Scenario Planning

1. SCENARIO PLANNING – Course Outline
Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of
creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine
uncertainty. (Pierre Wack)
Scenario planning opens the future to multiple perspectives – rather than a single,
business-as-usual, view of what the future will hold. Scenario approach is a
methodology, providing space for input from stakeholders, expert and non-traditional -
even maverick - views. The methodology is capable of integrating the multitude of
seemingly unrelated, often chaotic, inputs into a limited number of coherent, internally
consistent stories about the future; thus providing a basis for building successful
strategies and organizations.
Scenario planning is not about forecasting the future but looking at all the possibilities. It
involves using and building on a key resource - the information already known by people
within the organization, but enriched with external non-traditional perspectives. Scenario
based thinking is a powerful and effective tool to drive strategy and organizational
development towards managerial and organizational success.
To remain effective in strategy and inter-active policy and to avoid policy disasters the
policy makers need to be able to handle increasing levels of dynamic complexity. Being
able to notice “dots on the horizon” and bringing possible future developments into the
strategic conversation in a timely manner is a key skill.
Scenario based thinking enables policy makers and strategists to:
q Explore multiple, plausible, pathways into the future.
q Approach the issues from multi-disciplinary perspectives
q Tap into relevant disciplinary expert knowledge and embed this in the broader policy
perspective
q Tap into new and non-traditional views on the issue
q Involve a broad spectrum of key stakeholders in the strategic conversations
The course is focused on organizational survival: the reasons why private-sector
organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it. Within public-sector
organizations, the focus remains on the failure or ineffectiveness of policy development.
Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and
behavioral flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. This Course explains
what these flaws are and how the scenario based approach helps senior managers and
organizations to overcome them. The approach is based on reasoning, research, real
world observations – and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking,
combining the most effective elements of many scenario approaches that have been
tried over time.
This course is aimed at explaining why Scenario Planning:
q Is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build
successful strategies and organizations.

2. q Is valuable in resolving a strategic issue or problem – current or potential – by
enabling innovation and creative thinking “outside the box”.
q Can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.
q Supports effective organizational learning and development.
q Is a key component of a wider strategic and organizational learning framework,
essential for organizational survival.
The methodology can be traced back to hundreds of years of experience with war
games by the military but it is only in the last 30 years, in the face of increasing
uncertainty and complexity, that corporations and other large, global organizations have
begun to develop sophisticated scenario planning processes. Through the services of
the Center these approaches are now available to a wide spectrum of organizations,
including both the public and private sectors, and their managers.
The Course is based on gaining knowledge by participation and is highly interactive.
Participants work in groups, select a case “client” – one of the delegates – and analyze
the case in some depth using the components of our scenario thinking process. As such,
delegates will gain confidence in the use of tools to deal with uncertainty, ambiguity and
risk in policy /strategy development.
Course aims and description
During the Course, delegates will develop multiple scenarios and strategy analysis for
the selected case and present these outcomes to the whole class for discussion and
analysis. The Course coordinator will provide tuition, facilitation, and analysis of each
group’s work. In this way, participants will experience and explore issues in carrying out
a scenario planning analysis of a strategic issue.
Overview of Course content
Session 1: General introduction, Concept of Scenario Planning
Session 2: Select a ‘client’, Identifying knowledge gaps
Session 3: STEEP ANALYSIS
Session 4: Analysis of driving forces, Key factors
Session 5: Clustering driving forces and plot them against the highest impact and highest
uncertainty (Group work)
Session 6: Framing the Scenarios, Filling the Scenario Scope
Session 7: Preparation of storylines, presentation of results, learning points (Group
work)
Session 8: Stakeholder Analysis/Power/Interest Matrix
Session 9: Secondary/Literature Research for Story of Future
Session 10: Primary Research for Stories
Session 11: Linking Scenarios to Strategy
Session 12: Final Draft and Presentation
Session 13: Video Preparation
Session 14: Report Writing and Publishing Scenarios
Session 15: Revision and Conclusion
Knowledge outcomes

