Thesis defense presenting results from social science research project examining community knowledge and perspectives related to coupled human and natural systems or social-ecological systems dynamics in St. Thomas, USVI.
Cyclone Case Study Odisha 1999 Super Cyclone in India.
Community perspectives on sustainability and resilience within a social ecological paradigm in st. thomas, usvi
1. A Master’s Thesis Defense Presentation
By
Wm. Alex Webb
Advisor: Dr. Kostas Alexandridis
Committee Members: Prof. Tetsu Sato
and Dr. Tyler Smith
2. Presentation Overview
• Rationale & Key Theoretical Concepts
• Objectives and Questions
• Field Methodologies
• Methods of Analysis
• Results
• Discussion and Management Implications
3. Rationale
• Equilibrium based ‘Command and
Control’ approach (Holling and Meefe,
1996)
• Failure of single academic discipline
solutions (MSY, Market Regulation,
etc.)
• The social processes that impact
sustainability and resilience are not
well understood (Olsson, 2003)
5. Social-Ecological Systems (SES)
• SES theory stresses that “the
delineation between social and natural
systems is artificial and arbitrary.” (Folke,
2005)
• Act as complex adaptive systems
(Sawyer, 2005) with complex feedbacks
between social, economic, cultural and
environmental systems (Hammer, 2003;
Lambin and Meyfroidt, 2010) NSF, 2013
6. What is Sustainability Then?
• Scientific definition: “...meets the
needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their needs.”
(World Commission on Environment and
Development, 1987)
• Sustainability is a latent variable
and is value laden, complex,
dynamic and contains a certain
degree of ambiguity (Loorbach,
Frantzeskaki et al, 2011; Becker and
Research, 1997)
7. Resilience
• Within Social-ecological paradigm,
resilience refers to systems ability
to adapt, absorb, mitigate or
defend against change or surprise
(Berkes, 2003)
• Resilience is promoted by
nurturing diversity, variability, and
functional redundancy (Walker,
Anderies et al, 2006)
8. Additional Key Concepts
• Legacies and Path Dependence in Complex Adaptive Systems (Chapin et al,
2009)
• The Role of Culture (Harrison and Huntington, 2001)
• Polycentrism (Ostrom, 2003)
• Bottom-Up Approach to NRM (Ostrom, 2007)
10. Broad Research Questions
• What are the perspectives of community groups regarding social-ecological
dynamics as they relate to sustainability and resilience in St. Thomas?
• Do separate groups exhibit distinct/or opposing perspectives?
• What is the role of the natural environment and conservation embedded within
their knowledge representations?
11. Project Objectives
• To test the efficacy of Participatory Scenario Planning as a method for
capturing social knowledge representations related to social-ecological
system dynamics
• To explore the effectiveness and accuracy of using Semantic Network
Analysis as a means of quantifying large bodies of qualitative text
• To examine similarities and differences in distinct community groups
knowledge representations of the processes that facilitate conditions
positively or negatively related to sustainability and resilience
13. Social-Ecological Framework
• Synthesis of likely Economic,
Cultural, Social and Environmental
Drivers within a Social-Ecological
System of Interactions (Adapted from
Larson and Alexandridis,2009)
1. Demographics
2. Institutional Arrangements
3. Economics
4. Environment and Resources
5. Infrastructure and Services
6. Well-Being
7. Cultural Properties
8. Perceptions of the
Environment & Conservation
• 8 Broad Categories
• Operationalize Social-Ecological
Systems Concept across
Groups
15. What is Scenario Planning?
• “Contemplating Your Future to
Better Understand Your Present”
(Hammond, 1998)
• Specifically designed to assess
uncertainty (Chermack, 2004) a
major component in SES
dynamics (Newman, 2005)
• Scenario Thinking vs. Scenario
Planning
16. Scenario Planning Exercises
Discuss shared
and personal
preparedness
for the future
scenario
Exercise #4
Describe
Sustainability
in St. Thomas
and Choose
tangible
indicator
Exercise #3
Assess and
rank Drivers
of that
Future
(Adapted
Q-Method)
Exercise #2
Choose a
future
Scenario and
Time Frame
(5, 10 or 15
years)
Exercise #1
17. Sampling
• Purposive (wilmot, 2005) and
Snowball (Atkinson and Flint, 2001)
Sampling Methodologies
• 5 distinct community groups (4-9
members per group; N=32)
• Evenly divided between genders
(15 male; 17 female)
