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Paul Dorosh - Global Food Crises: Policies to Address Food Security Challenges in Developing Countries
1. Sudan
Country Strategy Support Program
Funded by: Hosted by:
The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global Crisis
Cross-Country Impact Analysis on Poverty and Food Security
Xinshen Diao, Paul Dorosh, and James Thurlow (IFPRI)
Sudan Strategy Support Program Conference
Khartoum, 10 October, 2022
The cross-country analysis is based on the 19 country case studies conducted by IFPRI with financial support from BMGF, FCDO, USAID
and funders of CGIAR’s Foresight and Metrics and National Policies and Strategies Initiatives.
2. Results: August 22, 2022
Overview
Phase 1: Impact analysis
• Use country models to assess the impacts of
global shocks on economies and populations
Phase 2: Policy response analysis
• Compare the effectiveness of broad policy
responses by governments and their
development partners
Phase 3: In-depth analysis with partners
• Tailor scenarios to policy and investment
options
Bangladesh Cambodia DRC Egypt Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Mali Malawi Myanmar
Niger Nigeria Nepal Philippines Rwanda Senegal Tanzania Uganda Zambia
19 countries completed in phase 1
3. Results: August 22, 2022
19%
-7%
113%
68%
44%
102%
106%
27%
5%
125%
50%
Maize Rice Wheat Palm oil Crude oil Natural gas Fertilizers
Change in nominal world prices
(June 2021 to April/July 2022)
Jun 2021 - Jan 2022
Jan 2022 - Apr 2022
Jun 2021 - Apr 2022
Jun 2021 - Jul 2022
Shocks, Impacts and Outcomes
Shocks accounted for in the analysis Determinants of impacts
Outcomes reported
• Economy: National and agri-food system GDP
• Population: Household incomes, poverty, and food
security (i.e., hunger and diet quality)
• What is the share of the affected commodities in
total trade?
• How important are imports in local markets and
across supply chains?
• Are commodities a large part of consumer baskets?
• How much fertilizer was used before the crisis, and
how sensitive is fertilizer demand to rising prices?
• Peak changes in world prices for food, fuels and fertilizers
(i.e., June 2021 to April 2022 | note that food and fertilizer prices in
July 2022 were at pre-war levels, but still higher than in mid-2021)
• Effect of higher fertilizer prices on fertilizer use in the
current cropping season (≈ 1-year time horizon)
4. Results: August 22, 2022
Economy | Agri-Food Systems Adversely Affected
• Size of economic impacts vary widely
• Total GDP falls modestly in most countries but remains
largely unchanged in some cases (e.g., Egypt)
• Agri-food system GDP generally falls more than total
GDP
• Drivers of economic losses differ across sectors:
• Rising world fuel prices are (typically) the main
contributor to falling national GDP
• Fuel imports are often countries’ largest import
• Increase trade and transport costs for all products
• Higher fertilizer prices and falling fertilizer demand drive
most agri-food system GDP losses
• Raises production costs and reduces productivity
• World food price changes also have larger implications
for agri-food system GDP
Impact of world price changes on national and agri-food GDP (%)
-0.3%
-1.1%
-0.4%
0.0%
-1.0%
-0.5%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-1.4%
-3.5%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-0.5%
-2.5%
-0.7%
-1.3%
-0.2%
-0.8%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
National GDP
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
-2.3%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-0.7%
-1.2%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-1.1%
-4.1%
-0.4%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-1.5%
-4.2%
-0.6%
-0.8%
0.0%
-0.4%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Agri-food system GDP
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
5. Results: August 22, 2022
Incomes | Large Impacts on Households
• Household consumption (proxy for income) falls by more than GDP
• Households are hit twice: rising consumer prices and falling incomes
• Food expenditure accounts for a much larger share of household
consumption than food production accounts for GDP
• Consumption falls for both rural and urban households
• Higher fertilizer prices affect rural households more, by reducing
agricultural production/incomes
• Fuel prices affect nonagricultural sectors and urban households more
Impact of world price changes on
household consumption (%)
Contribution of world price changes to average
changes in household consumption (%)
Note: Unweighted average across countries
20%
30%
50%
