ILO_Productivity2016
•
1 gostou•721 visualizações
1. Growth in Latin America has slowed in recent years while political capital is limited. 2. The region is lagging in terms of productivity, skills development, infrastructure investment, and participation in global and regional value chains which has contributed to the middle-income trap. 3. While inequality has decreased with social programs and redistribution, challenges remain in terms of quality jobs, gender equality, and informality which hampers efforts for inclusive growth.
Recomendados
Mais conteúdo relacionado
Mais procurados
Mais procurados (19)
Semelhante a ILO_Productivity2016
Semelhante a ILO_Productivity2016 (20)
Mais de AngelMelguizo
Mais de AngelMelguizo (20)
Último
Último (20)
ILO_Productivity2016
- 1. On productivity and inclusive growth in Latin America Angel Melguizo, Head, Latin American Unit OECD Development Centre Foro Empresarial: Futuro de la productividad en America Latina ILO Lima, August 23-24 2016
- 2. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is gone -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % OECD Latin America and the Caribbean Source: OECD Economic Outlook 99 database for OECD. For Latin America 2000- 2014 CEPALSTAT, and 2015- 2017 Latin American Consensus Forecasts May 2016 GDP growth in Latin America and the OECD (% annual)
- 3. And political capital is limited Note: Favorable tweets to Neves or Rouseff according to geographic location Source: FT
- 4. The test on socio-economic progress is coming Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2016), Latin American Economic Outlook 2017. Youth, skills and entrepreneurship. Forthcoming GDP growth and poverty rates in Latin America (%) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1980 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Poverty Growth (RHS)
- 5. Americas Latinas ARG BHS BRB BOL BRA CHL COL CRI DOM ECU SLV GTM HND JAMMEX NIC PAN PRY PER URY VEN -0.04 -0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 Illustration of the cyclical position of selected Latin American economies (2016, deviation from the trend using the HP filter) Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2016), Latin American Economic Outlook 2017. Youth, skills and entrepreneurship. Forthcoming
- 6. “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything” (P. Krugman) Labour productivity in selected Latin American and Asian economies (% productivity of the US, 5 year moving average, PPP) Source: Melguizo, A. and J.R. Perea (2015), “Skill gaps in emerging economies: An empirical analysis”, Working Paper No. 329, OECD Development Centre 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 Chile Korea Latin America China Argentina Brazil
- 7. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth
- 8. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth: pillars • Productivity Middle-income trap Infrastructure, Skills, Finance, Taxes, … • Inclusion Poverty and middle-class vulnerability Taxes, transfers (pensions, CCTs), services, jobs … • Governance Domestic and international - Shifting Wealth Regional integration, trust… OECD LAC Regional Programme
- 9. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth • Productivity Middle-income trap Infrastructure, Skills, Finance, Taxes, … • Inclusion Poverty and middle-class vulnerability Taxes, transfers (pensions, CCTs), services, jobs … • Governance Domestic and international - Shifting Wealth Regional integration, trust… OECD LAC Regional Programme
- 10. Lack of productivity convergence... Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 11. … at the core of per capita income differences Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 12. Latin America and the middle income trap Source: OECD Development Centre (2016), “Overcoming the middle income trap in Latin America: The role of skills, infrastructure, finance and fiscal policy” GDP per capita in Latin American economies and OECD (GDP per capita, PPP in USD from 1990) 1800 2800 3800 4800 5800 6800 7800 8800 9800 10800 11800 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 GDPpercapitaconstant1990PPPdollars Uruguay Chile Argentina Panama Costa Rica Mexico Colombia Brazil Peru Venezuela LAC 8 OECD average HIGH MIDDLE LOW
- 13. Learning from OECD experiences? Source: OECD Development Centre (2016), “Overcoming the middle income trap in Latin America: The role of skills, infrastructure, finance and fiscal policy” GDP per capita in OECD economies and LAC (GDP per capita, PPP in USD from 1990) 1800 2800 3800 4800 5800 6800 7800 8800 9800 10800 11800 GDPpercapitaconstant1990PPPdollars Ireland Israel Poland Singapore Spain Portugal Greece Malaysia South Korea China LAC avg HIGH MIDDLE LOW
