SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 4
Baixar para ler offline
HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM
breaking through the floor, from below
Lost amid the consternation surrounding record equity valuations and the focus on the amount of
developed market debt trading with negative yields was a milestone in the corporate loan universe. For
the first time since May 2009, 3-Month LIBOR, the benchmark rate for floating rate corporate loans, is
above 75 bps. Regardless of whether this historic move represents a temporary shift or a lasting trend,
there are a number of both near- and long-term effects of this rate level on the loan market, from
changes to deal structures to potential benefits to investors in leveraged loans.
Central bank intervention in the post-crisis era forced benchmark yields across the globe to the zero
bound; in response, many corporate loans incorporated a structural enhancement of a LIBOR floor to
entice buyers. As global monetary policy morphed into the now familiar “lower for longer” mantra, this
structural enhancement became a common feature and now a full 91% of the leveraged loan index has a
LIBOR Floor.
As the adjacent table
demonstrates, a full 30% of the
bank loan index may reflect its
floating-rate origins. A move in 3-
Month LIBOR above 100 bps, or
20 bps above today’s level, will
make that number nearly 94%.
structural inefficiencies in one market may benefit
investors in another
LIBOR rates reflect a myriad of factors, not the least of which is the influence of short-term rates by
central bank targets. While the Fed is running out of excuses for delaying a rate hike, the culprit for the
recent move higher in LIBOR rates does not appear to be the expectation a hike is imminent, as Fed Fund
Futures are implying only a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end 2016. Instead, the catalyst of the move
LIBOR Floor Level Index Market Value (%)
No Floor 9%
75 bps 21%
100 bps 64%
125 bps 5%
August 2016
By Trey Parker, Head of Credit
& Allan Smallwood, CFA, Credit Product Strategist
Past Is Prologue: Revisiting
the Use of Corporate Loans
to Manage Rate Sensitivity
Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index as of 7/31/2016
Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
2
HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM
higher is most likely the impending reform of money market funds, specifically institutional prime funds,
which will be required to float their NAVs beginning October 14th
. These funds are a big source of demand
for bank issued commercial paper and certificates of deposit. In anticipation of the impending change,
investors have been pulling money from these funds at a furious pace in favor of government funds. This
migration is triggering a spike in the cost of borrowing for financial firms, which in turn will be transmitted
to the corporate loan market in the form of higher borrowing costs for issuers. Should the trend persist,
loan investors stand to benefit from higher coupon payments due to the floating rate features of their
securities—an attractive feature in the current yield starved world.
risk-free rates are anything but
The end of the bond super-cycle has been rumored for some time. With the yield on the 10-year Treasury
still firmly entrenched below the yield on the S&P 500 and within 15 bps of its cycle low of 1.36%, long-
term prospects for fixed income returns are paltry. Though rates here in the U.S. are still upward sloping
and offer a premium to other sovereign issuers, any further compression of the curve only serves to
front-load returns for long-term investors. This reality lies at the heart of the recent warnings by notable
members of the bond market “monarchy” that bond valuations are unattractive.
Stepping back to assess the risk-adjusted returns of high quality bonds, we must ask what has to occur in
order to sustain the current rate regime. The answer is that we must believe the following:
1. Monetary policy makers will continue to believe in the efficacy of quantitative
easing to battle deflationary trends and anemic global growth
0
25
50
75
100
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
3MLIBOR(BPS)
PRIMEFUNDAUM($BN)
Prime Fund AUM v. 3M LIBOR
Source: Bloomberg as of 8/9/2016
Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
3
HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM
2. Fiscal policy makers will either remain impotent and unwilling to utilize additional
deficit spending to stimulate nominal GDP, or their late attempts will fall short
3. Any subsequent inflation from current or future policy changes can be contained
4. Investors will maintain their faith in each of these aforementioned assumptions
With all of this in mind, asset allocators everywhere should revisit their strategies for insulating portfolios
from rate sensitivity. The critical problem with reducing rate sensitivity is that it typically comes at the
expense of accepting assets with higher volatility and more equity sensitivity. Bank loans, with their senior
position in the capital structure and floating base rate coupon mechanisms, are worth considering as a
means of reducing rate sensitivity while maintaining portfolio yields, without accepting too much
additional volatility in return.
the middle child of corporate credit markets
The corporate credit markets resemble siblings in the way they evoke the stereotypes of birth order.
Investment grade corporates, like stereotypical first children, are reliable, conscientious, and cautious.
High yield corporates, like the youngest child, are fun-loving attention seekers with a bit of self-
centeredness that stems from over-indulgent parents. Corporate loans then are like the middle child:
while somewhat rebellious, they thrive on their role of creating stability across the family and avoid
standing out too far in either direction. As a result, they are, as the stereotype of middle children goes,
often overlooked. Evidence of this oversight is apparent when comparing the valuation and risk profiles
across asset classes.
Cross Asset Comparison | Post Crisis (2010 – Present)
P/E (LTM) Percentile Volatility
S&P 500 20.5x 100% 16%
DURATION PERCENTILE SPREAD PERCENTILE YIELD PERCENTILE VOLATILITY
U.S. AGGREGATE 6.04 yrs 100% 2.41% 73% 2.87%
U.S. HIGH GRADE 7.30 yrs 87% 181 bps 35% 3.52% 93% 3.95%
U.S. HIGH YIELD 4.24 yrs 93% 681 bps 22% 7.91% 25% 6.24%
U.S. CORPORATE LOANS 527 bps 52% 6.30% 45% 3.31%
EUR HIGH YIELD 3.79 yrs 532 bps 62% 5.50% 84% 6.74%
EM DEBT (SOV) 8.05 yrs 88% 355 bps 37% 5.20% 86% 7.41%
EM DEBT (CORP) 4.81 yrs 19% 331 bps 64% 4.65% 89% 5.29%
Sources: J.P. Morgan U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; J.P. Morgan U.S. Corp Index; J.P. Morgan U.S. Domestic High Yield Index; J.P. Morgan
leveraged Loan Index; Bloomberg; volatility values as of 7/31/2016, annualized; all other values as of 8/9/2016
Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
4
HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM
As noted in the table above, corporate loans offer nearly the same level of spread and yield
compensation as their high yield counterparts, despite exhibiting nearly half the historical volatility.
Meanwhile, investment grade corporates look especially unattractive in comparison, due to both
historically low yields and historically high interest rate sensitivity, as measured by duration.
conclusion
Whether the Fed’s attempt to pursue a modicum of policy normalization is well-timed or not remains to
be seen. But what is certain is that the prospective returns for securities whose primary risk premia is
duration are asymmetrically distributed around today’s yield levels. With this in mind, investors will need
to be more vigilant in managing the interest-rate and credit-spread sensitivities of their portfolios in a
manner that allows for maintaining market rate current income without suffering potential principal
losses. An actively managed portfolio of corporate loans, with adjusting coupons and attractive spread
compensation, is a good tool to have at the ready. Further, corporate loans typically enjoy a senior
position in the capital structure due to their secured claims on the assets of the firm. This seniority may
provide additional protection in the event the policy makers were to “flop”.
The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and are subject to change at any time. This
material is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or engage in any particular
investment strategy and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. There is no guarantee that
any of the forecasts will come to pass. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
ID#12484
Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketRules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketMarqus J Freeman
 
