Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a America’s Brexit: The Evolving Risks of Global Trade (20) America’s Brexit: The Evolving Risks of Global Trade1. PUBLIC
March 23, 2017
David Landsman, SAP
Scott Paul, Alliance for American Manufacturing
America’s Brexit: The Evolving Risks of
Global Trade
2. 2PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
David Landsman, Global Senior
Director, SAP Ariba Discovery
Speakers
Scott Paul, President, Alliance
for American Manufacturing
3. 3PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
Donald Trump and today’s trade policies
Reshoring
SAP Ariba’s Solutions
Q&A
Agenda
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Public
Could be transformative for American
manufacturing and disruptive to the globalized
world
Or, it could be meaningless, if traditional
obstacles stand in the way
Donald Trump’s Presidency
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Public
There needs to be a higher minimum
wage in Mexico
Mexican labor is significantly cheaper
than US labor
–Forcing US jobs to Mexico
–Mexican workers can’t afford US made
goods
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Said…
6. 6PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
US is seeking more reciprocal trade with
countries such as China and Germany
This will boost growth
Reduce the trade deficit
Keep American production capacity
out of foreign hands
The American plan seeking to reduce the trade
deficit “is not based on higher tariffs, but rather
getting our partners to lower theirs.”
White House National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro said…
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Public
“It seems clear that the U.S. manufacturing crisis is related to our trade with China”
China sells $4 worth of goods to the US for every $1 of imports
China is the largest exporter to the US
As a result, Lighthizer will go hard on China’s imports and create steep taxes
This will hurt US retailers temporarily but Lighthizer isn’t worried in the long run
Trump’s pick for USTR, Robert Lighthizer, said…
9. 9PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
To “bring back” manufacturing jobs, particularly
in steel and automobiles
To lower the trade deficit
To achieve 4 percent economic growth
To create 25 million new private sector jobs
over 8 years
Trump has promised
10. 10PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
Will he aggressively renegotiate NAFTA and other trade deals?
Will he initiate trade enforcement actions against countries like China?
Will he designate any country as a currency manipulator?
Will he embrace the House Republican Corporate Tax Plan that includes the “Border Adjustment
Tax” on imports?
Will he pursue other manufacturing-friendly policies?
Trump has some decisions to make
11. 11PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
NAFTA Rules of Origin
Anti-Dumping and Countervailing Duties
Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax (Border
Adjustment Tax)
WTO Appellate Body Over-reach
Your vocabulary is about to expand
12. 12PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
Currently 62.5% of the value of an assembled
automobile must be North American content to
receive duty-free NAFTA treatment within the
North American market
Imagine the sourcing shifts if that percentage
were raised to 90%
Case Study: NAFTA Automobile Rules of Origin
13. 13PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
Imports into the United States are currently not subject to any corporate taxation. We are joined by
a handful of countries such as Somalia and Cuba in lacking such a tax.
160 nations have a Value-Added Tax (VAT) which subjects imports (and other goods) to a tax, and
rebates taxes for exports.
The DBCFT would lower the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20%, apply it to sales, including
imports, exempt exports, allow expensing and wage deductions.
Case Study: Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax
14. 14PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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…at least not yet
China.
Congress.
Monetary policy.
Technological change and waves of history.
But here are some things Trump can’t control
15. 15PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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Steam engine (early 1800s)
Mass production (1920s)
First automation wave (1970s)
We’re at the cusp of Industry 4.0
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Proximity to customers matters most.
Smaller, more flexible factories means more
opportunity.
East to West sourcing flows will become more
regional.
With policy shifts, Industry 4.0 creates a new sourcing strategy.
17. 17PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
OFFSHORING: OUT
RESHORING: IN
18. 18PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
You’ll need to take a new look at reshoring.
You’ll need to rethink your supply chain.
You’ll want Trump tweeting about your
decisions in a good way…
…and not a bad way.
What Does “America’s Brexit” Mean for Sourcing?
20. 20PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
Like financial markets, supply chains crave certainty
22. 22PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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In the new global paradigm, where are the risks in your supply chain?
24. Have you been war gaming the potential disruption to your supply chain or the
opportunities the changing tides will bring?
25. 25PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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OFFSHORING: OUT
RESHORING: IN
MAYBE!!
26. 26PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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Manufacturing production at an all time high as
manufacturing employment decreases
27. 27PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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• Since 1989
• Halved workforce
• Doubled output
Kyocera Precision Tools
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• Identify the top 21 commodity candidates
for reshoring investigation
• Underperforming suppliers
• Geopolitical instability
• Trade targets for the new administration
• Work with your SAP Ariba Discovery team
to run supplier identification events in the
United States
• Live benchmarking
• Cost savings
• Transition production closer to markets of
consumption
Prudence dictates substantial
investigation
Commodities
Supply Chain
29. 29PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
Public
The Power of the Network is the Power to Manage Change
30. 30PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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Strong supplier community = Risk Mitigation
31. 31PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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Find suppliers for common – or uncommon – things
© 2016 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 31Public
Major U.S. retailer: $1 million,
Artificial Christmas trees
Food distribution company: $1 million,
Peanuts in shells
Consumer products company: $1 million,
Toilet paper
Specialty retailer: $500,000,
Pickles
Major retailer: $500,000,
Organic dog treats
Beauty salon: $50,000,
Human hair
32. 32PUBLIC© 2017 SAP SE or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. ǀ
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