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JLL Research
St. Louis | Q3 2019
Industrial
Outlook
An in-depth look at the
St. Louis industrial
market. Analysis
includes insight, stats,
and leasing.
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Q3 2019
St. Louis
Industrial Insight
The trend of build-to-suit projects dominating new construction continued
this quarter with Phillips 66, Cosmos Corporation, and Medline kicking off its
build-to-suit projects. Those starts accounted for half of the six construction
starts that began this quarter. World Wide Technology delivered one of its
1,010,880 square foot buildings in Gateway Commerce Center, which
accounted for almost all of the quarter’s positive absorption. In somewhat of
a surprising move, World Wide Technology also renewed its lease at Lakeview
Commerce Center II for another five years (540,000 square feet).
Blackstone Group agreed to purchase a portfolio of properties containing 60
million square feet and 465 warehouses from Colony Capital. The portfolio
contains 8 properties and over 1.3 million square feet in the St. Louis market.
The properties are spread across the North County, Mid County, and South
County submarkets. The sale removes Colony Capital from the St. Louis
market after it sold a smaller portfolio of industrial buildings to Diamond
Properties earlier this year.
St. Louis employment growth has remained strong and outpaced national
growth by a small margin. Driven in a large part due to the growth in the
industrial sectors. Manufacturing employment growth is up 4.1 percent year-
over-year and at its highest point since 2009.
Outlook
With several speculative buildings containing large blocks of availability set to
deliver before the end of the year, expect vacancy and asking rents to
increase. The availabilities also present an opportunity for big chunks of
positive absorption through the end of the year and the beginning of next
year.
Fundamentals Forecast
YTD net absorption 2,824,469 s.f. ▲
QTD net absorption 1,028,612 s.f. ▲
Under construction 4,790,011 s.f. ▼
Total vacancy 4.9% ▲
Average asking rent (NNN) $4.32 p.s.f. ▲
Tenant improvements Flat ▶
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
2019
Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption
Deliveries
More build to suit projects break ground
6.7%
5.8%
5.3%
4.4%
4.9%
2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019
Total vacancy
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019
Average asking rents ($/s.f.)
W&D Manufacturing
For more information, contact: Andrew Thompson | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
• Build-to-suit projects are still responsible for over 50.0 percent of new
construction.
• Vacancy reaches its highest point in over a year as it nears 5.0 percent.
• Leasing activity continues to trend towards smaller tenants; the
average lease size this quarter was 83,744 square feet.
St. Louis
Q3 2019
Industrial development
This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f.
Total leased at delivery (%) 79.8%
Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 1,026,600
Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 2,346,252
Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties delivered 7
Asking rental rate (low - high) $4.50 - $4.50
Top projects delivered to date
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
WWT Building I 1,000,000 Q3 2019 100%
Amazon DC 855,000 2019 100%
Hazelwood Tradeport III 493,000 Q1 2019 25%
FedEx DC 491,252 Q2 2019 100%
Premier 370 1001 375,200 Q1 2019 0%
Total pre-leased (%) 38.6%
Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 2,375,331
Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 2,103,800
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties UC 13
Asking rental rate (low - high) $5.15 - $6.25
Top projects currently under construction
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%)
WWT Building II 1,000,000 Q4 2019 100%
Medline @ Premier 370 811,300 2020 100%
100 Inner Park Dr 674,752 Q3 2019 0%
Gateway Tradeport I 543,740 Q4 2019 0%
Melton Machine Building 300,000 2020 100%
Historical deliveries (s.f.)
New deliveries
3,672,852
Total delivered YTD (s.f.)