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSPotential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSGE 94
 
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...Mercer Capital
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18Patrick Thuemmel
 
Elementsof Investing.Ameriprise
Elementsof Investing.AmeripriseElementsof Investing.Ameriprise
Elementsof Investing.Ameriprisegenogates
 
FT Article Reprint
FT Article ReprintFT Article Reprint
FT Article ReprintDex McLuskey
 
Measuring the market
Measuring the marketMeasuring the market
Measuring the marketSocial MEDIA
 
Western reserve q1 2009 client update letter
Western reserve  q1 2009 client update letterWestern reserve  q1 2009 client update letter
Western reserve q1 2009 client update letterMichael Durante
 
FRT and Retail Industry
FRT and Retail IndustryFRT and Retail Industry
FRT and Retail IndustryTom Tsee
 
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Investments
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve  research compilationMichael Durante Western Reserve  research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilationMichael Durante
 
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Investments
 
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014Putnam Investments
 
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Investments
 
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_Slides
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_SlidesPursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_Slides
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_SlidesEddy Mejlholm
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016Jim Tyson
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesPursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesRobUgiansky
 

Mais procurados (19)

Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile MarketRules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
Rules of Thumb for a Volatile Market
 
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPSPotential for vulnerability in MLPS
Potential for vulnerability in MLPS
 
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q3 2014 | Focus: Alte...
 
