Predictive modeling and machine learning has been widely successful: such models can suggest movies, songs or games to try out, identify people to target ads for, predict customer churn, detect fraud, identify health risks and so on. However, predictive models are not well-equipped to answer questions about cause and effect, which form the logical next step of action after establishing correlational models: what should one do next to improve key metrics or goals? For example, what is the effect of a recommender algorithm? if a product recommendation system is changed or removed, what will be the effect on people's purchases? If having more friends is correlated with higher activity on a social network, would encouraging users to add more friends increase their activity?
This tutorial won't give all the answers, but will provide a principled way to reason about causal effects and estimate them. In the first half of the tutorial, I will present an overview of counterfactual reasoning and common methods for causal inference. The second half is hands-on: a practical example of estimating the causal impact of a recommender system, starting from simple methods to more complex methods, with the side-goal of appreciating and learning from common pitfalls in causal inference. Code and resources for the tutorial available at: https://github.com/amit-sharma/causal-inference-tutorial/
Amit Sharma
should we focus on encouraging Xbox users to add more friends? In the first half of the tutorial, I will present an overview of counterfactual reasoning and common methods for causal inference. In the second half, participants will work through a practical example of estimating the causal impact of a recommender system, starting from simple methods to more complex methods, with the side-goal of appreciating and learning from common pitfalls in causal inference.