Hospitality Social Group
MPA Team
Eco-outreach Group
DPnR
Farming Co-op Group
19. What are Semantic Networks?
• Complex network structures related to
semantically distinct language
• Graph theory characterized by Nodes
and Vertices (in this case, semantic
concepts and the Links Between
Them)
• Nodes have a centrality coefficient
20. Semantic Network Analysis
• Related to the
Spreading
Activation Theory
of long term
memory and
language(Collins and
Loftus, 1975)
• Semantic Equivalence
21. Common Properties of Semantic Networks
• Small World Patterns of Connectivity
Stanley Milgram, 1960
• Scale-Free Distribution
Follows the Pareto 80/20 Rule
Tested by a power-law goodness
of fit
‘Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon’
Tested through a statistically
significant clustering coefficient
24. Analysis Workflow
Audio Transcribed
Verbatim into
Natural Language
Text
Text Mined for
semantically relevant
words using Wordnet +
TF*IDF function
(Ramos, 2003)
Latent Semantic Indexing
using singular value
decomposition (Deerwester,
1989)
Graph
Theory/Social
Network
Analysis
Complex
Network
Structure
32. Exercise #1: Choosing a Scenario and Time Frame
• Pushed to the Limit within 5-10 year time
frame
• Chose most likely future
• Due in part to a legacy of ‘Money Matters’
development and the impacts of
globalization
33. Exercise #1: Choosing a Scenario and Time Frame
• “…It seems like there is this struggle between money matters.
Maybe in the past…what has driven things is this money matters
and that is what sort of got us pushed to the limit.” – MPA Team
Participant
• “…It comes back to money matters in the sense that that
investment, that initial investment from this construction company
when they were coming in and building a new development
weighs a lot on people who are in power right now. They want that
development to happen. They do not care about moving to long
term goals” – DPnR Participant
34. Exercise #2: Critical Drivers
Adapted Q-Method (N=176)
Statement Categorical Driver
“Government more involved in community action groups” Institutional Arrangements (58)
“When big money rules (i.e. tourism), usually community needs are
cast aside, and only a few benefit”
Economics (24)
“Strong monopoly of economic resources in the hands of a selected
few”
Economics (24)
“Attitudes need to change” Perceptions of the Environment and
Conservation (23)
“Education system improves giving children positive choices” Well-Being (29)
37. Exercise #2: Critical Drivers
Critical Positive Drivers
Community Decision Making
More and Better Education (community, individual, business)
Local Economy that Supports the Community
Improved Infrastructure
Economic Development Around Cultural History and Heritage Sites
Community Ownership (Increased Social Values)
Environmental Awareness
Environmentally Friendly Business Practices
38. Exercise #2: Critical Drivers
Critical Negative Drivers
Insufficient Government Leadership
Lack of comprehensive planning and vision for Island Development
Lack of enforcement/accountability at Institutional and Social levels
Economic Disparity
Poverty Dynamics
Poor Attitudes
40. Exercise #3: Defining Sustainability
• Shortest conversation on
average (approx. 15-20
minutes)
• Numerous statements but few
distinct concepts generated
(N=13)
41. Exercise #3: Defining Sustainability
• Farming Co-op was the only
group with cohesive definition of
sustainability
• However; easy for groups to
choose specific sustainability
indicator
42. Exercise #3: Sustainability
Tangible Indicators of Sustainability
MPA Team
Hospitality
Group
Social: less government corruption;
DPnR
Farming Co-op n/a
Eco-Outreach
Reduced Sedimentation; “See the Bottom of Benner Bay”
Reduced Sedimentation; Less Severe Plumes, etc.
