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- 1. Accelerating Change, Our Digital Future, and the Values of Progress Amplify 11: Everything Connects 6-10 June 2011 Sydney, NSW, Australia John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies Foundation Slides: accelerating.org/slides
- 3. Accelerating Change Science and Technology Grow Faster and Smarter Every Year, Creating Both Disruption and Opportunity
- 9. Our Digital Future The Conversational Interface, the Cybertwin, and the Valuecosm - How the Web and Individuals Will Both Get Smarter Relative to Corporations and Governments in Coming Decades, and Why That Matters
- 10. © 2010 Accelerating.org The Future of the Web (2007) The Future of Internet TV (2010) John Smart, 2010 (48 pp) http://metaverseroadmap.org/index.html http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf Smart et. al., 2007 (98 pp)
- 13. Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon Open Internet TV Will Be The Killer App of Web 3.0 © 2010 Accelerating.org
- 17. First ‘Picturephone’ (AT&T 1970) ‘ Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006) ‘ Carpal PC’ concept (Metaverse Roadmap 2007) Flip Ultra (2007, $130) Top-selling camcorder. Necklace phone (Nokia 2004) iPhone (Apple 2007) Wearable Cellphones, Lifelogs, and AR
- 18. LED Screens, Half-Caves, and Game Tables: Telepresence, Gameification, & Serious Games © 2009 Accelerating.org Dexcom glucose monitor, 2010 Milo and Kate, Microsoft 2010 Half-Cave, 2010 DriveSharp, 2010
- 19. Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/Agent Interface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020? Ananova, 2000 “ Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality. Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal. © 2010 Accelerating.org
- 22. Your Cybertwin (Digital Self): Helping You Now, Helping Others Later Greg Panos and his Digital Mom PersonaFoundation.org Note the conflict between these two statements: “ I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “ I enjoy saving stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: ▪ When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.” ▪ When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Cybertwins, as our digital agents, will engage in successive approximation, gentle integration, subtle capturing and transition… of our selves. When we can shift our conscious perspective between our electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way. © 2010 Accelerating.org
- 26. The Values of Progress Where Do We Want the World to Go, As Leaders? Where Does the World Want Us to Go?
- 27. Evolutionary Values (Local, Bottom-Up) Competition /Independence/Personal Advancement Innovation /Creativity/Experimentation/Freedom Individuality /Diversity/Intuition/Subjective Truth Adapt ability Values (Mix) Positive Sumness / Morality/Democracy/Capitalism Resil iency /Immunity/Security Intell igence / Awareness/Learning/Adaptive Ability Developmental Values (Global, Top-Down) Cooperation /Dependence/Harmony Sustainability /Convergent Unification/Protection Universality /Generality/Rationality/Objective Truth The Values of Progress (and Profit) My Personal Take. What’s Yours? Smart, John. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? In: Cosmos & Culture, Dick and Lupisella (eds) NASA Press.
- 28. © 2011 Accelerating.org Competition, Positive Sumness, Intell igence : Value Investing for Profit
- 38. Australia and AMP: An Outsider’s Perspective on Key Values Competition Build more meritocracy , not just bureaucracy. Comp. Intell.: Scour the world for solutions. Innovation Be digital innovators . Grow network and node (indiv.) intelligence vs. pyramids (corps & govts). Individuality Choose your own way. Don’t follow America. Be unique and diverse , whenever it makes sense. Positive Sumness Resil iency Intell igence Cooperation Sustainability Universality See and use developmental stages. Example: Earning > Saving > Investing > Retiring > Philanthropy I leave you to fill these out for yourself!
- 39. Discussion What do you think?
Notas do Editor
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- CONSTRAINT: Some aspects of post-emergence and post-limit systems can’t be understood or guided by pre-singularity systems.