Completions in-depth
Submarket Owner Construction type
Metro East Tristar BTS
St. Charles County Duke Realty BTS
North County Northpoint Speculative
Submarket Owner Construction type
St. Charles County Scannell Properties BTS
St. Charles County Duke Realty Speculative
Under construction
4,779,131
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Under construction by submarket
Metro East Tristar BTS
St. Charles County Medline BTS
Other Melton Machine Owner-user
Metro East Exeter Property Group Speculative
Metro East Northpoint Speculative
2,320,992
1,201,300
429,089
372,750
300,000
155,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Metro East St. Charles County North County South County Other St. Louis City
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: JLL Research 2019Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
St. Louis
Q3 2019
Industrial Statistics
Inventory
(s.f.)
Quarterly
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(% of stock)
Total
vacancy
(%)
Total
availability
(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($ p.s.f.)
Quarterly
completions
(s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Market Totals
Warehouse & Distribution 158,586,472 964,101 3,037,999 1.9% 6.1% 8.3% $4.39 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,300,011
Manufacturing 60,215,169 64,511 -213,530 -0.4% 1.7% 2.6% $3.74 0 0 490,000
Total Industrial 218,801,641 1,028,612 2,824,469 1.3% 4.9% 6.7% $4.32 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,790,011
Submarkets
Metro East
Warehouse & Distribution 28,867,819 1,010,880 1,090,255 3.8% 6.3% 8.7% $4.15 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872
Manufacturing 9,469,754 0 -148,234 -1.6% 2.1% 4.8% $4.25 0 0 0
Total Industrial 38,337,573 1,010,880 942,021 2.5% 5.3% 7.8% $4.16 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872
St. Louis City
Warehouse & Distribution 34,881,952 -130,602 -162,134 -0.5% 4.9% 4.9% $4.02 0 0 155,000
Manufacturing 16,559,349 28,000 28,000 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% $2.55 0 0 0
Total Industrial 51,441,301 -102,602 -134,134 -0.3% 4.2% 4.4% $3.68 0 0 155,000
Mid County
Warehouse & Distribution 21,592,596 -92,632 47,737 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% $4.56 0 0 0
Manufacturing 5,820,995 0 4,886 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% $3.80 0 0 0
Total Industrial 27,413,591 -92,632 52,623 0.2% 3.0% 3.9% $4.54 0 0 0
South County
Warehouse & Distribution 8,936,403 -76,075 284,106 3.2% 10.7% 11.0% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750
Manufacturing 3,933,131 36,000 42,520 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% $5.28 0 0 0
Total Industrial 12,869,534 -40,075 326,626 2.5% 7.9% 8.1% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750
West County
Warehouse & Distribution 2,551,795 3,640 -65,888 -2.6% 3.6% 3.6% $5.92 0 0 0
Manufacturing 2,799,134 -4,489 -136,485 -4.9% 5.0% 5.4% $5.50 0 0 0
Total Industrial 5,350,929 -849 -202,373 -3.8% 4.4% 4.5% $5.66 0 0 0
North County
Warehouse & Distribution 37,015,552 63,549 371,060 1.0% 8.7% 14.9% $3.95 0 493,000 429,089
Manufacturing 9,267,205 0 -14,217 -0.2% 1.3% 2.1% $4.39 0 0 0
Total Industrial 46,282,757 63,549 356,843 0.8% 7.3% 12.3% $3.97 0 493,000 429,089
St. Charles County
Warehouse & Distribution 17,462,126 104,841 1,412,863 8.1% 5.3% 6.5% $4.75 0 1,721,452 1,011,300
Manufacturing 8,115,858 5,000 10,000 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $3.40 0 0 190000
Total Industrial 25,577,984 109,841 1,422,863 5.6% 3.6% 4.5% $4.74 0 1,721,452 1,201,300
Other Counties
Warehouse & Distribution 7,278,229 80,500 60,000 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% $3.37 0 0 0
Manufacturing 4,249,743 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% $3.05 0 0 300000
Total Industrial 11,527,972 80,500 60,000 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% $3.20 0 0 300,000
Andrew Thompson | Senior Research Analyst
211 N Broadway, St. Louis, MO 63102 | tel +1 314 202 8628 | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
St. Louis | Q3 2019
Industrial job growth remains strong
Employment Update
3.3%
St. Louis
unemployment
3.2%
Missouri
unemployment
3.7%
U.S.