3. q Awareness of practitioner approaches to policy/strategy development that explicitly
allow for uncertainty and ambiguity in the business environment.
q Understanding of the limitations to organizational perception, and ways to increase
the range of vision of organizations.
q Awareness of intervention possibilities, their purposes and approaches.
q Understanding of the relationship between organizational policy/decision processes
and uncertainty/ambiguity, and the relevance of scenario planning in this.
Skill outcomes
q Being able to initiate a scenario planning process in a practical setting in one’s own
organization.
q Being able to apply new tools for analyzing the business environment more
effectively.
q Being able to apply new tools for analyzing the strategic characteristics of one’s own
organization.
q Being more effective in communicating on issues concerning organizational
perception and learning.
Scenario Planning promotes and supports:
q Understanding and thinking about the impact of external factors upon future-oriented
organizational strategic thinking and policy development
q An integrative approach to investigation and analysis of complexity and ambiguity in
the external environment
q Consideration of factors of globalization and localization in relation to contexts of
business
q The opportunity to learn and experiment with the use of scenario planning as an
action-learning tool.
The Course does not involve extensive taught elements of “knowledge delivery”. Rather,
it is intended to support and facilitate critical and reflective learning and knowledge
construction. The participants will develop awareness of diversity and ambiguity, and of
the contextual nature of knowledge. The Course will challenge your own perspectives on
the world and will take your thinking and investigation - outside the realm of developed-
world, profit-seeking, organizations.
Dr. Awais e Siraj
Dr. Awais is an international trainer, learning facilitator and managing director of Genzee
Solutions. About 15 years earlier, he joined pharmaceutical industry after doing his MBA
from Strathclyde Graduate Business School in Glasgow, UK. He has more than a
decade of experience in Marketing and Sales in addition to Medical and Regulatory
Affairs. His last industry assignment was with Boston Scientifics’ regional office in Beirut,
Lebanon as Country Sales Manager. An all-time learner, Awais has been enlightened by
training and education in Pakistan, United Kingdom, USA, France, Germany, Lebanon,
Malaysia and Singapore.
He has a proven record of a successful manager, team leader and a professional with
winning mind-set. In his role as coach, facilitator, and consultant he has groomed people
from Micronet Broadband and Nayatel, Abbott, Amson, Ferozsons, Roche, British High
Commission, Action Aid, B Braun, Bayer – Schering, Pourateb (Iran), Khushali Bank, U

4. Fone, PTCL, Air Weapons Complex, Sukhi, DOVE, IYF, Habib Bank, Amgomed, UNDP,
Ericsson, National Commission of Biotechnology, Clough, Nestle, Schering Plough,
Mobilink, Ministry of Information Technology, Fauji Fertilizer Company, PSO, Getz
Pharma, Reko Pharmacal, PARCO, Ministry of Tourism, HHRD, Digital Prodigy Pvt. Ltd.
PharmEvo, GlaxoSmithKline, ICI, Medisure, Chas a. Mendoza and others.
His involvement in academic research, teaching, training and people development
connected him initially to CIIT, Islamabad, and later with Bahria University, Islamabad as
Assistant Professor in the Department of Management Sciences.
Dr. Awais has been a speaker at LUMS, University of Punjab, NUST, PIMSAT,
Marketing Association of Pakistan, National Defense University, Thames Business
School, Quaid e Azam University, National Commission on Rural Development,
COMSTECH, HEC, and COMSATS. Dr. Awais spearheaded the establishment of
Leadership Development Center (Corporate Training Initiative) at Bahria University,
Islamabad.
He is the author of a book “The Art and Craft of Pharmaceutical Selling”. He is also a
scholar of PhD at University of Leicester, United Kingdom.
Please access his detailed CV at:
www.genzeesolutions.com www.awaisesiraj.com
Scenario Planning: Selected Reading List
Getting started
van der Heijden, Kees. Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester & New York:
John Wiley & Sons, 1996 & 2005 (2nd edition) A general conceptual and methodological
overview. http://www.wiley.com/
van der Heijden K, Bradfield R, Burt G, Cairns G and Wright G: The Sixth Sense, Accelerating
Organisational Learning with Scenarios. Chichester & New York: John Wiley & Sons,
2002 Develops scenario planning, and its underpinning methodology, with organisational
learning. Discusses the psychological barriers to organisational learning.
http://www.wiley.com/
Schwartz, Peter. The Art of the Long View: Paths to Strategic Insight for Yourself and Your
Company. (2nd edition) New York: Doubleday Currency, 1996. The most-read introduction to
the subject of scenario planning.
Ringland, Gill. Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons,
1998. A series of cases and examples. http://www.wiley.com/
Methods
Ackoff, Russell, Presearch Series, GBN “Placing scenarios in a systemic context”
Best, Eric (editor) “Probabilities – Help or Hindrance in Scenario Planning?” Deeper News
(Emeryville, CA: GBN) Summer 1991 Do scenarios come with probabilities attached?
Fahey, Liam, and Robert M. Randall (eds.), Learning from the Future. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, 1997. Various perspectives on scenario planning from a large number of authors.
http://www.wiley.com/
Van der Heijden, Kees, Presearch Series, GBN “Scenarios, strategy and the strategy process”
Integrating scenarios and strategy