- 14. 14Source: Carranza, L., C. Daude and A. Melguizo (2014), “Public investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: Incompatible goals?” , Journal of Economic Studies, vol.41, n.1, pp.29-50 Infrastructure investment in Latin America (% GDP) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Total Publica Low infrastructure investment (despite PPPs)…
- 15. 15Source: Balmaseda, M., C. Daude, A. Melguizo and L. Taft(2010), “Infrastructure patterns in emerging markets: An empirical analysis with a focus on Latin America” , Global Economic and Construction Outlook, June, pp. 25-31, CEMEX Economic Analysis Infraestructure gaps in Latin America and emerging economies (% pattern) Paved roads Electric energy 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200% 240% 280% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 LatAm MAX-min LatAm Asia Eastern Europe 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 LatAm MAX-MIN LatAm Asia Eastern Europe … has generated a significant gap (roads and energy)
- 16. Source: OECD-ECLAC-CAF (2013), Latin American Economic Outlook 2014, using The Conference Board Total Economy Database, World Bank (LPI) and COMTRADE Logistics and productivity (Partial correlation, 2012) ARG BOL BRA CHL COL CRIDOM ECU GTM JAM MEX PER URYVEN -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 OECD Other countries Latin America LabourproductivitynotexplainedbyGDPpercapita Logistics performance not explained by GDP per capita Beyond infrastructures: logistics matter…
- 17. 17 Source: OECD-ECLAC-CAF (2013), Latin American Economic Outlook 2014,using COMTRADE Note: Logistics-intensive sectors include mining, forestry and logging, wood manufacturing, paper publishing and printing Time-sensitive sectors include agriculture, fisheries, food and drink manufacturing, clothing and horticulture. LAC-18 Time-sensitive, logistics-intensive exports (%, 2010) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Logistics-intensive Time-sensitive … given Latin American exports basket
- 18. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Venezuela(Bol.Rep.of) Brazil Sub-SaharanAfrica EastAsiaandPacific LatinAmericaand Caribbean CostaRica DominicanRep. Peru Panama Mexico Colombia MiddleEastandNorth Africa Uruguay Argentina Chile SouthAsia OECDhigh-income selection EuropeandCentralAsia Average Manufacturing sector na. 18 Source: OECD-ECLAC-CAF (2013), Latin American Economic Outlook 2014,using World Bank Enterprise Survey Days needed to clear direct exports through customs The logistics gap stems from costly customs procedures
- 19. Latin America is lagging behind in global value chains… Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 20. Note: LAC6 covers Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico. ‘Full sample’ covers 61 high- and middle-income countries Source: OECD-ECLAC-CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2016, based on TiVA database and OECD/WTO (2015) .. as well as in regional value chains 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Intraregional China Intraregional China Backward linkages Forward linkages % Intraregional and China's share in Latin America's GVC linkages 2000 2011
- 21. Low accumulation also affects knowledge capital… Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 22. … and the spread of the digital economy Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 23. The skills gap is also pervasive in Latin America… Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2014), Latin American Economic Outlook 2015. Education, skills and innovation for development , using WB Entreprise Survey
- 24. Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2014), Latin American Economic Outlook 2015. Education, skills and innovation for development , using WB Entreprise Survey .. notably in dynamic industries
- 25. Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series Regulation burden (i.e. barriers to trade, investment and entrepreneurship) is higher than in the OECD
- 26. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth • Productivity Middle-income trap Infrastructure, Skills, Finance, Taxes, … • Inclusion Poverty and middle-class vulnerability Taxes, transfers (pensions, CCTs), services, jobs … • Governance Domestic and international - Shifting Wealth Regional integration, trust… OECD LAC Regional Programme
- 27. Income inequality has fallen, from very high levels…
- 28. … reducing the gap with OECD countries Inequality in Chile, Mexico, the US and the OECD (Gini of income inequality) 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Ginicoefficientofincomeinequality Source: OECD (2014), “Does income inequality hurt economic growth?”, Focus in Inequality and Growth.