- We have a very limited, top-down controlled kind of Television today. True internet television, or iTV , via Google, Boxee, and competitors is coming to us this year, a full 12 years after Microsoft’s Web TV tried to pioneer this space. Fortunately in just a few years we will have Millions of Channels , Social Viewing, Collaborative Filtering, Realtime Chat, and many other features. The first gen, keyboard-based interface on today's iTVs suck (see Logitech Revue 2010). People don’t want to type first, they want to tap first, and talk, and type as needed. Here's a worthy project: Someone needs to hack GoogleTV 2010 to use an iPad as the remote. We also need Google Voice App as an alternate interface. Open Video Markup Standards will be needed for iTV, because to bring bottom-up intelligence and democracy to our TV platform we need to able to make micropayments, do subscriptions, and make money on per-click ads, and we need to be able to ban ads and ad types that we don’t want. Once 100 Mbps bandwidth arrives at home, millions of lean and independent new media channels can make money through iTV. If people start leaving Network and Cable TV for iTV, old media will have to adopt open video markup standards, and consumer choice, or they will die. For the next five to ten years we will have the same bandwidth problem with iTV that we have with VideoPhones, so we need creative solutions, like those I described for videophones There’s more we could say about iTV. Check out my 50-page whitepaper , How the Television Will be Revolutionized , 2010, for more.
- How do we make our immersive space more intelligent? One key will be the Conversational Interface, or CI, a natural language processing platform that increasingly understands the semantic meaning of our words and text. See my online Conversational Interface article, 2003, and Peter Norvig's Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data , 2010, for more on this. The bottom line is that we are going to have computers that crudely understand our semantic intent, both written and spoken, in the next five to ten years, and this is going to be one of the biggest changes in the web that any of us will live to see. The first semi-viable CI game, Kate & Milo , launches on the Xbox Kinetc this Dec. When CI’s have been around for a few years we can expect AR memeshows , or auto-generated displays of related concepts, statistics, links, pictures, and video, to visually accompany many of our workplace and creative conversations. CI's will also allow the emergence of Cybertwins , or language using avatars, which nod when they understand us and make other gestures when they don’t. CI-using Cybertwins will be able to map our interests and values, to better serve us, and this will allow the emergence of a Valuecosm , or values maps of all the actors in our digital world. These maps will allow incredible new forms of positive sum collaboration, and new diversity in social subcultures. How early will we let kids have cybertwins? Will you talk to your cybermom instead of a going to tombstone to grieve when your biological mom dies? Will you allow software companies like Google to make your cybermom smarter every year, even after your biological mom dies? The lawyers will be busy. We are just beginning to ask these questions .
- We need to get cellphones more wearable, on our wrists, belts, necks, or elsewhere, so they can become first-gen AR systems . The Wrist Phone (pic) is my favorite, as it can delivers continuous AR on the back of the hand today. A slap bracelet design, with two flat screens, a third screen that folds out, and three flat batteries, would be excellent. These phones also need lithium titanate or lithium phospate nanobatteries , which charge 60% in 60 seconds, 5 to 10 times faster than regular batteries. A123 and Toshiba already make and sell these batteries for other uses. Vacaville CA has a Fast Charging Station that will charge a Nissan Leaf automobile up to 60% of battery capacity in just 10 minutes, coffee break time. We need fast chargers in Starbucks that will charge our cellphone and laptop nanobatteries 60% in 60 seconds, for three bucks. This is doable today. We also need to make it legal to use smart AR phones, with voice and steering wheel controls, when we take them off our wrists or belts and place them on our dashboards, in the Hood Occlusion Zone. That makes them just another display. When we are ready for second gen AR , we can go to audio with a bluetooth earpiece, and video with a half-silvered mirror on our sunglasses. Finally, when Microvision’s primary patents expire in 10 years, we can go to microlasers which paint virtual images on our retinas, which is the best video AR platform I’ve seen yet.
