Paper-2 Global steel scenario and future of refractory technology.docx
1. Global steel scenario and future of refractory technology
Atanu Ranjan Pal a,
*, Ashish Chaudhary b
a
Research & Development Division, Tata Steel, Jamshedpur, India
b
Refractories Technology Group, Tata Steel, Jamshedpur, India
1. Global Steel Scenario and Chinese effect :
Urbanization is the main driver for any steel industry. When any country starts to follow the path of
urbanisation, the demand for steel intensity increases as the need for new infrastructure for
improved connectivity, efficient use of natural resources, and creation of sophisticated transport
hubs come into existence. The surge in population density means requirement of taller buildings
which leads to requirement of more high-quality steel. As the urbanisation process takes place more
of the population seeks for employment opportunities which drives the demand for new
machineries and ultimately driving the steel industry.
Figure 1 shows the total steel production of the world and China’s share in it. According to the
recent report by World Steel Association, the total global production of steel reached 1,600 million
tonnes in 2014, showing an increase of just 1% when compared to 2013. The reduction in Chinese
growth can be attributed as the main reason for this slow-down in growth as its share in global
production increase remained almost stagnant when compared to last year. The Asian countries
which includes South Korea showing an 8% increase and India up by 6%; the EU, driven mainly by
increases in Poland and France; were the main contributing countries towards increased steel
production. However, China still remained the largest producer of steel in the world, followed by
EU, Japan, the US and India making up the top five. But it is predicted that with current rate of
growth of India, it would soon replace US and would become world’s fourth largest producer of steel
in 2015.
Figure 1:China's share in world steel production
Source: World steel association
2. While it is true that China continues to drive global steel market dynamics based on its roughly 50%
total output share and its still-growing exports, it is no longer true that China’s overall economic
growth drives its domestic steel market and implicitly, global steel markets.
Figure 2 shows that between 1991 and 2013 the Chinese economy, as measured by GDP, moved in
almost perfect synchronization with the domestic consumption of steel. Economic growth in China
was largely driven by increased manufacturing production and infrastructure spending, both of
which are heavily dependent on steel sector.
However, that changed dramatically beginning in 2014 as the Chinese economy grew at an annual
rate of 7.5% while domestic steel consumption actually decreased by an estimated 3.5%. This year,
the Chinese economy is expected to grow at around 7% while the domestic steel market is expected
to decline 0.5% and a further 0.5% next year according to the World Steel Association. (Figure 2).
The declining domestic market
have made China the largest
global exporter of steel as the
steel makers within the country
have started targeting markets
outside the country. The total
export capacity of the country
almost increased two folds to a
staggering 100 M tonnes , which
is 30.8M tonnes more in
comparison to last year and more
than the combined annual
production of Mexico and
Canada.
Steelmakers around the globe are completely aware of the fact that China has not reduced its
production in line with the fall-off in domestic demand and has instead ramped up exports—from
around 43 million tons (mt) in the beginning of the decade to 93mt last year and potentially 100mt
this year.
While trade cases and other factors are likely to see Chinese steel exports to decline as of 2016, it
will take years for the massive amount of surplus capacity to be eliminated. This surplus capacity and
the resulting impacts on domestic and global prices remain very serious concerns for the global steel
industry. However, the issue of whether China’s economy grows at 7%, 8% or 6% is not in itself
decisive. Under a scenario where economic growth starts to seriously falter, it is conceivable that the
Chinese government could reverse direction and revert to infrastructure spending to support
growth.
2. Effect of steel demand on steel pricing:
The slowing economy has hit China's steel consumption significantly. China's manufacturing sector’s
activities slumped to a three-year low in November, further adding to visible signs of prevailing
Figure 2 : Relationship between China GDP and finished steel
consumption
3. economic sluggishness despite of introduction of large number of stimulus measures. This also
affected the iron ore and coal price which hit a new decade low as the once rising market for the
steelmaking industries continued to struggle with the decrease in demand from top consumer China.
International price of iron ore is currently trading at near ten year lows. On April 02, 2015, spot price
of iron ore with 62% Fe content was trading at USD 47.08 per dry metric tonne (dmt).
In context to Indian market, India made an import of 9.3 million tonnes of cheaper Chinese steel in
FY15. The lowest duty structures against Chinese steel have made domestic steel sector bleed open .
The increased Indian raw materials prices due to a mining ban on iron ore also serves as a
disadvantage to Indian steel makers as they are forced to buy ore locally at prices higher than global
prices. While the prices of iron ore were drop by $100 a tonne in world markets over the past one
year, Indian ore prices showed a decrease of only Rs 650 a tonne for the same period.
