Global Messaging Trends 2018

Global Messaging Trends CHina CHat 2018 Grata.co
Global Messaging
Trends 2018
CHina CHat Shanghai
21 September 2018
Andrew Schorr
founder @ Grata.coImage Credit: Flickr @kamshots

It’s been a rough six months for messaging
Chart finance.yahoo.com

Facebook plunged after Q2 Earnings Report
-12.4%
More at https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/319978/whats-next-for-facebook-fb-stock-one-month-after-its-historic-decline
$119B one-day drop. A record.
Despite revenue +42%, earnings +32%
Falling QoQ DAU/MAU in Europe, only
+1% in US/Canada
CFO guidance of long-term declining
operating margins headed to mid-30%

Twitter shares fell 20% in one day
-17.0%
More at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/twitter-earnings-q2-2018.html
The second worse day in Twitter history
Despite third consecutive profitable quarter
Why? QoQ MAU fell (-1%)
Other: GDPR, bot cleanup, and dropping
SMS support in some markets

Tencent is down $200B this year
-28.5%
More at https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tencent-strategy-analysis/tencent-under-pressure-to-step-up-its-game-as-regulatory-restrictions-bite-idUSKCN1LS0MP
Gaming is 40% of Tencent’s revenue and facing
increasing regulatory challenges in China
Net cash position YoY changed from +¥21B to
-¥35B
Concern regarding weak international growth
strategy

Snap is down 60% since IPO
-48.5%
More at https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/snap-sees-its-lowest-open-ever-after-earnings.html
https://www.recode.net/2018/9/16/17861692/snap-stock-decline-explained-user-growth-evan-spiegel
Falling QoQ DAU
Falling time-in-app YoY
Ad prices down 65% YoY
CFO, CSO, VP of Product, VP of Sales,
VP of Engineering, and General
Counsel have all left recently

User growth is slowing
Q2 2017 YoY growth vs. Q2 2018 YoY growth
Source: the companies
17%
11%
20%
10%
21%
8%
5%
3% 3%
2%
-3%
8%
-5% -5%
2017
2018

WhatsApp, Twitter, and
Facebook are all dealing with
fallout from privacy, fake
news, and bot controversies
More at https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/20/technology/whatsapp-india-mob-lynching

Surely WeChat is fine?

WeChat’s International Strategy
Not advertising like it’s 2013 anymore.
Pragmatic focus on China outbound
travel. More WeChat Pay than WeChat.
Merchant acquisition, not user
acquisition.
Official Accounts are open to most
countries, but limited features.
More interesting: Malaysia and South
Africa are only non-China regions with
a local WeChat Wallet
More at https://jingtravel.com/the-chinese-tourists-will-be-wechat-pays-focus-for-next-three-years/
https://www.ft.com/content/6ec974c6-a507-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/tencent-to-push-wechat-pay-in-us-despite-trade-war-with-china.html
2013 WeChat ad campaign in European markets

If you can’t grow abroad,
grow from within.
2018 Strategic Focus:
Mini-Programs, Smart Retail,
WeChat Work, Mini-Games
WeChat Developer Conference January 15, 2018

Launched January 2017 to skeptical public.
Now an unquestionable success.
1M+ apps
200M+ DAU
$450M invested by companies in H1
Baidu, Alibaba, Toutiao all have clones
WeChat Mini-Programs
Valuable real estate: pull-down in
WeChat main screen reveals
recently used Mini-Programs

60+ Entry Points to Mini-Programs. Most popular:
Sharing
Official Account
Pull Down Menu
Discover Tab
Link
Service Message
Search
QR Code
Payment
Desktop Shortcut
26.3%
20.2%
14.0%
8.8%
7.9%
7.7%
3.5%
3.4%
2.4%
2.2%
Source: Jisu App Q2 2018 http://www.3mbang.com/i-1994.html

Closest analog to MPs is Android Instant Apps
Distribution in Google Play, search, messaging,
and deep links
1B+ devices (Jellybean+)
Beta: notifications and 10MB instant apps
But Mini-Programs only work within WeChat.
More at https://developer.android.com/topic/google-play-instant/
Image credit: https://android-developers.googleblog.com

Google Play Ads Search
Boring
old URL
Instant App entry points

Google actually has a great WeChat Mini-Program
Pictionary-like game designed
to highlight Google’s AI
Compare your drawings
with others’
Made for sharing

PWAs are not new, but have strong backing from
Google and Microsoft, implementations from
Twitter, Lyft, Pinterest, Ele.me, Alibaba, et al
Best of apps: Caching, offline support,
notifications
Best of web: anytime code updates, responsive
design, link to anything
Progressive Web Apps work
on even more devices
More at https://www.androidcentral.com/why-progressive-web-apps-pwas-may-ultimately-benefit-google-more-microsoft
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2018/09/progressive-web-apps-moving-mainstream-as-twitter-makes-its-mobile-site-the-main-one/
Twitter's PWA at mobile.twitter.com

