Value Proposition canvas- Customer needs and pains
Technical Analysis Study of the Stock Market
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
COMPANY PROFILE….
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INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
A stock market is a private or public market for the trading of company stock
and derivatives of company stock at an agreed price; both of these are securities
listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.
Definition:
The expression 'stock market' refers to the market that enables the trading of
company stocks (collective shares), other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are
still traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market known as the
bond market. Commodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives
are traded in a variety of markets (but, like bonds, mostly 'over-the-counter').
Market participants:
Many years ago, worldwide, buyers and sellers were individual investors, such as
wealthy businessmen, with long family histories to particular corporations. Over
time, markets have become more "institutionalized"; buyers and sellers are largely
institutions (e.g., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hedge funds,
investor groups, and banks).
The rise of the institutional investor has brought with it some improvements in
market operations. Thus, the government was responsible for "fixed" fees being
markedly reduced for the 'small' investor, but only after the large institutions had
managed to break the brokers' solid front on fees (they then went to 'negotiated'
fees, but only for large institutions).
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Importance of stock market:
1. Function and purpose:
The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise
money. This allows businesses to go public, or raise additional capital for
expansion. The liquidity that an exchange provides affords investors the ability to
quickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investing in
stocks, compared to other less liquid investments such as real estate.
2. Relation of the stock market to the modern financial system:
The financial system in most western countries has undergone a remarkable
transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. A portion of
the funds involved in saving and financing flows directly to the financial markets
instead of being routed via banks' traditional lending and deposit operations. The
general public's heightened interest in investing in the stock market, either
directly or through mutual funds, has been an important component of this
process. Statistics show that in recent decades shares have made up an
increasingly large proportion of households' financial assets in many countries.
3. The Stock Market, individual investors & financial risk:
Riskier long-term saving requires that an individual possess the ability to manage
the associated increased risks. Stock prices fluctuate widely, in marked contrast to
the stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is something that could affect not
only the individual investor or household, but also the economy on a large scale.
This is certainly more important now that so many newcomers have entered the
stock market, or have acquired other 'risky' investments.
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Irrational behavior:
Sometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic news, even if that
news has no real effect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the
stock market can be swayed tremendously in either direction by press releases,
rumors, euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities
can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-changing events, making
the stock market difficult to predict.
4. The Crashes:
A stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of equities
listed on the stock exchanges. In parallel with various economic factors, a reason
for stock market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up
with speculative economic bubbles.
Stock market index:
The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in
price indices called stock market indices, of which there are many, e.g., the S&P,
the FTSE and the Euronext indices. Such indices are usually market capitalization
(the total market value of floating capital of the company) weighted, with the
weights reflecting the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of
the index are reviewed frequently to include/exclude stocks in order to reflect the
changing business environment.
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Derivative instruments:
Financial innovation has brought many new financial instruments whose pay-offs
or values depend on the prices of stocks. Some examples are exchange-traded
funds (ETFs), stock index and stock options, equity swaps, single-stock futures,
and stock index futures. These last two may be traded on futures exchanges
(which are distinct from stock exchanges—their history traces back to
commodities futures exchanges), or traded over-the-counter. As all of these
products are only derived from stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded
in a (hypothetical) derivatives market, rather than the (hypothetical) stock market.
Leveraged Strategies:
Stock that a trader does not actually own may be traded using short selling;
margin buying may be used to purchase stock with borrowed funds; or,
derivatives may be used to control large blocks of stocks for a much smaller
amount of money than would be required by outright purchase or sale.
1. Short selling:
In short selling, the trader borrows stock (usually from his brokerage which holds
its clients' shares or its own shares on account to lend to short sellers) then sells it
on the market, hoping for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the
stock, making money if the price fell in the meantime or losing money if it rose.
Exiting a short position by buying back the stock is called "covering a short
position." This strategy may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially
lower the price of a stock. Hence most markets either prevent short selling or
place restrictions on when and how a short sale can occur.