3. Effect of shortage and lower price of iron ore on Indian steel industry
This shortage of iron ore and coal in India has escalated the prices of key raw materials available
from Indian source, thus contributing significantly towards inflated Indian steel prices in comparison
to global prices of crude steel. Local ore prices have not kept pace with the sharp fall in global ones,
down 29 per cent since January 2015 to around $50 a tonne. The reason for surge in Indian iron ore
prices is attributed to auction of mines and extra local duties by local governments.
Figure 3 shows the decrease in global iron ore prices
which have slumped from $180 a tonne in 2011 to $40 a
tonne in 2015. While on the other hand the Indian iron
ore prices have surged from Rs 800 a tonne to Rs 2000 a
tonne in last five years. As a result the iron ore prices of
both Indian and global markets have become equivalent,
which has led to loss of cost advantage which Indian steel
industries had over Chinese ones whose 40% of total
demand is met through its domestic supply.
4. Refractory scenario and Chinese effect
The steel industry is the main driver for refractories, consuming 70% refractory bricks and
monolithics, and is projected to grow by a mere 0.5-1.8% in the next few years. India has been cited
many times as the future driver of world steel growth, with some 125-130m tonnes of crude steel
forecast to be produced by 2020, representing a massive growth of 14.1%.
However, there are major challenges facing the Indian industry including cheap imports taking 30%
of the steel market (with 9m tonnes from China expected for 2015), and low quality refractories
used in induction furnaces currently representing 30-35% of Indian steel production.
It is true that without refractories, you
cannot have steel; but without industrial
minerals, you cannot have refractories.
As indicated in figure 4, China appears as
the primary source of many refractory
minerals. China is the dominant supplier
Figure 4 : Distribution of refractory raw materials
Figure 3 : Variation in global iron ore prices
over last 5 years
4. (>50% world supply) of bauxite, brown fused alumina, flake graphite, fused magnesia, and silicon
carbide (and >44% dead burned magnesia). Certain minerals have very few sources: refractory grade
bauxite supply is limited to China and Guyana (the latter operated by Bosai Minerals Group, China).
Without doubt, the present market for refractory mineral supply is one of oversupply and depressed
prices – it’s a buyer’s market.
According to figure 5 , it is visible that China’s
market downturn has decimated the domestic
refractories and refractory mineral supply
market. Factors such as production sector
consolidation and environmental controls, have
forced Chinese refractory mineral producers to
produce at cost price or going out of business
altogether.
5. Technology :
Due to segregation of chinese refractory industry and decline in refractory raw material prices,
industries are finding hard to put efforts on new technological projects in the refractory field. The
competition and downfall of market has put the refractory industry on back foot towards
development of new solution which are tailor made to customer trends. This soaring of raw material
prices has hindered contribution towards improving energy efficiency and alternative raw material
substitute for manufacturing final refractory products.
Figure 6 shows the typical life
cycle of a product. The existing
refractory technology which
underwent advancement from
late 1900s have reached a
maturity stage and are
currently in the dying or
extended stage. As a result a
new revolution is needed in
the field to extend the S-Curve
to the future stage. Below are
described some life cycles of
different refractories used in
various stages of steel
production.
For producing steel, the first stage involves conversion of iron ore to molten iron which is
subsequently converted to steel during steel making process. This conversion of iron oxide (in iron
ore) to molten iron demands hot air which is supplied by hot stoves to carry out the reduction
Figure 5 : Variation of refractory raw material prices
Figure 6 : Life cycle curve followed by various refractory products
5. process efficiently. The advancement of refractories with time in iron making area can be
summarised as – From 1950s to early 1970s fireclay refractories were introduced as lining material
in the stoves and blast furnace area. But with less focus on enhancing these refractories , it soon
passed the evolution stage and followed the dying path shown in above figure. These were gradually
replaced by high-alumina refractories in 1960s. The high alumina refractories for iron making area
followed the same trend and underwent a short life cycle after being replaced by silica bricks for hot
stoves in 1970s and graphite brick lining for blast furnaces in 1980s. Around 2000 both silica bricks
and graphite brick lining have reached a stabilising phase and are nearing their maturity. As a result,
while searching for new developments the focus is shifted to gradually replace silica bricks by
alumina bricks with high creep resistance in hot stoves and graphite bricks by copper staves in blast
furnaces, as new blast furnaces demand high volume of production. Hence some new revolutionary
improvements such as addition of some additives like titanium carbide in carbon blocks, achieving
more life with thinner refractory lining are needed, so that the iron making refractories continue to
traverse the extended future curve rather reaching out to the dying stage. Some other radical
changes which have been introduced in area of monolithics for ironmaking includes use of sol
bonded alumina-silica castables for faster, quicker and safer drying in comparison to conventional
and low cement castables, shotcreting castables based on colloidal silica for blast furnace hot
repairs. But these developments are happening at a sluggish pace as people are mostly working on
the value engineering of raw materials rather than development of new products in this segment.