Environmental: Energy Alternatives
Reduced energy cost and energy alternatives
43. Exercise #4: Preparedness for Future Scenario
• Groups generally did not feel very
prepared for the future
• Major factors:
• Cost of living
• Salary/job opportunities
• Graying culture
• Personal Vision
44. Exercise #4: Preparedness for Future Scenario
• “… It is like nobody cares, everyone feels they know, from young,
you go to high school, you never had good counselors, and you
never had good direction, nobody like gives a shit when you go to
the public high schools down there. A lot of kids leave the high
school, not really knowing what they want to do. Even if they know
what they want to do, they do not have a direction to go there.” –
Hospitality Social Group Participant
46. Universal Themes from Network
Clustering Coefficient p=0.0
• Sense of Place
Identity
Purpose
Planning
• Impacts of
Globalization:
Demographics
Economic
Disparity
47. Sense of Identity
• “…when it comes to the people of the community, the local community, to say
…what makes you a Virgin Islander, even that… question is a problem because
[diverse, outside] society’s want to determine what should be when it should be
about the people within this community. If you are born here…that is it you
know… that is it. Plain and simple.” – Eco-Outreach Participant
• Not only we will see the dilution of the available farm land, but the same thing is
happening to the local culture, the identity of the Virgin Islander. With the influx of
it being a melting pot, eventually we going to be talking to one or two of the last
few Virgin Islanders still speak the local twang and know the folklore of the island
because the influx of all these new technology, information, peoples is like a
diluting of our culture or way of life. – Rastafarian Farming Co-op Participant
49. Economic Disparity
• 20% of Residents
Live under the
Poverty Line
• Adjusted for Race:
Approx. 30% of Afro-
Caribbean Residents
live under the
poverty line
Source: U.S. Census, 2010
50. Economic Disparity
• “They [investors] want St. Thomas to hit rock bottom so they can monopolize,
drive up land costs, they want all the locals to sell and then this will be their profit
paradise with no locals. It reminds me of all those rent to own nice apartments,
AKA ‘future projects’ at the other end of the island that is taking away the locals
from town and from the main districts. To take them away from tourist places. I
think they want to filter out the tourists areas from as many locals as possible so
they can control the land” - Hospitality Social Group Participant
• “We need to stop the hotels from destroying and pumping all kind of things into
the sea. We just let them take back Botany Bay and lock it out to people of the
Virgin Islands. One of the most beautiful places you can go on this island.” –
Rastafarian Faming Co-op Participant
51. Overall Themes from Network
Clustering Coefficient p=0.0
• Natural Environment
linked to Economics
• Local Business
52. Local Business
• “You could talk about businesses but if you get outside investors and one thing
about outside investors I have noticed from my experience living on St. Thomas,
people that are not from here do not stay here. They stay here for five years the
most and they end up leaving. So unless you put the businesses in the hands of
the people that from here it is going to be the same thing happening…” – Hospitality
Social Group Participant
• “Local small businesses. Do I think more is going to close? Yes, if we do not find a
proactive way of finding more energy efficient ways or leaders do not become
better leaders to find sufficient ways for costs to drop ...small businesses are
going to go out of business.” – Eco-Outreach Participant
54. ‘Top 5’ Takeaways
• Despite the differences in livelihood and cultural backgrounds all the groups
shared the same perspective regarding the future of the island.
• People may need to feel hopeful about the future in order to plan for it.
• When discussing the future in more detail, the most dominant social-ecological
drivers included:
– Sense of place
– The incorporation of community values and culture into the decision making
process
– Increased accountability at both the social and institutional level
55. ‘Top 5’ Takeaways
• Management strategies should include specific place-based items when engaging
communities and solutions might be more effective if they are customized to the
community that is being addressed.
• In addition, conservation might be more effective if expressed using cultural and
place-based ideals as opposed to theoretical or academic ones.
56. Implications of Globalization
• Co-occurrence of high diversity and poverty may contribute to diminished sense
of civic identity (Collier, 2009)
• Residency time has been linked to place attachment and positively correlated with
community revitalization and organization efforts (Manzo and Perkins, 2006)
• There is evidence that proximity to country of origin can encourage immigrants to
maintain their traditional cultural values and norms as opposed to adopting those
of the country immigrated to (Schwartz et al, 2011)
57. Review of Methods Used
• This thesis provides evidence that the use of scenario planning fits comfortably
within the theoretical parameters created by social-ecological systems,
sustainability and resilience theory
• While still a nascent method, this research illustrates great promise in Semantic
Network Analysis as a method of quantifying and reducing large datasets of
qualitative data.
58. Acknowledgments
• Guinean Pig Classmates (Tyler, Liz, Zach and Angel)
• Chris Settar and Anne Marie Hoffman
• Participants
• Tyler Smith
• Tetsu Sato and RIHN
• Kostas ‘Papa Bear Big Dog’ Alexandridis
• My very, very patient Fiancé and financier
• Funding provided by:
• NSF VI-EPSCoR award no. 0814417
• Research Institute for Humanities and Nature (RIHN) International Research Project.