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2. Margin buying:
In margin buying, the trader borrows money (at interest) to buy a stock and hopes
for it to rise. Most industrialized countries have regulations that require that if the
borrowing is based on collateral from other stocks the trader owns outright, it can
be a maximum of a certain percentage of those other stocks' value. A margin call
is made if the total value of the investor's account cannot support the loss of the
trade. Regulation of margin requirements (by the Federal Reserve) was
implemented after the Crash of 1929. Before that, speculators typically only
needed to put up as little as 10 percent (or even less) of the total investment
represented by the stocks purchased.
New issuance:
Global issuance of equity and equity-related instruments totaled $505 billion in
2004, a 29.8% increase over the $389 billion raised in 2003. Initial public
offerings (IPOs) by US issuers increased 221% with 233 offerings that raised $45
billion, and IPOs in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) increased by 333%,
from $ 9 billion to $39 billion.
Investment strategies:
One of the many things people always want to know about the stock market is,
"How do I make money investing?" There are many different approaches; two
basic methods are classified as either fundamental analysis or technical
analysis. Fundamental analysis refers to analyzing companies by their financial
statements found in SEC Filings, business trends, general economic conditions,
etc. Technical analysis studies price actions in markets through the use of charts
and quantitative techniques to attempt to forecast price trends regardless of the
company's financial prospects.
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Taxation:
According to each national or state legislation, a large array of fiscal obligations
must be respected regarding capital gains, and taxes are charged by the state over
the transactions, dividends and capital gains on the stock market, in particular in
the stock exchanges. However, these fiscal obligations may vary from jurisdiction
to jurisdiction because, among other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is
already incorporated into the stock price through the different taxes companies
pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost
economic growth.
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COMPANY PROFILE
Sharekhan is the retail brokering arm of SSKI; SSKI is SS Kantilal Ishwarlal
Securities Pvt. Ltd. It is an organization with more than eight decades of trust and
credibility in the stock market.
As the punch line of the company says it’s a guide to the financial jungle it has
its many group of companies carrying on financial activities.
Sharekhan – Retail broking brand
Sharekhan is the retail broking arm of SSKI group. Sharekhan has successfully
transformed into a full fledge retail brand of SSKI. It is a one stop shop for all
kind of trading activities related to share and other recent happenings like
derivative market and evolved commodity market in India.
Sharekhan.com
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Sharekhan.com is the answer for the highly volatile stock market in India.
As the market has grown leaps and bounces in the recent year. SEBI (Securities &
Exchange Board of India) has made Demat Account mandatory for trading in any
of the stock exchanges. Share khan along with banks in India has fund transfer
facility with many of these banks.
The online form of trading is carried on through Sharkhan.com. It allows the
clients to access the website to know about the latest news in the market and the
impact it has on the various scrips. SSKI is in the Indian securities business since
1922. Share khan is serving Institutional Investors –Domestic /International. The
institutional Research team is rated as one of the best in industry Sharekhan has
been rated as among Top 3 domestic brokerage and rated as one of the most
aggressive in the industry.
SSKI Group Companies
SSKI Investor Services Ltd. (Sharekhan)
S.S. Kantilal Ishwarlal Securities.
SSKI Corporate Finance.
Vision:
To be the best retail broking brand in the Indian Equities
market.
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Mission:
To educate and empower the individual investor to make
better investment decisions through quality advice and
superior service.
The Sharekhan Way of Life:
People driven relationships
Growth driven
Values and ethics based
Sharekhan’s Beliefs and Expectations:
At Sharekhan people believe in and promote a culture that ….
Stimulates the employees drive to excel.
Nurture their entrepreneurial sprit by providing them exposure to
challenging work opportunities and imparting autonomy to function
effectively.
Enhancing transparency and trust, being non-discriminative to any
practice/procedure/system.
Acknowledges and rewards individual and team contribution through
appropriate rewards, recognition and compensation.
Builds a sense of ownership across the organization for adherence to risk
and compliance procedures amongst all employees and channel partners.
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Service profile:
Broking in Equities and derivatives on NSE & BSE.