unemployment
1.9%
St. Louis
12-month job
growth
1.2%
Missouri 12-
month job
growth
1.4%
U.S. 12-month
job growth
Total jobs vs. unemployment rate
Industrial employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Job growth/loss by sector
(12-month change)
Office employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Labor force and employment trends
Job growth: United States vs. St. Louis
(12-month change)
Employment
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
labor force
employment
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
Total Employment
Unemployment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Financial Activities PBS Information Government
-2
3
8
13
18 Mining, Logging & Const Trade, Transp & Util
Manufacturing Other Services
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2013 2015 2017 2019
St. Louis U.S.
-1,400
400
2,900
1,600
1,300
2,300
4,300
7,100
5,100
2,800
Other Services
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Educational & Health Services
Government
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Trade, Transportation &…
Professional & Business Services
Number
of jobs
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.
Andrew Thompson
Senior Research Analyst
+1 314 202 8628
andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
About JLL
A JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm
that specializes in real estate and investment
management. Our vision is to reimagine the world of real
estate, creating rewarding opportunities and amazing
spaces where people can achieve their ambitions. In
doing so, we will build a better tomorrow for our clients,
our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500
company with nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in
over 80 countries and a global workforce of 86,000 as of
June 30, 2018. JLL is the brand name, and a registered
trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For
further information, visit jll.com
About JLL Research
JLL’s industry-leading research group delivers
commercial real estate analysis and insights that drive
value in real estate decisions and support successful
strategies. In the Americas, 210 dedicated research
professionals produced more than 2,000 research reports
in 2016, educating and influencing readers with industry-
leading intelligence on real estate markets, forecasts and
trends.

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JLL St. Louis Industrial Outlook Q3 2019

  • 1. JLL Research St. Louis | Q3 2019 Industrial Outlook An in-depth look at the St. Louis industrial market. Analysis includes insight, stats, and leasing.
  • 2. © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Q3 2019 St. Louis Industrial Insight The trend of build-to-suit projects dominating new construction continued this quarter with Phillips 66, Cosmos Corporation, and Medline kicking off its build-to-suit projects. Those starts accounted for half of the six construction starts that began this quarter. World Wide Technology delivered one of its 1,010,880 square foot buildings in Gateway Commerce Center, which accounted for almost all of the quarter’s positive absorption. In somewhat of a surprising move, World Wide Technology also renewed its lease at Lakeview Commerce Center II for another five years (540,000 square feet). Blackstone Group agreed to purchase a portfolio of properties containing 60 million square feet and 465 warehouses from Colony Capital. The portfolio contains 8 properties and over 1.3 million square feet in the St. Louis market. The properties are spread across the North County, Mid County, and South County submarkets. The sale removes Colony Capital from the St. Louis market after it sold a smaller portfolio of industrial buildings to Diamond Properties earlier this year. St. Louis employment growth has remained strong and outpaced national growth by a small margin. Driven in a large part due to the growth in the industrial sectors. Manufacturing employment growth is up 4.1 percent year- over-year and at its highest point since 2009. Outlook With several speculative buildings containing large blocks of availability set to deliver before the end of the year, expect vacancy and asking rents to increase. The availabilities also present an opportunity for big chunks of positive absorption through the end of the year and the beginning of next year. Fundamentals Forecast YTD net absorption 2,824,469 s.f. ▲ QTD net absorption 1,028,612 s.f. ▲ Under construction 4,790,011 s.f. ▼ Total vacancy 4.9% ▲ Average asking rent (NNN) $4.32 p.s.f. ▲ Tenant improvements Flat ▶ 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Supply and demand (s.f.) Net absorption Deliveries More build to suit projects break ground 6.7% 5.8% 5.3% 4.4% 4.9% 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Total vacancy $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD 2019 Average asking rents ($/s.f.) W&D Manufacturing For more information, contact: Andrew Thompson | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com • Build-to-suit projects are still responsible for over 50.0 percent of new construction. • Vacancy reaches its highest point in over a year as it nears 5.0 percent. • Leasing activity continues to trend towards smaller tenants; the average lease size this quarter was 83,744 square feet.