5. Hodgson, Anthony. “Hexagons for Systems Thinking.” European Journal of Operational Research
59, no. 1 (1992): 220–230. About a visual facilitation technique to support scenario
planning.
Leemhuis, Jaap “Using Scenarios to Develop Strategies”, Long Range Planning, 18, No. 2
(1985). Integrating risk and decision-making with scenario planning. Michael, Don,
Presearch Series, GBN On “making things happen”
Schoemaker, Paul J. H., and Kees van der Heijden. “Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning
at Royal Dutch/Shell.” Planning Review 20, no. 3 (1992): 41–46. How Shell institutionalized
scenario planning in the overall planning process.
Vennix, Jac A.M., H.A. Akkermans, E.A.J.A. Rouwette. “Group Model Building to Facilitate
Organizational Change: An Exploratory Study.” Systems Dynamics Review 12, no. 1 (1996): 39–
58. About creating group systems thinking.
Wilkinson, Lawrence. “How To Build Scenarios.” Wired [Scenarios: 1.01 Special Edition]
(September 1995): 74–81. One (simple) way of doing it
In Practice
Le Roux, Pieter “The Mont Fleur Scenarios.” Deeper News (Emeryville, CA: Global Business
Network) 7, no. 1 (1997). The multi-stakeholder scenario process in South Africa
Ogilvy, James, "Three Scenarios for Higher Education." The Deeper News (Emeryville, CA:
Global Business Network) 3, no. 1 (1992); reprinted in Thought & Action: The NEA Higher
Education Journal 9, no.1 (1993). Three scenarios developed with the national education
Board
Brand, Stewart and Schwartz, Peter. Decades of Restructuring: The 1989 GBN Scenario Book.
Emeryville, CA, 1989. Driving Forces produce divergent futures
The Congress of South Africa Trade Unions, September Commission. The Future of the Unions.
Johannesburg: COSATU (August 1997) A report to COSATU on scenarios for labour.
http://www.cosatu.org.za/congress/sept-ch1.htm
Destino Colombia, a Scenario-Planning Process for the New Millennium, Deeper News
(Emeryville. CA: GBN) 9, no 1, 1998. Columbia’s national scenario project
Institute of Economic Affairs and Society for International Development. Kenya at the crossroads:
Scenarios for our Future. Nairobi: Institute of Economic affairs, 2000. Kenya’s national scenario
project
Wilkinson, Lawrence and Cowan, Jim. The Logics of Change: The 1995 GBN Scenario Book.
Emeryville, CA, 1995. Different logics and implications of change
McCorduck, Pamela, and Nancy Ramsey. The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21st
Century. New York: Addison-Wesley, 1996. A scenaric look at the future of women
Peters, Glen. Beyond the Next Wave: Imagining the Next Generation of Customers. London:
Pitman Publishing, 1996. Scenario thinking about new markets
Daimler Benz, Scenarios on the Future of the Internet, by BC Fuller and NN Tolia
Rosell, Steven A. Changing Maps: Governing in a World of Rapid Change. Ottawa: Carleton
University Press, 1995 A scenario discussion on the future of Canada
Vision Guatemala (Spanish language)