Depository Services.
Commodities Trading on MCX & NCDEX.
IPO Services.
Portfolio management services.
Distribution services.
Structured products with fixed returns.
Achievements and Awards:
Rated among the top 20 wired companies along with Reliance, HLL,
Infosys, etc by Business Today Jan 2004 edition.
Amongst the top 3 online trading websites from India most preferred
financial destination amongst online banking customers.
(Source: Net sense, an independent study of financial services in India)
Winner of “Best Financial Website Award. CHIP- Dishnet DSL Web
Awards.
India’s Most Preferred Broker award given to Sharekhan at the ‘Awaaz
Consumer Awards 2005’ in the “Stock Broking” category.
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Area of Operation:
Growing network of share shops from Sharekhan.com to India’s largest chain of
branded retail share shops – 679 shops in 234 towns.
679 branded
share shops India’s largest chain of branded
across 234 cities retail share shops
in India
Competitors Information:
The major players in online trading other than Sharekhan are;
5paisa.com
Kotakstreet.com
IndiaBulls.com
ICICIdirect.com
HDFCsec.com
Motilal Oswal
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INTRODUCTION TO CEMENT SECTOR
ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS……….
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INTRODUCTION TO CEMENT SECTOR
India is today the second largest producer of cement in world with an installed
capacity of close to 155 million tonnes per year. 95 % is consumed domestically
and only 5% is exported. Demand is growing at more than 10 % per annum. More
than 90 % of production comes from large cement plants. There are a total of 130
large and more than 350 small cement manufacturing units in the country. More
than 80% of the cement-manufacturing units use modern environment friendly
“dry” process.
The forms of cement produced:
• Ordinary Portland Cement
• Portland Pozzolana Cement
• Portland Slag Cement
• Blended Cement
Major players in Indian cement sector:
• Heidelberg
• Lafarge
• Italcementi
• Holcim
• Gujrat Ambuja Cement
• ACC
• Ultratech Cement
• India Cements
• Century Cements
• Jaypee Group
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• Madras Cements
• Dalima cements
India’s per capita cement production: 130 kg per annum. World average of per
capita cement production: More than 280 kg per annum.
Bottlenecks of Cement Industry:
• A comparison of the energy efficiency of Indian cement industry with that
of other developed nations shows Indian companies are lagging.
• Regional imbalances in cement production.
• High transportation cost involved.
I have taken Three Cement Sector Companies which are as follows:
1. ACC
2. ULTRATECH.
3. GRASIM.
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1. ACC:
ACC Limited is India’s foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete
with a countrywide network of factories and marketing offices.Established in
1936, ACC has been a pioneer and trend-setter in cement and concrete
technology. ACC’s brand name is synonymous with cement and enjoys a high
level of equity in the Indian market. It is the only cement company that figures in
the list of Consumer SuperBrands of India. Among the first companies in India to
include commitment to environment protection as a corporate objective, ACC has
won several prizes and accolades for environment friendly measures taken at its
plants and mines. The company has also been felicitated for its acts of good
corporate citizenship.
ACC was the first recipient of ASSOCHAM’s first ever National Award for
outstanding performance in promoting rural and agricultural development
activities in 1976. Decades later, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry
selected ACC as winner of its Good Corporate Citizen Award for the year 2002.
Over the years, there have been many awards and felicitations for achievements in
Rural and community development, Safety, Health, Tree plantation, afforestation,
Clean mining, Environment awareness and protection
Awards & Accolades :
• IMC Ramkrishna Bajaj National Quality Award - – Gagal wins
Commendation Certificate and New Wadi Plant wins Special Award for
Performance Excellence in the Manufacturing Sector, 2007.
• Indo German Greentech Environment Excellence Award
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• National Award for outstanding performance in promoting rural and
agricultural development – by ASSOCHAM
• Sword of Honour - by British Safety Council, United Kingdom for
excellence in safety performance.
• Indira Priyadarshini Vrikshamitra Award --- by The Ministry of
Environment and Forests for "extraordinary work" carried out in the area
of afforestation.
