Finance Day in the Market Presentation
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This is the final presentation of the Finance 210 module. The purpose of this presentation is to analyze a single day in the market and targeting the major announcements and effects on the economy.
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Finance Day in the Market Presentation
- 1. DAY IN THE MARKET November 19th, 2015 Samy Djouder & Anthony Toupin
- 2. November 19th Outline Market Focus Jobless Claims Philadelphia Fed Consumer Index Gas Report Fed Balance Sheet T-Bill EUR/USD Commodities Money Supply
- 3. “Initial jobless claims will offer a sample-week to sample-week comparison with the November employment report, and a third straight high reading could lower expectations for the report. And check out the new 8:30 slot for the Philly Fed!” Market Focus If Jobless claims Employment Report & Economy
- 4. Jobless Claims - 1,84% New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility. Definition
- 5. Philadelphia Fed The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production. Definition
- 6. Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index -0,97% The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly, random-sample survey tracking Americans' views on the condition of the U.S. economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Definition
- 7. Gas Report Natural gas in storage rose 15 billion cubic feet in the November 13 week to 4,000 bcf. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and three regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products. Definition
- 8. T-Bill Announcement 3 Month Announcement 6 Month Announcement
- 9. T-Bill Announcement 3 Month Announcement 6 Month Announcement % Change 3 Month T-Bill Date 28 2015 16,67% 24 2014 -12,50% 32 2013 -12,50% 32 2012 -3,45% 29 2011 Average $29.25B Actual $28B In Billion$ < -4.27% % Change 6 Month T-Bill Date 26 2015 -7,14% 28 2014 -7,14% 28 2013 -7,14% 28 2012 -3,70% 27 2011 Average $27.75B Actual $26B < -6.31% In Billion$
- 10. Yield Curve 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Yield Curve versus 1 Day versus 1 Month 11/19/15 11/18/15 10/19/15 Compared to the day before: US Treasury price Long term Yields Compared to one month before: US Treasury price Yields Yield (%) Time to Maturity
- 11. Fed Balance Sheet -0,11% The Fed's balance sheet is a report showing factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing (using) reserve funds. Definition
- 12. Money Supply The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures. Definition
- 13. Currency : EUR/USD Most important 24 hours this year in volatility percentage change. Speculation about December 3 hat the BCE may announce further monetary stimulus, making the Dollar getting weaker.
- 14. Commodity : Gold As the Dollar weakened, gold became more affordable for foreign buyers causing an increase in demand and therefore a spike in price, which was out of 5 years low the day before.
- 15. Stock Market : Overview 17,732.75 / -4.41pts / -0.02% 2,081.24 / -2.34pts / -0.11% 5,073.64 / -1.56pts / -0.03% Low
- 16. Stock Market : Focus on United Health Because of too much loss due to the Obamacare plan, rumors said that United Health (the most important personal insurer in the US) could drop out of the Obamacare program, making it lost 550,000 subscribers. -5,65% in 1 day !!
- 18. Market Overview S&P 500, November 19th Philadelpha Fed increase + Gold rush Bloomberg Consumer index decrease T-Bill Announcement
- 19. Thank you for listening !
Notas do Editor
- Expected Results on the market: Unemployment down Spending power up Improving labor market conditions Healthier stock and bond markets
- Expected results on the market: Low to moderate economic growth Corporate profits up Bond market healthier because it prefers moderate growth
- Expected results on the market: Consumer spending down Economic decay and corporate profits down Stock and bond markets down
- Expected results on the market: Inventory up Demand up Prices up
- Expected results on the market: Demand for bonds down Price of bonds down Interest rates up Money supply down GDP down Unemployment up Consumption down Bad economic health
- Expected results on the market: Money supply down Interest rates up Aggregate demand down GDP down Bad economic health It’s time to buy bonds
- Expected results on the market: USD down Net export up GDP up Unemployment down
- Expected results on the market: Price of safe investment up Demand for safe investment up Economic growth expected
- Expected results on the market: Stock market in the sector down Overall stock market down