Messaging at Work
Workplace Teams Slack WeChat Work DingTalk
1.5M
7M
329K 500K
30K
Not really a fair chart: DingTalk and WeChat Work
count all registered businesses (free accounts)
Unknown how many Microsoft Teams are active,
or just teams using Office 365
70,000 Slack teams are paid
Sources: https://www.businessinsider.com/slack-8-million-users-ipo-2018-5 https://www.techinasia.com/alibaba-enterprise-messenger-dingtalk
https://venturebeat.com/2018/07/26/facebook-acquires-enterprise-messaging-platform-redkix-to-integrate-into-workplace/
https://venturebeat.com/2018/09/24/microsoft-teams-is-now-used-by-329000-organizations-up-from-200000-in-march/

What’s special about WeChat Work?
Payments Interoperability Developer APIs
Turns every employee device into
a point-of-sale device
Employees can directly add their
customers from WeChat
150+ interfaces and SDKS already
familiar to WeChat developers
A video call
between
WeChat and
WeChat Work

Interoperability is a big deal
All of China is already using WeChat. It’s the primary
means of communication.
Employees adding sales leads and customers to their
personal WeChat was a major pain point for businesses.
Tencent’s monopoly with consumers practically
guarantees their success in the workplace. Alibaba’s
DingTalk will never have access to WeChat.
No analog outside of China. Not the same thing as Slack
guest accounts or Facebook Multi-Company Groups.

Workplace by Facebook
30,000+ companies including Walmart,
Starbucks, Spotify, Danone, et al
Similar to WeChat, Facebook benefits from
having nearly ubiquitous consumer adoption. A
familiar product UI is a lower barrier to
workplace adoption (compared to, say, Slack)
Workplace Premium is US$3/month/user
Recent acquisition: Redkix (email)
More at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-08-07/an-inside-look-at-workplace-by-facebook-video
https://medium.com/clevyio/why-we-switched-from-slack-to-workplace-by-facebook-e9ed60a070f1

Slack defined the modern work messenger
1,500+ Apps
70,000 paying teams, 3M paying users
Current strategic focus on large enterprise via
“Enterprise Grid” cloud/on-premise hybrid
Freemium model with $8/mo/user for basic,
$15/mo/user for plus, and more for enterprise
Recent activity: HipChat, Stride, Mission.ai
More at https://slackhq.com/slack-acquires-robot-pencils-missions-to-make-it-easy-for-non-tech-teams-to-streamline-work
https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/646735/slack-targets-enterprise-users-new-features

How will they deal with
overload/fatigue?
No one has killed email yet. Slack now
integrates with email. Facebook acquired
Redkix.
Facebook may have an advantage with
duel-speed Newsfeed + Messaging.
Potential for AI/ML to help filter
Has messaging become overly centralized?
Backlash could see return to platform-
specific messaging/threads
More at https://medium.com/clevyio/why-we-switched-from-slack-to-workplace-by-facebook-e9ed60a070f1

Google Hangouts has
moved to the workplace
Now Hangouts “Chat” for messaging, Hangouts
“Meet” for video conferencing and live-streaming
Google AI, virtual assistant, plus deep integration
with G-Suite tools
Threads and Rooms for up to 8,000 people
Included with G-Suite, so $5/$10/$25/mo/user for
basic, premium, or enterprise
More at https://gsuite.google.com/products/chat

Google Talk
Google Talk
SMS
Huddle
Hangouts
2005 2008 2011
Hangouts
2013
Allo
Duo
Hangouts
2016
Great video and article: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/19/17252486/google-android-messages-chat-rcs-anil-sabharwal-imessage-texting
2018
Hangouts Chat
Hangouts Meet
Hangouts
Duo
Chat
Google’s messaging journey

Android gets upgrade to “Chat”
Android’s default SMS will soon support RCS (Rich
Communication Service) thanks to the Allo team.
High-res photos and videos, group messaging where
supported, SMS when not. Close analog to the green
and blue chat bubbles in iMessage.
Google has always been constrained on what it can do
with default Android messenger. This has been a long,
political slog to implement RCS.
Microsoft also backing RCS, but not Apple.
Great video and article: https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/19/17252486/google-android-messages-chat-rcs-anil-sabharwal-imessage-texting
Android Chat concept

Including two of China’s four major telecoms

WhatsApp still thriving
WeChat users tend to discount WhatsApp for slow
development pace: their last update was stickers and
video calls up to 4 people (!)
But WhatsApp Status is the most used stories feature
of any app at 450M MAU
Founders Acton and Koum both left FB early, forgoing
$1.3B in options, over clash of culture
With founders out now, less resistance to monetization
(Status ads, Business outbound messaging) and
possible easing of data privacy to support stronger
ads targeting Start a WhatsApp for Business chat
from a Facebook Ad
Must read: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-messy-expensive-split-between-facebook-and-whatsapps-founders-1528208641
https://www.businessinsider.com/whatsapp-status-monetizing-stories-2018-8

Many, many reasons to be bearish on Snap, but…
Snap is still young. The original
creator of stories. Instagram’s muse.
Re-redesigned UI
New content partners could help
advertising revenue recover
Tencent, the biggest gaming
platform in the world, owns 17% of
Snap: gaming platform on the way
Latest Spectacles from Snap: “Veronica” and “Nico”
Must at https://www.recode.net/2018/9/13/17852442/snapchat-our-stories-expansion-publishers-revenue-stream