• FICCI Award --- for innovative measures for control of pollution, waste
management & conservation of mineral resources in mines and plant.
• Subh Karan Sarawagi Environment Award - by The Federation of Indian
Mineral Industries for environment protection measures.
• Drona Trophy - By Indian Bureau Of Mines for extra ordinary efforts in
protection of Environment and mineral conservation in the large
mechanized mines sector.
• Golden Peacock Environment Management Special Award - for
outstanding efforts in Environment Management in the large
manufacturing sector.
• Indira Gandhi Memorial National Award - for excellent performance in
prevention of pollution and ecological development
• Excellence in Management of Health, Safety and Environment :
Certificate of Merit by Indian Chemical Manufacturers Association
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• Vishwakarma Rashtriya Puraskar trophy for outstanding performance in
safety and mine working
• Good Corporate Citizen Award - by PHD Chamber of Commerce and
Industry
2. ULTRATECH:
Ultratech Cement Limited, a Grasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of 17
million tonnes. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland
Blast Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzolana Cement.
UltraTech has five integrated plants, five grinding units and three terminals —
two in India and one in Sri Lanka. These include
an integrated plant and two grinding units of the
erstwhile Narmada Cement Company Limited, a
subsidiary, which has been amalgamated with the
company in May 2006. UltraTech is the country's
largest exporter of cement clinker. The company
exports over 2.5 million tonnes per annum, which is about 30 per cent of the
country's total exports. The export markets span countries around the Indian
Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.
The cement division of L&T was demerged in 2004 after Grasim made the 30 per
cent open offer for equity shares, gaining control over the new company,
christened UltraTech. Ready Mix Concrete is likely to see substantial growth in
the coming years. Recognizing the opportunities that this business will offer,
UltraTech has commenced setting up of Ready Mix Concrete plants at various
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places in the country. UltraTech's subsidiaries are: Dakshin Cements Limited and
UltraTech Ceylinco (Private) Limited.
3. GRASIM:
Grasim Industries Limited, a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group, ranks
among India's largest private sector companies, with consolidated net revenues of
Rs.141 billion and a consolidated net profit of Rs.20 billion (FY2007).
Starting as a textiles manufacturer in 1948, today Grasim's businesses comprise
viscose staple fibre (VSF), cement, sponge iron, chemicals and textiles. Its core
businesses are VSF and cement, which contribute to over 90 per cent of its venues
and operating profits.
The Aditya Birla Group is the world’s largest producer of VSF, commanding a 21
per cent global market share. Grasim, with an aggregate capacity of 270,100 tpa
has a global market share of 11 per cent. It is also the second largest producer of
caustic soda (which is used in the production of VSF) in India.
In cement (grey cement and white cement), Grasim along with its subsidiary
UltraTech Cement Ltd. has a capacity of 30 million tpa and is a leading cement
player in India. In July 2004, Grasim acquired a majority stake and management
control in UltraTech Cement Limited. One of the largest of its kind in the cement
sector, this acquisition catapulted the Aditya Birla Group to the top of the league
in India.
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All of Grasim's units have earned ISO 9002 and 14001 certifications.
Product quality, innovation and eco-friendliness are a hallmark of all the
company's divisions.
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ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS……….
Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to
forecast the future direction of security prices through the study of past market
data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers
only the actual price behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that
price reflects all relevant factors before an investor becomes aware of them
through other channels.
Technical analysts may employ models and trading rules based, for example, on
price transformations, such as the Relative Strength Index, moving averages,
regressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or,
classically, through recognition of chart patterns.
General description
Technical analysts (or technicians) seek to identify price patterns and trends in
financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. While technicians use
various methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians
especially search for archetypal patterns, such as the well-known head and
shoulders reversal pattern, and also study such indicators as price, volume, and
moving averages of the price. Many technical analysts also follow indicators of
investor psychology.
Critics argue that these 'patterns' are simply random effects on which humans
impose causation. They state that human see patterns that aren't there and then
ascribe value to them.
Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically
mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to
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help determine whether an asset is trending, and if it is, its price direction.
Technicians also look for relationships between price, volume, and in the case of
futures, open interest. Examples include the relative strength index, and MACD.
Other avenues of study include correlations between changes in options [implied
volatility] and put/call ratios with price.
Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that large gains from
successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losing trades, producing
positive returns in the long run through proper risk control and money
management.
Technical analysis is frequently contrasted with fundamental analysis, the study
of economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial
markets. Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such
influences before investors are aware of them, hence the study of price action
alone. Some traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, while
others use both types to make trading decisions.
Lack of evidence
Critics of technical analysis include well known fundamental analysts. For
example, Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts are great for predicting the past."
Warren Buffet has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned
the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was
all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians”.
Most academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive power, but some
studies say it may produce excess returns. For example, measurable forms of
technical analysis, such as non-linear prediction using neural networks, have been
shown to occasionally produce statistically significant prediction results. A
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Federal Reserve working paper regarding support and resistance levels in short-
term foreign exchange rates "offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict
intraday trend interruptions," although the "predictive power" of those levels was
"found to vary across the exchange rates and firms examined."
Efficient market hypothesis
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) contradicts the basic tenets of technical
analysis, by stating that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict future
prices. Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. Economist
Eugene Fama published the seminal paper on the EMH in the Journal of Finance
in 1970, and said "In short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model
is extensive, and contradictory evidence is sparse”. EMH advocates say that if
prices quickly reflect all relevant information, no method (including technical
analysis) can "beat the market." Developments which influence prices occur
randomly and are unknowable in advance.
Technicians say that EMH ignores the way markets work, in that many investors
base their expectations on past earnings or track record, for example. Because
future stock prices can be strongly influenced by investor expectations,
technicians claim it only follows that past prices influence future prices.
Random walk hypothesis
The random walk hypothesis may be derived from the weak-form efficient
markets hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that market participants
take full account of any information contained in past price movements. "The
problem is that once such regularity is known to market participants, people will
act in such a way that prevents it from happening in the future”.
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History
The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial
markets over hundreds of years. The oldest known example of technical analysis
was a method used by Japanese traders as early as the 18th century, which
evolved into the use of candlestick techniques, and is today a main charting tool.
Many more technical tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in
recent decades, with an increasing emphasis on computer-assisted techniques.
Principles of technical analysis
Technicians say that a market's price reflects all relevant information, so their
analysis looks more at "internals" than at "externals" such as news events. Price
action also tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend toward
patterned behavior -- hence technicians' focus on identifiable trends and
conditions.
Market action discounts everything
On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the cause
of the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on adjacent days
also fail to reveal any convincing accounts of why future profits or discount rates
might have changed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that
accounted for these significant market moves is difficult to reconcile with the
view that such shocks account for most of the variation in stock returns.
Prices move in trends
Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets trend
up, down, or sideways (flat). An example of a security that had an apparent trend
is AOL from November 2001 through August 2002. A technical analyst or trend
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follower recognizing this trend would look for opportunities to sell this security.
AOL consistently moves downward in price. Each time the stock rose, sellers
would enter the market and sell the stock; hence the "zig-zag" movement in the
price. In other words, each time the stock edged lower, it fell below its previous
relative low price.
History tends to repeat itself
Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the
investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to charting, yet is
always concerned with price trends. For example, many technicians monitor
surveys of investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine
whether a trend will continue or if a reversal could develop; they are most likely
to anticipate a change when the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.
Rule-based trading
Rule-based trading is an approach to make one's trading plans by strict and clear-
cut rules. Unlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it
defines a set of rules that determines all trades, leaving minimal discretion. For
instance, a trader might make a set of rules stating that he will take a long position
whenever the price of a particular instrument closes above its 50-day moving
average, and shorting it whenever it drops below.