  • 3. St. Louis Q3 2019 Industrial development This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f. Total leased at delivery (%) 79.8% Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 1,026,600 Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 2,346,252 Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000 Total # of properties delivered 7 Asking rental rate (low - high) $4.50 - $4.50 Top projects delivered to date Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Leased at delivery (%) WWT Building I 1,000,000 Q3 2019 100% Amazon DC 855,000 2019 100% Hazelwood Tradeport III 493,000 Q1 2019 25% FedEx DC 491,252 Q2 2019 100% Premier 370 1001 375,200 Q1 2019 0% Total pre-leased (%) 38.6% Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 2,375,331 Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 2,103,800 Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 300,000 Total # of properties UC 13 Asking rental rate (low - high) $5.15 - $6.25 Top projects currently under construction Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%) WWT Building II 1,000,000 Q4 2019 100% Medline @ Premier 370 811,300 2020 100% 100 Inner Park Dr 674,752 Q3 2019 0% Gateway Tradeport I 543,740 Q4 2019 0% Melton Machine Building 300,000 2020 100% Historical deliveries (s.f.) New deliveries 3,672,852 Total delivered YTD (s.f.) Completions in-depth Submarket Owner Construction type Metro East Tristar BTS St. Charles County Duke Realty BTS North County Northpoint Speculative Submarket Owner Construction type St. Charles County Scannell Properties BTS St. Charles County Duke Realty Speculative Under construction 4,779,131 Under construction (s.f.) Under construction in-depth Under construction by submarket Metro East Tristar BTS St. Charles County Medline BTS Other Melton Machine Owner-user Metro East Exeter Property Group Speculative Metro East Northpoint Speculative 2,320,992 1,201,300 429,089 372,750 300,000 155,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 Metro East St. Charles County North County South County Other St. Louis City 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: JLL Research 2019Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 4. St. Louis Q3 2019 Industrial Statistics Inventory (s.f.) Quarterly total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (s.f.) YTD total net absorption (% of stock) Total vacancy (%) Total availability (%) Average total asking rent ($ p.s.f.) Quarterly completions (s.f.) YTD completions (s.f.) Under construction (s.f.) Market Totals Warehouse & Distribution 158,586,472 964,101 3,037,999 1.9% 6.1% 8.3% $4.39 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,300,011 Manufacturing 60,215,169 64,511 -213,530 -0.4% 1.7% 2.6% $3.74 0 0 490,000 Total Industrial 218,801,641 1,028,612 2,824,469 1.3% 4.9% 6.7% $4.32 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,790,011 Submarkets Metro East Warehouse & Distribution 28,867,819 1,010,880 1,090,255 3.8% 6.3% 8.7% $4.15 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872 Manufacturing 9,469,754 0 -148,234 -1.6% 2.1% 4.8% $4.25 0 0 0 Total Industrial 38,337,573 1,010,880 942,021 2.5% 5.3% 7.8% $4.16 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872 St. Louis City Warehouse & Distribution 34,881,952 -130,602 -162,134 -0.5% 4.9% 4.9% $4.02 0 0 155,000 Manufacturing 16,559,349 28,000 28,000 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% $2.55 0 0 0 Total Industrial 51,441,301 -102,602 -134,134 -0.3% 4.2% 4.4% $3.68 0 0 155,000 Mid County Warehouse & Distribution 21,592,596 -92,632 47,737 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% $4.56 0 0 0 Manufacturing 5,820,995 0 4,886 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% $3.80 0 0 0 Total Industrial 27,413,591 -92,632 52,623 0.2% 3.0% 3.9% $4.54 0 0 0 South County Warehouse & Distribution 8,936,403 -76,075 284,106 3.2% 10.7% 11.0% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750 