This presentation was provided by Rahim Rajan of the Gates Foundation during a NISO Virtual Conference, Opening Up Education, held on April 19, 2017.

1. Introduction to our Digital Learning Portfolio
Rahim S. Rajan
Senior Program Officer
Postsecondary Success
NISO Workshop
April 19, 2017

2. Our vision is a U.S.
postsecondary
education system that
propels social mobility,
equity, and economic
development.

3. FOUR (NOT SO NEW) PERSISTENT CHALLENGES
© 2017 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 3
 Completion Challenge: stagnant BA & AA attainment rates, middle skill job
demand - rise of automation
 Quality Challenge: globalization, skills gap, misalignment with employers
 Funding Challenge: public disinvestment, health care + entitlements, wage
stagnation/affordability by students and families
 Equity & Demographic Challenge: remediation challenge of “successful” K12
graduates, “non-traditional” is the new traditional; inequitable outcomes for
different populations of students – particularly by race, income, gender

4. A COMPLETION CRISIS
© 2017 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 4
College graduation rates are even worse for low-income students.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics

5. NEW MAJORITY COLLEGE STUDENT IS NON-TRADITIONAL
© 2017 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 5See http://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/charts-a-new-majority-in-k-12.html
2014 US K12 demographic shift to majority minority

6. OVERALL POSTSECONDARY SUCCESS STRATEGY

7. Last updated: April 18, 2017
© Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation | 7
WHY FOCUS ON DIGITAL LEARNING?
Problem Opportunity
Low income, minority students disproportionately perform worse
in both remedial and general education gateway courses; between
25-50% of LIM students drop/stop out within one year (often while
accumulating debt) (ACT, Pell Institute – Moving Beyond Access)
Improve completion rates: Blended and online learning with high quality
courseware can significantly improve progression into and through 24+ credits in the
first 12 months, resulting a higher likelihood of additional credit production and
credential completion. (Attawell & Monaghan, 2016, How Many Credits Should an Undergraduate Take?; 2016
BMGF analysis, PPIC California Study, 2014; UCF analysis performed by BCG)
Costs for higher education are out of reach for too many students –
particularly for low-income students. Institutions need strategies to
improve affordability and sustainability by optimizing instructional
and learning materials costs.
Improve affordability and institutional efficiency: Sound implementations of Digital
Learning enables much greater flexibility for an institution and for busy, new-majority
students while also creating new efficiencies (reduced fixed costs). Institutions can
instruct larger numbers of students at a lower cost per student without sacrificing
educational outcomes (ITHAKA OLI RCT).
Lecture based learning is ineffective pedagogy for all learners, but
even more so for low-income, minority, and female students. In
STEM courses, lecture has been proven to harm disadvantaged
learners and reduce their course success rates. (Freeman – PNAS, 2014)
Improve learning: High quality digital learning can trigger a number of
improvements to the learning experience including: improving feedback,
personalization, and enabling instructors to incorporate more active learning. It also
assists educators by providing them with real time access to analytics, thereby
helping them deliver more targeted instruction to students.
Many students can’t access the courses they need to graduate in a
timely fashion. Because these courses are required courses, they are
often over-subscribed and not available. Many “new majority”
learners are juggling working and school or live in rural areas not
well served by traditional institutions.
Improve flexibility and access: Blended and online learning can help create
additional capacity in the system so that students have more options to take the
courses they need to graduate. Online learning enables students to access learning
that they otherwise wouldn’t (for schedule or distance reasons), enabling them to
make faster progress towards their credential.
Our Theory of
Change
The Postsecondary Success strategy is focused on institutions combing multiple solutions to achieve significant increases in
credential production and a reduction in the attainment gap while improving equity. Our hypothesis is that digital learning,
powered by courseware, can improve credential production and institutional efficiency best when implemented at scale.

8. Last updated: April 18, 2017
Goal: Increase adoption of effective, scaled digital learning to improve
student success and institutional efficiency
STRENGTHEN INNOVATIVE
& HEALTHY MARKET
(IMPROVE AVAILABILITY AND
AWARENESS)
1
IMPLEMENTATION
SUPPORT
(INCREASE ADOPTION)
2
BUILD EVIDENCE BASE
(DEMONSTRATE EFFICACY)3
Support creation of an
innovative, healthy, self-
sustaining market for high
quality, affordable
courseware and other
tools/services that enable
scaled online and blended
learning
Provide implementation
support and
implementation scenarios
for institutions seeking to
scale impactful digital
learning
Continue building a
rigorous evidence base
demonstrating impact of
digital learning (improving
outcomes and efficiency)
for low-income, under-
represented minority
students
OUR DIGITAL LEARNING PORTFOLIO HAS 3 FOCUS AREAS

9.  We see a variety of implementations of digital learning in the field + many benefits
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 9
DIGITAL LEARNING TODAY
Mixed modality
Courses
• Instruction: Mix of
online and face to
face
• Student experience:
Some time on
campus
• Breadth: Individual
course
Fully online
Courses (on campus)
• Instruction: Fully
online
• Student experience:
Can be on campus
or remote
• Breadth: Individual
course
Face to face:
base case
• Instruction: Face to
face
• Student experience:
On campus
• Breadth: Individual
course
Fully online
programs
• Instruction: Fully
online
• Student experience:
Fully online
• Breadth: Full
program
Use of Adaptive Courseware
Use of OER
 Benefits to Students:
 21st century skills
 Greater Flexibility,
Convenience
 Personalized
Instruction
 Potentially lower
costs for students
 Benefits to Institutions:
 Learning Data
 Instructional
Improvement
 Rigorous,
consistent
outcomes
 Increased Savings
IMPROVED MASTERY :: IMPROVED PROGRAM COMPLETION :: INCREASED SAVINGS

