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Macro Economic Overview and
Banking Research

April 2013
CA Kajal Gandhi
Strong, Stable Growth Your Service
Deal Team – At
•

India’s medium term growth prospects remain strong on account of
− Favourable demographics
− Resilient economic structure

− Stable democratic institutions
− Continued infrastructure
•

While growth has averaged at 8.5% between FY06 – 11, even in the face of a
severe and persistent global slowdown, GDP growth is expected to be around
5.0% in 2012-13.

•

The private sector plays a key role in driving investment. Economic growth is
largely domestically generated by high savings / investment, making it less
vulnerable to adverse external developments

CA Kajal Gandhi

2
Commitment to fiscal consolidation and reforms
Deal Team – At Your Service
•

The finance ministry has been diligently following the fiscal consolidation path.
Fiscal deficit has been restricted to 5.2% of GDP in 2012-13 below the revised
estimate of 5.3%.

•

Finance minister has set a target of fiscal deficit of 4.8% for 2013 - 14 and
reduce it to 3.0% by 2017.

•

Several structural reforms marks a shift in governments approach towards fiscal
consolidation, including
− reduction in fuel subsidy
− targeted cash delivery of subsidies
− proposed introduction of Goods & Services Tax
− further PSU divestment
− liberalized FDI regime for multi-brand retail, insurance, pensions, domestic
airlines and broadcasting
− amendment in Banking Regulation Act and Companies Act.
− setting up of Cabinet Committee on Investments
− increase in rail haulage rates and passenger fares after 10 years

CA Kajal Gandhi

3
Macroeconomic Performance Service
Deal Team – At Your
Favourable Change in Macroeconomic Variables since FY06

Key Parameters

2005-06

2011-12

Change

32,542

52,220

60% higher

33,548

46,221

38% higher

Investment / GDP (%)2

35.8

37.6**

5% higher

Exports (US $ bn)1

103

303

194 % higher

General Government Gross Debt (% GDP) 1

77.4

64.9**

16% lower

Workers Remittances (US$ bn) 2

28.0+

63.7++

127% higher

Gross International Reserves (US$ bn) 1

151#

294 ##

94% higher

Foreign Direct Investment inflow (US $ bn)

9.1

46.8

414 % higher

Foreign Direct Investment outflow (US $ bn)

6.1

25.8**

323% higher

Real GDP (INR billion)1
Real Per Capita GDP (INR)

1

Sources:
1 Reserve Bank of India data (as on March 2012)
2 IMF WEO Database April 2012
** For FY 2010-11
+ for calendar year 2006
++ for calendar year 2011
# As on 31 March 2006
## As on 30 March 2012

CA Kajal Gandhi

4
Macro Deal Team – At Your Service
Indicators - GDP

5.5

5.3

Jun-12

Sep-12

4

4.5

5.3
Mar-12

6.0

3.5

6.5

7.5

9.2

8.2

5.9

5.8

%

8
6

8.5

9.6
Dec-07

7.7

9.5
Sep-07

9.3

9.7
Jun-07

8.5

9.8
Mar-07

9.8

9.4
Dec-06

8.6

9.8
Sep-06

9.9
Mar-06

9.3

9.6
Dec-05

8.9

10

9.4

12

7.6

11.4

GDP growth has averaged at 8.5% between FY06 – 11 ,

2

Dec-12

Dec-11

Sep-11

Jun-11

Mar-11

Dec-10

Sep-10

Jun-10

Mar-10

Dec-09

Sep-09

Jun-09

Mar-09

Dec-08

Sep-08

Jun-08

Mar-08

Jun-06

Sep-05

Jun-05

0

Source: RBI, CSO

The Indian economy has been decelerating since March 2011. GDP growth reached mere 4.5% in Q3FY13 with
moderation in all three sectors of economy.
Weak monsoon impacted agricultural performance
Policy constraints, supply and infrastructure bottlenecks, reduced govt. spending impacted industrial growth.
Subdued growth in other sectors and weak external demand pulled down growth in services sector as well

CA Kajal Gandhi

5
Macro Deal Team – At Your Service
Indicators – GDP breakup
Services constituting close to 66% of GDP
16

)
YoY (%

12
8
4
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-4

FY06

FY07

FY08
Agri

FY09
Services

FY10
Industry

FY11

FY12

FY13

Source: RBI, CSO

It continues to drive growth in GDP, while both Manufacturing and Agricultural growth have been under pressure due
to various reasons

CA Kajal Gandhi

6
Macro Deal Team – At Your Service
Indicators – Channelising savings to investments
Gross Domestic Savings as % of GDP

32

35

%

30
25

24

25

26

29

33

35

37

35

35

32
28

29

30

31

25
%

40

Gross Fixed Capital Formation as % of GDP

20

23

25

24

25

30

31

33

32

30

29

26

20
15

15

10

10

5

5
0

0
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Source: RBI, CSO

Source: RBI, CSO

Savings rate continue to be greater than 30%, far higher than other emerging economies
The private sector, comprising households and corporates, remains the main contributor to saving.
To mobilize savings for the huge plan expenditure target, the FM has tried to incentivise households to invest in
financial instruments, rather than investing in physical assets like gold.
The liberalization of RGESS and proposal to introduce inflation linked bonds or saving certificates are steps in the
right direction

CA Kajal Gandhi

7
Capital Flows facilitating financing of CAD
Deal Team – At Your Service
Robust FDI and FII inflow
40.0

32.4

30.0

22.4

$ billion

7.7

22.1

18.0

15.9

20.0
10.0

30.3

27.4

17.2
9.4

7.1

0.0
-10.0

FY
07

-20.0

FY
08

FY
09

FY
10

-14.0
FDI

Source: RBI

CA Kajal Gandhi

8

FII

FY
11

FY
12
Focus Deal Team – At Your Service
on Infrastructure spending
Infrastructure investment has grown massively since 2007 supported by increased private sector participation
12