- Once we have iTV and multiple tablets in the home, that platform will compete with our existing gaming consoles. They will evolve as a result. With multiple tablets, people can display private info and specialized hand controls and accelerometers on the tablets, allowing new generations of games in addition to speech and our existing console devices and sensors. How soon can our living rooms get Third-Cave , two screen, 120 degree, and Half-Cave , three screen, 180 degree, displays? Manufacturers need to deliver two- and three-screen projection systems for under $1,000, and LCDs for more. At the same time, we need to make two and three screen setups efficient and viral for leading VW communities, such as the 12 million WoW and 6 million The Sims players we have today. The left screen can be for personal info/stats, the right one for others/community info, and the center one for the game. Add a large, horizontal multitouch flatscreen that can be placed on a coffeetable or kitchen table, and you’ve got a Game Table . You can also place and register physical objects on the multitouch surface. This is the game and strategy board that all our table-centric games are waiting for. From Checkers to Civilization, you’ve totally changed the level of immersion with this platform. Now add Kinetc-grade motion sensors on the monitors and a 10 x 10 rollaway pressure mat for the floor, and you’ve created a Game Space , for everything from Kid’s Educational games to Exergames to whatever. This kind of Game Space is the most addictive and immersive gaming, learning, productivity, and entertainment platform I can foresee arriving in the near term. With the right partners and strategy, I think it could be built and made commercially successful as early as the next three to five years. Any takers?
- When we think of the future of work and collaboration, having Valuecosm maps of all of us will lead to major new Positive Sum Collaborations . It will be easier than ever to find others who share our values, and form subcultures with them. There’s at least one more major collaborative development that we can imagine. The most important kind of immersion is being connected to other human beings, and there will be people, particularly kids, who will experiment with 24/7 immersion. Symbiont Networks are groups of people, who share each other’s lifestreams, and have the ability to unobtrusively communicate, via AR text, audio, and video, with others in their symbiont. If such groups don’t grow beyond our Dunbar Number, the 150 people we can deeply model as friends and associates, and if they stress cognitive diversity and collaboration management, and have reputation systems, so that everyone who asks services from the group has to contribute services in return, and gets these rated on their usefulness, then symbionts will very rapidly outperform unconnected individuals. I could say a lot more about how we will use these systems for productivity and self-improvement, as well as their hazards, but for more on this, I recommend my online article, Human Performance Enhancement in 2035 .
- This leads us to our last slide, helping people become better decisionmakers and and self-actualizers. The book Streetlights and Shadows , by Gary Klein, studies how people make decisions under stress and uncertainty. Klein found that to be good decisionmakers people need to gain personal experience making tough decisions . Where they gained that experience didn’t matter. What mattered was the prior experience. People need to experience moral tests and moral dilemmas, and through such dilemmas, they learn for themselves when it is best to follow rules , and when it is best to break them. Good decisionmakers can confidently engage in both behaviors, and vibrant, innovative societies benefit from, and even encourage, occasional rule breakers. For me, global development of human Self-Actualization, Self-Control, and Self-Awareness are the final frontier for the human species. Here at the start of the 21 st century, we semi-technological human beings are slowly learning how to squirt our own dopamine, for all the things we care about. Consider how meditation measurably thickens our corpus callosum, integrating our brain . Cognitive behavioral therapy , social interaction , and other forms of learning , decisionmaking , and self-actualization also have measurable beneficial effects, including modulating our stress hormones, and increasing our resiliency and performance. Self-actualization in general , or being internally controlled as well as reactive to your environment, is where we are headed as individuals and as a species . We need immersive learning games that will measure and incentivize these things, and help us to maximize them.
- Problem: Globalization, Tech Accel. Increasing Rich-Poor Divides (Zero or Negative Sum). Corporations are now larger than govts (1950 vs. today), less accountable. Solution: Trust busting, Redistribution, Tax Rate Rationalization. Corporate transparency. Global national cooperation. Purchase products from countries (Scandinavia, Germany) where this isn’t true. America had a 90% marginal income tax above $4 million a year in Eisenhower’s era. We’ll put it back. Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, etc.) still have this kind of progressive tax structure.
- Problem: Wired & Wireless Broadband. Lack of Competition in Telcomm Industry (Oligopoly, Monopoly (Telstra) Solution: Buy Google TV, Ditch your Cable. Go Satellite. Emulate broadband leader nation’s structures. S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Scandinavia. Urban broadband first, rural second. Urban dev will catalyze suburban & rural dev in this case.
- Problem: Lack of Innovation in Auto Industry on Electric Cars Solution: Buy a Prius. Optional: Mod it, or Buy an Independent Electric. The 3-5% solution. 13 mile Plug in HEV – Totally underpowered, three years late. Not the engineers fault. Engineers can do anything (Apollo Shot). It’s the executives that are risk-averse, counterinnovative, and short-term oriented. Big Companies are Counterinnovative (Innovator’s Dilemma).