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
NWAM investment outlook 12-31-18
 
Q4 2013 Newsletter
Q4 2013 NewsletterQ4 2013 Newsletter
Q4 2013 Newsletter
 
Elementsof Investing.Ameriprise
Elementsof Investing.AmeripriseElementsof Investing.Ameriprise
Elementsof Investing.Ameriprise
 
FT Article Reprint
FT Article ReprintFT Article Reprint
FT Article Reprint
 
Measuring the market
Measuring the marketMeasuring the market
Measuring the market
 
Western reserve q1 2009 client update letter
Western reserve  q1 2009 client update letterWestern reserve  q1 2009 client update letter
Western reserve q1 2009 client update letter
 
FRT and Retail Industry
FRT and Retail IndustryFRT and Retail Industry
FRT and Retail Industry
 
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Capital Market Outlook Q1 2014
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve  research compilationMichael Durante Western Reserve  research compilation
Michael Durante Western Reserve research compilation
 
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed Income Outlook Q1 2014
 
Dimensional otf rate expectations
Dimensional otf rate expectationsDimensional otf rate expectations
Dimensional otf rate expectations
 
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014
Putnam Perspectives: Fixed-Income Outlook Q3 2014
 
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
Putnam Fixed Income Outlook q313
 
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_Slides
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_SlidesPursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_Slides
Pursuing_a_Better_Investment_Experience_Slides
 
The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016The Advisory_March2016
The Advisory_March2016
 
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital AssociatesPursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
Pursuing a Better Investment Experience with Capital Associates
 

Destaque

Ted open mic 2016
Ted open mic 2016Ted open mic 2016
Ted open mic 2016mwu100
 
Presentación gastronomia francesa
Presentación gastronomia francesaPresentación gastronomia francesa
Presentación gastronomia francesapolet mendez
 
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016Fresheye
 
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBS
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBSImages for the Clouds with KIWI & OBS
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBSAnke Börnig
 
Presentatie visual media contentmarketing
Presentatie visual media   contentmarketingPresentatie visual media   contentmarketing
Presentatie visual media contentmarketingMinke Heidema
 
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRY
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRYORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRY
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRYSaurabh Badole
 

Destaque (7)

Ted open mic 2016
Ted open mic 2016Ted open mic 2016
Ted open mic 2016
 
Migraciones
MigracionesMigraciones
Migraciones
 
Presentación gastronomia francesa
Presentación gastronomia francesaPresentación gastronomia francesa
Presentación gastronomia francesa
 
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016
UKDSC Narrated Slideshow 2016
 
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBS
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBSImages for the Clouds with KIWI & OBS
Images for the Clouds with KIWI & OBS
 
Presentatie visual media contentmarketing
Presentatie visual media   contentmarketingPresentatie visual media   contentmarketing
Presentatie visual media contentmarketing
 
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRY
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRYORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRY
ORAL HYPOGLYCEMIC AGENTS MEDICINAL CHEMISTRY
 

Semelhante a Corporate Loans to Manage Rate Sensitivity_-_White_Paper

Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...Mercer Capital
 
Structured Finance Case Study
Structured Finance Case StudyStructured Finance Case Study
Structured Finance Case StudyLiang Chieh Wang
 
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALBMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALAdam Phillips
 
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueQ1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueFrank Ragol
 
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdf
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdfTime-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdf
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdfssuser6a5cbe
 
Reap What You Sow
Reap What You SowReap What You Sow
Reap What You SowBen Funk
 
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011RobertWBaird
 
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...Mercer Capital
 
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...JLL
 
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAlexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAdam Phillips
 
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager ViewpointsInvestor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpointsadvisorshares
 
El rady-intro-summary
El rady-intro-summaryEl rady-intro-summary
El rady-intro-summaryBMLP
 
Market Perspectives - April 2019
Market Perspectives - April 2019Market Perspectives - April 2019
Market Perspectives - April 2019Mark Biegel
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 2011 outlook primer- final
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners   2011 outlook primer- finalMichael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners   2011 outlook primer- final
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 2011 outlook primer- finalMichael Durante
 
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...NN Investment Partners
 
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...NN Investment Partners
 
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...NN Investment Partners
 
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...NN Investment Partners
 

Semelhante a Corporate Loans to Manage Rate Sensitivity_-_White_Paper (20)

Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q1 2015 | Focus: Mutu...
 