DP
%to G

10
8
6
4

1.3

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.9

3.3

5

3.9

4.2

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5

10Th plan actual

2

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12E

12th Plan Projected

0

Public

Private

Source: Secretariat for Infrastructure

12th 5 Year Plan: Emphasis on Infrastructure Investment
Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDFs) – a new step to fund long term projects
Promoting Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) for funding and execution

CA Kajal Gandhi

9
Financial Markets – At Your Service
Deal Team
Key Statistics of Indian Financial Services Industries
Industry
Life Insurance Annual Premiums
- New Business
- Renewals

Unit

FY
12

Y FY
TD 13

Rs Crore
Rs Crore

113,699
169,616

69,184
111,000

MF Industry
- AUM
- Annual Inflow

Rs Crore
Rs Crore

587,217
-22,023

813,530
184,585

Banking Industry
- Credit
- Credit G
rowth
- Deposit
- Deposit G
rowth

Rs Crore
%
Rs Crore
%

4,700,000
19.0
6,100,000
14.2

5,126,000
16.3
6,560,000
12.8

Source: Life Insurance Council, AMFI, RBI

Asset class wise allocation of financial savings trend Rs Crore
Y
ear
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
FY
08
FY
09
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12

Currency Bank deposits Non- banking deposits Life insurance fund Provident and pension fund Shares & debentures
28,160
113,030
-350
41,240
44,220
9,830
28,630
122,700
12,500
52,010
45,950
7,120
42,680
155,930
1,950
52,240
48,950
9,080
36,980
175,050
80
67,990
55,790
8,110
52,150
265,720
520
83,490
61,950
33,860
67,190
429,280
4,580
114,850
72,500
50,850
81,280
389,010
1,290
169,850
71,540
74,310
92,190
417,830
14,740
152,860
73,400
-2,330
96,940
398,140
18,520
259,820
129,850
44,840
137,130
440,470
4,390
220,730
138,980
1,730
109,020
492,670
14,850
223,430
151,610
-6,510

Source: RBI Handbook

CA Kajal Gandhi

10

O
thers Change in Financial Savings assets
49,904
286,034
54,462
323,372
78,643
389,473
103,165
447,165
86,502
584,192
25,421
764,671
-14,895
772,385
-21,801
726,889
41,688
989,798
47,878
991,308
-15,991
969,079
Companies – At Your Service
Deal Team Market share in Insurance NBP and MF AUM
MF AUM market share (Avg Dec’12) – (|793000 crore)
H FC
D
13%

O
thers
22%

R
eliance
12%

ID
FC
4%
D Blackrock
SP
K
otak 4%

IC I
IC
10%
Birla
10%

U
TI
9%

4%
Franklin
SBI
5%
7%

Life Insurance NBP market share (Q3FY13)
SBI Life
18%

O
thers
29%

HDFC Standard
14%

Birla Sunlife
6%
K
otak
Mahindra O
ld
Mutual
3% Reliance Life
Source: RBI Handbook

Source: Life Insurance Council, AMFI, RBI

CA Kajal Gandhi

Bajaj Allianz
10%

ICICI Prudential
17%

5%

11
Credit to GDP ratio

20.0
10.0

Credit growth

Deposit growth

3.0
2.0

2.9

1.0

13*
FY

12
FY

11
FY

10
FY

09
FY

08
FY

07
FY

0.0

4.0
(X)

80.0
78.0
76.0
74.0
72.0
70.0
68.0

)
(%

)
(%

30.0

2.4

2.6

FY08

FY09

2.5

2.6

FY11

FY12

2.1

0.0
FY07

FY10

CD ratio

Credit multiplier

Historically, it has been observed that credit has grown at ~2.5x the GDP growth of India. Considering GDP
growth is estimated to remain modest at 6% for FY14E and 7%, thereafter, we believe credit to grow at ~16%
for the next year and then may pick up some pace