10. Last updated: April 18, 2017
THE PRINT TO DIGITAL TRANSITION IS ONGOING; WE
ANTICIPATE REACHING A “TIPPING POINT” FOR DIGITAL
PHASE 0: [1990’s]
Content: printed texts and
coursepacks are sole content
option
Key players:
• Large publishers are primary
suppliers
• Distribution takes place through
bookstores
Buyer power:
• Student decides to buy new/used
book
• Price set by publishers
• Steady price inflation
PHASE 1: [2000 – 2010]
Content: printed texts and
coursepacks are primary option, e-
texts available for purchase bundled
with print. Digital ancillaries for
homework/practice.
Key players:
• Large publishers are primary
suppliers
• Bookstores are primary channel for
dist., along with emerging e-retail
and rental options
Buyer power:
• Student decides to buy / rent
• Price options include bookstore or
online purchase, or print/digital
bundle configurations (print + digital
for a fee)
• Steady price inflation
PHASE 2: [2006 - 2015]
Content: printed texts maintain
majority share; digital content of
various forms replaces print in
courses, print is increasingly
considered a reference tool
Key players:
• Large publishers compete with
content / tech providers and OER
options
• E-retail / rental are approaching
parity with bookstores
Buyer power:
• Institution may purchase and build
into student fees
• Student decides to buy / rent
• Price options include bookstore or
online purchase, or digital / print
bundle configurations (digital +
print for a fee)
• Moderate price inflation
PHASE 3: [2013 AND BEYOND]
Content: digital resources as primary
core and supplemental content; print
minority share
Key players:
• Breadth of content / tech providers
and OER options
• E-retail / e-rental and direct to
student sales minimize need for
physical bookstores
Buyer power:
• Institution may purchase and build
into student fees
• Student decides to buy / rent
• Price options include digital or
digital + print for a fee; and OER
equivalencies
• Price contraction
DIGITAL CONTENT
TIPPING POINT

11. Last updated: April 18, 2017
SALES OF DIGITAL MATERIALS HAVE GROWN AND ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GROW
Source: PubTrack; Tyton Partners Analysis
Note: Detail on Methodology and Data Sources is provided in “Market Opportunity Analysis” Section
Assuming Continued Growth of Digital Penetration, Digital Materials Sales Are Expected to Grow to 5.3m Units by 2018
2.8M
3.6M
4.2M
4.8M
5.3M
0.0M
0.5M
1.0M
1.5M
2.0M
2.5M
3.0M
3.5M
4.0M
4.5M
5.0M
5.5M
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Digital Materials Unit Sales, Academic Years 2014 to 2018
Unit Sales Assuming growth from ~20% penetration in
2014 to ~37% penetration in 2018
17% CAGR
 Growth in digital sales was calculated by using the 2011-2014 annual growth rate of digital penetration by discipline and applying it forward from 2014 to 2018, assuming a flat total market
size (in unit sales). Digital penetration in a single discipline was capped at 50%

12. © 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 12
7 grantees from
51 original applicants
30+ high enrollment courses
NEXT-GENERATION COURSEWARE CHALLENGE
Goal of reaching 1Mlearners using next-gen
courseware by 2018.
10+ industry partners
Intro Physics
Intro Chemistry
Intro Biology
New Courses
Gen-Ed Science
English Comp I & II
Student Success
Intro Sociology
Western Civ I & II
Intro to Acctg
Intro to Mgmt
US History
Intro to Business
Intro to Mktg
Microeconomics
Macroeconomics
Enhanced Courses
Probability & Stats
Intro Psychology
Intro World History
Intro Biology
Anatomy Physiology
Intro IT
Microbiology
Intro Statistics
StatisticsGoal of improving learning outcomes, mastery
and course completion, especially among
low-income, Pell-eligible undergraduates.

13. NEXT-GENERATION COURSEWARE GRANTEES
© 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 13

14. Adoptions – October 2016
• NROC members
using EdReady
in 41 states
• Statewide or
Systemwide
adoption in
seven states

15. Our members serve
2.3 million students
from middle school to college
Member institutions nationwide
• 18 statewide secondary, post-secondary,
virtual school, and adult ed systems
• many large secondary and post-secondary
districts
• 300,000 students active in Edready daily

16. 16
Where are we going? Houston Community College’s Z Degree
Initiative as a Illustrative Example
Overview of HCC's digital implementation
Motivation
• Expand access and provide flexibility to
students; boost enrollments
• Provide a more efficient pathway to
completion
Reach and modalities
• ~56K students in Fall 2015
– 50% of student population (~28K) take at
least one course in a digital modality
• Online, mixed modality and face-to-face
courses offered
Operational approach
• Central team (HCC Online) provides
technical and academic support to students
and faculty
• Centralized instructional design team
supports faculty in course development
• Faculty must receive training before they can
teach online
• Organization around workforce disciplines
served by cross-cutting academic units
• Budget is assigned to departments based
primarily on cost of instruction
Best practices contributing to ROI
• Center of Excellence model
– Consistent student experience, with
coordinated delivery of instruction around
centers of excellence and academic units
throughout the system
– Greater cost efficiency by optimizing course
portfolio across the system v. individual
colleges
• Funding of individual colleges based on cost
of instruction
– Enhanced collaboration among colleges
avoiding competition for enrollment; enables
focus on improving quality of instruction and
student experience
• Student and faculty support at scale
– Lean centralized team targets online
students but serves the entire system; very
small incremental cost
• Stable and large-scale online offering
– Lower cost of instructional delivery due to
larger section size
– Faster degree completion and improved
affordability due to flexible access

17. QUESTIONS?

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