Food and Fibre: Capitalising on Asian Market Opportunities
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Australian Business Forum helps Australian SMEs and businesses to understand the Chinese market and refine their China strategy. http://abf.events/ ABOUT THE PRESENTATION BELOW Anthony Plummer of Trade and Investment Victoria, presents on opportunities for food and agriculture in the Asian Century, the fast-growing meat and dairy sectors, the China Australia Free Trade Agreement and finally how the Victorian Government is combining all of these opportunities to drive agribusiness in coming decades. Originally presented at Australia-China BusinessWeek 2015 Melbourne
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Food and Fibre: Capitalising on Asian Market Opportunities
- 1. Food and fibre: capitalising on the market opportunities in Asia Anthony Plummer Trade and Investment Department of Economic Development
- 2. 31% 18% 13% 9% 9% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Food and fibre Manufactures - ETM Education Tourism Business services Fuels Manufactures - STM excl Nickel Other merchandise Transport services Business travel services Minerals Government goods and services Share of Victorian exports, 2013-14 Combined export value = $11.6 billion Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) catalogue numbers: 5368.0 and 5368.0.55.003 Victorian food and fibre exports
- 3. Impressive growth Five-year growth for key Victorian export commodities (A$ million)
- 4. 4 Diversity is a strength 2.34 2.3 1.96 1.43 0.91 0.89 Meat Dairy Grain Animal fibre Prepared foods Horticulture 2013-14 exports in AUD$ billion
- 5. South East Asia 22% -- $2.3 billion • Meat 45% -- $379 million • Dairy 36% -- $761 million North Asia 8% -- $4.4 billion • Meat 57% -- $772 million • Dairy 16% -- $919 million South Asia 10% -- $598 million • Horticulture 118% -- $135 million • Dairy 82% -- $90 million MENA (Middle East and North Africa) 14% -- $1.5 billion • Horticulture 148% -- $96 million • Grain 13% -- $511 million Total exports 12% -- $11.4 billion • Meat 36% -- $2.3 billion • Horticulture 48% -- $894 million Consistent growth in 2013-14
- 6. 6 Competitiveness underpinned by productivity Dairy productivity growth of at 1.2% per year over the last 30 years
- 7. Volume, and increasingly value…
- 8. A populous, diverse and growing market
- 10. ... Growth in key markets is still relatively strong
- 11. 11 ... a big and growing ‘consumer’ class 0.5bn 1.3bn 1.7bn 3.2bn Asia Rest of the world Projected middle class populations 2009 and 2030 2009 2030 Source: ANZ Greener Pastures; Kharas 2010
- 12. - Higher value, premium products (food service ingredients, baby formula) - Long-life/UHT and fresh milk - Leveraging world-class food safety systems - Premium chilled cuts, especially in food service - Specific consumer requirements (e.g. Halal) and ‘co-products’ - Leveraging world-class food safety and traceability systems - Developing containerised (as well as bulk) supply - Tailoring products for specific markets (e.g. noodles in Asia, flat breads in the Middle East) - Fresh fruit e.g. citrus, table grapes, summerfruit and pome fruits - Nuts, especially almonds - Exploiting counter seasonal products - fresh and clean - Retail-ready consumer products, convenience foods and health products - Luxury goods, including wine and specialty cheese PREPARED FOODS, BEVERAGES AND WINE HORTICULTURE GRAINS BEEF AND SHEEP DAIRY Key opportunities
- 13. Particular demand for protein… 0 5 10 1980 2010 0.5 5 0.5 3.5 Sheep Beef Consumption per capita Kilograms
- 15. …your consumers are connected
- 16. … and consumers want to know more • About where their food comes from • How its produced • Who has produced it • Shorter supply chains • Connection with producers (agri-tourism?)