“Over the next decade or
so, the way these pieces
fit together will probably
be what defines our
company.”
-Evan Spiegel
More at https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/05/spectacles-v2-nico-veronica/
http://www.kswo.com/story/39060973/snap-tries-again-snapchat-spectacles-2-have-a-new-look
Lots of problems with v1 Spectacles, but lots
of learning: v2 getting +40% engagement
Latest models are water resistant, get two
microphones, and have broader appeal
(Nieman Marcus and Nordstrom carry them)
Wearables still need time for battery, screen,
and AR technology to improve – will Snap still
be around?
Snap’s long-term software
and hardware strategy

Hardware is increasingly
the frontier of messaging
Glasses Headphones Speakers Watches

Smart hardware accrues more influence
to the OEM than smartphones
Always-on microphones, cameras, and screens are
reducing reliance on smartphones
The hardware OS can influence the communication
channels you use
Potential for hardware to increase app agnosticism
among users with less agency in choosing how a
virtual assistant carries out an action, which could
be disruptive
Amazon Echo Show doesn’t play YouTube

Fastest growing digital time is on “other devices”
+5.4% Overall Growth YoY
+6.5% Mobile
-4.5% PC
+50.0% Other devices
Chart from https://www.kleinerperkins.com/perspectives/internet-trends-report-2018
Daily hours spent on digital media

Smart Speakers +48% YoY
90M devices by end of 2018
Source https://voicebot.ai/2018/06/28/smart-speaker-users-pass-50-million-in-u-s-for-the-first-time/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2018/05/29/smart-speaker-users-growing-48-annually-will-outnumber-wearable-tech-users-this-year

Amazon dominates the market, but losing share
Apple claimed 4.1%
of the market after
only four months on
the market
Source https://voicebot.ai/2018/06/28/smart-speaker-users-pass-50-million-in-u-s-for-the-first-time

No surprise that Apple is
after the high-end market
Homepod gets good reviews for best-in-class
audio quality, but poor Siri functionality
Can Siri keep up? Siri was hardly mentioned
at WWDC in June
Airpods are one of Apple’s most successful
accessories ever and key to voice strategy
Pipeline: High-end Airpods and studio-quality
over-ear headphones
More at https://voicebot.ai/2018/06/26/apple-is-planning-new-homepod-and-airpods-for-2019-bloomberg/
https://voicebot.ai/2018/06/04/what-you-didnt-hear-from-apple-wwdc-about-siri-voice-or-ai/

Others are priced for mass-market adoption
$49$49$350
Amazon Echo Dot Google Home MiniApple Homepod

Nobody undercuts Xiaomi
$49$49 $25
Amazon Echo Dot Google Home Mini Mi AI Mini

Amazon was first to market
and still racing
Launched 70+ Alexa-enabled devices in
September including entirely new device
categories like Alexa Guard for home security
and Echo Auto
Second-generation Echo Show has eight far-field
microphones to Apple Homepod’s six
Expanding from software APIs for speech
recognition and NLP to new hardware chipsets
with Amazon Connect
More at https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/20/17883242/amazon-alexa-event-2018-news-recap-echo-auto-dot-sub-link-auto-microwave
Chart from https://www.kleinerperkins.com/perspectives/internet-trends-report-2018

Google AI is best positioned
to challenge Alexa
Duplex demo stole the show at Google I/O in May
Google Home now interfaces with 5,000+ devices
Google Assistant’s capabilities are available for
developers via Dialogflow and new Contact Center
AI in alpha
Leaks from the new Google Pixel 3 show an
Always-On setting for Google Lens and Assistant-
connected ear buds
More at https://www.recode.net/2018/6/27/17508166/google-duplex-assistant-demo-voice-calling-ai
https://9to5google.com/2018/08/23/pixel-3-xl-leak-first-look-google-camera-lens-assistant/

How does Facebook fit in this ecosystem?
M has been downgraded from a virtual
assistant to a suggestion engine
Wit.ai powering Messenger chatbots, but
still not charging for it
Smart screen “Portal” launching soon, but
running on Amazon Alexa
Facebook’s own voice assistant “Aloha” still
in stealth development
https://cheddar.com/videos/facebooks-portal-video-chat-device-to-be-announced-next-week
https://techcrunch.com/2018/08/21/facebook-voice
https://voicebot.ai/2018/08/21/first-sighting-of-the-facebook-aloha-voice-assistant-appears-in-messenger-along-with-voice-messaging-in-instagram/

Thank you!
Andrew Schorr
Founder @ Grata.co
andrew_schorr
Grata is a live-chat platform
for the messaging era
www.grata.co
grata_co
grata_co
andrew@grata.co

Global Messaging Trends 2018

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (19)

Semelhante a Global Messaging Trends 2018

Semelhante a Global Messaging Trends 2018 (20)

Último

Último (20)

Global Messaging Trends 2018