CA Kajal Gandhi

12
Banking sector – aggregate B/S (20% CAGR over FY06-12)
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

06-12 CAGR

25206.51

29559.4

39965

44038

48648

59243

63700

16.7%

Reserves & surplus

157974.64

189619.15

275524

324219

381477

450648

544900

22.9%

Deposit

2164681.7

2696936.5

3320061

4063203

4752455

5616431

6453800

20.0%

Demand deposit

292945.21

354895.9

442055

472578

571019

641938

630400

13.6%

Saving

542874.82

631651.95

744052

874540

1109914

1351781

1528900

18.8%

Term deposit

1328861.7

1710388.7

2133954

2716085

3071522

3622712

4294500

21.6%

Borrowing

203147.83

243010.07

302629

323185

524763

673925

840100

26.7%

Other Liabilities & provisions

234852.53

300836.7

387987

486686

317797.91

383274

397000

9.1%

2785863

3459962

4326166

5241331

6025141

7183521

8299500

20.0%

144475.42

195265.66

322971

297264

365813

458783

373700

17.2%

with banks

116443.7

158302.53

109109

198581

183456

191206

243800

13.1%

Investment

866508.35

950981.92

1177330

1449474.6

1719185

1916050

2230481

17.1%

690421.28

754446.48

925724

1164444.6

1367056

1457655

1742860

16.7%

1516811.4

1981236.4

2476934

3000905

3497053.4

4298705

5074600

22.3%

103657.7

124292.64

150987

173910

189585

241600

292100

18.8%

Cash credit & overdraft

565001.16

709803.04

888882

1113557

1299142

1692042

2004400

23.5%

Term loan

848152.57

1147140.7

1437065

1713438

2008326.4

2365063

2778100

21.9%

Fixed asset

25081.57

31362.83

42395

48362

49564

54093

56700

14.6%

Other asset

116542.79

142812.56

197426

246743

210070

264682

320100

18.3%

Total asset

2785863

3459962

4326165

5241330

6025141

7183519

8299381

20.0%

Liabilities
Capital

Total Liabilities

Assets
Cash & balances with RBI

Government sec.
Loans & advances net adv
Bills purchased & discounted

CA Kajal Gandhi

13
Banking sector – aggregate P&L (22% CAGR over FY06-12)
2006
2007
Interest income 185388 231675
Interest exp. 107161 142420
Net Interest Income78227 89255
Other income
35368 43041
Total income
113595 132296
Operating exp. 59201 66319
Wage
33461 36148
Other cost
25740 30171
Provision
29812 34775
Net profit
24582 31202

CA Kajal Gandhi

2008
309570
208001
101569
59315
160884
77220
39806
37414
40939
42725

2009
388482
263223
125259
75220
200479
89581
47974
41607
58148
52750

14

2010
415752
272084
143668
78519
222187
99769
55164
44605
65310
57108

2011
491667
298891
192776
79564
272340
123129
71950
51179
78879
70332

2012 06-12 CAGR
655100
23%
430500
26%
224600
19%
85700
16%
310300
18%
137100
15%
78000
15%
59100
15%
91500
21%
81700
22%
Banking sector – Dupont Analysis (% of average assets)
2007
Net Interest Income
Other income
Total income
Operating exp.
Wage
Other cost
Provision
Net profit

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2.86
1.38
4.24
2.12
1.16
0.97
1.11
1.00

2.61
1.52
4.13
1.98
1.02
0.96
1.05
1.10

2.62
1.57
4.19
1.87
1.00
0.87
1.22
1.10

2.55
1.39
3.94
1.77
0.98
0.79
1.16
1.01

2.92
1.20
4.12
1.86
1.09
0.77
1.19
1.06

2.90
1.11
4.01
1.77
1.01
0.76
1.18
1.06

Fee based income and trading gains have seen declining trend
Cost rationalisation with growing assets but wage provisions to be high
PCR – provisions have been rising due to NPAs

CA Kajal Gandhi

15
Banking sector – Key Ratios
Further breakup of RoA depicts private Sector Banks more profitable

Public sector banks
1.1 Nationalised banks
1.2 SBI G
roup
Private sector banks
2.1 O private sector banks
ld
2.2 New private sector banks
Foreign banks
All SCBs

CA Kajal Gandhi

RoA (%
)
2010-11
2011-12
0.96
0.88
1.03
0.88
0.79
0.89
1.43
1.53
1.12
1.2
1.51
1.63
1.75
1.76
1.1
1.08

16

RoE (%
)
2010-11
2011-12
16.9
15.33
18.19
15.05
14.11
16
13.7
15.25
14.11
15.18
13.62
15.27
10.28
10.79
14.96
14.6
Banking sector – Asset quality pressures surging
Exhibit 1: Stressed assets (SA) including NNPA & RA increase significantly

2.9
2.5

2.4
100000

1.8
1.2

FY09

0

183000
94360

1.0

137102
61500

1.1

97922
41813

1.1

84747
38723

50000

2.4

68973
31424

(| crore)

150000

FY10

FY11

FY12

500000
6.5

300000
200000
100000

10.0

7.9

400000
(| crore)

3.5

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

)
(%

200000

3.2
2.2
91803

4.1

8.0
5.3

3.6

6.1 6.0
4.0

3.0

2.7
136557 148672 311500

)
(%

Exhibit 1: NPA trend over the years

2.0
414360
0.0

9MFY13

0

FY09
RA

GNPA

NNPA

Source: RBI, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

GNPA ratio

SA

FY10

FY11

FY12E 9MFY13

RA as %of advances

SA as %of advances

NNPA ratio
Source: RBI, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research

For the past couple of years, the asset quality deterioration has been creating a lot of uncertainties in the
bottomline of banks.

The absolute gross NPA of the industry has increased from | 97,922 crore in FY11 to | 137102 crore in
FY12 and further to | 1,83,000 crore in Q3FY13. Similarly, restructured assets (RA) have increased from |
1,06,859 crore in FY11 to | 2,57,000 crore in FY12 and further to ~| 3,20,000 crore as on Q3FY13. Going
forward, we believe the economic slowdown will continue to keep the trend of slippages and restructuring
at elevated levels. Albeit, the pace may reduce as most of the pain seems to be taken in the books.

CA Kajal Gandhi

17
Basel III requirement estimates
The domestic banking industry will require | 2.7 lakh crore capital by March 2018 to meet its
tier-I capital requirement under Basel III framework as per Crisil estimates.
The tier-I capital of most PSU banks is on the lower side at ~8-9% in FY13. They will be
required to raise significant capital for funding their future growth two years down the line. A
challenge for government and need for more capital instruments.
Basel III requires total capital of 9% +2.5% countercyclical Buffer

Tier I capital required at 7% by 2018 (as per RBI)

Basel II
Capital funds (i+ ii)
i) Tier I capital
ii) Tier II capital
Risk-weighted assets
CRAR (A as %of
of which: Tier I
Tier II

CA Kajal Gandhi

Rs. Crore
2010-11
2011-12
6,703
7,780
4,745
5,672
1,958
2,109
47,249
54,623
14.2
14.2
10
10.4
4.1
3.9