All households
17%
39%
44%
Rural households
23%
18%
59%
Urban households
Food prices
Fertilizer prices
Fuel prices
-4.7%
-4.3%
-2.6%
-0.9%
-3.1%
-1.2%
-2.6%
-4.3%
-5.8%
-9.8%
-1.2%
-1.7%
-3.9%
-2.7%
-6.0%
-4.2%
-3.3%
-1.2%
-2.4%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
6. Results: August 22, 2022
72%
28%
National
3.3%
2.4%
1.3%
1.8%
3.2%
0.6%
2.6%
3.3%
2.4%
7.6%
0.9%
0.9%
4.5%
2.3%
3.8%
2.6%
2.1%
0.9%
0.9%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
Poverty | Poor Population Expands
• Poverty increases in all countries ($1.90 a day poverty line)
• Additional 27.2 million poor people across the 19 countries
• Most people falling into poverty are in rural areas (i.e., 72%)
• Rural populations are larger than urban populations
• Larger increase in rural poverty headcount rate (i.e., average 2.4 vs. 1.6 %-points)
• Higher fertilizer prices drive most of the increase in rural poverty,
whereas rising fuel prices drive urban poverty
Impact of world price changes on national
poverty headcount rate (%-point)
Contribution of world price changes to increase in
rural or urban poor population (1000s people)
Urban
Increase in poor
population
Note: Unweighted average across countries
Rural
7,358
9,798
10,034
National
4,962
7,978
6,739
Rural
2,462
1,780
3,268
Urban
Food prices
Fertilizer prices
Fuel prices
Increase in poor
population (1000s)
1,783
1,272
2,441
485
419
1,241
388
159
209
390
1,118
1,832
3,568
153
1,411
702
442
5,078
4,100
7. Results: August 22, 2022
66%
34%
National
3.2%
1.3%
1.2%
1.8%
2.1%
0.3%
2.0%
1.2%
2.5%
2.0%
0.4%
1.9%
1.5%
1.4%
4.4%
0.7%
1.9%
1.1%
0.9%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
Food Security | Hunger Becomes More Pervasive
• Number of undernourished people rises in all countries
• Additional 22.2 million undernourished people across the 19 countries
• Rising food prices are far more important in driving undernourishment
than there are in causing the increase in poverty
• Food prices are the largest driver of rising undernourishment in urban areas
• Fertilizer prices are equally important for poverty and hunger, but this is due
to rural areas, where they cause farm incomes and consumption to fall
Impact of world price changes on
prevalence of undernourishment (%-point)
Note: Unweighted average across countries
Contribution of world price changes to increase in rural
or urban undernourished population (1000s people)
Urban
Increase in undernourished
population
Rural
Note: Calibrated to FAO’s 2019 PoU indicator
Increase in
undernourished
population (1000s)
3,906
427
1,462
555
108
1,126
492
157
97
214
1,048
1,901
2,309
75
1,076
250
456
5,288
1,313
6,007
6,471
2,292
Rural
5,104
1,509
879
Urban
Food prices
Fertilizer prices
Fuel prices
11,108
7,988
3,166
National
8. Results: August 22, 2022
70%
30%
National
7.5%
3.3%
1.3%
13.0%
1.7%
0.9%
3.0%
0.2%
0.4%
11.8%
0.7%
4.5%
6.1%
0.6%
3.8%
5.5%
1.6%
0.2%
0.3%
Bangladesh
Cambodia
DRC
Egypt
Ethiopia
Ghana
Kenya
Mali
Malawi
Myanmar
Niger
Nigeria
Nepal
Philippines
Rwanda
Senegal
Tanzania
Uganda
Zambia
Food prices Fertilizer prices Fuel prices
Food Security | Diet Quality Deteriorates
• “Diet quality” is based on whether a household’s consumption meets the
recommended levels for six major food groups (i.e., EAT-Lancet)
• World price shocks cause diet quality to worsen for lower-income households
(i.e., people in bottom three income quintiles become deprived in at least one more food group)
• 50.4 million people across the 19 countries
• Smaller impacts in lower-income countries, where diets quality was already low
• Higher food prices drive most of the deterioration in diets
• Higher edible oil and cereal prices increase the cost of a healthy diet
Lower-income population with
worsening diets – now deprived in at
least one additional food group (%)
Note: Unweighted average across countries
Contribution of world price changes to increase in rural
or urban diet deprivation (1000s people)
Urban
Increase in population with
deteriorating diets
Rural
25,526
7,493
2,335
Rural
12,790
1,602 687
Urban
Food prices
Fertilizer prices
Fuel prices
38,265
9,127
3,042
National
Population with
deteriorating diets
(1000s)
8,350
1,730
589
476
881
912
72
45
178
533
1,159
13,510
1,915
273
1,641
49
72
11,700
6,348
9. Results: August 22, 2022
Moving to Policy Response
• Phase 1
• A few more developing countries being added
• Validating/revising with IFPRI country programs and partners
• Phase 2
• Engaging governments and other partners on potential
policy responses (e.g., food tax relief, fertilizer subsidies, fertilizer use
efficiency, fertilizer supply chain development, social protection, etc.)