6. Guatemal’s national scenario project
World Business Council for Sustainable Development Exploring Sustainable Development,
WBCSD Global Scenarios 2000-2050
Also refer to “Greedy Frogs, balanced Humans, and Improvisational Music: The Plenary
Scenarios of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.” Whole Earth Review,
Spring 1999. Three scenarios letting businesses envision for the future of sustainability
Scenarios for Scotland University of St. Andrew’s and University of Strathclyde, Scotland
Scotland’s post-devolution National scenario project
Shell Global Scenarios to 2005 The future business environment: trends, trade-offs and
choices Two scenarios that explore major uncertainties and predetermined elements
Centre for Scenario Planning & Future Studies 3
Sources of Scenario Thinking
Ashby, W.R. “Self-regulation and Requisite Variety.” In Systems Thinking, edited by F. E. Emery.
New York: Penguin, 1983. About the degree of richness in mental models, needed to cope.
Bénard, André. “World Oil and Cold Reality.” Harvard Business Review 58, no. 5 (1980): 91–
101 Scenarios: making people think.
Bradfield, Ron What we know and what we believe: Lessons from cognitive psychology
Development: volume 47, number 4, 35-42 Cognitive limitations impacting scenario thinking
Burt, George. “Epigenetic Change: New from the Seeds of the Old.” Journal of Strategic Change
12: 381-393, 2003 Discussion on strategic change from scenario interventions
Calvin, William H. The Cerebral Symphony: Seashore Reflections on the Structure of
Consciousness. New York: Bantam Books, 1989. People have an innate ability to build
scenarios.
Churchman, C. West. The Design of Inquiring Systems. New York: Basic Books, 1971. The
larger systemic context.
Colinvaux, Paul A. “Towards a Theory of History: Fitness, Niche and Cluth of Homo Sapiens.”
The Journal of Ecology 70, no. 2 (1982): 393–412. Why history happens.
Daft, Richard L., and Karl E. Weick. “Toward a Model of Organizations as Interpretation
Systems.” Academy of Management Review 9, no. 2 (1984): 284–295. About social
construction of reality in organizations.
De Geus, Arie. “Planning as Learning.” Harvard Business Review 66, no. 2 (1988): 70–
74. Organizational learning as a way to interpret what planners (including scenario
planners) do.
Douglas, Mary. How Institutions Think. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 1986. The
interaction between thinking and culture.
Emery, F. E., and E.L. Trist. “The Causal Texture of Organizational Environments.” Human
Relations 18, no. 1 (1965): 21-32. Categorizing the environment.
Forrester, Jay W. Industrial Dynamics. Portland, OR: Productivity Press (originally Cambridge,
MA: MIT Press), 1961. How systems thinking was introduced into the world of
management.
Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. New York: Viking Press, 1987. The book that put
“intrinsic uncertainty” on the map.

7. Ingvar, David H. “Memories of the Future: An Essay on the Temporal Organization of Conscious
Awareness.” Human Neurobiology 4, no. 3 (1985): 127–136. Suggesting that we are all natural
scenario planners.
Centre for Scenario Planning & Future Studies 4
Jungermann, Helmut, and Manfred Thuring. “The Use of Mental Models for Generating
Scenarios.” In Judgmental Forecasting, edited by G. Wright and P. Ayton. Chichester & New
York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987. A theoretical model of what scenario planning is about.
Kleiner, Art. The Age of Heretics: Heroes, Outlaws, and the Forerunners of Corporate Change.
New York: Doubleday Currency, 1996. The people behind the thinking.
Michael, Donald N. Learning to Plan and Planning to Learn. 2d ed. Alexandria, VA: Miles River
Press, 1997. The ways planning works as a process of learning.
Miller, Danny. “The Architecture of Simplicity.” Academy of Management Review 18, no. 1 (1993):
pp. 116–138. How world views simplify over time.
Neustadt, Richard, and Ernest R. May. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decisionmakers.
New York: Free Press, 1986. What historical thinking has to offer.
Ogilvy, James. “Future Studies and the Human Sciences: The Case for Normative Scenarios.”
Futures Research Quarterly 8, no. 2 (1992): 5–65. Normative scenarios, the debate continues.
Ogilvy, James. “Scenario Planning as the Fulfillment of Critical Theory.” Futures Research
Quarterly 12, no. 2 (1996): 5–33. Situates scenario planning in the tradition of social
criticism.
Porter, Michael E. “What is Strategy?” Harvard Business Review 74, no. 6 (1996): 61– 74. Fit
between the organization and its environment.
Schnaars, Stephen P. “How to Develop Business Strategies from Multiple Scenarios.” In
Handbook of Business Strategy 1986/87, edited by W.D. Guth. Boston: Warren, Gosham and
Lamont, 1986. Examples of how scenarios influence strategy.
Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral
Foundation.” Strategic Management Journal 14 (1993): 193–213. Scenarios and biases in
human thinking.
Vickers, Geoffrey. Human Systems are Different. New York: Harper & Row, 1983. The extra
dimension of purpose.
Vygotsky, Lev. Thought and Language. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1986. What people can and
cannot learn.
Wack, Pierre. “Scenarios: the Gentle Art of Re-perceiving.” [Working Paper.] Cambridge, MA:
Harvard Business School, 1984.
“Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5 (1985):72–79.
Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids.” Harvard Business Review 63, no. 6 (1985): 139–150.