18

Tier I capital accounted for more than 70
% of the total capital of Indian banks
both under Basel I and II, reflecting the
sound capital position of banks.
Banking sector – Key statistics (FY12)
Balance Sheet operations
Total Liabilities/Assets
Deposits
Borrowings
Loans and Advances
Investments
O
ff-balance Sheet E
xposure (As percentage
Total C
onsolidated International C
laims
Profitability
Net Profit
R
eturn on Asset (R
oA) (Per cent)
R
eturn on E
quity (R ) (Per cent)
oE
Net Interest Margin (NIM) (Per cent)
Asset Q
uality
G
ross NPAs
Net NPAs
Total Provisions made
G
ross NPA R
atio (G
ross NPAs as percentage of G
ross Advances)
Net NPA R
atio (Net NPAs as percentage of Net Advances)
Provisioning C
overage R
atio (Per cent)
Slippage R
atio (Per cent)
Written-off R
atio (Per cent)
Sectoral Deployment of Bank C
redit
Total Non-food G
ross Bank C
redit
Agriculture and Allied Activities
Industry
Services
Personal Loans

CA Kajal Gandhi

19

82,994
64,537
8,401
50,746
22,305
175.9
2,809
817
1.08
14.6
2.9
1,423
649
747
3.1
1.4
53
3
4
42,897
5,226
19,659
10,330
7,683
Incremental Non Food Credit growth

Incremental nonfood credit
growth (%
)
Agriculture
Industry
Services
R
etail loan
Housing loan
(including
Priority Sector
Housing)

CA Kajal Gandhi

Mar-10
17.68
58.67
18.37
5.28

Mar-11
7.05
49.32
25.78
17.85

4.92

9.16

20

Mar-12 Jan-13
9.99
10.4
55.69
48.5
20.61
12
13.71
29

7.12

16.6
Bank NIMs
NIM (%)
Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13
PSU coverage
Bank of India
2.9
2.8
3.1
2.9
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.3
2.4
2.4
Bank of Baroda
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.5
2.9
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
Dena Bank
2.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
Indian Overseas Bank 2.9
3.0
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.5
IDBI Bank
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.3
Punjab National Bank 3.9
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
State Bank of India
3.2
3.4 3.4(Q3-3.61)
3.32(Q4-3.07) 3.6
3.8
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.3
Syndicate Bank
3.1
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.2
3.3
3.3
Private coverage
Axis Bank
3.7
City Union Bank
3.6
Development Credit Bank
3.1
Dhanlaxmi bank
2.6
Federal Bank
4.2
HDFC Bank
4.3
Jammu & Kashmir Bank
Kotak Mahindra Bank 5.4
South Indian Bank
2.8
Yes Bank
3.1

CA Kajal Gandhi

3.7
3.7
3.1
2.4
4.4
4.2
3.7
5.2
3.0
3.0

3.8
3.5
3.1
2.6
4.3
4.2
3.7
5.4
3.0
2.8

3.4
3.8
3.2
3.0
4.0
4.2
3.7
5.3
2.8
2.8

3.3
3.6
3.1
2.0
3.9
4.2
3.8
5.0
2.8
2.8

21

3.8
3.4
3.4
2.2
3.8
4.1
3.8
4.8
3.0
2.9

3.8
3.2
3.4
1.8
3.9
4.1
3.6
4.7
3.1
2.8

3.6
3.4
3.1
1.8
3.6
4.2
3.9
4.8
3.1
2.8

3.4
3.2
3.2
2.5
3.4
4.3
3.8
4.7
3.2
2.8

3.5
3.3
3.2
2.0
3.6
4.2
3.9
4.7
3.1
2.9

3.6
3.5
3.4
~2.54
3.5
4.1
4.1
4.6
3.2
3.0
Market Share
Deal Team – At Your Service
Market Share in Advances
FY06
Public Sector Banks
BO
B
BO
I
Dena
IO
B
O
BC
PNB
SBI
Syndicate Bank
UBI
Private Sector Banks
Axis
City Union Bank
DCB
Dhanlaxmi
Federal Bank
HDFC Bank
Kotak Bank
SIB
Yes

CA Kajal Gandhi

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13E

3.3
3.5
0.9
2.2
2.2
5.0
15.6
2.4
3.5

3.5
3.5
0.9
2.3
2.3
5.0
15.5
2.7
3.2

3.6
3.8
1.0
2.4
2.3
5.1
15.3
2.7
3.1

3.9
4.1
1.0
2.4
2.5
5.4
16.5
2.9
3.5

4.1
4.1
1.1
2.2
2.6
5.5
16.5
2.8
3.7

4.3
4.1
1.1
2.6
2.4
5.8
16.5
2.7
3.8

4.4
3.8
1.2
2.7
2.4
5.9
15.9
2.7
3.9

4.3
3.9
1.2
2.8
2.4
6.1
16.2
2.7
3.9

1.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.8
2.3
0.4
0.4
0.2

1.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.8
2.4
0.6
0.4
0.3

2.5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.8
2.7
0.7
0.4
0.4

2.9
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.8
3.6
0.6
0.4
0.4

3.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.8
3.9
0.6
0.5
0.7

3.6
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.8
4.1
0.7
0.5
0.9

3.7
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.8
4.2
0.8
0.6
0.8

3.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.8
4.3
0.9
0.6
0.8

22
Indian Deal Team – At–Your Service
Capital Markets some key statistics
•
•
•

India has 21 stock exchanges with NSE and BSE as premier exchanges with
combined daily average turnover of over Rs 1662 billion.
FII investment of $24.8 billion in Equities and $4.7 billion in debt in YTD FY13
Market Regulators
− Reserve Bank of India (RBI)
− Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)