- Problem: Lack of Individual Development in Education. No civics. Not enough personal experimentation. Montessori/Waldorf/Steiner style. Kids will change their jobs 8 times over their careers. Four will be forced changes due to tech disruption. Jobs of the Future: Tele-everything, incl. Telemassage (w/ massage chairs), Lifelog curator, iTV channel producer, cybertwin upgrader, transparency auditor, … Solution: The Finland Phenomenon. (Details)
- Problem: Globalization, Tech Accel. Increasing Rich-Poor Divides (Zero or Negative Sum). Corporations are now larger than govts (1950 vs. today), less accountable. Solution: Trust busting, Redistribution, Tax Rate Rationalization. Corporate transparency. Global national cooperation. Purchase products from countries (Scandinavia, Germany) where this isn’t true. America had a 90% marginal income tax above $4 million a year in Eisenhower’s era. We’ll put it back. Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, etc.) still have this kind of progressive tax structure.
- Problem: How do we learn faster from catastrophe? GFC? 9/11? Global Warming? Philippine’s Mt. Pinatubo eruption (1991) cooled the planet about half a degree centigrade for three years afterward. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011) eruptions probably produced more cooling than all govt efforts combined in those years (David Evans, former Australian govt. climate scientist, 1999-2006). I Was On the Global Warming Gravy Train, David Evans, 2007. There are efficiency and tech solutions, vs. more govt. regulation and taxes. Surgeons love to cut. Govts love to grow.
- Problem: Lack of Sufficient Individual Intelligence/Control/Self-Awareness vs. Global/Top-Down Control (Govts, Corporations). Learned Helplessness Solution: Learned Optimism, Digital Activism. Push for anything that maximizes Individual Intelligence, Incentivizes Self-Reliance Facebook, Smartphones, Wikis, Avaaz.org
- Problem: Insufficient Localism (Local Cooperation) in aggressive globalization. Insufficient community development. Bowling Alone (loss of community). Solution: Dump your cable! Use Netflix, Amazon, YouTube, Google TV. Build local communities on Facebook, Wikis, Blogs, Meetups, Foursquare, Twitter, etc. Ex: Food Industry (Duopoly, Coles & Woolworths). Solution: Local Food Movement, Local Bartering, Local Currencies (Marin Community Foods Market). Australia has a fine for not voting every four years. Rational: Improves voter participation, but it is enforced (fake) participation. People go through the motions. You don’t get to see how disengaged people are. Force, and taxation, is the easy solution. How about donating $100 to your favorite nonprofit instead of a fine? That money shouldn’t go to govt. Much better would be convenient e-voting, combined with Germany’s voting system . Subsidized political media, no paid political ads. People’s conversations are more important than corporate dollars. US has lost this with Citizens United (protected corporate political speak). Make voting convenient, and online, and you’ll see much more of it.
- Problem: Lack of Growth in Alternative (Sustainable) Energy, Energy Efficiency is 90% of the near term solutions (JS Tweets reference) but it isn’t being incentivized. Solution: German Solar Power (leasing community land). Australia too? Solution: Everyone gets incentives for planting and keeping alive two trees a year. UN’s Plant for the Planet program. Solution: Offshore Wind. 20% of Energy in Denmark. Australia too? Solution: Most sustainable energy advances over next decade will be efficiency advances. Govt, Corps and Consumers should seek out, adopt, recommend and incentivize these.
- Problem: Not enough focus on STEM Education, Technical Capacity & Technical Productivity. Solution: Increase study, understanding, debate on Universal Values (Inglehart’s Values Map, Singularity).
- Competition. Use competitive intelligence . Look to the whole world for solutions. Have a global perspective. Individuality. Choose its Own Way (Don’t Follow America) – Maximize uniqueness and diversity , wherever it makes sense. Intelligence. Be digital activists. Maximize both network and individual intelligence, over the pyramid/hierarchy (corps & govts) I’ll leave you to fill out the other values for yourself!