• Learning so far
• Focus work on policy responses in countries that are most
vulnerable (e.g., large increases in poor population, higher fertilizer use,
dependence on wheat and edible oil imports, etc.)
• Food and fertilizer shocks are most important for poverty
and food security, but their relative importance varies and,
thus, so should country policy responses
• Need to better identify the most affected populations, to
ensure they are covered by policy responses (e.g., fertilizer use
was already low amongst the poorest farmers)
Combined impacts across the 19 countries
Poor population increases
by 27 million people
Undernourished
population increases
by 22 million people
Diet quality deteriorates
for 50 million lower-
income people
7,358
9,798
10,034
Food prices
Fertilizer prices
Fuel prices
11,108
7,988
3,166
38,265
9,127
3,042
10. Results: Aug 22, 2022
Acknowledgements
Funding: This research and seminar were made possible through support provided by the Office of Policy, Analysis and Engagement, Bureau for Resilience and Food Security, U.S. Agency
for International Development (USAID), under the terms of the Strengthen Evidence-based Policy Making in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (IFPRI/ReSAKSS) Award # AID-BFS-
I0-17-00001 and the Policy, Evidence, Analytics, Research and Learning (PEARL) Award# 720RFS22IO00003. Joint funding was also received from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
(BMGF), the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), and the donor group funding the CGIAR’s Foresight and Metrics, and National Policies and Strategies
initiatives. The opinions expressed in this seminar are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of BMGF, CGIAR, FCDO or USAID.
Country researchers:
• Kibrom Abay (Egypt)
• Fadi Abdelradi (Egypt)
• Kwaw Andam (Nigeria)
• Seth Asante (Ghana)
• Gilberthe Benimana (Rwanda)
• Clemens Breisinger (Egypt, Kenya)
• Antony Chapoto (Zambia)
• Barun Deb Pal (India)
• Jan Duchoslav (Malawi)
• Mia Ellis (Cambodia, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia)
• Mekamu Kedir Jemal (Ethiopia)
• Kristi Mahrt (Myanmar)
• Juneweenex Mbuthia (Kenya)
• Bart Minten (Myanmar)
• Serge Mugabo (Rwanda)
• Edwin Ombui Oseko (Kenya)
• Lensa Omune (Kenya)
• Karl Pauw (Cambodia, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Ghana, Malawi, Myanmar, Philippines, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia)
• Josee Randriamamonjy (D.R. Congo, Egypt, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Senegal)
• Pranav Patil (Ghana)
• Angga Pradesha (Kenya, Nigeria, Philippines)
• Mariam Raouf (Egypt)
• Gracie Rosenbach (Rwanda)
• Jenny Smart (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda,
Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia)
• David Spielman (Rwanda)
• Mitelo Subakanya (Zambia)
• Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse (Ethiopia)
• Hiroyuki Takeshima (Nepal)
• John Ulimwengu (D.R. Congo)