Key Statistics

•

Market Capitalization
− BSE: $ 1176 billion
− NSE: $ 1153 billion
− Corporate Debt: $ 200 billion
− Government Securities: $ 722 billion

CA Kajal Gandhi

23
Indian Deal Team – At Your Service
Capital Markets
Participation in Markets

Average daily turnover of Rs 1662 billion
1%

8%

18%

17%

6%

50%

25%
DII

FII

Prop

75%

Retail

BSE cash
Source: BSE, NSE

Source: BSE, NSE

BSE derivatives

NSE cash

NSE derivatives

Net Investment by the FIIs in India (US$ billion)
40.0

USD Billion

30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

-20.0
Source: Bloomberg

FII Debt

CA Kajal Gandhi

24

FII Equity

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13 YTD
Thank You

April 2013

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Macro Economic and Banking

  • 1. Macro Economic Overview and Banking Research April 2013 CA Kajal Gandhi
  • 2. Strong, Stable Growth Your Service Deal Team – At • India’s medium term growth prospects remain strong on account of − Favourable demographics − Resilient economic structure − Stable democratic institutions − Continued infrastructure • While growth has averaged at 8.5% between FY06 – 11, even in the face of a severe and persistent global slowdown, GDP growth is expected to be around 5.0% in 2012-13. • The private sector plays a key role in driving investment. Economic growth is largely domestically generated by high savings / investment, making it less vulnerable to adverse external developments CA Kajal Gandhi 2
  • 3. Commitment to fiscal consolidation and reforms Deal Team – At Your Service • The finance ministry has been diligently following the fiscal consolidation path. Fiscal deficit has been restricted to 5.2% of GDP in 2012-13 below the revised estimate of 5.3%. • Finance minister has set a target of fiscal deficit of 4.8% for 2013 - 14 and reduce it to 3.0% by 2017. • Several structural reforms marks a shift in governments approach towards fiscal consolidation, including − reduction in fuel subsidy − targeted cash delivery of subsidies − proposed introduction of Goods & Services Tax − further PSU divestment − liberalized FDI regime for multi-brand retail, insurance, pensions, domestic airlines and broadcasting − amendment in Banking Regulation Act and Companies Act. − setting up of Cabinet Committee on Investments − increase in rail haulage rates and passenger fares after 10 years CA Kajal Gandhi 3
  • 4. Macroeconomic Performance Service Deal Team – At Your Favourable Change in Macroeconomic Variables since FY06 Key Parameters 2005-06 2011-12 Change 32,542 52,220 60% higher 33,548 46,221 38% higher Investment / GDP (%)2 35.8 37.6** 5% higher Exports (US $ bn)1 103 303 194 % higher General Government Gross Debt (% GDP) 1 77.4 64.9** 16% lower Workers Remittances (US$ bn) 2 28.0+ 63.7++ 127% higher Gross International Reserves (US$ bn) 1 151# 294 ## 94% higher Foreign Direct Investment inflow (US $ bn) 9.1 46.8 414 % higher Foreign Direct Investment outflow (US $ bn) 6.1 25.8** 323% higher Real GDP (INR billion)1 Real Per Capita GDP (INR) 1 Sources: 1 Reserve Bank of India data (as on March 2012) 2 IMF WEO Database April 2012 ** For FY 2010-11 + for calendar year 2006 ++ for calendar year 2011 # As on 31 March 2006 ## As on 30 March 2012 CA Kajal Gandhi 4
  • 5. Macro Deal Team – At Your Service Indicators - GDP 5.5 5.3 Jun-12 Sep-12 4 4.5 5.3 Mar-12 6.0 3.5 6.5 7.5 9.2 8.2 5.9 5.8 % 8 6 8.5 9.6 Dec-07 7.7 9.5 Sep-07 9.3 9.7 Jun-07 8.5 9.8 Mar-07 9.8 9.4 Dec-06 8.6 9.8 Sep-06 9.9 Mar-06 9.3 9.6 Dec-05 8.9 10 9.4 12 7.6 11.4 GDP growth has averaged at 8.5% between FY06 – 11 , 2 Dec-12 Dec-11 Sep-11 Jun-11 Mar-11 Dec-10 Sep-10 Jun-10 Mar-10 Dec-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Mar-09 Dec-08 Sep-08 Jun-08 Mar-08 Jun-06 Sep-05 Jun-05 0 Source: RBI, CSO The Indian economy has been decelerating since March 2011. GDP growth reached mere 4.5% in Q3FY13 with moderation in all three sectors of economy. Weak monsoon impacted agricultural performance Policy constraints, supply and infrastructure bottlenecks, reduced govt. spending impacted industrial growth. Subdued growth in other sectors and weak external demand pulled down growth in services sector as well CA Kajal Gandhi 5
  • 6. Macro Deal Team – At Your Service Indicators – GDP breakup Services constituting close to 66% of GDP 16 ) YoY (% 12 8 4 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 -4 FY06 FY07 FY08 Agri FY09 Services FY10 Industry FY11 FY12 FY13 Source: RBI, CSO It continues to drive growth in GDP, while both Manufacturing and Agricultural growth have been under pressure due to various reasons CA Kajal Gandhi 6
  • 7. Macro Deal Team – At Your Service Indicators – Channelising savings to investments Gross Domestic Savings as % of GDP 32 35 % 30 25 24 25 26 29 33 35 37 35 35 32 28 29 30 31 25 % 40 Gross Fixed Capital Formation as % of GDP 20 23 25 24 25 30 31 33 32 30 29 26 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: RBI, CSO Source: RBI, CSO Savings rate continue to be greater than 30%, far higher than other emerging economies The private sector, comprising households and corporates, remains the main contributor to saving. To mobilize savings for the huge plan expenditure target, the FM has tried to incentivise households to invest in financial instruments, rather than investing in physical assets like gold. The liberalization of RGESS and proposal to introduce inflation linked bonds or saving certificates are steps in the right direction CA Kajal Gandhi 7