Structured Finance Case Study
Structured Finance Case StudyStructured Finance Case Study
Structured Finance Case Study
 
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINALBMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
BMO-TCH-Mid-Q3-Update_FINAL
 
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenueQ1 2016-credit third avenue
Q1 2016-credit third avenue
 
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdf
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdfTime-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdf
Time-to-be-Cautious-Mar_22.pdf
 
BetterIR_July_2013
BetterIR_July_2013BetterIR_July_2013
BetterIR_July_2013
 
Reap What You Sow
Reap What You SowReap What You Sow
Reap What You Sow
 
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011
Investing in a Rising Rate Environment - Dec. 2011
 
Minico Gr 3
Minico  Gr 3Minico  Gr 3
Minico Gr 3
 
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...
Mercer Capital's Asset Management Industry Newsletter | Q2 2015 | Focus: Trad...
 
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...
Debt and equity availability update: The guide to financing in commercial rea...
 
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed IncomeAlexa, Invest in Fixed Income
Alexa, Invest in Fixed Income
 
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager ViewpointsInvestor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
Investor Compass - Portfolio Manager Viewpoints
 
El rady-intro-summary
El rady-intro-summaryEl rady-intro-summary
El rady-intro-summary
 
Market Perspectives - April 2019
Market Perspectives - April 2019Market Perspectives - April 2019
Market Perspectives - April 2019
 
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 2011 outlook primer- final
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners   2011 outlook primer- finalMichael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners   2011 outlook primer- final
Michael Durante Western Reserve Blackwall Partners 2011 outlook primer- final
 
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[CH] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
 
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...
[LU] Focuspoint / Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with ...
 
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[UK] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
 
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
[JP] Convertible bonds offer investors equity-like returns with a risk profil...
 