Combining Technical Analysis with other Market Forecast Methods
John Murphy in his book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets", says that
the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and
open interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are considered
secondary. Technical analysis is also often combined with quantitative analysis
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and economics. For example, neural networks may be used to help identify
intermarket relationships. A few market forecasters combine financial astrology
with technical analysis.
Charting terms and indicators
Widely-known technical analysis concepts include:
• Breakout - when a price passes through and stays above an area of support
or resistance
• Commodity Channel Index - identifies cyclical trends
• Momentum - the rate of price change
• Moving average - lags behind the price action
• Relative Strength Index (RSI) - oscillator showing price strength
• Resistance - an area that brings on increased selling
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METHODOLOGY:
The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. Closing prices of
scrips were collected through National Stock Exchange website. The data
employed in this study comprises of one year observations on the Cement Sector
companies’ Closing price. Daily data are preferred in this study. The choice of
daily closing price is realistic and helpful to calculate and testing the results in
technical analysis.
Statistical Tools Used:
1. Day Moving Average.
2. Relative strength index.
3. Rate of change method.
1. Day Moving Average:
Day Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available
to the technical analyst. They smooth a data series and make it easier to spot
trends, something that is especially helpful in volatile markets. They also form the
building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays.
The two most popular types of moving averages:
• Daily Moving Average (SMA) and
• Exponential moving Average (EMA).
In this study day moving average has taken.
For example: a 5-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing
prices for the last 5 days and dividing the total by 5.
10 + 11 + 12 + 13 + 14 = 60
60 / 5 = 12.
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The calculation is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then
joined to form a smooth curving line - the moving average line. Continuing our
example, if the next closing price in the average is 15, then this new period would
be added and the oldest day, which is 10, would be dropped. The new 5-day
simple moving average would be calculated as follows:
11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15 =65
65 / 5 = 13
How are Moving Averages Used:
The primary purpose of moving averages is to "smooth" data so that trends are
more discernable. They are used to construct market indicators and to assist in
interpretation of price charts.
Moving average crossovers can also be used as signals to buy and sell. This is
normally done in two ways:
(1) By watching for price to cross whatever moving average you may be using, or
(2) Running two moving averages of the same price or index, one faster than the
other,
and buying or selling when the faster average crosses the slower.
The weakness of moving average buy and sell systems is that they will most
likely become unprofitable when the stock or index begins moving sideways in a
narrow trading range. Under these circumstances price never moves above or
below the average far enough to become profitable.
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30. A STUDY ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS At
2. Relative strength index:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an extremely useful and popular momentum
oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the
magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges
from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the
calculation.
Calculation:
RSI = 100 – 100 / (1+RS)
Average gain = (Total gains / n)
Average loss = (Total loss / n)
Relative Strength = Average gain / Average loss
Relative Strength Index = 100 – 100 / (1+ RS)
N = number of RSI periods.
To simplify the formula, the RSI has been broken down into its basic components
which are the Average Gain, the Average Loss, the First RS, and the subsequent
Smoothed RS's.
For a 20 -period RSI, the Average Gain equals the sum total all gains divided by
20. Even if there are only 5 gains (losses), the total of those 5 gains (losses) is
divided by the total number of RSI periods in the calculation (7 in this case). The
Average Loss is computed in a similar manner. Calculation of the First RS value
is straightforward: divide the Average Gain by the Average Loss. All subsequent
RS calculations use the previous period's Average Gain and Average Loss for
smoothing purposes.
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31. A STUDY ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS At
Rate of change method:
The Rate of Change (ROC) indicator is a very simple yet effective oscillator that
measures the percent change in price from one period to the next. The ROC
calculation compares the current price with the price n periods ago.
ROC = Today’s Close-Close n periods ago * 100
Close n periods ago
The plot forms an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line as the
Rate of Change moves from positive to negative. The oscillator can be used as
any other momentum oscillator by looking for higher lows, lower highs, positive
and negative divergences, and crosses above and below zero for signals.
ROC can be plotted using different periods such as 10 days or 30 days by
changing the value. The longer the time span used, the greater the fluctuation in
the indicator (in terms of both magnitude and duration).
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