  • 8. Capital Flows facilitating financing of CAD Deal Team – At Your Service Robust FDI and FII inflow 40.0 32.4 30.0 22.4 $ billion 7.7 22.1 18.0 15.9 20.0 10.0 30.3 27.4 17.2 9.4 7.1 0.0 -10.0 FY 07 -20.0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 -14.0 FDI Source: RBI CA Kajal Gandhi 8 FII FY 11 FY 12
  • 9. Focus Deal Team – At Your Service on Infrastructure spending Infrastructure investment has grown massively since 2007 supported by increased private sector participation 12 DP %to G 10 8 6 4 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3 5 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5 10Th plan actual 2 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E 12th Plan Projected 0 Public Private Source: Secretariat for Infrastructure 12th 5 Year Plan: Emphasis on Infrastructure Investment Infrastructure Debt Funds (IDFs) – a new step to fund long term projects Promoting Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) for funding and execution CA Kajal Gandhi 9
  • 10. Financial Markets – At Your Service Deal Team Key Statistics of Indian Financial Services Industries Industry Life Insurance Annual Premiums - New Business - Renewals Unit FY 12 Y FY TD 13 Rs Crore Rs Crore 113,699 169,616 69,184 111,000 MF Industry - AUM - Annual Inflow Rs Crore Rs Crore 587,217 -22,023 813,530 184,585 Banking Industry - Credit - Credit G rowth - Deposit - Deposit G rowth Rs Crore % Rs Crore % 4,700,000 19.0 6,100,000 14.2 5,126,000 16.3 6,560,000 12.8 Source: Life Insurance Council, AMFI, RBI Asset class wise allocation of financial savings trend Rs Crore Y ear FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 FY 06 FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 Currency Bank deposits Non- banking deposits Life insurance fund Provident and pension fund Shares & debentures 28,160 113,030 -350 41,240 44,220 9,830 28,630 122,700 12,500 52,010 45,950 7,120 42,680 155,930 1,950 52,240 48,950 9,080 36,980 175,050 80 67,990 55,790 8,110 52,150 265,720 520 83,490 61,950 33,860 67,190 429,280 4,580 114,850 72,500 50,850 81,280 389,010 1,290 169,850 71,540 74,310 92,190 417,830 14,740 152,860 73,400 -2,330 96,940 398,140 18,520 259,820 129,850 44,840 137,130 440,470 4,390 220,730 138,980 1,730 109,020 492,670 14,850 223,430 151,610 -6,510 Source: RBI Handbook CA Kajal Gandhi 10 O thers Change in Financial Savings assets 49,904 286,034 54,462 323,372 78,643 389,473 103,165 447,165 86,502 584,192 25,421 764,671 -14,895 772,385 -21,801 726,889 41,688 989,798 47,878 991,308 -15,991 969,079
  • 11. Companies – At Your Service Deal Team Market share in Insurance NBP and MF AUM MF AUM market share (Avg Dec’12) – (|793000 crore) H FC D 13% O thers 22% R eliance 12% ID FC 4% D Blackrock SP K otak 4% IC I IC 10% Birla 10% U TI 9% 4% Franklin SBI 5% 7% Life Insurance NBP market share (Q3FY13) SBI Life 18% O thers 29% HDFC Standard 14% Birla Sunlife 6% K otak Mahindra O ld Mutual 3% Reliance Life Source: RBI Handbook Source: Life Insurance Council, AMFI, RBI CA Kajal Gandhi Bajaj Allianz 10% ICICI Prudential 17% 5% 11
  • 12. Credit to GDP ratio 20.0 10.0 Credit growth Deposit growth 3.0 2.0 2.9 1.0 13* FY 12 FY 11 FY 10 FY 09 FY 08 FY 07 FY 0.0 4.0 (X) 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 ) (% ) (% 30.0 2.4 2.6 FY08 FY09 2.5 2.6 FY11 FY12 2.1 0.0 FY07 FY10 CD ratio Credit multiplier Historically, it has been observed that credit has grown at ~2.5x the GDP growth of India. Considering GDP growth is estimated to remain modest at 6% for FY14E and 7%, thereafter, we believe credit to grow at ~16% for the next year and then may pick up some pace CA Kajal Gandhi 12
  • 13. Banking sector – aggregate B/S (20% CAGR over FY06-12) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 06-12 CAGR 25206.51 29559.4 39965 44038 48648 59243 63700 16.7% Reserves & surplus 157974.64 189619.15 275524 324219 381477 450648 544900 22.9% Deposit 2164681.7 2696936.5 3320061 4063203 4752455 5616431 6453800 20.0% Demand deposit 292945.21 354895.9 442055 472578 571019 641938 630400 13.6% Saving 542874.82 631651.95 744052 874540 1109914 1351781 1528900 18.8% Term deposit 1328861.7 1710388.7 2133954 2716085 3071522 3622712 4294500 21.6% Borrowing 203147.83 243010.07 302629 323185 524763 673925 840100 26.7% Other Liabilities & provisions 234852.53 300836.7 387987 486686 317797.91 383274 397000 9.1% 2785863 3459962 4326166 5241331 6025141 7183521 8299500 20.0% 144475.42 195265.66 322971 297264 365813 458783 373700 17.2% with banks 116443.7 158302.53 109109 198581 183456 191206 243800 13.1% Investment 866508.35 950981.92 1177330 1449474.6 1719185 1916050 2230481 17.1% 690421.28 754446.48 925724 1164444.6 1367056 1457655 1742860 16.7% 1516811.4 1981236.4 2476934 3000905 3497053.4 4298705 5074600 22.3% 103657.7 124292.64 150987 173910 189585 241600 292100 18.8% Cash credit & overdraft 565001.16 709803.04 888882 1113557 1299142 1692042 2004400 23.5% Term loan 848152.57 1147140.7 1437065 1713438 2008326.4 2365063 2778100 21.9% Fixed asset 25081.57 31362.83 42395 48362 49564 54093 56700 14.6% Other asset 116542.79 142812.56 197426 246743 210070 264682 320100 18.3% Total asset 2785863 3459962 4326165 5241330 6025141 7183519 8299381 20.0% Liabilities Capital Total Liabilities Assets Cash & balances with RBI Government sec. Loans & advances net adv Bills purchased & discounted CA Kajal Gandhi 13