Corporate Loans to Manage Rate Sensitivity_-_White_Paper

  • 1. HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM breaking through the floor, from below Lost amid the consternation surrounding record equity valuations and the focus on the amount of developed market debt trading with negative yields was a milestone in the corporate loan universe. For the first time since May 2009, 3-Month LIBOR, the benchmark rate for floating rate corporate loans, is above 75 bps. Regardless of whether this historic move represents a temporary shift or a lasting trend, there are a number of both near- and long-term effects of this rate level on the loan market, from changes to deal structures to potential benefits to investors in leveraged loans. Central bank intervention in the post-crisis era forced benchmark yields across the globe to the zero bound; in response, many corporate loans incorporated a structural enhancement of a LIBOR floor to entice buyers. As global monetary policy morphed into the now familiar “lower for longer” mantra, this structural enhancement became a common feature and now a full 91% of the leveraged loan index has a LIBOR Floor. As the adjacent table demonstrates, a full 30% of the bank loan index may reflect its floating-rate origins. A move in 3- Month LIBOR above 100 bps, or 20 bps above today’s level, will make that number nearly 94%. structural inefficiencies in one market may benefit investors in another LIBOR rates reflect a myriad of factors, not the least of which is the influence of short-term rates by central bank targets. While the Fed is running out of excuses for delaying a rate hike, the culprit for the recent move higher in LIBOR rates does not appear to be the expectation a hike is imminent, as Fed Fund Futures are implying only a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end 2016. Instead, the catalyst of the move LIBOR Floor Level Index Market Value (%) No Floor 9% 75 bps 21% 100 bps 64% 125 bps 5% August 2016 By Trey Parker, Head of Credit & Allan Smallwood, CFA, Credit Product Strategist Past Is Prologue: Revisiting the Use of Corporate Loans to Manage Rate Sensitivity Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index as of 7/31/2016 Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
  • 2. 2 HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM higher is most likely the impending reform of money market funds, specifically institutional prime funds, which will be required to float their NAVs beginning October 14th . These funds are a big source of demand for bank issued commercial paper and certificates of deposit. In anticipation of the impending change, investors have been pulling money from these funds at a furious pace in favor of government funds. This migration is triggering a spike in the cost of borrowing for financial firms, which in turn will be transmitted to the corporate loan market in the form of higher borrowing costs for issuers. Should the trend persist, loan investors stand to benefit from higher coupon payments due to the floating rate features of their securities—an attractive feature in the current yield starved world. risk-free rates are anything but The end of the bond super-cycle has been rumored for some time. With the yield on the 10-year Treasury still firmly entrenched below the yield on the S&P 500 and within 15 bps of its cycle low of 1.36%, long- term prospects for fixed income returns are paltry. Though rates here in the U.S. are still upward sloping and offer a premium to other sovereign issuers, any further compression of the curve only serves to front-load returns for long-term investors. This reality lies at the heart of the recent warnings by notable members of the bond market “monarchy” that bond valuations are unattractive. Stepping back to assess the risk-adjusted returns of high quality bonds, we must ask what has to occur in order to sustain the current rate regime. The answer is that we must believe the following: 1. Monetary policy makers will continue to believe in the efficacy of quantitative easing to battle deflationary trends and anemic global growth 0 25 50 75 100 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 3MLIBOR(BPS) PRIMEFUNDAUM($BN) Prime Fund AUM v. 3M LIBOR Source: Bloomberg as of 8/9/2016 Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
  • 3. 3 HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM 2. Fiscal policy makers will either remain impotent and unwilling to utilize additional deficit spending to stimulate nominal GDP, or their late attempts will fall short 3. Any subsequent inflation from current or future policy changes can be contained 4. Investors will maintain their faith in each of these aforementioned assumptions With all of this in mind, asset allocators everywhere should revisit their strategies for insulating portfolios from rate sensitivity. The critical problem with reducing rate sensitivity is that it typically comes at the expense of accepting assets with higher volatility and more equity sensitivity. Bank loans, with their senior position in the capital structure and floating base rate coupon mechanisms, are worth considering as a means of reducing rate sensitivity while maintaining portfolio yields, without accepting too much additional volatility in return. the middle child of corporate credit markets The corporate credit markets resemble siblings in the way they evoke the stereotypes of birth order. Investment grade corporates, like stereotypical first children, are reliable, conscientious, and cautious. High yield corporates, like the youngest child, are fun-loving attention seekers with a bit of self- centeredness that stems from over-indulgent parents. Corporate loans then are like the middle child: while somewhat rebellious, they thrive on their role of creating stability across the family and avoid standing out too far in either direction. As a result, they are, as the stereotype of middle children goes, often overlooked. Evidence of this oversight is apparent when comparing the valuation and risk profiles across asset classes. Cross Asset Comparison | Post Crisis (2010 – Present) P/E (LTM) Percentile Volatility S&P 500 20.5x 100% 16% DURATION PERCENTILE SPREAD PERCENTILE YIELD PERCENTILE VOLATILITY U.S. AGGREGATE 6.04 yrs 100% 2.41% 73% 2.87% U.S. HIGH GRADE 7.30 yrs 87% 181 bps 35% 3.52% 93% 3.95% U.S. HIGH YIELD 4.24 yrs 93% 681 bps 22% 7.91% 25% 6.24% U.S. CORPORATE LOANS 527 bps 52% 6.30% 45% 3.31% EUR HIGH YIELD 3.79 yrs 532 bps 62% 5.50% 84% 6.74% EM DEBT (SOV) 8.05 yrs 88% 355 bps 37% 5.20% 86% 7.41% EM DEBT (CORP) 4.81 yrs 19% 331 bps 64% 4.65% 89% 5.29% Sources: J.P. Morgan U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; J.P. Morgan U.S. Corp Index; J.P. Morgan U.S. Domestic High Yield Index; J.P. Morgan leveraged Loan Index; Bloomberg; volatility values as of 7/31/2016, annualized; all other values as of 8/9/2016 Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17
  • 4. 4 HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. | WWW.HIGHLANDCAPITAL.COM As noted in the table above, corporate loans offer nearly the same level of spread and yield compensation as their high yield counterparts, despite exhibiting nearly half the historical volatility. Meanwhile, investment grade corporates look especially unattractive in comparison, due to both historically low yields and historically high interest rate sensitivity, as measured by duration. conclusion Whether the Fed’s attempt to pursue a modicum of policy normalization is well-timed or not remains to be seen. But what is certain is that the prospective returns for securities whose primary risk premia is duration are asymmetrically distributed around today’s yield levels. With this in mind, investors will need to be more vigilant in managing the interest-rate and credit-spread sensitivities of their portfolios in a manner that allows for maintaining market rate current income without suffering potential principal losses. An actively managed portfolio of corporate loans, with adjusting coupons and attractive spread compensation, is a good tool to have at the ready. Further, corporate loans typically enjoy a senior position in the capital structure due to their secured claims on the assets of the firm. This seniority may provide additional protection in the event the policy makers were to “flop”. The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and are subject to change at any time. This material is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or engage in any particular investment strategy and should not be considered specific legal, investment or tax advice. There is no guarantee that any of the forecasts will come to pass. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. ID#12484 Downloaded from www.hvst.com by Allan Smallwood, CFA (id:25197) on 2016/08/17