- 29. 29 Source: ECLAC (2014), El impacto distributivo de la accion fiscal en America Latina. Inequality in Latin America and the OECD (Gini indexes before direct taxes, education and health services) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ARG BOL BRA CHL COL CRI ECU SLV HND MEX NIC PAN PAR PER DOM URY OECD Inequality is similar in OECD and Latin America before taxes, transfers and services…
- 30. 30 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ARG BOL BRA CHL COL CRI ECU SLV HND MEX NIC PAN PAR PER DOM URY OECD Market income Disposable extended income Source: ECLAC (2014), El impacto distributivo de la accion fiscal en America Latina Inequality in Latin America and the OECD (Gini indexes before direct taxes, education and health services) … but redistribution is weaker
- 31. 31 … but redistribution is weaker Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 32. Source: OECD (2011), Latin American Economic Outlook 2012: Transforming the State for Development Inequality in Chile, Mexico and the OECD (Gini indexes before and after taxes and public spending) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Chile Mexico OECD Market income + Monetary transfers - Direct taxes + Education (in kind) + Health (in kind) Direct taxes and cash transfers at the core
- 33. Gender inequality is also evident in many dimensions (education, jobs, credit, …) Figure 3: Uneven progresses in gender pay gaps across Pacific Alliance countries Difference between male and female median earnings divided by the male median earnings (a) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 COL MEX OECD CHL PER % 2010-2014 average 2000-2009 average Source: OECD (2016), Gender equality in the Pacific Alliance. Promoting women's economic empowerment Figure 4: Women are more likely than men to live in poverty in Chile and Mexico Poverty headcount for total population, measured as 50% of current median income, before and after taxes and transfers 2013 (Chile) and 2014 (Mexico) Note: Based on pre- and post-tax and transfer household income.
- 34. Most jobs are informal… ALC-19, 55% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 HND NIC BOL GTM PER PRY SLV MEX ECU VEN DOM COL JAM ARG PAN BRA CHL CRI URY Source: IDB Labor Markets and Social Security Information System (SIMS) Informality in Latin America (% of workers 16-64 who contribute to social insurance, 2013)
- 35. …dampening quality Note: The sample covers Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, India, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and Russia Fuente: OECD (2015), Enhancing job quality in emerging economies Jobs quality framework in emerging economies
- 36. Better jobs are needed to build and consolidate the emerging middle class Source: Lustig, N. and A. Melguizo (2015), “How middle class are middle-income households in Latin America?”. VoxLACEA, May 20, 2015 Informality among the emerging middle class (% of households without a contributor to pensions/health) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% URY CRI BRA MEX COL PER BOL SLV GTM Vulnerables (4-10 USD/dia) Clase media (10-50 USD/dia)
- 37. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth • Productivity Middle-income trap Infrastructure, Skills, Finance, Taxes, … • Inclusion Poverty and middle-class vulnerability Taxes, transfers (pensions, CCTs), services, jobs … • Governance Domestic and international - Shifting Wealth Regional integration, trust… OECD LAC Regional Programme
- 38. Positioning in a shifting wealth world… Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2016. Towards a new partnership with China Contribution to global growth by regions (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-21 Economías avanzadas China América Latina India
- 39. … and regaining trust domestically (transparency) Confidence in elections (%, 2014) Source: OECD/ECLAC/CAF (2016), Latin American Economic Outlook 2017. Youth, skills and entrepreneurship. Forthcoming, using Gallup World Monitor, 2015
- 40. Agenda for productivity and inclusive growth: nexus Productivity and inclusiveness are closely linked
- 41. Inequalities are evident in productivity among firms in OECD countries, impacting wages Source: OECD (2016), The productivity-inclusiveness nexus
- 42. Inequalities in productivity are also visible among territories… Source: OECD (2016), The productivity-inclusiveness nexus
- 43. … notably urban vs rural (impacting regional income) Source: OECD (2016), The productivity-inclusiveness nexus
- 44. Double dividend from good investments in education&skills: productivity and equity… Source: OECD (2016), Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series
- 45. 45 Quality of schools’ resources and students’ socio-economic status (Correlation; value between 0=no impact and 1=full impact; PISA 2012 database) Source: OECD-ECLAC-CAF (2015), Latin American Economic Outlook 2015. Education, Skills and Innovation for Development … starting with a more progressive allocation of resources
- 46. • Latin America needs a proactive agenda for inclusive growth • Productivity, inclusion and governance should drive the short- and long-term policy agenda • Middle-income trap (infrastructures, skills…) • Middle-class economies (jobs, taxes, expenditure) • Trust • Policies should factor in the linkages between productivity and inclusiveness • Wave of presidential elections 2016-2018: window of opportunity? Conclusions
- 47. 47 América invertida. Joaquín Torres García, 1943 Innovation – also in policies – is needed
- 48. OECD recent and forthcoming work • Promoting productivity for inclusive growth in Latin America – Better Policies Series • The productivity-inclusiveness nexus • Latin American Economic Outlook 2015. Education, Skills and Innovation for Development • Latin American Economic Outlook 2017. Youth, Skillls and Entrepreneurship