2. This is a regularly-updated collection of things we
(@atomico) found interesting and important in tech and VC
land, but that didn’t necessarily get the attention they
deserve. We think of them as our hidden little gems. We’ll
add to the collection over time, so bookmark the page and
keep coming back for updates or to dig into the archive.
2
3. Top 3 Key Points
● Community: Even if there is a correction (many ‘dubious’ utility tokens that
are likely to ‘go to zero’), expect to see a large expansion of the crypto
community in 2018 in terms of individuals, participating enterprises (think
FB), investors (institutions!), and, most importantly, developers
● Usability: Important progress on improving the core tech infrastructure
(e.g. initiatives such as Casper on ETH chain, transition from PoW to PoS),
as well as in terms of accessibility of crypto (focus on UX/UI, services, etc)
to further strengthen the fundamentals of decentralized technology.
● Oversight: There will be material advances to improve oversight in the
space, covering many infrastructural and regulatory aspects including
models for fundraising/token issuance, investor protection, taxation,
security, code integrity, etc.
3
Thinking ahead about crypto/blockchain in 2018
Source(s): https://medium.com/@twobitidiot/95-crypto-theses-for-2018-ca7b74f8abcf, https://media.consensys.net/18-predictions-for-2018-7a376ea7bd4b?gi=7ddb4ca50b71,
https://tokeneconomy.co/token-economy-30-gazing-into-the-crypstal-ball-3a02cf9fe778, https://11fs.com/blog/2018-blockchain-predictions-ready/
The Takeaway
Irrespective of which way the total coin market cap counter swings
(now at $0.8T, up 46x from $17B a year ago), 2018 will be a year of
much-needed breakthroughs that lead to material progress in the
deployment, adoption, regulation and use of crypto technology
Points of Debate / Next Steps
● Where will total coin/token market cap end up in 2018? :)
● Will ‘mainstream’ talent flow into the space from established
(centralised) companies?
● How will regulation help to create better certainty for
participants in the decentralised ecosystem?
The Story
“How many unbanked people have we banked? How much censorship-resistant
commerce for the common people have we enabled? How many dapps [distributed
applications] have we created that have substantial usage? How much value is stored
in smart contracts that actually do anything interesting? How many Venezuelans have
actually been protected by us from hyperinflation? How much actual usage of
micropayment channels is there actually in reality?” - Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum
4. Top 3 Key Points
● Over the past few decades, there has been a decline in both
“communal” and “live” entertainment and activities with the
proliferation of social networks and on-demand viewing
● The success of examples such as HQ Trivia (with ~2x daily live
trivia) and Peloton (with ~14x daily live spin classes) indicate that
there is also a desire to connect synchronously - to do the same
thing at the same time in a connected way
● While on-demand and asynchronous will certainly continue to be the
bulk of the media we consume, live communal viewing appears to
still hold a unique strategic value
4
The rise of live communal interactions in the age of Netflix
Source:
https://www.fastcompany.com/40503654/the-most-important-tech-trends-of-2018-according-to-top-vcs
https://redef.com/original/the-death-and-resurrection-of-live-communal-entertainment
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/arts/hq-trivia-app-appointment-viewing.html?_r=0
The Takeaway
Despite an ever-increasing transformation towards on-demand
entertainment and activities, the success of models such as HQ Trivia,
Peloton and Cheddar suggest that there is still value in, and a desire for,
certain forms of live communal interactions
Points of Debate / Next Steps
● What is the fundamental driver of a desire to do the same thing at
the same time in a connected way? The content, interactions, or
participation etc.?
● How do these models scale sustainably? Is there a critical mass that
needs to be hit, and conversely, a breaking point at which is
becomes ‘too big’?
● Is it possible to sustain the appeal of these models, or is a
faddish element inherent to them?
“It’s antithetical to the way social networks have
been predominantly used, connecting people but
doing so asynchronously. What if there’s a desire
for people doing the same thing at the same
time in a connected way?”
- M.G. Siegler, GV
5. Top 3 Key Points
● $148B in private tech funding rounds globally breaks 2015’s record,
while total deal count continues to fall. Funding driven by large
rounds such Deliveroo, Airbnb, Lyft and the entry of Softbank
● Exit activity however slowed, driven by larger late stage investments
delaying IPOs. Median time to IPO has risen over the last decade,
from 4.9 years in 2006 to 8.3 years in 2016
● VC LP fundraising also declined to $48B (chart not shown). This
follows 2016’s record-setting year at $65B
5
Record amounts of VC invested in 2017; exits decline
Source: https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/a-record-setting-year-2017-vc-activity-in-3-charts
The Takeaway
Large late stage rounds lead to a new record in terms of $ invested, while
deal count declined. This also contributed to fewer exits as companies
delay IPO or M&A discussions
Points of Debate / Next Steps
● Is this the new normal?
● People originally thought 2017 would see a wave of IPOs /
exits. Is this now 2018?
VC $ raised
“2015 previously held the mark for most venture capital
invested globally in a single year over the past decade. But
now it's 2017, and massive VC financings are the new normal.”
- Pitchbook, Dec-17
VC-backed exits in decline
6. In case you missed it
6
Footnotes
Companies What happened?
Sequoia
Sequoia is raising $5-6bn growth fund. Fundraising rumoured to start in Q1 2018. Previous growth fund was
$2bn and was raised in 2015. Guesses at what is driving the big increase in fund size focus on impact of SVF,
but motivation is likely simpler: Sequoia sees an opportunity to deploy and deliver outsized returns on a fund of
this magnitude
Spotify
Spotify made confidential filing for NYSE IPO via a direct listing. It would be the first major company to carry out
a direct listing, an unconventional way to pursue an IPO without raising new capital. Hit 70M paid users.
Uber
Softbank succeeded in tender offer for Uber shares at valuation of $48bn, a ~30% discount to last round at
$68bn. The deal was 42% oversubscribed. Uber also regulated as traditional taxi service by EU - means
member states can apply their own transportation laws to Uber
Founders Fund
Rumoured to have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into cryptocurrency, including $15-20m in bitcoin.
The bet has been spread across several of the firm’s most recent funds
Pantera
Pantera Bitcoin Fund sees returns of roughly 25k percent following its investment in bitcoin; Pantera launched
the fund in 2013, investing $150M in the cryptocurrency; the firm estimates its made $2.1B for its investors;
there are now 175 such funds, 150 of which were launched in the last yea
Spectre/Meltdown
Major security flaws have been found in processors designed by the likes of Intel and ARM. Meltdown and
Spectre were discovered by security researchers at Google’s Project Zero. The scale of the impact is enormous
and vulnerabilities could be present in most modern computers, including smartphones, tablets and PCs from
all vendors and running almost any operating system. Patches to fix the flaws are coming thick & fast
Ant/Moneygram
CFIUS (US committee ruling on foreign investments in US companies) blocked Ant Financial’s proposed
acquisition of Moneygram. This marks a strengthening of US protectionism in the context of deepening
anti-Chinese sentiment in trade
A16Z
Raised a second biotech fund under Vijay Pande at $450M. This follows its first biotech fund at $200M that was
closed in 2015. The focus is on companies that seek to “engineer biology”. Has made 12 investments to date.