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An Ageing World – what does
it mean for us?
1
26 October 2016
Lord Geoffrey Filkin
Chair, Centre for Ageing Better
An ageing world: more older people
2
230 million more people aged 65+ by 2025
60% increase in people aged 65+ by 2030
Three times as many people aged 80+ by 2050
Europe oldest; Latin America ageing fast; Africa slowest
Asia the oldest - with 55% of the world’s 65+ population
World population aged 65+ (%), 2015
3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
World population aged 65+ (%), 2050
4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
An ageing world: longer lives
5
Globally, we are now living 35 years longer, on average, than in 1970
Since 1970, life expectancy has increased by 30 years in Asia; 10 years in Africa
From 2013 to 2045, Asia’s median age will increase by 9.5 years; Africa’s by 5
years
Great opportunities
6
Extra years present a great opportunity
But there are big variations in later life well-being. For example:
 People unhappier in Soviet Union/E. Europe
 Happier in Latin America and richer English speaking nations
What can we do to enjoy our longer lives?
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
A social revolution
7
A massive change to the world is creating very different societies
 Caused by smaller families and later deaths
 So we have more older and fewer young people
Affects all countries and all people though the rate of change varies
What makes for a good later life?
8
In the UK the evidence shows that a good later life depends on:
Enough money
Good enough health
Social relations
Meaning and purpose
A home and neighbourhood that supports us
Are these the main factors in your country?
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
How to prepare for a longer life?
9
Enough income - public pensions may be limited
Many will need to work for longer and save more
Try to keep healthy
Have meaning
Be socially active
Prepare with families for later frailer years
But, we are not good at doing these!
Disabilities in later life
10
Rates of disability and of long term conditions increase with age
Hence, we will see an increased prevalence of, for example:
 Deafness
 Dementia
 Diabetes
 Hypertension
 Cancer
 Frailty
Therefore, there will be an increased need for social care
Disabilities in later life
11
Governments need to assess potential growth of disabilities and
address four key issues:
Prevention – healthy lifestyles, less pollution
Help people help themselves – lifestyle choices, planning
Develop home-centred support
Re-shape health and care services for chronic illnesses
These changes and challenges will be with us for decades
Fiscal challenges for government
12
Source: OECD Demographic and Labour Force database
Older population will
grow twice as fast as
working age population
More demand for
health, pensions and
support for people with
disabilities
But fewer in work,
relatively – so lower tax
revenues!
A two-fold fiscal
challenge
Number of people aged 65+ as % of labour force (15 to 64 years)
What should governments do?
13
Assess what is happening now and in 10 and 20 years’ time
Consider social changes – family centred support?
Countries have different welfare traditions
Governments cannot do it all but can do much
What should governments do?
14
Governments cannot do it all but they can:
Have a plan and a vision for their aging society
Promote the benefits of a longer life
Encourage later working and saving
Reduce smoking, obesity, poor diet, smoke pollution
Re-shape health systems
Review welfare settlement for rising demands
How can we enjoy our longer lives?
15
It’s a lifetime goal
Work later, if you can, 30% do in Latin America, Asia and Africa
Save more - over a lifetime
Live a healthy life - avoid smoking, obesity, inactivity
Keep good social relations and a purpose to life
Live in a home suitable for our later years
Plan, prepare, discuss in the family
How can we enjoy our longer lives?
16
Great opportunities from longer lives, even with disabilities
We do not need to be rich or in perfect health to be happy!
References
17
Most data in this speech is from:
An Ageing World: 2015 - US Departments of Commerce, Health and
Human Sciences.
Ready for Ageing? - 2013 House of Lords. The Filkin report.
Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views
and experiences of people aged 50 and over
About the Centre for Ageing Better
18
An independent charitable foundation launched
in January 2015 supported by the Government
We work for a society in which everybody
enjoys a good later life.
Secured a 10 year endowment from
the Big Lottery Fund.
We are part of the What Works network.
Our goal is to drive evidence-based change
for better later lives.
Contact
Centre for Ageing Better
Angel Building, Level 3
407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD
020 3829 0113
ageing-better.org.uk
Registered Company Number: 8838490 & Charity Registration Number: 1160741 19
Geoff Filkin
Geoff.filkin@agebetter.org.uk

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An Ageing World - what does it mean for us?

