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Epic research daily agri report 27th june 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
27 June 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
JUL 8160 8220 8124 8154 -0.46 10275
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
8112
SUPP. 2
8070
PIVOT
8166
Turmeric short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
8208
RES. 2
8262
CORIANDER
JULY 7260 7298 7215 7251 0.00 3880
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7211
SUPP. 2
7172
PIVOT
7255
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7294
RES. 2
7338
GUARGUM
JUL 5450 5490 5350 5420 -0.46 10275
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
5350
SUPP. 2
5280
PIVOT
5420
Guargum short term
trend is bearish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
5490
RES. 2
5560
CASTORSEED
- - - - - - -
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP. 1
-
SUPP. 2
-
PIVOT
-
-
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
-
RES. 2
-
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED - - -
CHANA 7040 6972 +0.98
CORIANDER 7251 7251 0.00
GUARGUM 5420 5480 -1.09
JEERA 17640 17670 -0.17
MUSTARD
SEED
4703 4709 -0.13
SOYABEAN 3805 3812 -0.18
TURMERIC 8154 8192 -0.46
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
TURMERIC 20-07-2016 8154.00 -22.00 -0.27%
SOY BEAN 20-07-2016 3805.00 -8.00 -0.21%
JEERA 20-07-2016 17640.00 -20.00 -0.11%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
BARLEY 20-07-2016 1582.00 8.00 0.51%
REF SOYA OIL 20-07-2016 643.65 0.80 0.12%
CORIANDER 20-07-2016 7251.00 1.00 0.01%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
Policy makers and agricultural experts are not too sure whom to trust
when it comes to weather and this is hampering them from taking the right
decision on planting, especially cotton crop.While some of them rely on
forecasts by the India Metereological department, others seek inputs from
public and private agencies to decide on sowing patterns.Based on the
forecast of a dry spell of about 10-15 days in July in central India, Nagpur-
based Central Institute of Cotton Research (CICR) has advised farmers to
complete cotton sowing by June end to avoid resowing. Though India is
the top exporter of cotton in the world, large tracts of cotton acreage are
dependent on monsoons for irrigation. Cotton seeds being expensive, the
stakes are high for cotton farmers."We use forecast of 4-5 different
agencies, including public and private ones. We also use the 90-day
forecast given by one private agency," said Keshav Kranthi, director,
CICR. A CICR advisory issued for June 13-19 for Gujarat states, "A
prolonged dry spell is expected in Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Patan and
Mehsana districts from the third mers to follow advisories based only on
the IMD's forecast."We want farmers to base their decisions on forecast
from only the official agencies,"said an official.The experimental forecast
by Pune-based Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology too shows some
decrease in rainfall in central India in July. "As of now, we can give
predictions for the next 20 days. A clear picture on the July rainfall will be
possible towards June-end. We have forecast above normal rains for
July,"said DS Pai, head (long range forecasting), IMD.Monsoon is likely to
withdraw from India later than usual this year, with a vigorous spell of
rains towards the tail end of the season that typically ends in September,
the chief of the weather office said on Friday.The deficiency in June rains
will also narrow in the days the come, Laxman Singh Rathore told ."There
is a strong possibility that the terminal phase will be wetter and the
withdrawal will be later than normal," Rathore said.Monsoon rains, vital
for India's farm-dependent economy and its 1.3 billion people, arrive at the
southern coast of Kerala state by June 1 and start retreating by September
from the western state of Rajasthan.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up on anticipation of improved export
demand in coming months. Further, lower arrival of cumin in the spot
market is mainly due to lower crop this season and farmer's
engagement with kharif crop cultivation too fuelled the uptrend.
Exporters reported active in the domestic market. Export demand
reported as compared to last year in the spot market due to good quality
supply. During the week period Jeera export reports 2348 tonnes.
According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during 2015-
16 (Apr-Feb) surged to 93,539 tonnes compared to 1.56 lt exported last
year same period.The exports for 2015-16 declined compared to last
year. As per third advance estimate of Gujarat State for 2015-16,
production is pegged at 2.13 lt higher by about 7% forecasted in
revised fourth advance estimate of 1.97 lt. In 2013-14, production was
3.46 lt. Industrial buyers have already sourced sufficient quantity for
the domestic requirements but the export demand may pick up as prices
have been going down since last one month. In the next few months,
the prices will depend on export demand.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled up on expectation of weak supplies in
the physical market. Though, some gains were capped on lack of
upcountry demand. Good sowing progress in Karnataka and Tamilnadu
may pressurize prices in coming weeks. The prices may be range
bound to higher on reports of forecast of above normal rains in turmeric
growing area in south India.Turmeric arrivals have been higher in
February, March and April compared to last year but the arrivals have
slowed in May as per data. However, the arrivals are higher by 105% in
May 2016 compared to last year same month. As per dept of commerce
data, turmeric exports in 2015-16 are pegged at 85,426 tonnes while the
export for the 2014-15 was 90,738 tonnes for the same period.
Producers are releasing their lower or medium grade Turmeric and
holding premium quality in the anticipation of better return ahead on
anticipation of some weather disturbances in the coming monsoon.
Spot turmeric prices at Erode markets were up Rs. 100 a quintal.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Chana
CHANA PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKETNational Market Update
In order to curb down prices and to maintain regular supply of pulses,
Haryana government lowers down stock limit of pulses for traders, dealers and
millers. Stock limit for wholesalers, distributing agents and selling agents has
been reduced to 150 quintals from 250 and for retailers it has been reduced to
15 quintals from 25 quintals. Millers would be able to keep only 1/24th of
total annual milling done for raw material and 1/48th of total annual milling
done for finished goods.
According to IBIS (provisional data), import of pulses in the week (13 June-
19 June) was around 105 Thousand tonnes at major ports in India, around 72%
higher than previous week’s (06 June-12 June) import of 61 Thousand tonnes.
Chickpea, Kidney Bean, Black Matpe, Lentil, Pigeon Pea and Yellow Pea
were imported higher this week whereas Green Pea, Cow Pea, and Green
Gram were imported lower as compared to last week.
According to IBIS, India green pea imports were around 5.08 Thousand MT
tonnes in the week (13 June-19 June) which is around 12% lower than last
week (06 June-12 June).Last week it was 5.75 Thousand MT. Canada exported
around 2.81 thousand MT at an average price of $ 402.06 Cif per tonne. At
present Green Pea price in Mumbai market is going around Rs 3100-3200 per
quintal.
According to the latest report of Andhra Pradesh agriculture department,
pulses Kharif sowing is at 0.09 Lakh Ha which is around 200% higher than
last year as on date(15 June 2016) .Last year it was 0.03 at the same period.
Sowing area of urad and moong has sown considerable increase in area due to
higher prevailing market price and favorable weather condition.
CENTER 24-Jun-16 23-May-16 Change
AHMEDNAGAR 6800 6700 +100
ALWAR 6800 6750 +50
GWALIOR 6800 6700 +100
JAIPUR 7200 7100 +100
KANPUR 7200 7000 +200
NAGPUR 6800 6800 UNCH
VIJAYWADA 7200 7200 UNCH
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JULY BELOW 7205 TARGET 7160 7060 SL
ABOVE 7270
SELL GUARGUM JULY BELOW 5480 TARGET 5430 5360 SL
ABOVE 5540
SELL TURMERIC JULY BELOW 8150 TARGET 8106 8046 SL
ABOVE 8210
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