- 17. ... Provenance matters to many consumers
- 18. Differentiation key • Premium quality • Reliability • Product innovation • Production/product attributes • Brand • Strategic partnerships • Customer service
- 19. Bottom line: consumers expect food safety and quality Robust food safety regulation • PrimeSafe • Dairy Food Safety Victoria • Federal Government Well regarded biosecurity systems • Mandatory tracking of livestock through the National Livestock Identification System Industry quality assurance systems • Contemporary industry-led QA systems
- 21. Wine - 15% tariff on wine eliminated immediately Horticulture - Tariffs of between 8 – 24% on cherries, almonds and dried grapes eliminated immediately - 45% tariff on potatoes, oranges, mandarins, table grapes halved immediately, then phased out over 5yrs Dairy - 36% tariff on cheese and 89% on butter eliminated between 13-20 years - Growing duty free quota for cheese, butter, infant formula Korea-Australia Free Trade Agreement Grain - Growing duty free quota for malt and malting barley Red meat - 40% tariff on beef eliminated over 15 years - 22.5% tariff on sheep and goat meat eliminated over 10 yrs
- 22. Dairy - Duty free quota for cheese - Duty free access for protein concentrates, lactose, casein - New opportunities for dairy desserts Japan-Australia Economic Part. Agreement Beef - 38.5% tariff reducing to 19.5% over 18yrs - Reducing to 23.5% over 15yrs for chilled beef Wine - Elimination of 15% tariff on bottled wine over 7 years - Tariff on bulk wine eliminated immediately Horticulture - Fast tariff elimination on most fruits, vegetables and nuts Grain - Duty free access for feed grains Seafood - Duty free access for lobster, shellfish, crustaceans
- 23. Sheepmeat - 12-23% – 8 yrs - 10% live sheep – 4 yrs Skins and hides - 5-14% - 2-7 yrs Horticulture and wine - Tariffs as high as 30% eliminated over 4yrs Grains - 3% tariff on barley and 2% tariff on sorghum eliminated immediately - 10% tariff on wheat gluten and malt eliminated over 4yrs Dairy - Tariffs as high as 20% phased out over 4-11yrs - 15% tariff on milk formula phased out over 4 yrs China-Australia Free Trade Agreement Beef - 12-25% on beef – 9 yrs - 5% on live cattle – 4 yrs
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- 28. Avalon International Airshow 国际航展 Jean Paul Gaultier 让 保罗·高缇耶展 White Night 白夜节 AFC Asian Cup 亚洲杯足球赛 Australian Open澳网公开赛 Cadel Evans Road Race 卡德尔·埃文斯公路自行车赛 ICC Cricket World Cup 板球世界杯 Superbikes世界超摩赛 Formula One Grand Prix 一级方程式赛车 Festival of Racing 赛马节 Flower & Garden Show 墨尔本国际花卉园林展 Fashion Festival 时装节 Food & Wine Festival 美食美酒节 Comedy Festival 喜剧节 Chinese New Year 中国春节 9 January – 29 March 2015 2015年1月9日-3月29日 墨尔本的80天 2015年1月9日-3月29日
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Notas do Editor
- Introduction Today’s presentation covers three areas First: the opportunities and challenges for food and agriculture in the ‘Asian Century’ Second: what that means for our fastest growing sectors – meat and dairy Third: FTA Fourth: What the Victorian Government is doing
- In 2013-14: Victoria’s total $37.4 billion (goods and services exports were worth) Food and fibre exports were valued at $11.4 billion, or 31% of Victoria’s total exports Food and fibre exports equivalent to education ($4.7 billion), tourism ($3.5 billion) and business services ($3.4 billion) combined.
- Victorian food and fibre exports were valued at $11.4 billion in 2013–14. Year on year value growth of 12 per cent - $1.2 billion on 2012–13. Food alone $8.7 billion, an increase of $1.2 billion from 12-13. Victoria accounts for 29 per cent of Australia's total food and fibre exports and is Australia's largest state exporter. 5 most valuable - China, Japan, USA, New Zealand, Indonesia, The value of fibre products (including animal fibre, skins and hides and forest products) increased by $50 million from 2012–13, to be valued at $2.6 billion†. The five most valuable markets for Victorian food and fibre exports accounted for 46 per cent of the State's food and fibre exports in 2013–14. Victoria's 10 most valuable food and fibre export markets in 2013–14 were China, Japan, USA, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Thailand.