Manufacturing 3,933,131 36,000 42,520 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% $5.28 0 0 0 Total Industrial 12,869,534 -40,075 326,626 2.5% 7.9% 8.1% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750 West County Warehouse & Distribution 2,551,795 3,640 -65,888 -2.6% 3.6% 3.6% $5.92 0 0 0 Manufacturing 2,799,134 -4,489 -136,485 -4.9% 5.0% 5.4% $5.50 0 0 0 Total Industrial 5,350,929 -849 -202,373 -3.8% 4.4% 4.5% $5.66 0 0 0 North County Warehouse & Distribution 37,015,552 63,549 371,060 1.0% 8.7% 14.9% $3.95 0 493,000 429,089 Manufacturing 9,267,205 0 -14,217 -0.2% 1.3% 2.1% $4.39 0 0 0 Total Industrial 46,282,757 63,549 356,843 0.8% 7.3% 12.3% $3.97 0 493,000 429,089 St. Charles County Warehouse & Distribution 17,462,126 104,841 1,412,863 8.1% 5.3% 6.5% $4.75 0 1,721,452 1,011,300 Manufacturing 8,115,858 5,000 10,000 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $3.40 0 0 190000 Total Industrial 25,577,984 109,841 1,422,863 5.6% 3.6% 4.5% $4.74 0 1,721,452 1,201,300 Other Counties Warehouse & Distribution 7,278,229 80,500 60,000 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% $3.37 0 0 0 Manufacturing 4,249,743 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% $3.05 0 0 300000 Total Industrial 11,527,972 80,500 60,000 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% $3.20 0 0 300,000 Andrew Thompson | Senior Research Analyst 211 N Broadway, St. Louis, MO 63102 | tel +1 314 202 8628 | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • 5. St. Louis | Q3 2019 Industrial job growth remains strong Employment Update 3.3% St. Louis unemployment 3.2% Missouri unemployment 3.7% U.S. unemployment 1.9% St. Louis 12-month job growth 1.2% Missouri 12- month job growth 1.4% U.S. 12-month job growth Total jobs vs. unemployment rate Industrial employment trends (12-month change in thousands) Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change) Office employment trends (12-month change in thousands) Labor force and employment trends Job growth: United States vs. St. Louis (12-month change) Employment 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2013 2015 2017 2019 Millions labor force employment 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 2013 2015 2017 2019 Millions Total Employment Unemployment -10 -5 0 5 10 15 Financial Activities PBS Information Government -2 3 8 13 18 Mining, Logging & Const Trade, Transp & Util Manufacturing Other Services -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2013 2015 2017 2019 St. Louis U.S. -1,400 400 2,900 1,600 1,300 2,300 4,300 7,100 5,100 2,800 Other Services Information Leisure & Hospitality Financial Activities Educational & Health Services Government Manufacturing Mining and Logging Trade, Transportation &… Professional & Business Services Number of jobs
  • 6. © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof. Andrew Thompson Senior Research Analyst +1 314 202 8628 andrew.thompson@am.jll.com About JLL A JLL (NYSE: JLL) is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management. Our vision is to reimagine the world of real estate, creating rewarding opportunities and amazing spaces where people can achieve their ambitions. In doing so, we will build a better tomorrow for our clients, our people and our communities. JLL is a Fortune 500 company with nearly 300 corporate offices, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of 86,000 as of June 30, 2018. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For further information, visit jll.com About JLL Research JLL’s industry-leading research group delivers commercial real estate analysis and insights that drive value in real estate decisions and support successful strategies. In the Americas, 210 dedicated research professionals produced more than 2,000 research reports in 2016, educating and influencing readers with industry- leading intelligence on real estate markets, forecasts and trends.