2. Chart Basics, Volume, Support and Resistance, Trendlines, Moving Averages (SPY Daily Chart July 2007-Presnt Stage 3 Top and Stage 4 Decline) Yellow=50 Day Moving Average Blue= 200 Day Moving Average
8. Simple and Exponential Moving Averages Yellow= 50 Day Simple Moving Average Blue= 200 Day Simple Moving Average Yellow Dot= 50 Day Exponential Moving Average Blue Dot= 200 Day Exponential Moving Average
9. The Four Stages of a Market : 1 Base/Accumulation 2 Mark-up/Advance 3 Top/Distribution 4 Decline (HOV 9-Day Chart 2000-2008) Yellow=approx 50-day M.A. Blue=approx 200-Day M.A.
12. Stage 3-Top Yellow= 50-day moving average Blue= 200-day moving average Fractal Staging (HOV Daily Chart 2004-2008)
13. Stage 4 Decline (HOV Daily Chart 2007-Present) Yellow=50-Day Moving Average Blue= 200-Day Moving Average
14. Moving Averages: Simple vs. Exponential Yellow= 50-Day Simple moving average Blue= 200-Day Simple moving average Yellow= 50-Day Exponential moving average Blue= 200-Day Exponential moving average
15. Moving Averages: 5 and 10 Day Simple Moving Averages The direction of a 5-sma on a daily chart often signals the character of the short-term trend. A breakout above a 10-sma/ema often signals the start of a short-term move. (SMH Daily Chart, Sept 2007-Feb 2008)
16. Macro/Micro: 5 and 10 sma on a Weekly Chart A: 5 sma rising and x-over the 10 sma +7.64% B: Lateral Trend +.54% C: Rising 5 sma and X-over the 10 sma 3.45%-8.83% D: Lateral Trend =+1.03% E: Declining 5 sma and X-under the 10 sma= -15.13%/-21.67%
21. Wilder’s RSI: Divergence Analysis A) Negative Divergence between 1 & 2 B) Positive Divergence between 3 & 4 C) Positive Divergence between 4 & 5 D) Positive Divergence between 6 & 7 (SKF 10-min Chart 1/24/2008 - 2/4/2008)
22. Wilder’s RSI A) Positive Divergence between 1 & 2 B) Negative (Relative) Divergence between 3 & 4 C) Negative Divergence between 4 & 5 C) Negative Divergence between 5 & 6 B/C) Negative (Relative) Divergence between 7 & 8