- Milk production doubled, same cows 35 % reduction in grazing area – over 30 years Milk yield per cow has almost doubled and the stocking rate has increased by 50 per cent Processors are making large investments in the facilities and technology needed to produce transformed dairy products, such as lactoferrin and other milk extracts, to draw greater value from raw milk and capture higher margins in growing export markets
- Growing populations and incomes Asia’s consumers are increasingly demanding the premium, safe food and beverages that Victoria takes pride in producing Australia won’t be Asia’s foodbowl, producing enough food for 60 million across the country (for a population of 22 million) China – 1.35 billion India – 1.25 billion Indonesia – 0.25 billion US – 0.32 billion
- China 1.3 billion people wealth of the eastern seaboard Enormous growth potential in the Yangste River Delta
- Growth average 10% for 30 years Slowing to 7% in 2013. Australia and Canada 2-3%. Europe – 0 Chinese Economy > $10-trillion
- Asia’s ‘consumer class’ is rapidly expanding Asia’s ‘consumer class’ is forecast to expand six fold from 525 million to over 3 billion by 2030 China and India alone will contribute 40 per cent of global middle class consumption by 2030, rising to 54 per cent by 2050 Victorian food producers and exporters can make an even greater contribution to the Victorian economy and job creation Note: middle class is defined as households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person in purchasing power parity terms (Source: Homi Kharas, Brookings Institute)
- Opportunities for Victoria’s most competitive food industries For dairy: There are opportunities for longer shelf-life milk and higher value, premium products such as food service ingredients, baby formula, and specialty cheeses We can also leverage our world-class food safety systems In red meat Premium chilled cuts, halal, semi-processed ‘smalls’ carcasses, as well as offal or ‘co-products’ (especially in South East Asia) Can also leverage our traceability and tracking systems In grains: There’s a big opportunity, especially with containerised grains, to tailor our product for specific market requirements such as noodles in Asia and flat breads in the Middle East For horticulture: The growth opportunities as a counter seasonal supplier are perhaps most significant, with demand for clean, green fresh fruit (e.g. citrus, table grapes, summerfruits, apples and pears) and nuts from Sunraysia and the Goulburn Valley There is growing demand for retail-ready products, including health-foods and convenience foods, given the growth in supermarkets and cold-chain infrastructure throughout Asia. Interest in premium Victorian wines is also growing, especially in China and in food service
- The China's annual per capita consumption of sheep meat and beef has risen from just 500 grams of each three decades ago to 3.5 kilos and 5 kilos respectively (in 2010); Beef and Lamb in China 2013 – sheepmeat imports by China doubled - reached a record 254,000 tonnes, up from 124,000 tonnes in 2012 2014 Beef exports from Victoria to China – 34,000t / $141m 2014 Sheep exports from Victoria to China – 30,000t / $131m China – 2nd largest market for meat 78,000t / $361m # 1 wool market ($875 million) Growing demand for meat Beef consumption in China still lags far behind pork and chicken, though middle-class tastes for Western food options have pushed consumption to about 4.5 kilograms per person each year. Pork consumption is about 37 kg per person annually (in 2012) Strong global demand weakening AUD$ Outlook positive
- Highly mobile May hit 90% penetration for smartphones this year 618 million Internet users, 80 percent of whom access the Web via their smartphones Online shopping accounts for 10% of retail sales, Growing at 40% pa
- Laptop story
- Marketing material for Australian Beef in Shanghai City Shop Supermarket
- May not be lowest cost
- 15% on wine eliminated immediately 8-24% on cherries, almonds and grapes immediately
- Photograph of Australian beef eye fillet for sale in Qingdao – 366 RMB (AUD$73) per 500 gram – AUD $140 per kilogram On full implementation, 95 per cent of Australian goods exports to China will be tariff free.
- More than 200 buyers from across Asia visited Victoria last week as the Andrews Government hosted its first inbound trade mission. 20 fruit buyers visited the wholesale market, fruit orchards and packing sheds 60 food buyers visited cheesemakers, chocolate makers, nut processors and beef cattle farms across Victoria China, India, South-East Asia and the Middle East Very responsive to Australian growers and their food. The Government is focused on inbound trade missions, inviting overseas buyers to visit Australia. This was the first of many under the Government’s Victorian Invitation Program, which shows international buyers what Victoria has to offer in food, fibre, cars, education and medical technology. Inbound trade missions create relationships that can become great business partnerships. They are an opportunity for delegates to be on farms, taste food and see where it is grown, packed and sold. Victoria is Australia’s leading food and fibre export state — worth $11.4 billion in 2013-14. The Government is in discussion with industry on the outcomes of the mission. Initial indications and feedback are overwhelmingly positive with projected food sales in the tens of millions.
- Market access Market development – trade missions, promotions Market intelligence Photograph – market access cherries - Dalian Agricultural Research Institute and Yantai Cherry Growers Association
- Victoria Week Trade Mission to India - Closes today - 20-24 April 2015 Food and Hotel Indonesia April 2015 HOFEX, 6-9 May 2015 Seoul Food and Hotel, 12-15 May 2015 Meet the Winemaker – 25-28 May 2015 You will need to meet the following criteria: be headquarterd in Victoria or be able to demonstrate a significant contribution to Victoria’s exports and jobs be directly engaged in the industry in which the Trade Mission is focused or in business aligned with Trade Mission objective. (Professional service firms (such as accounting and legal), , chambers, municipal councils, and freight companies may apply but will not be eligible for a grant). Industry associations directly representing member companies may be eligible for the grant be financially viable have a sound case for doing business in the region in which the Mission is focused be currently exporting or demonstrate export readiness be (or will be) exporting goods or services that are of Victorian origin or demonstrate that significant value add has taken place in Victoria. (Consolidators may only promote Victorian product during the trade mission) be represented on the mission by an employee or officer of the company. Distributors, agents or other in market representatives may be invited to participate in events but will not receive grants and are not automatically entitled to all the privileges of a trade mission participant not be seeking alternative funding for the same expenses being sought or obtained for this mission