  • 14. Banking sector – aggregate P&L (22% CAGR over FY06-12) 2006 2007 Interest income 185388 231675 Interest exp. 107161 142420 Net Interest Income78227 89255 Other income 35368 43041 Total income 113595 132296 Operating exp. 59201 66319 Wage 33461 36148 Other cost 25740 30171 Provision 29812 34775 Net profit 24582 31202 CA Kajal Gandhi 2008 309570 208001 101569 59315 160884 77220 39806 37414 40939 42725 2009 388482 263223 125259 75220 200479 89581 47974 41607 58148 52750 14 2010 415752 272084 143668 78519 222187 99769 55164 44605 65310 57108 2011 491667 298891 192776 79564 272340 123129 71950 51179 78879 70332 2012 06-12 CAGR 655100 23% 430500 26% 224600 19% 85700 16% 310300 18% 137100 15% 78000 15% 59100 15% 91500 21% 81700 22%
  • 15. Banking sector – Dupont Analysis (% of average assets) 2007 Net Interest Income Other income Total income Operating exp. Wage Other cost Provision Net profit 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2.86 1.38 4.24 2.12 1.16 0.97 1.11 1.00 2.61 1.52 4.13 1.98 1.02 0.96 1.05 1.10 2.62 1.57 4.19 1.87 1.00 0.87 1.22 1.10 2.55 1.39 3.94 1.77 0.98 0.79 1.16 1.01 2.92 1.20 4.12 1.86 1.09 0.77 1.19 1.06 2.90 1.11 4.01 1.77 1.01 0.76 1.18 1.06 Fee based income and trading gains have seen declining trend Cost rationalisation with growing assets but wage provisions to be high PCR – provisions have been rising due to NPAs CA Kajal Gandhi 15
  • 16. Banking sector – Key Ratios Further breakup of RoA depicts private Sector Banks more profitable Public sector banks 1.1 Nationalised banks 1.2 SBI G roup Private sector banks 2.1 O private sector banks ld 2.2 New private sector banks Foreign banks All SCBs CA Kajal Gandhi RoA (% ) 2010-11 2011-12 0.96 0.88 1.03 0.88 0.79 0.89 1.43 1.53 1.12 1.2 1.51 1.63 1.75 1.76 1.1 1.08 16 RoE (% ) 2010-11 2011-12 16.9 15.33 18.19 15.05 14.11 16 13.7 15.25 14.11 15.18 13.62 15.27 10.28 10.79 14.96 14.6
  • 17. Banking sector – Asset quality pressures surging Exhibit 1: Stressed assets (SA) including NNPA & RA increase significantly 2.9 2.5 2.4 100000 1.8 1.2 FY09 0 183000 94360 1.0 137102 61500 1.1 97922 41813 1.1 84747 38723 50000 2.4 68973 31424 (| crore) 150000 FY10 FY11 FY12 500000 6.5 300000 200000 100000 10.0 7.9 400000 (| crore) 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 ) (% 200000 3.2 2.2 91803 4.1 8.0 5.3 3.6 6.1 6.0 4.0 3.0 2.7 136557 148672 311500 ) (% Exhibit 1: NPA trend over the years 2.0 414360 0.0 9MFY13 0 FY09 RA GNPA NNPA Source: RBI, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research GNPA ratio SA FY10 FY11 FY12E 9MFY13 RA as %of advances SA as %of advances NNPA ratio Source: RBI, Capitaline, ICICIdirect.com Research For the past couple of years, the asset quality deterioration has been creating a lot of uncertainties in the bottomline of banks. The absolute gross NPA of the industry has increased from | 97,922 crore in FY11 to | 137102 crore in FY12 and further to | 1,83,000 crore in Q3FY13. Similarly, restructured assets (RA) have increased from | 1,06,859 crore in FY11 to | 2,57,000 crore in FY12 and further to ~| 3,20,000 crore as on Q3FY13. Going forward, we believe the economic slowdown will continue to keep the trend of slippages and restructuring at elevated levels. Albeit, the pace may reduce as most of the pain seems to be taken in the books. CA Kajal Gandhi 17
  • 18. Basel III requirement estimates The domestic banking industry will require | 2.7 lakh crore capital by March 2018 to meet its tier-I capital requirement under Basel III framework as per Crisil estimates. The tier-I capital of most PSU banks is on the lower side at ~8-9% in FY13. They will be required to raise significant capital for funding their future growth two years down the line. A challenge for government and need for more capital instruments. Basel III requires total capital of 9% +2.5% countercyclical Buffer Tier I capital required at 7% by 2018 (as per RBI) Basel II Capital funds (i+ ii) i) Tier I capital ii) Tier II capital Risk-weighted assets CRAR (A as %of of which: Tier I Tier II CA Kajal Gandhi Rs. Crore 2010-11 2011-12 6,703 7,780 4,745 5,672 1,958 2,109 47,249 54,623 14.2 14.2 10 10.4 4.1 3.9 18 Tier I capital accounted for more than 70 % of the total capital of Indian banks both under Basel I and II, reflecting the sound capital position of banks.