  • 1. An Ageing World – what does it mean for us? 1 26 October 2016 Lord Geoffrey Filkin Chair, Centre for Ageing Better
  • 2. An ageing world: more older people 2 230 million more people aged 65+ by 2025 60% increase in people aged 65+ by 2030 Three times as many people aged 80+ by 2050 Europe oldest; Latin America ageing fast; Africa slowest Asia the oldest - with 55% of the world’s 65+ population
  • 3. World population aged 65+ (%), 2015 3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
  • 4. World population aged 65+ (%), 2050 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2013,2014; International Data Base, U.S. population projection
  • 5. An ageing world: longer lives 5 Globally, we are now living 35 years longer, on average, than in 1970 Since 1970, life expectancy has increased by 30 years in Asia; 10 years in Africa From 2013 to 2045, Asia’s median age will increase by 9.5 years; Africa’s by 5 years
  • 6. Great opportunities 6 Extra years present a great opportunity But there are big variations in later life well-being. For example:  People unhappier in Soviet Union/E. Europe  Happier in Latin America and richer English speaking nations What can we do to enjoy our longer lives? Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
  • 7. A social revolution 7 A massive change to the world is creating very different societies  Caused by smaller families and later deaths  So we have more older and fewer young people Affects all countries and all people though the rate of change varies
  • 8. What makes for a good later life? 8 In the UK the evidence shows that a good later life depends on: Enough money Good enough health Social relations Meaning and purpose A home and neighbourhood that supports us Are these the main factors in your country? Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
  • 9. How to prepare for a longer life? 9 Enough income - public pensions may be limited Many will need to work for longer and save more Try to keep healthy Have meaning Be socially active Prepare with families for later frailer years But, we are not good at doing these!
  • 10. Disabilities in later life 10 Rates of disability and of long term conditions increase with age Hence, we will see an increased prevalence of, for example:  Deafness  Dementia  Diabetes  Hypertension  Cancer  Frailty Therefore, there will be an increased need for social care
  • 11. Disabilities in later life 11 Governments need to assess potential growth of disabilities and address four key issues: Prevention – healthy lifestyles, less pollution Help people help themselves – lifestyle choices, planning Develop home-centred support Re-shape health and care services for chronic illnesses These changes and challenges will be with us for decades
  • 12. Fiscal challenges for government 12 Source: OECD Demographic and Labour Force database Older population will grow twice as fast as working age population More demand for health, pensions and support for people with disabilities But fewer in work, relatively – so lower tax revenues! A two-fold fiscal challenge Number of people aged 65+ as % of labour force (15 to 64 years)
  • 13. What should governments do? 13 Assess what is happening now and in 10 and 20 years’ time Consider social changes – family centred support? Countries have different welfare traditions Governments cannot do it all but can do much
  • 14. What should governments do? 14 Governments cannot do it all but they can: Have a plan and a vision for their aging society Promote the benefits of a longer life Encourage later working and saving Reduce smoking, obesity, poor diet, smoke pollution Re-shape health systems Review welfare settlement for rising demands
  • 15. How can we enjoy our longer lives? 15 It’s a lifetime goal Work later, if you can, 30% do in Latin America, Asia and Africa Save more - over a lifetime Live a healthy life - avoid smoking, obesity, inactivity Keep good social relations and a purpose to life Live in a home suitable for our later years Plan, prepare, discuss in the family
  • 16. How can we enjoy our longer lives? 16 Great opportunities from longer lives, even with disabilities We do not need to be rich or in perfect health to be happy!
  • 17. References 17 Most data in this speech is from: An Ageing World: 2015 - US Departments of Commerce, Health and Human Sciences. Ready for Ageing? - 2013 House of Lords. The Filkin report. Centre for Ageing Better: Later life in 2015: An analysis of the views and experiences of people aged 50 and over
  • 18. About the Centre for Ageing Better 18 An independent charitable foundation launched in January 2015 supported by the Government We work for a society in which everybody enjoys a good later life. Secured a 10 year endowment from the Big Lottery Fund. We are part of the What Works network. Our goal is to drive evidence-based change for better later lives.
  • 19. Contact Centre for Ageing Better Angel Building, Level 3 407 St John Street, London EC1V 4AD 020 3829 0113 ageing-better.org.uk Registered Company Number: 8838490 & Charity Registration Number: 1160741 19 Geoff Filkin Geoff.filkin@agebetter.org.uk

Notas do Editor

  1. Globally, we are now living 35 years longer, on average, than in 1970 Life expectancy has increased by 30 years in Asia; only 10 years in Africa Mortality and life expectancy varies greatly by level of economic development, region and social class