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JLL St. Louis Industrial Outlook Q3 2019
1. JLL Research
St. Louis | Q3 2019
Industrial
Outlook
An in-depth look at the
St. Louis industrial
market. Analysis
includes insight, stats,
and leasing.
3. St. Louis
Q3 2019
Industrial development
This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f.
Total leased at delivery (%) 79.8%
Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 1,026,600
Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 2,346,252
Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties delivered 7
Asking rental rate (low - high) $4.50 - $4.50
Top projects delivered to date
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
WWT Building I 1,000,000 Q3 2019 100%
Amazon DC 855,000 2019 100%
Hazelwood Tradeport III 493,000 Q1 2019 25%
FedEx DC 491,252 Q2 2019 100%
Premier 370 1001 375,200 Q1 2019 0%
Total pre-leased (%) 38.6%
Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 2,375,331
Total BTS under construction (s.f.) 2,103,800
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties UC 13
Asking rental rate (low - high) $5.15 - $6.25
Top projects currently under construction
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date Pre-leased (%)
WWT Building II 1,000,000 Q4 2019 100%
Medline @ Premier 370 811,300 2020 100%
100 Inner Park Dr 674,752 Q3 2019 0%
Gateway Tradeport I 543,740 Q4 2019 0%
Melton Machine Building 300,000 2020 100%
Historical deliveries (s.f.)
New deliveries
3,672,852
Total delivered YTD (s.f.)
Completions in-depth
Submarket Owner Construction type
Metro East Tristar BTS
St. Charles County Duke Realty BTS
North County Northpoint Speculative
Submarket Owner Construction type
St. Charles County Scannell Properties BTS
St. Charles County Duke Realty Speculative
Under construction
4,779,131
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Under construction by submarket
Metro East Tristar BTS
St. Charles County Medline BTS
Other Melton Machine Owner-user
Metro East Exeter Property Group Speculative
Metro East Northpoint Speculative
2,320,992
1,201,300
429,089
372,750
300,000
155,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Metro East St. Charles County North County South County Other St. Louis City
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: JLL Research 2019Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
4. St. Louis
Q3 2019
Industrial Statistics
Inventory
(s.f.)
Quarterly
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(% of stock)
Total
vacancy
(%)
Total
availability
(%)
Average
total asking
rent
($ p.s.f.)
Quarterly
completions
(s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Market Totals
Warehouse & Distribution 158,586,472 964,101 3,037,999 1.9% 6.1% 8.3% $4.39 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,300,011
Manufacturing 60,215,169 64,511 -213,530 -0.4% 1.7% 2.6% $3.74 0 0 490,000
Total Industrial 218,801,641 1,028,612 2,824,469 1.3% 4.9% 6.7% $4.32 1,010,880 3,683,732 4,790,011
Submarkets
Metro East
Warehouse & Distribution 28,867,819 1,010,880 1,090,255 3.8% 6.3% 8.7% $4.15 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872
Manufacturing 9,469,754 0 -148,234 -1.6% 2.1% 4.8% $4.25 0 0 0
Total Industrial 38,337,573 1,010,880 942,021 2.5% 5.3% 7.8% $4.16 1,010,880 1,310,880 2,331,872
St. Louis City
Warehouse & Distribution 34,881,952 -130,602 -162,134 -0.5% 4.9% 4.9% $4.02 0 0 155,000
Manufacturing 16,559,349 28,000 28,000 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% $2.55 0 0 0
Total Industrial 51,441,301 -102,602 -134,134 -0.3% 4.2% 4.4% $3.68 0 0 155,000
Mid County
Warehouse & Distribution 21,592,596 -92,632 47,737 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% $4.56 0 0 0
Manufacturing 5,820,995 0 4,886 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% $3.80 0 0 0
Total Industrial 27,413,591 -92,632 52,623 0.2% 3.0% 3.9% $4.54 0 0 0
South County
Warehouse & Distribution 8,936,403 -76,075 284,106 3.2% 10.7% 11.0% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750
Manufacturing 3,933,131 36,000 42,520 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% $5.28 0 0 0
Total Industrial 12,869,534 -40,075 326,626 2.5% 7.9% 8.1% $6.23 0 158,400 372,750
West County
Warehouse & Distribution 2,551,795 3,640 -65,888 -2.6% 3.6% 3.6% $5.92 0 0 0
Manufacturing 2,799,134 -4,489 -136,485 -4.9% 5.0% 5.4% $5.50 0 0 0
Total Industrial 5,350,929 -849 -202,373 -3.8% 4.4% 4.5% $5.66 0 0 0
North County
Warehouse & Distribution 37,015,552 63,549 371,060 1.0% 8.7% 14.9% $3.95 0 493,000 429,089
Manufacturing 9,267,205 0 -14,217 -0.2% 1.3% 2.1% $4.39 0 0 0
Total Industrial 46,282,757 63,549 356,843 0.8% 7.3% 12.3% $3.97 0 493,000 429,089
St. Charles County
Warehouse & Distribution 17,462,126 104,841 1,412,863 8.1% 5.3% 6.5% $4.75 0 1,721,452 1,011,300
Manufacturing 8,115,858 5,000 10,000 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% $3.40 0 0 190000
Total Industrial 25,577,984 109,841 1,422,863 5.6% 3.6% 4.5% $4.74 0 1,721,452 1,201,300
Other Counties
Warehouse & Distribution 7,278,229 80,500 60,000 0.0% 0.7% 1.4% $3.37 0 0 0
Manufacturing 4,249,743 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% $3.05 0 0 300000
Total Industrial 11,527,972 80,500 60,000 0.5% 0.5% 1.9% $3.20 0 0 300,000
Andrew Thompson | Senior Research Analyst
211 N Broadway, St. Louis, MO 63102 | tel +1 314 202 8628 | andrew.thompson@am.jll.com
2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
5. St. Louis | Q3 2019
Industrial job growth remains strong
Employment Update
3.3%
St. Louis
unemployment
3.2%
Missouri
unemployment
3.7%
U.S.
unemployment
1.9%
St. Louis
12-month job
growth
1.2%
Missouri 12-
month job
growth
1.4%
U.S. 12-month
job growth
Total jobs vs. unemployment rate
Industrial employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Job growth/loss by sector
(12-month change)
Office employment trends
(12-month change in thousands)
Labor force and employment trends
Job growth: United States vs. St. Louis
(12-month change)
Employment
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
labor force
employment
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
2013 2015 2017 2019
Millions
Total Employment
Unemployment
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Financial Activities PBS Information Government
-2
3
8
13
18 Mining, Logging & Const Trade, Transp & Util
Manufacturing Other Services
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2013 2015 2017 2019
St. Louis U.S.
-1,400
400
2,900
1,600
1,300
2,300
4,300
7,100
5,100
2,800
Other Services
Information
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Activities
Educational & Health Services
Government
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Trade, Transportation &…
Professional & Business Services
Number
of jobs