  • 19. Banking sector – Key statistics (FY12) Balance Sheet operations Total Liabilities/Assets Deposits Borrowings Loans and Advances Investments O ff-balance Sheet E xposure (As percentage Total C onsolidated International C laims Profitability Net Profit R eturn on Asset (R oA) (Per cent) R eturn on E quity (R ) (Per cent) oE Net Interest Margin (NIM) (Per cent) Asset Q uality G ross NPAs Net NPAs Total Provisions made G ross NPA R atio (G ross NPAs as percentage of G ross Advances) Net NPA R atio (Net NPAs as percentage of Net Advances) Provisioning C overage R atio (Per cent) Slippage R atio (Per cent) Written-off R atio (Per cent) Sectoral Deployment of Bank C redit Total Non-food G ross Bank C redit Agriculture and Allied Activities Industry Services Personal Loans CA Kajal Gandhi 19 82,994 64,537 8,401 50,746 22,305 175.9 2,809 817 1.08 14.6 2.9 1,423 649 747 3.1 1.4 53 3 4 42,897 5,226 19,659 10,330 7,683
  • 20. Incremental Non Food Credit growth Incremental nonfood credit growth (% ) Agriculture Industry Services R etail loan Housing loan (including Priority Sector Housing) CA Kajal Gandhi Mar-10 17.68 58.67 18.37 5.28 Mar-11 7.05 49.32 25.78 17.85 4.92 9.16 20 Mar-12 Jan-13 9.99 10.4 55.69 48.5 20.61 12 13.71 29 7.12 16.6
  • 21. Bank NIMs NIM (%) Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 PSU coverage Bank of India 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 Bank of Baroda 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 Dena Bank 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 Indian Overseas Bank 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.5 IDBI Bank 1.6 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 Punjab National Bank 3.9 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 State Bank of India 3.2 3.4 3.4(Q3-3.61) 3.32(Q4-3.07) 3.6 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.3 Syndicate Bank 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 Private coverage Axis Bank 3.7 City Union Bank 3.6 Development Credit Bank 3.1 Dhanlaxmi bank 2.6 Federal Bank 4.2 HDFC Bank 4.3 Jammu & Kashmir Bank Kotak Mahindra Bank 5.4 South Indian Bank 2.8 Yes Bank 3.1 CA Kajal Gandhi 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.4 4.4 4.2 3.7 5.2 3.0 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.6 4.3 4.2 3.7 5.4 3.0 2.8 3.4 3.8 3.2 3.0 4.0 4.2 3.7 5.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.1 2.0 3.9 4.2 3.8 5.0 2.8 2.8 21 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.2 3.8 4.1 3.8 4.8 3.0 2.9 3.8 3.2 3.4 1.8 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.7 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 1.8 3.6 4.2 3.9 4.8 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.5 3.4 4.3 3.8 4.7 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.0 3.6 4.2 3.9 4.7 3.1 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 ~2.54 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.6 3.2 3.0
  • 22. Market Share Deal Team – At Your Service Market Share in Advances FY06 Public Sector Banks BO B BO I Dena IO B O BC PNB SBI Syndicate Bank UBI Private Sector Banks Axis City Union Bank DCB Dhanlaxmi Federal Bank HDFC Bank Kotak Bank SIB Yes CA Kajal Gandhi FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E 3.3 3.5 0.9 2.2 2.2 5.0 15.6 2.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.9 2.3 2.3 5.0 15.5 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.8 1.0 2.4 2.3 5.1 15.3 2.7 3.1 3.9 4.1 1.0 2.4 2.5 5.4 16.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.1 1.1 2.2 2.6 5.5 16.5 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.1 1.1 2.6 2.4 5.8 16.5 2.7 3.8 4.4 3.8 1.2 2.7 2.4 5.9 15.9 2.7 3.9 4.3 3.9 1.2 2.8 2.4 6.1 16.2 2.7 3.9 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 2.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.8 2.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 2.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 3.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 3.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 3.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 3.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 3.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.8 4.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 22
  • 23. Indian Deal Team – At–Your Service Capital Markets some key statistics • • • India has 21 stock exchanges with NSE and BSE as premier exchanges with combined daily average turnover of over Rs 1662 billion. FII investment of $24.8 billion in Equities and $4.7 billion in debt in YTD FY13 Market Regulators − Reserve Bank of India (RBI) − Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Key Statistics • Market Capitalization − BSE: $ 1176 billion − NSE: $ 1153 billion − Corporate Debt: $ 200 billion − Government Securities: $ 722 billion CA Kajal Gandhi 23
  • 24. Indian Deal Team – At Your Service Capital Markets Participation in Markets Average daily turnover of Rs 1662 billion 1% 8% 18% 17% 6% 50% 25% DII FII Prop 75% Retail BSE cash Source: BSE, NSE Source: BSE, NSE BSE derivatives NSE cash NSE derivatives Net Investment by the FIIs in India (US$ billion) 40.0 USD Billion 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 -20.0 Source: Bloomberg FII Debt CA Kajal Gandhi 24 FII Equity FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 YTD