In case of steelmaking area, magnesia– carbon brick find its use in almost all the steelmaking
processes ranging from lining of ladle metallurgy furnaces for slag lines, basic oxygen furnaces and
electric arc furnaces for steelmaking and also in secondary steel making vessels. The technological
development of MgO-C refractories with its application areas can be summarised as – The life cycle
of MgO-C refractories started in the year 1950, where evolution of pitch bonded MgO-C refractories
took place.The carbonation was done during preheating treatment of ladle and it possessed better
thermal spalling and slag penetration resistance. These bricks found use in BOF area. After 1950
these bricks went in the evolution phase where focus was laid in improving the quality of bricks. In
1970 magnesia purity became a major factor. As a result magnesia grain with lime to silica ratio of 2
to 3:1 and low boron content was used to improve the life of brick by improving corrosion
resistance. Burned and impregnated magnesia was developed with fine pore size to inhibit slag
penetration and thus improved corrosion resistance . These bricks found use in charge pad area and
other high wear and impact areas of BOFs. As a result a new concept of zonal lining was adopted. In
1980s researchers developed resin bonded magnesia – graphite refractories with higher carbon
content. To preserve the carbon and make the brick a new technique of addition of antioxidants was
used. From 2000 to till date the MgO-C refractories have started following the curve of stabilisation
where small developments are made to further enhance the refractory life which includes
improving corrosion resistance by using high purity magnesia grains with large crystal size, variation
of carbon content to improve the thermal conductivity, in-situ spinel bonding and oxidation
resistance and addition of various additives (metallic, alloy and inorganic compounds) to achieve
better refractory properties. With respect to the stringent demand of longer refractory life some
new innovation in the area of MgO-C refractories is required so that it follows the future curve as
shown in above figure and does not undergo in the dying stage. Some innovations in this area
include development of new technologies that have high added value and also it cannot be copied
easily. One way can be use of nano particles which can bring about a tremendous change in
6. refractories field by displaying remarkable performance . They can disperse among the tiny spaces
between varied size particles of refractory raw materials hence filling up interior pores and gaps and
also contributing in improvement of microstructure and reactivity. The use of nano materials in bulk
matrix helps in absorbing and relieving stresses developed by thermal expansion and shrinkage of
refractory particles, increasing corrosion resistance of refractory at high temperature due to its high
surface to volume ratio. eg - Nano –zirconia (ZrO2) addition in small amounts (~ 2 wt %) in dolomite
refractories showed improvement of densification, thermal shock resistance, slaking resistance and
slag corrosion resistance. Presence of nano iron oxide in MgO-Cr2O3 refractories facilitated the
formation of magnesio ferrite spinel at lower temperatures which dramatically improves the
properties of the bricks . Addition of 0.4% nano Fe2O3 in silica refractories has improved the
properties.
In continuous efforts to follow the extended future curve in steelmaking after the stabilisation phase
many novel developments such as - development of MgO-C castable as novel refractory solution in
BOFs, , use of spent refractories in making tundish sprays, gunning materials and as slag conditioning
materials in steel industry have currently been introduced which can help significantly to the steel
industry.
Development of other refractory material and their present status
Some new developments which have taken place in the field of refractories after 2000 include –
Nanotech MgO-C refractories, Chrome free brick for secondary refining process, silica bricks with
high density with high SiC and TiO2 content, cordierite base refractory coating, monolithic lining for
steelmaking ladles and transfer ladles, alumina-silicate fibres insulating materials. Although these
new refractory material have been put into use in some steel plants such as NSC etc. but they still
have a long way to traverse in order to be incorporated in regular practice.
Can 3D Printing of refractories be future of refractory technology?
One of the most interesting areas that some organisations have started to explore is the usage of
additive manufacturing (3D printing) for printing complex shaped ceramics. Additive manufacturing
is defined as : “formation of objects, by layer by layer joining process where the design is fed
through a 3D model data, contrary to subtractive manufacturing methodologies”. The advantages of
additive manufacturing over traditional includes design complexity, speed to market and waste
reduction. Different technologies of 3D printing which can be used to print ceramics are –
Vat photo polymerisation - A ultraviolet curable liquid photopolymer resin and an ultraviolet
laser is used to build the object’s layers one at a time.
Material extrusion – In this process material filament is melted and deposited, via a heated
extruder, layer by layer to build a platform.
Powder bed fusion – In this process on the basis of 3D data fed to machine, a laser is traced
across a powder bed of tightly compacted powdered material. As the laser comes in contact
with the surface of the powdered material it sinters, or fuses, the particles to each other
forming a solid object.
As a result many centres around the globe – TNO center for additive manufacturing in
Netherlands (prepared structures using alumina powder as feed material), DDM systems in
7. Atlanta (prepared structures using silica and alumina powder as feed material), 3D systems
and stratasys in USA - have started working in this direction to revolutionize the
manufacturing technology and can be regarded as “the third industrial revolution”.