France wins, and
then, 15% that Uruguay wins”
BAYESIA will handle your predictions and will give you the exact
Team qualification probabilities

3. A T to Compute the
ool
Qualification Probabilities for
Fifa World Cup Stage 2

4. Click here to select the Group
you want to evaluate. The selected The first match of France
group appears in red is against Uruguay,
on June 11

5. The Sliders allow entering the
probabilities of each result.
Here, we assess a 60% chance for Draw
As probabilities have to sum up to 100,
increasing the Draw’s probability automatically
reduces the probabilities of France and
Uruguay to win the match

6. Checking this box allows fixing
the Draw’s probability
It is then possible to enter the probability
that France (or Uruguay) wins without modifying
the probability associated to Draw. We define here
a 25% chance that France wins

7. The screenshot below describes the probability we assessed for the Group A’ Matches

8. In our assessments, the
lowest probability is 5%, the probability
corresponding to a Draw for South Africa
vs Mexico
We then belief that a Draw is very unlikely,
without fully excluding it
If we imagine 100 matches exactly played in the same
conditions, we then belief that only 5 will end as a Draw, 60 will be a
Mexican win, and 35 a South African win

9. Once satisfied with your assessments, you just
have to click on Validation to execute the
Qualification Probabilities Computation

10. This Chart depicts the exact results of the Computation of the Qualification Probabilities
based on the Matches Probabilities you have previously entered
With our assessments, we get a
77% chance that France will be qualified
for Stage 2, 45% for Uruguay, 44% for
Mexico and 34% for South Africa

11. We wish you pleasant
simulations ...
and a great World Cup
http://worldcup.bayesialab.com